Option/Arbitration decisions for 2019

[adambr2]

Here would be my decisions on upcoming arbitration and options, what would yours be? All my arbitration offers are just rough estimates.

 

 

Jeffress: Exercise for $3.175M

This one is a complete no-brainer.

 

Knebel: Offer arbitration for $3.9M

It's less of a no-brainer, but you still do it because of what he can bring when he's at his best. Hopefully, he'll get back there in 2019.

 

Soria: Buy out option for $1M

Soria will be missed, but the pen is fairly deep to where I think we'll pass on a pretty heavy one year investment.

 

Cedeno: Offer arbitration for $2.1M

I like having the option to bring back a pretty good LOOGY, (.582 OPS against for his career), and after our struggles to find a decent LOOGY, I see no reason not to.

 

Jennings: Non-tender

Unfortunately, this LOOGY has struggled in some big spots this year and hasn't really profiled as a LOOGY at all until this season. It's not that he's been bad, but arguably not good enough to justify paying him in arbitration. Cedeno has made Jennings replaceable, and much like with Hughes this season I think they'll simply look to move on and hopefully improve that spot.

 

Lyles: Buy out option for $250K

Even for a modest $1M salary, no real reason to have him taking up a roster spot next year.

 

Davies: Offer arbitration for $3.7M

I put Davies down for the same amount that Nelson made as a first year arby. He's still worth the cost and hopefully both stay healthy next year.

 

Nelson: Offer arbitration for $3.7M

Nelson will be an interesting arbitration case after a completely lost season. Since his body of work remains the same going into 2019, I put him down for the same salary.

 

Santana: Offer arbitration for $2.5M

It's been a disappointing season for Domingo, but at what should be a modest first year arby price, he's still worth taking a rebound shot on.

 

Shaw: Offer arbitration for $4.25M

Shaw will be an easy call and probably make a decent first year arbitration salary.

 

Moustakas: Pick up option for $15M

For a 1 year contract, I think the Brewers would take a shot at having the depth they have now once again. I expect Moose to make it a moot point and decline his end in search of a multi year deal.

 

Perez: Offer arbitration for $2.9M

While Perez may not be anyone's favorite player, his versatility and ability vs. LHP makes him a pretty decent asset to keep around for under $3M.

 

Saladino: Non-tender

Saladino is arbitration eligible, and with Perez on the roster there's really no reason to pay Tyler in arbitration.

 

Schoop: Offer arbitration for $9.8M

Some aren't going to like this, but I expect they'll do it. At the end of the day it's still an affordable one year contract and really bridges the tap to Hiura while we hope to get 2017 Schoop back.

[MrTPlush]

I don't think there is any chance they would keep both Moose and Schoop if given the option. $25mil for them? Ummm, no.

[adambr2]

I don't think there is any chance they would keep both Moose and Schoop if given the option. $25mil for them? Ummm, no.

 

Like I said I think Moose will decline and make it a moot point anyway, but if he accepted yes I think they would find a way to make it work, whether it be a trade or whatever else.

[tmwiese55]

I'd guess they don't pay up 10 mil for Soria as well just on the nature of how fluky relief pitching is. However, it wouldn't surprise me if they did just pay it with the logic being they'll likely be looking to acquire someone like him at the deadline (if contending) anyway who will cost several million so maybe pay a bit more and have the guy the whole year. Maybe they could negotiate a compromise though for a few million less.

 

Have to think Moose is gone as he'll opt out. They'll keep Schoop. Agree on pretty much everything you posted though.

[Brew Crew Buster]

Considering Moose and Shaw occupy the same position, both bat left handed and profile to be similar players, I don't think it is likely they keep both of them and Schoop.

Moustakas costs more and isn't as good of a hitter as Shaw so he is likely gone.

 

I also don't see the Brewers signing Santana. I don't believe he has anyj0re options available and doesn't seem to be good as a bench bat. They may try signing him and keeping him through spring training to create some value and then trade him. But they weren't able to get value back last time.

