2005 top ten

[cressj]

Colby, with the Brewers free-falling, who are the top prospects in the 2005 draft?

[colbyjack]

I haven't heard/seen enough of the HS prospects to make a definitive top 10 list at this point in time. Here's BA's top 10 college/HS list after June's draft:

 

College:

1. Mike Pelfrey, rhp, Wichita State

2. Jeff Clement, c, Southern California

3. Alex Gordon, 3b, Nebraska

4. Stephen Head, 1b/lhp, Mississippi

5. John Mayberry Jr., 1b/of, Stanford

6. Tyler Greene, ss, Georgia Tech

7. Brian Bogusevic, of/lhp, Tulane

8. Mark McCormick, rhp, Baylor

9. Jed Lowrie, 2b, Stanford

10. Stephen Kahn, rhp, Loyola Marymount

 

High School:

1. Justin Upton, ss, Great Bridge HS, Chesapeake, Va.

2. Iain Sebastian, rhp/1b, Columbus HS, Columbus, Ga.

3. Miers Quigley, lhp, Roswell HS, Roswell, Ga.

4. Austin Jackson, of , Denton Ryan HS, Denton, Texas

5. Justin Bristow, ss/rhp, Mills Godwin HS, Richmond

6. Andrew McCutchen, of , Fort Meade HS, Fort Meade, Fla.

7. Eric Massingham, rhp, De La Salle HS, Benicia, Calif.

8. Bradley Clark, rhp, Sickles HS, Tampa

9. Jeremy Hellickson, rhp, Hoover HS, Des Moines

10. Zach Putnam, rhp/3b, Pioneer HS, Ann Arbor, Mich.

 

I'm sure these lists would already change significantly after all of the summer showcases & summer college leagues. One notable name missing off of the college list is Tennessee's Luke Hochevar, who I think is going to be a top 10 pick next year.

 

RHPs Mike Pelfrey, Mark McCormick & Jason Neighborgall (not listed) are all Boras clients, so like Jered Weaver & Stephen Drew this year, and like countless Boras clients before them, they could easily fall for that affiliation alone. All 3 were very talented & highly touted coming out of HS, and all 3 attended colleges because they fell in the draft due to their Boras affiliation (& Neighborgall's $3 million dollar bonus demands).

 

Like Eric Munson a few years ago, I'm not sure that Clement stays behind the plate. Tyler Greene and Alex Gordon are both very good athletes, while Mayberry played a little 3B in HS, but likely is a corner OF or 1B at the pro level. Stephen Head might have the smoothest swing in the draft. Brian Bogusevic could be next year's version of Michael Aubrey, another Tulane product.

 

And don't forget about talented players that fell in June's draft due to various reasons that will be returning to college & will be draft eligible next season. Jeff Larish, Justin Maxwell, Micah Owings & Jeremy Slayden all are talented ballplayers, and could vault back up draft lists with strong performances next spring.

 

For the prep players, after Upton, I'm intrigued by Justin Bristow who is a very talented 2-way players whose athleticism & body type has drawn comparisons to guys like Chipper Jones & Zack Greinke. At this point in time, BA seems to prefer him as a power hitting 3B down the road, while T1 likes his potential on the mound better.

 

And I believe Rickie Weeks' little brother Jemille is eligible for next year's draft. He's not nearly as refined as Upton or many of the other prep prospects, but this Weeks won't be overlooked like Rickie was coming out of HS.

 

Since there isn't any way we would have a shot at Upton, although a lot can happen between now & next June, I really like like the college guys in Gordon, Greene, Hochevar, Head, Mayberry & Clement, probably in that order.

[batman]

Thanks for the list, Patrick... you da' man, as usual.

 

Among the high school players, my very preliminary opinion is that after Upton, Iain Sebastian is the man. He's Adam Dunn-meets-Lyle Overbay as a hitter, although I have no idea how good a defender he is at first. I didn't like Miers Quigley nor Eric Massingham, both for injury-proneness concerns, while Zach Putnam was an impressive pitcher. I've only seen these guys once, and often in very limited ABs/innings, but it was better than nothing.

