Free Agent Starting Pitchers for 2019

[SRB]

Personally I would prefer a longer contract with a lower AAV. Braun's contract will be coming off the books soon and even if Keuchel completely falls off a cliff we can absorb 1-2 of those contracts without seriously hampering things. He's only 30 and his pitching style suggests it will age better than most.

 

If it takes 5/$90 million to bring him to Milwaukee it's fine by me. Maybe 35-year-old Keuchel is not worth $16 million, but that's actually not that much money anymore and we are in a competitive window right now.

[82brewcrew82]

To be quite honest I barely even bat an eye at Milwaukee based speculation for any player at this point unless something really seems imminent. We've been down this road with Darvish and Archer last year -- can't even remember if we were connected to Arrieta or not but it would not surprise me.

 

For whatever reason, maybe in some cases to smokescreen our actual targets, we seem connected to just about everyone. Most deals that actually come to fruition aren't speculated on much in advance and when they are they come together very quickly.

I mean, speculating is fun and part of a message board of this type but this post is absolute truth. I'll believe it when I see it.

[ebmackenzie]

I mean, speculating is fun and part of a message board of this type but this post is absolute truth. I'll believe it when I see it.

 

Honestly, I think we are just the other team in any equation...solely there to drive the bidding up.

[TooLiveBrew]

Two reasons he seems like a great fit for the Brewers:

 

-Having one guy who can give you 200+ IP seems like it would have a massive impact on the effectiveness and stamina of the bullpen.

 

-The unorthodox thing about Keuchel is that he's not a strikeout machine, but inducing weak contact gels perfectly with our defense (see also: Alex Claudio)

Two reasons he's highly unlikely to be a Brewer:

 

- Scott Boras

 

- Money

[SRB]

Two reasons he seems like a great fit for the Brewers:

 

-Having one guy who can give you 200+ IP seems like it would have a massive impact on the effectiveness and stamina of the bullpen.

 

-The unorthodox thing about Keuchel is that he's not a strikeout machine, but inducing weak contact gels perfectly with our defense (see also: Alex Claudio)

Two reasons he's highly unlikely to be a Brewer:

 

- Scott Boras

 

- Money

 

It's not like Keuchel is a Harper/Machado or even Darvish tier free agent. Brewers could easily be the highest bidder if the front office really loves him like they did Cain. I don't know if they do or not.

[anglotiger]

Two reasons he seems like a great fit for the Brewers:

 

-Having one guy who can give you 200+ IP seems like it would have a massive impact on the effectiveness and stamina of the bullpen.

 

-The unorthodox thing about Keuchel is that he's not a strikeout machine, but inducing weak contact gels perfectly with our defense (see also: Alex Claudio)

Two reasons he's highly unlikely to be a Brewer:

 

- Scott Boras

 

- Money

 

The second is certainly an issue, but it's not as if Boras doesn't have a history of approaching an owner directly, circumventing the GM...

[TooLiveBrew]

Two reasons he seems like a great fit for the Brewers:

 

-Having one guy who can give you 200+ IP seems like it would have a massive impact on the effectiveness and stamina of the bullpen.

 

-The unorthodox thing about Keuchel is that he's not a strikeout machine, but inducing weak contact gels perfectly with our defense (see also: Alex Claudio)

Two reasons he's highly unlikely to be a Brewer:

 

- Scott Boras

 

- Money

 

It's not like Keuchel is a Harper/Machado or even Darvish tier free agent. Brewers could easily be the highest bidder if the front office really loves him like they did Cain. I don't know if they do or not.

Yeah I don't think your take is wrong. I just think they'll be ultimately priced out on Keuchel due to other teams' bidding, and/or the Brewers guarding against arby raises we have coming the next 4-5 seasons.

 

Great point, btw, on Keuchel generating weak contact. It's been so much fun to watch the Stearns-led Brewers find all kinds of strategic nuances & market advantages.

[mlloyd10]

Just say no to Keuchel

[mlloyd10]

Jose Urena for Ray/Brown

[Lathund]

 

Now the following post happens to be about Keuchel, but it's really more about a Keuchel-like contract and how it fits the Brewers; Keuchel simply happens to be someone likely to command a Keuchel-like contract.

 

With Soria, Moose, Schoop, Cedeño, Lyles, Jennings gone, and Domingo for Gamel, Brewers have saved quite a bit of money. The LH bats of Spangenberg and Gamel makes Thames more expendable as well. Now combine that with a deep playoff run, a new TV deal coming soon and an increase in attendance, and few long-term deals on the books; only guaranteed money beyond 2020 is Cain and Yelich. What you get is the possibility to add a long-term deal at a not-crazy AAV. 2B, C and SP are the obvious needs. 2B has an in-house candidate who will be cheap for years. While they may trade Hiura, that would also mean needing to spend on 2B in addition to whatever the C or SP they add is making. It just makes a lot more sense to me to, if you're going to spend money then spend it on SP or C and just roll with Hiura (And maybe a short-term solution there).

 

So combining those two takes, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Brewers are genuinely in for a big C or SP, and among them most likely Keuchel. And that if there's a chance to seal it with an extra year, like with Cain, it might not be a bad idea. I'm more concerned with a high AAV restricting the team in the next couple of years than I am with the total value and length, soI look more at what the AAV ends up being. However it also hinges very much on how you project Keuchel going forward. Age in itself is meaningless, it's just a proxy for other processes. Some pitch at a high level into their late 30s, some break down in their late 20s. I have no way of knowing his health, how biomechanically sound his delivery is or how he'll cope with diminishing velocity. I just don't think there should be the automatic revulsion towards signing someone through their age-35 season, it all depends on the individual case. I don't know in the case of Keuchel, but I would imagine the team has a better idea. And as with all FA deals, you're usually getting a discount at the start of the deal and pay a premium towards the end of it. Teams are correctly wary of signings players long-term into their mid 30s. But if everyone avoids it, or prices that risk too highly, then perhaps there's an inefficiency to exploit.

 

Now it could of course very well be that the idea is to spend that money on Jed Lowrie and Wade Miley instead, or something else. But I would be very surprised if the team didn't spend $10m in AAV in free agency. I think it's also fairly likely the team moves Thames and/or Anderson in order to spend even more. They could of course spend the money on players acquired in trade, but it just seems simply set up for some free agency spending to me.

[TURBO]

Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports that the Phillies to this point have been unwilling to give Dallas Keuchel the five-year contract offer he desires.

 

Patrick Corbin landed a six-year deal, but he's a year and a half younger than Keuchel and also has the higher upside, so whether Keuchel is ultimately able to get a five-year pact remains to be seen. The Rangers, Angels, Brewers and Padres are some other clubs known to have interest in the veteran left-hander.

Related: Phillies

 

Source: Jon Morosi on Twitter

Dec 28 - 9:59 AM