[tmwiese55]

I think they should keep Santana but I don't know the options status and how that will play. One significant injury to any OF and he'll be playing a lot, and we know how often Braun gets

hurt. And it's not like you're going to be able to trade him for much right now

[Lathund]

The issue with Santana is indeed that I believe he won't have options remaining; would have used them in 2014, 2015 and 2018 as far as I can tell. So Brewers would be on the hook for his arbitration salary, and would need to add him to the 25-man roster to start the season in order to keep him. Whether that's a good idea or not depends on what the alternative is. If the other candidate(s) for that spot have options remaining, then tendering Santana and starting the year with him in the majors is doable, unless the money is needed elsewhere.

 

Personally I don't believe in Santana at all, as in I don't think he'll ever reach those 2017 levels of perfomance again. I wanted to trade him this time last year, before that even. Sadly there'll be even less interest this offseason I'd imagine. Perhaps the best option is to reach a reasonable agreement to avoid arbitration and judge in preseason whether he's on the right track or not. If the salary is low enough to eat if he's not good enough to be on the team, it might be the best move. But I'll maintain that if there's anything of actual value being offered in a trade DS should take it.

[Outlander]

Did not include Kratz on your list. I assume they will not offer him arbitration. Maybe give him a non roster invite and see if he makes the team out of Spring Training.

 

Vogt is also arbitration eligible but they obviously won't be offering him arbitration.

 

With Broxton spending so much time in AAA this year he won't be super 2 but do wonder what they will do with him now that he has no options.

[MrTPlush]

Domingo Santana is 110% getting arbitration offered. At worst someone would definitely acquire him and take a chance at that salary. We would probably still get something for him.

[long ball]

Jeffress: yes

 

Knebel: yes

 

Soria: buy out

 

Cedeno: yes

 

Jennings: i would lean toward yes, but after how they non-tendered hughes after he was basically the decent rubber arm last year my guess is he is non-tendered.

 

Lyles: buy out

 

Davies: yes

 

Nelson: yes

 

Santana: yes

 

Shaw: yes

 

Moustakas: I don't think they'll exercise their half of the option.

 

Perez: Given how last season's free agency went, I see not point in paying an arbitration raise for Perez when there will be plenty of utility types available for less.

 

Saladino: non-tender

 

Schoop: I definitely think they'll offer him arbitration.

 

Additional:

 

Guerra: I'd offer him arbitration. Worst case scenario they cut him during spring and only pay a portion of the salary.

 

Pina: I'd offer him arbitration, even if they want to upgrade the position or give Nottingham more PT next year Pina still has a good back up skill set

 

Broxton (assuming he has enough service time for arbitration 1): I'd offer him arbitration. He's the most likely 4th outfielder next season and he's good Cain insurance since he's fantastic in CF.

 

Kratz: non-tender. He's been pretty useful this year and from all indications the Brewers really like him, but I don't see him back next year on a major league deal.

[Roderick]

I assume they keep Schoop for the one year, if just to save face on the trade. They have the built in excuse that Hiura needs another year.

 

The net cost of Soria is $9M ($10M vs $1M buyout), I don't think we have seen enough to retain at that price.

 

The Brewers like Moustakas. That is evident. So I think they roll the dice to save the $1M buyout. And are just fine if he decides to stay for $15M. But, I assume Moustakas looks for long term deal.

 

I do think you go into the offseason with the plan to trade Thames, but I think we are lacking a LH stick if Moose and Thames are gone.

[MrTPlush]

I assume they keep Schoop for the one year, if just to save face on the trade. They have the built in excuse that Hiura needs another year.

 

He has turned it around recently. Enough where they probably bring him back because they have no other option (Hiura is not ready, that isn't an excuse). I don't see them rolling the dice on both Moustakas and Schoop...unless they trade Shaw. That's way too much money to tie up into those guys.

