2004 draft recap

[colbyjack]

Just a head's up, the 2004 draft recap story is up on the homepage. Included are the '05 DFE candidates, the ones that got away, and a brief overview of the '05 draft (just yesterday the Brewers would have drafted 6th, today they're in the 4 spot).

[cressj]

Colby...great recap. It will definitely be interesting to see how the dfe's do next spring. It will also be interesting to watch the top prospects. Alex Gordon obviously fills an area of need and will be one that the Brewers will be watching.

[Al the Thinking Man]

Brian, is there any way you can clean up the way the {'} which turn into {?} on some pages, such as this? Not Patrick's fault, but it's tough to read.

[DHonks]

Outstanding recap Patrick. I am really excited about our top 4 picks as all have a chance to be special. I still believe that based on mechanics, Baker will be the most productive big leaguer of the Rice Quartet.

 

I also think it's possible for us to take a very good player in the first round next year, but also somewhat of a budget pick. I say that, because if the bonus approaches Weeks-size AND the Crew signs multiple DFE--with at least 1 or 2 in the bonus range that Parra got--then we're going to need a huge draft budget

[colbyjack]

I say that, because if the bonus approaches Weeks-size AND the Crew signs multiple DFE--with at least 1 or 2 in the bonus range that Parra got--then we're going to need a huge draft budget.

 

If the Brewers end up with the #4 overall pick, the bonus isn't going to approach Weeks territory, unless Justin Upton falls, which is highly unlikely, although anything can & will happen. The Brewers spent $2.2 million on the #5 overall pick this year, and given how signing bonuses are going down (and how the Brewers usually cooperate with the pre-determined slot values) I would expect about the same next year.

 

Are you saying you expect at least one, possibly two, of our DFE candidates to enjoy a Parra-like transformation to warrant first-round money? As much as I'd love to see that, Parra was more of an aberration than a realistic expectation. I know the Brewers are really excited about their DFE class, but they could probably sign 5-7, if not more, of those candidates for the $1.5 million Parra received.

[igor67]

I think Eveland is a more realistic comp for some of our DFE's Patrick. Dana was a guy they always wanted to sign, but got caught up in a small numbers game. Which is to say that Dana was much more valued before his college season than Manny was, but in the end both were pretty exciting prospects. Given the general Canada talent fall and the relatively high rounds some of those guys were picked I'd say that it's not all that unrealistic to expect a prospect to be in about that category of talent.

Manny still remains a rare case because his jump in value was so high not because his final pre-draft status was so high.

[colbyjack]

I agree igor, Eveland is a more realistic expectation, and that was my point. I really don't think the team has to worry about spending $1.5-$3 million on 1-2 breakthrough DFE candidates.

[DHonks]

I'm just thinking that with the shear number of DFE's, and lots of them being talented pitchers, there's a chance that 2 or 3 will add 5 mph.

[SenatorShriv]

Maybe I've missed it, but have you ever done a draft recap of drafts from 3 or 4 years ago. Everyone always says that it takes a few years to truly evaluate the draft. I think it would be really interesting to look at the 2001, 02, 03 drafts in the same way.

 

Excellent job on this years. as always, thanks for your hard work colby. I know that I sound about 1 million times more informed than I actually am because of your writing and research. Thanks!

[colbyjack]

That's a good idea SenatorShriv, and something I've been thinking about. I might tie something like that into a story to kick off my 2005 draft coverage early next year.

 

As for looking back at past draft's, while it's not quite the same thing I did a little story focusing on Sal Bando's drafts vs. Dean Taylor's a couple of years back:

 

www.brewerfan.net/ViewArt...icleId=117

[jwaltz]

Quote:

---

Brian, is there any way you can clean up the way the {'} which turn into {?} on some pages, such as this? Not Patrick's fault, but it's tough to read.

---

 

I thought it was just me. I'm glad my computer wasn't going crazy.

 

As usuall great article Patrick. Your draft articles and coverage are better than most pay sites and all other free sites.