 

I looked up the BA college guys' adjusted NCAA stats (thanks to Craig Burley and HBT) and Jed Lowrie was the best hitter in college baseball last season. Alex Gordon ranked fifth, Stephen Head ranked 60th, John Mayberry ranked 91st, Brian Bogusevic ranked 301st, Jeff Clement ranked 339th, and Tyler Greene ranked 785th. Among pitchers, Pelfrey ranked 27th, Stephen Head ranked 65th, Brian Bogusevic ranked 109th, Stephen Kahn ranked 146th, and Mark McCormick ranked 418th.

 

Head and Bogusevic were mighty impressive last season as two-way players... Head ranked 60th as a hitter and 65th as a pitcher while Bogusevic ranked 301st and 109th, respectively.

 

I like Alex Gordon the best among the college players, but he's the only one of them that I've seen play (AFA I can remember). Jed Lowrie was an amazing hitter last year... do you know much about his defensive skills, Patrick? Same story with Gordon... is he going to stick as a third-baseman?

 

And actually now that I think about it, I saw Tyler Greene a few times and he looked very good defensively. The SEC is on FSN all the time, so that conference was the most accessible last year in terms of TV availability.

 

Anyway, thanks again Patrick for the info. It's never too early to start the draft coverage, is it? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

~Bill

[tlpc4]

Just for the sake of steal'n some haters thunder..

 

Bradley Clark is a lock. Yost will convince Melvin to select him.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[colbyjack]

I know Alex Gordon can stay at 3B, he is one heck of an overall athlete.

 

Jed Lowrie did have an amazing season last year. Sticking at 2B shouldn't be a problem at all for him, and if a team like the A's, Padres or Blue Jays were to draft him they might be tempted to try him as a SS (he did play significant time at SS last season) similar to college middle IF prospects like Aaron Hill, Khalil Greene & Russ Adams. He's not the fastest of players, but he does have good quickness and good to great overall baseball smarts. Plus, he's a switch-hitter, which is always a bonus.

 

And while we don't really have an organizational need for 1B, Stephen Head is very smooth both at the plate & on the field. Clancy may like him for his "toolshed" potential http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

 

Tyler Greene should be able to stay at SS. If not, he may hit well enough to be a 3B down the road, or even a 2B. He, like almost all of the other top college prospects available for next June, was highly thought of coming out of HS, and actually was a 2nd round pick by the Braves IIRC. Coming out of HS he was known more for his glove than his bat, but he really turned heads after his freshman season, both during the spring & the summer as he really started to drive the ball more. Having seen him, his overall tool set kind of reminds me of JJ Hardy.

 

And just so you know Bill, Georgia Tech is in the ACC. I did see several ACC & SEC games last spring though, so I hear ya' http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

[batman]

And just so you know Bill, Georgia Tech is in the ACC. I did see several ACC & SEC games last spring though, so I hear ya' http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

 

Yeah, I always mess that up... Atlanta is in the Southeast, not the Altantic Coast, so I blame the conference for false advertising. Kinda like a school from Milwaukee, WI being part of the Big East. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Thanks again for the info... you really should get paid to do this.

 

~Bill

[Katuluu]

I know Alex Gordon can stay at 3B, he is one heck of an overall athlete.

 

I completely agree. I saw him play earlier this year and was nothing but impressed by him in the field and at the plate. He's a potential stud.

[colbyjack]

Well, Stephen Drew might return to FSU:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...6drew.html

 

Baseball sources say the Diamondbacks believed they could sign Drew for somewhere between Weeks and Teixeira money.

 

I'd pass on him too with those kind of demands. Once again, I don't understand how they think they could get more money by waiting another year. And of course, it's not about the money, right?

 

In other news, Micah Owings is transferring, and the leading schools at this point in time are Texas, Tulane & ASU.