 

I don't see them retaining Soria. They have so much pitching depth to fill the bullpen and can get a cheaper option this winter or just wait till July again. I also don't see them commiting so much money before FA ramps up.

[OldHeidelberg]

If Moose actually did accept the option I think they would still offer Schoop arby,as others have stated they would work something out. Maybe the Mets would have interest in Shaw as part of a Syndergaard trade or something like that. I would be shocked if they let Schoop walk after giving up so much for him, 10 million on a one year deal isn't so much for the Brewers, I think they would raise payroll over what we think is their cap for a year as long as we are not talking about long term commitments.

[JohnBriggs12]

If Moose couldn't get more than a one year deal plus and option last year, what makes him think he can do better this year? He had a better 2017 than 2018 and he had to settle playing for a mere $5.5 million in 2018.

[JohnBriggs12]

Domingo Santana is 110% getting arbitration offered. At worst someone would definitely acquire him and take a chance at that salary. We would probably still get something for him.

 

If the arby figure is just $2.5 million, odds are good he'll be kept though not 100%, but he could get well over $3 million based on his 2017 and if that happens, they should pass. Santana looks to me like a one year wonder and there's still no place to play him. They've tried trading him when he was making minimum salary and coming off very good year. I don't see the market all that strong either.

[OnaBadger58]

Domingo Santana is 110% getting arbitration offered. At worst someone would definitely acquire him and take a chance at that salary. We would probably still get something for him.

 

If the arby figure is just $2.5 million, odds are good he'll be kept though not 100%, but he could get well over $3 million based on his 2017 and if that happens, they should pass. Santana looks to me like a one year wonder and there's still no place to play him. They've tried trading him when he was making minimum salary and coming off very good year. I don't see the market all that strong either.

 

Domingo will be offered no matter what. He could very well be a one year wonder, but his minor league stats and 2016-17 stats would suggest he just had a really bad year this year. His 16-17 remind me a bit of Khris Davis' numbers with the Brewers in 14-15 (Higher BA, Higher OBP, similar SLG). He isn't a world beater in the OF, but he looks like Trout on defense in comparison to Davis. Would you be willing to give up a potential talent like that because of a down year?

[KCBrewerfan34]

What would our payroll look like if we did everything the 1st poster wants. $120-130 million?

[MrTPlush]

Man Domingo Santana getting thrown under the bus after 200 ABs where he didn’t have power? He had 1000+ ABs before 2017 that showed he could be a solid MLB hitter. He is still hitting .250 this year and I think he is still an OBP machine even if that hasn’t been on display this year.

 

He had a slow April, but was great in May. In June he struggled once his playing time diminished. If we let him go there is going to be a pretty happy team to pick him up off the trash heap. That won’t happen though, we would trade him. I’m betting we would pay him $3mil to sit at AAA and wait for a major injury if we could.

[rcc]

Here would be my decisions on upcoming arbitration and options, what would yours be? All my arbitration offers are just rough estimates.

 

 

Jeffress: Exercise for $3.175M

This one is a complete no-brainer.

 

Knebel: Offer arbitration for $3.9M

It's less of a no-brainer, but you still do it because of what he can bring when he's at his best. Hopefully, he'll get back there in 2019.

 

Soria: Buy out option for $1M

Soria will be missed, but the pen is fairly deep to where I think we'll pass on a pretty heavy one year investment.

 

Cedeno: Offer arbitration for $2.1M

I like having the option to bring back a pretty good LOOGY, (.582 OPS against for his career), and after our struggles to find a decent LOOGY, I see no reason not to.

 

Jennings: Non-tender

Unfortunately, this LOOGY has struggled in some big spots this year and hasn't really profiled as a LOOGY at all until this season. It's not that he's been bad, but arguably not good enough to justify paying him in arbitration. Cedeno has made Jennings replaceable, and much like with Hughes this season I think they'll simply look to move on and hopefully improve that spot.