[1992casey]

More often than not those ?s show up as the result of using curly quotes or apostrophes in a word processer. That preference has to be turned off when typing or they have to be fixed via 'find and replace' when the article is done.

[colbyjack]

Arizona State's & Tulane's recruiting classes were ranked second & fourth respectively in all of college baseball according to Baseball America. Draftees Drew Bowman & Sean Morgan both played a big part in those rankings:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...iting.html

[MassBrew]

Maybe I've missed it, but have you ever done a draft recap of drafts from 3 or 4 years ago. Everyone always says that it takes a few years to truly evaluate the draft. I think it would be really interesting to look at the 2001, 02, 03 drafts in the same way.

 

2000 was Jack Z.'s first draft with the Brewers, and it's not looking particularly rosy right now. You've got the jury still out on first rounder David Krynzel, and a potential huge value pick in 11th rounder Corey Hart. Amazingly, if both those guys are solid contributors in the future, that's got to be considered a good draft, in the zany world of post-draft analysis.

 

The only other names remaining from 2000 are 9th round Huntsville reliever Ryan Miller (injured most of last year), and 22nd round utility man Scott Candelaria (on the restricted list after voicing concerns about his status with the organization down in High Desert this summer).

 

Two high school pitchers, Gerry Oakes and in particular Matt Yeatman, got the Crew a chance to see what they had in Matt Kinney.

 

But if Krynzel and/or Hart don't produce as hoped, then that 2000 draft becomes a train wreck of Bando-esque proportions, and you're really looking for 2005/2006 help from those names.

 

www.brewerfan.net/ViewPic...;draftId=3

 

Interesting to note that 16th round local Wisconsin product Scott Roehl was lost to the University of Arkansas, and hasn't shown much toiling in relief in the Cleveland system now.

 

So if colbyjack were to analyze a year from the past, 2000 would be a great place to kick off that coverage -- hint, hint. What was Dane Artman's story, anyway?

[colbyjack]

It's on my to-do list http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

 

But really, what is there to talk about from '00? As you point out MassBrew, there isn't much to look forward to past Krynzel & Hart.

 

I still intend to look at Jack Z's first 3 years with the club, as most of the picks worth noting are well within the organization. 2001 still looks to be the cream of the crop, even with Mike Jones' injury.

 

Actually the past couple of days I have been analyzing all of the picks from the 2002 draft trying to figure out the players that attended college that will be eligible next June. Stephen Kahn was my main focus, but that reminded me just how highly touted players like Kahn, Tom Wilhelmsen, Eric Thomas, Jarrad Page, Khalid Ballouli, Tila Reynolds & even Nic Carter (his draft selection in the 4th round shouldn't have been as big of a surprise as many make it out to be) were.

[jwaltz]

Looking back at the 1998 draft, that wasn't too good. Of all the picks Nuke and Billy Hall were the only one to make the bigs. And Hall is the only one with a future in the bigs. Hall is the only thing we have left to show for that draft. That was bad. It is just sad to think on all the guys we passed on. I forgive them for selecting Gold. His stuff was great even if his arm was a ticking time bomb with a short fuse. Same with Nuke. But the rest... They should have signed a few more guys they drafted that year. Then maybe another would have beat the odds.

 

At least 2000 wasn't like 1998, although it could be if Hart or Krynzel fail.

[jwaltz]

Now I looked at 1997. That has to be one of the worst drafts ever. Only Bucky and Kyle Peterson made the majors. Bucky made it THIS YEAR WITH SEATTLE. Kyle Peterson is now a broadcaster. He never panned out. This was disgustingly bad. Horrible. Did they even scout these guys? Scouts would have noticed the problem with Kyle's delivery and might have weeded some of these stiffs out. I'm going to stop looking back on Bando drafts. It's just too depressing. It makes me want to help Sal Bando kill himself.

 

edit: If the Crew hires Kyle to be our broadcaster, it might look better. Well, it wouldn't, but we should still hire Kyle.