 

Jeremy Sowers signed with the Indians to a '05 deal, while LHP Mike Rozier, who seemed like a sure bet to attend UNC not only for baseball, but as a QB recruit, signed with the Red Sox for a record $1.575 million as a 12th rounder.

[MassBrew]

Because Rozier is a two-sport athlete, draft rules allow the Red Sox to spread his bonus over a five-year period.

 

Colby, what's up with this rule -- never heard of it, how does it work? I mean, Mark Rogers played hockey, perhaps not at an elite level, but perhaps a collegiate scholarship level.

[colbyjack]

The rule isn't new, the Twins handled Joe Mauer the same way a few years back, as did the D-Rays last year with Delmon Young. Actually, you hear about it once or twice a year with 2-sport athletes, as noted in the article, it makes those hefty signing bonuses a little easier to swallow.

 

How does it work? Off the top of my head I don't remember exactly, but I believe the player in question has to be more than just a 2-sport athlete, meaning they actually have to have a scholarship offer from a University to play a different sport. While Rogers could have played hockey at a collegiate scholarship level, did he actually receive a scholarship to do so?

[mothershipconnection]

I'd pass on him too with those kind of demands. Once again, I don't understand how they think they could get more money by waiting another year. And of course, it's not about the money, right?

This may sound pretty cold-hearted, but I always hope in the back of my mind that guys like that hit a wall Rick Ankiel style or get injured. When a guy is offered market value and scoffs at it, I won't feel sorry for him when he gets hurt and drops to the 5th round the next year.

[lend d money]

Yeah, I wonder what boy genius Matt Harrington is doing these days to compensate for the bonus he turned down. It takes an awful lot of hours at McDonald's to accumulate $4 million.

[950opsLHcatcher]

So...

 

Who are we picking in 10 months?

[colbyjack]

Who are we picking in 10 months?

 

Hopefully not another HS pitcher http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

 

I can tell you who were aren't picking: Mike Pelfrey, Mark McCormick & Stephen Drew. Justin Upton & Alex Gordon will likely be gone by the time we pick, unless we someone manage to get in the top 2-4 picks.

 

4 of the 5 first-round picks that Jack Z. has taken are prep players, so while I like the college talent that will be available (Hochevar, Greene, Clement, Mayberry) it's hard to see him straying from that path unless that player is too good to pass up, like Weeks was last year. With that I'll say Austin Jackson, a prep OF from Texas, a state the Brewers really haven't tapped into much. Jack Z. is still a tools-guy, and after Upton, Jackson may have the best combination of size, speed & power of any player available next June. Think Torii Hunter, as much as I hate making generic comparisons http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

[giezer007]

well upton is a lock 4 number 1 as of right know he is supose to be more advanced then wut his brother was and is also the most talented of the bunch so the crew will have eto lose a lot more games if they wanted him

[jwaltz]

Remember this time two years ago Rickie Weeks was considered the favorite to go number 1 overall. He didn't. While it certainly looks like Justin Upton is the choice right now, there is still a possibility that someone else could step up. Of course Upton could also be the guy to step up and have a prolific season the likes of which haven't been seen before.

[colbyjack]

The latest AskBA has the draft order & the updated overall top 10 draft prospects for '05:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...askba.html

 

And their top 10 at this point in time:

 

1. Justin Upton&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp ss&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Great Bridge HS, Chesapeake, Va.

2. Cameron Maybin&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp of&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp T.C. Roberson HS, Asheville, N.C.

3. Alex Gordon&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 3b&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Nebraska

4. Jeff Clement&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp c&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Southern California

5. Tyler Greene&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp ss&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Georgia Tech

6. Wade Townsend&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp rhp&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Rice

7. Luke Hochevar&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp rhp&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Tennessee

8. Mike Pelfrey&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp rhp&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Wichita State

9. Stephen Head&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp 1b/lhp&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Mississippi

10. Troy Tulowitzki&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp ss&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp Long Beach State

[Katuluu]

I really hope Gordon is there at #5.