 

Lyles: Buy out option for $250K

Even for a modest $1M salary, no real reason to have him taking up a roster spot next year.

 

Davies: Offer arbitration for $3.7M

I put Davies down for the same amount that Nelson made as a first year arby. He's still worth the cost and hopefully both stay healthy next year.

 

Nelson: Offer arbitration for $3.7M

Nelson will be an interesting arbitration case after a completely lost season. Since his body of work remains the same going into 2019, I put him down for the same salary.

 

Santana: Offer arbitration for $2.5M

It's been a disappointing season for Domingo, but at what should be a modest first year arby price, he's still worth taking a rebound shot on.

 

Shaw: Offer arbitration for $4.25M

Shaw will be an easy call and probably make a decent first year arbitration salary.

 

Moustakas: Pick up option for $15M

For a 1 year contract, I think the Brewers would take a shot at having the depth they have now once again. I expect Moose to make it a moot point and decline his end in search of a multi year deal.

 

Perez: Offer arbitration for $2.9M

While Perez may not be anyone's favorite player, his versatility and ability vs. LHP makes him a pretty decent asset to keep around for under $3M.

 

Saladino: Non-tender

Saladino is arbitration eligible, and with Perez on the roster there's really no reason to pay Tyler in arbitration.

 

Schoop: Offer arbitration for $9.8M

Some aren't going to like this, but I expect they'll do it. At the end of the day it's still an affordable one year contract and really bridges the tap to Hiura while we hope to get 2017 Schoop back.

 

Agreed on all points. I hope Moose stays but understand why he would see what offers will be out there. If Schoop walks I wouldn't be unhappy.

[TURBO]

I can't imagine Moose staying based on his sporadic playing time. If we keep Shaw, it will be the same thing next year.

 

What would entice him to stay?

[liveforoctober]

I can't imagine Moose staying based on his sporadic playing time. If we keep Shaw, it will be the same thing next year.

 

What would entice him to stay?

 

Another chance to repeat as World Champions

[rickh150]

i believe offseason 2019 will all be about landing a top starting pitcher. The Mets are the team that lines up with us the best, I believe. We could give them young pitching and a couple good bats to balance them out and put them into contention. We also can't afford keeping this whole group together, unless we want to be paying our bench players 25 million plus.

[TURBO]

If I'm the Mets, I would deeply consider NOT trading one of Thor, deGrom, Wheeler, or Matz. Wheeler has become a true ACE this season, and Matz is finally looking at times like the guy they thought they had from the beginning. Those 4 at the top of your rotation, and healthy for a full season could do some big damage next year. They can sign some free agent bats and see what happens.

 

The only way they trade Thor, deGrom or Wheeler is if the offer is an absolute screwjob for their trading partner.

 

imo

[rickh150]

If I'm the Mets, I would deeply consider NOT trading one of Thor, deGrom, Wheeler, or Matz. Wheeler has become a true ACE this season, and Matz is finally looking at times like the guy they thought they had from the beginning. Those 4 at the top of your rotation, and healthy for a full season could do some big damage next year. They can sign some free agent bats and see what happens.

 

The only way they trade Thor, deGrom or Wheeler is if the offer is an absolute screwjob for their trading partner.

 

imo

 

Trading one (for fair market value) isn't a crazy idea.

[TURBO]

If I'm the Mets, I would deeply consider NOT trading one of Thor, deGrom, Wheeler, or Matz. Wheeler has become a true ACE this season, and Matz is finally looking at times like the guy they thought they had from the beginning. Those 4 at the top of your rotation, and healthy for a full season could do some big damage next year. They can sign some free agent bats and see what happens.

 

The only way they trade Thor, deGrom or Wheeler is if the offer is an absolute screwjob for their trading partner.

 

imo

 

Trading one (for fair market value) isn't a crazy idea.

 

Never said it was... I just think they won't, and hang onto all of them...