NL MVP Race

[nate82]

Right now 4 of the top 5 players in the NL MVP race are in the NL Central. If you are going by WAR it is Carpenter, Cain, Goldschmidt, Baez, and Yelich.

 

So if we go by the top 5 players in WAR we have the following slash lines (ave/OBP/SLG):

 

Carpenter:

.272 / .388 /.565

 

Cain:

.308 /.401 /.433

 

Goldschmidt:

.300 /.403 /.561

 

Baez:

.295 /.326 /.568

 

Yelich:

.314 /.379 /.553

 

 

Here are my rankings as of today:

 

1. Goldschmidt

2. Yelich

3. Baez

4. Carpenter

5. Cain

 

Cain goes lower because he is not hitting for enough power which I believe knocks him down some and I don't think he will get many 1st and 2nd place votes to win the MVP race. From there you have the next 4 players who are really good. Carpenter has cooled off a bit he was extremely hot from June - August. September hasn't been all that kind to him compared to those three months. I think Carpenter will get a few first and 2nd place votes.

 

Next up we have Baez who is having his worst month of the season right now and not surprisingly the Cubs are struggling a bit. If Baez catches on fire and propels the Cubs to win the NL Central he wins the MVP race if he doesn't he will finish 2nd or 3rd. Now Yelich is in the same boat as Baez if he can get the Brewers and they win the NL Central he wins the MVP race. Yelich though is hot at the right time while Baez is cold right now. Should be interesting going down the stretch but Baez has the lead for winning the NL MVP.

 

My MVP goes to Goldschmidt but I don't think he will get the votes to win it as I believe it is up to Yelich and Baez at this point. The only way Goldschmidt wins the NL MVP is if he goes on an absolute Bonds like freak show in September which he is doing with a .476 /.560 /.857 slash line in 6 games so far in September. The Dbacks also need to make the playoffs I still don't get this reasoning and it doesn't look like they will as they will have to win the NL West to make it. I believe the Cardinals will wake up again and take that final wild card spot with the Brewers or the Cubs taking the #1 wild card spot.

 

Ultimately I think Baez wins the NL MVP with Yelich or Goldschmidt coming in a close second. I just don't see either Yelich or Goldschmidt getting enough 1st and 2nd place votes to pass up Baez. Carpenter is going to get a few 1st and 2nd place votes and that is what will help Baez win the NL MVP race.

[owbc]

Great analysis. It might come down to the final week and I agree the standings will play a role. The voters love a guy that carries a team to the playoffs. The upcoming Cubs series offers Yelich an opportunity to win some votes.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Fair or not, I think with the top candidates being so close, if your team misses the playoffs, you're probably out. Also, given the whole veteran stabilizing force on a young, surprising team storyline, I wouldn't count out Freddie Freeman.

[Samurai Bucky]

This just goes to show that the season is a LONG season. Remember how Goldschmidt struggled early in the year? It wasn't small, but he was struggling mightily.

 

It goes to show that riding the daily emotional roller coaster during the season isn't a good idea...

[liveforoctober]

This just goes to show that the season is a LONG season. Remember how Goldschmidt struggled early in the year? It wasn't small, but he was struggling mightily.

 

It goes to show that riding the daily emotional roller coaster during the season isn't a good idea...

 

I'll give you the Goldschmidt example and raise you a Matt Carpenter example of the same.

[coolhandluke121]

I think a 1B should put up gaudy numbers like Pujols or be Keith Hernandez with the glove if they expect to be in contention. 1B's are supposed to mash; it's the trade-off for playing the easiest position. If 1B's are so valuable, why not just play them at other positions and have more offense? We all know why; they'd give all the offense right back to the other team. When guys like Duda, Morrison, and Reynolds can barely find a job, you can't justify giving Goldschmidt or Carpenter the MVP award. I think it's sad that it's still often a slugging award.

 

Goldschmidt and Carpenter barely have better hitting stats than Yelich or Baez in a vacuum, let alone when you consider other intangibles. I'll grant that Carpenter can play some third, but not very well...

 

Slugging is more important than average but it's not more important than OBP. Cain's .400 is still terrific, and OPS undervalues that. And since slugging is just a measure of how many bases you gained on behalf of your team, Cain's and Yelich's and Baez's ability to steal or take an extra base has to be taken into account.

 

My pick is Cain and it might not even be close. Cain is a gold glove CF, whereas Baez has mostly run up his dWAR playing 2B and is just average when playing a premium defensive position. Yelich is below average anywhere but LF, where I think he was overrated to begin with. Cain's OBP is better than Yelich's and puts Baez to shame. We've known how important OBP is for a long time, but I think we're starting to realize how important defense and speed are as well. Cain has been the NL WAR leader for position players most of the year, and even that doesn't capture his full value. The Brewers also had the best record in the NL longer than any other team this year if I'm not mistaken, and Cain has been their steadiest player.

[82brewcrew82]

Schoop, no question.

[pacopete4]

Schoop, no question.

 

It was great to see a standing ovation for him the next at bat.

[TURBO]

Schoop, no question.

 

It was great to see a standing ovation for him the next at bat.

 

I think Brewers fans want him to succeed...

 

I hope this is the start of a tremendous hot streak.