[cressj]

I think that BA's top five match up well with Brewer needs. Upton, Maybin, Gordon, Clement, or Greene could all be great additions to the MIL organization. Something of note, I believe Greene did play some third base for Team USA. It will be another interesting draft for the Brewers.

[colbyjack]

Greene has turned into one of my favorites for next year's draft, and yes, he did play 3B for Team USA during the summer of '03. IIRC, he also was named the top prospect off of that team (if not #1 definitely #2), which included players like Weaver, Street and several other high-profile college prospects that were drafted last year.

 

He was also rated the best prospect this past summer in the Cape League, and was rated the #2 prospect overall by BA. He has hit extremely well both summers using a wood bat in the two most competitive summer leagues, so there shouldn't be any questions there. He has good range, hands, speed, and a strong throwing arm, so your options don't get much more safe as far as picks are concerned. I'd let him play SS as long as possible, even if Hardy is our SS of the future, as either one of them could move over to the hot corner and they both could have enough bat to justify the switch (not to mention forming a solid left-side of the IF defensively).

 

I've brought up before that the Brewers haven't taken a SS in the first round since Bill Spiers, after seemingly taking a SS every other year in both the 70s & 80s. Even if he can't play SS, he should be able to play just about anywhere else on the field.

[mothershipconnection]

With that I'll say Austin Jackson, a prep OF from Texas, a state the Brewers really haven't tapped into much. Jack Z. is still a tools-guy, and after Upton, Jackson may have the best combination of size, speed & power of any player available next June. Think Torii Hunter, as much as I hate making generic comparisons

As an employee of the Denton School district, I could sneak in and find more out if it looks like he may be our pick come spring. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/pimp.gif Denton Ryan has produced some pretty awesome players in the past few years. First there was Guerra who went to the Dodgers this year, and now Jackson could be a fisr rounder.

By the way, Jackson has comitted to play hoops for Georgia Tech, so he'll probably have to get the big bucks to sign.

Jackson is also a top baseball prospect who likely will be taken high in the amateur baseball draft next spring.

 

He hopes to play minor league baseball in between college basketball seasons.

[MassBrew]

Here's what Colbyjack noted when the Brewers drafted in the 2002 eighth round (and failed to sign) California HS right-hander Steven Kahn:

 

Overall a very sound high school pitching product with good stuff & a sound delivery. Didn't expect to fall this far. Good, strong, compact size with low to mid 90s fastball with the makings of a good curve & changeup. Committed to Loyola Marymount.

 

As noted here and above, now considered a first-round talent -- maybe somebody Jack Z. would draft again if he slides to Round Two:

 

mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/ml...;fext=.jsp

[Past Member]

Another player to watch who will go 1st round is Miami's SS Ryan Braun. If healthy could have a huge year. BA's freshman player of the year in 2003.

[colbyjack]

Welcome aboard Valley Ball. I have a feeling I've conversed with you before on other boards...

 

While Braun has been injured, I know scouts haven't exactly been thrilled with his limited performance with a wood bat. Like you said, he's going to have to stay healthy while having a big year to re-establish himself as one of the top college players available for next year. He actually reminds me a lot of Matt Macri. All of the tools are there, and he shows a good amount of discipline, but his future home as a pro may be at 3B, and he's going to have to hit to prove his worth there.

 

And the Hurricanes actually have two 3B prospects worth talking about between him & Gaby Sanchez.

[CarolinaTommy]

I am pretty familar with Ryan Braun, having seen him play a lot of times in the past. He can be exciting at times but he can also really look bad at the plate. He has poor swing mechanics which cause him trouble with outside breaking balls, which does not bode well for translation to the wooden bat, as colby mentions. However, I always found it peculiar that he has held good BB/K ratios despite the holes in his swing.

 

I think it will be interesting how scouts evaluate him defensively. You can make an argument for any of 3B, SS, or 2B with him. He has a strong body and good athleticism (for his size), with some good baseball actions. I'd guess he's a 2nd-4th rounder right now, but if he cleans the swing up he could go first round.