[LouisEly]

I'd put Freddie Freeman in the conversation. I think he's on par with Baez and Carpenter.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Freeman will finish in the top 5. Possibly ahead of goldschmidt if the dbacks dont make the playoffs.

[Lathund]

MVP voting is still a pretty conservative and old-fasioned affair. Home runs, RBIs, name recognition and being flashy count more than defense or getting on base, or baserunning. So I think Cain won't even be close, even when he should be. Right now I think Javier Baez would win; 30 HRs, 100 RBIs and almost .300 BA (.296) while having several highlight reel plays. Just what the voters love. Carpenter is probably second; He has the numbers, but most of all he has the narrative, for those that really follow the "most valuable" approach. His insane resurgence coinciding with the regime change, boosting the Cardinals into playoff contention when people started to count them out. Had that not coincided with a manager change, that narrative would be even stronger. Also, salsa.

 

As for Yelich, he'll win only if those two falter IMO. If he gets the 30+ HRs and 100+ RBis. I think he'll also need some separation; any situation where he's essentially tied with these bigger names (Whether they be Carpenter, Goldschmidt, Freeman, Arenado, Baez) would see him lose out.

 

Mind you, this is what I think will happen, not what I think should happen. As for the pitchers, I think that would only be a real possibility if Nola, deGrom or Scherzer had fueled a CC-esque run to the playoffs. All three teams look likely to miss out, so I think that rightly or wrongly voters will disregard them.

[Jenkins5]

If Brewers somehow knock Cubs off & win division. Yelich wins. Think that is what it will take. Voters love their big market guys.... you really need to force their hand to get votes. If you take most valuable to their team & playoff run approach, Yelich & Carpenter are the two. Brewers & Cards are not where they are today without the 2nd half surges. Yelich has been as elite as you can get for 2 straight months. He has been best player in baseball since all-star break & I don’t think it is overally close

[jjfanec]

What Yelich has going for him in the "voters love numbers" reality is the fact that he could win the batting title while hitting 30 plus home runs. If he does that and the Brewers win the division or even finish with the second best record i think he is in the top 2 or 3 for sure.

 

Yelich by the old school numbers

1st in batting average

11th in home runs

10th in RBI

14th in SB

 

By newer stats

10th in OBP

3rd in OPS

3rd in WAR (espn)

 

That is pretty impressive resume

[igor67]

Yelich also potentially benefits from having been in a different market recently(so a little bit of extra homerism), and for once the Marlins didn't sell a guy off to a traditional big market. A big series against the Cubs again could have a pretty big impact as well.

[markedman5]

Lets also remember that everyone predicted before the season that the Cubs would win the division so Baez leading them to a Division title might not be looked at as impressively as what Yelich has done for the Brewers.

 

If the numbers are close I think Yelich will get strong consideration even if the Brewers only get the wild card.

 

Also think CC has to be one of the favorites for Manager of the Year along with the guy from Atlanta.

[MrTPlush]

Christian Yelich getting a bit of love after his second cycle. I believe MLB Network was touting him as the MVP and as did Sports Illustrated.

[Roderick]

Would not having two guys (Cain, Yelich) on the same team take away votes for both? Or is that not an issue?

[tmwiese55]

Theoretically yes. But I'd guess Cain will finish something like 6th and I'd think that issue is more relevant when you have two of the top 3-4 guys. Like Boston and Cle have this year. Oddly though it kind of cancels each other out in that situation since they are the top 4 guys ( I think, I guess it's been a bit since I looked at that side).

[MrTPlush]

Would not having two guys (Cain, Yelich) on the same team take away votes for both? Or is that not an issue?

 

In a weak year for MVP candidates I think it is troublesome. Cain can easily get just as much media talk as Yelich (and often does). That hurts Yelich because he isn't the big show in town.

 

That being said it didn't hurt Braun who won it when Fielder placed #3. If anything I actually think it hurts Cain more than it will hurt Yelich.

[xisxisxis]

Yelich and Cain account for almost 50% of the Brewers offensive WAR... Both are in the discussion for MVP... The only other comparable playoff team is the Indians with Ramirez/Lindor accounting for 50% of the offense (or Red Sox driven by Betts monster season)... Imagine if the rest of the Brewers offense hadn't regressed so much - 1st in the central with a comfortable lead, best record in the NL with home field throughout the playoffs...

[Jenkins5]

Yelich in lead for batting title with .320 & leading OPS. 4 off homerun lead, 13 RBIs off the lead.is right there in every major category

[MrTPlush]

Yelich in lead for batting title with .320 & leading OPS. 4 off homerun lead, 13 RBIs off the lead.is right there in every major category

 

Shockingly betting line still has Baez as the big favorite today.

 

I think the batting title could really help his case...a lot.

[reillymcshane]

Yelich in lead for batting title with .320 & leading OPS. 4 off homerun lead, 13 RBIs off the lead.is right there in every major category

 

Shockingly betting line still has Baez as the big favorite today.

 

I think the batting title could really help his case...a lot.

I'm guessing that reflects what the fans are betting on - and Baez has the big market and well-known name - thus people are going with what they know. If any of that affects the baseball writers, who knows.

[lukevan]

Well, Yelich has Baker Mayfield's vote!