Free Agent Starting Pitchers for 2019

[JohnBriggs12]

I sure hope this is just kicking the tires with Happ as we reportedly look into everything. If this was our big offseason splash I would be pretty disappointed. Rather resign Miley.

 

I'd take Happ over Miley, assuming it was for no more than two years. Happ's been one of the top pitchers in the game over the last 4 seasons. He's had a 14.1 total WAR over that time. Miley had 16 very good starts as a Brewer and a very good postseason but he's one year removed from a 5.61 ERA.

[OldHeidelberg]

I sure hope this is just kicking the tires with Happ as we reportedly look into everything. If this was our big offseason splash I would be pretty disappointed. Rather resign Miley.

 

I'd take Happ over Miley, assuming it was for no more than two years. Happ's been one of the top pitchers in the game over the last 4 seasons. He's had a 14.1 total WAR over that time. Miley had 16 very good starts as a Brewer and a very good postseason but he's one year removed from a 5.61 ERA.

 

I would assume Miley would come cheaper but taking another look at Happ's stats his K/9 was pretty good last year. Still I feel like he would be a mid rotation type guy the next couple of years considering his age, I know they would probably like a southpaw in the rotation but it's possible Davies could be just as good the next couple of years and much cheaper. We have the young guys to get into the rotation as well as Nelson we hope. I guess I can see it if we deal some of the young pitchers though.

[brewmann04]

i would not mind Happ last year i wanted a splash but i learned to trust DS after he added Chacin and Miley.

[Eye Black]

Per Jeff Passan...

 

Sources: Coveted free agent starter Patrick Corbin is close to agreeing on a six-year deal. Team is unclear at the moment.

 

Per Jon Morosi...

 

Sources: Patrick Corbin signing is imminent. He will receive a 6-year contract, as @BNightengale first indicated this morning. @MLB @MLBNetwork

 

EDIT: Signing with the Nationals.

[KeithStone53151]

I'd be a bit shocked if he went anywhere besides Philly. I think it would be fun if Philly got Harper, MM, and Corbin in one offseason. Saving up all that money and using it all in one offseason. Plus taking on Segura, we could be looking at $800M of new commitments for 1 team. As fun as that is, this why the Brewers struggle to compete...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'd be a bit shocked if he went anywhere besides Philly. I think it would be fun if Philly got Harper, MM, and Corbin in one offseason. Saving up all that money and using it all in one offseason. Plus taking on Segura, we could be looking at $800M of new commitments for 1 team. As fun as that is, this why the Brewers struggle to compete...

 

Well they signed Arrieta and Santana last year, so I wouldn't say they've been pinching pennies. You're right, though. MLB continues to be a league of haves and have nots, with an occasional have not making a run into contention. Typically those have nots are eventually raided by the haves, too, in both their rosters and front offices. It'll eventually happen to the Brewers too, unfortunately.

 

Well, he's going to the Nationals. Another "have".

[SRB]

Brewers are rumored to be one of a handful of teams in on Dallas Keuchel.

 

If they can find the money I'm all for it. Keuchel is only 30 so he's unlikely to fall off a cliff in the next 4-5 years.

 

That would be a fun rotation, especially if Anderson fixes things and Nelson is halfway decent.

[Eye Black]

Brewers are rumored to be one of a handful of teams in on Dallas Keuchel.

 

If they can find the money I'm all for it. Keuchel is only 30 so he's unlikely to fall off a cliff in the next 4-5 years.

 

That would be a fun rotation, especially if Anderson fixes things and Nelson is halfway decent.

 

Here is the exact passage from Nick Cafardo’s Boston Globe Article:

 

Dallas Keuchel, LHP, free agent — It’s surprising that he remains available. The Angels, who signed Trevor Cahill and Matt Harvey this past week, may be waiting to make their biggest splash with Keuchel. They have been interested in him the entire offseason, but there’s also interest from Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Texas, among others. Keuchel is a Scott Boras client so it may take a while for the full market to develop.

[SRB]

Two reasons he seems like a great fit for the Brewers:

 

-Having one guy who can give you 200+ IP seems like it would have a massive impact on the effectiveness and stamina of the bullpen.

 

-The unorthodox thing about Keuchel is that he's not a strikeout machine, but inducing weak contact gels perfectly with our defense (see also: Alex Claudio)

[wibadgers23]

Would love to have Keuchel but I think he gets a minimum of a 4 year deal worth 15-20 million per year. I just don’t see the Brewers shelling out that kind of money at this point.

[SRB]

Would love to have Keuchel but I think he gets a minimum of a 4 year deal worth 15-20 million per year. I just don’t see the Brewers shelling out that kind of money at this point.

 

Stearns gave Cain 5/$80 million last offseason even before we came one game from the World Series, so I don't think a big deal is out of the question if they think Keuchel is an undervalued bargain

[CheeseheadInQC]

It seems like the moves thus far this offseason were freeing them up to spend all of their available budget on a lefty starter if they so chose, so this wouldn't shock me, although I fear the price tag ends up too high even for that.

[walleye]

Would love to have him , a bull pen day off type pitcher that’s for sure ,just don’t think we have the Benjamins to make it happen ,but wish we could.

[ougiqbxy]

just don’t think we have the Benjamins to make it happen

 

Maybe that's why we traded for Ben Gamel.

[brewmann04]

If they added Keuchel this would be great move for the Crew and give us a number one guy.

[reillymcshane]

So, at what point would you jump into the bidding for Keuchel? Just wondering what people think would be our threshold.

 

MLB Trade Rumors and Fangraphs each predicted Keuchel would get a (roughly) 4-year, $80M contract.

 

What do you think would be a price (in years and dollars) that Milwaukee would do to add Keuchel? Just curious what people think.

[ougiqbxy]

So, at what point would you jump into the bidding for Keuchel? Just wondering what people think would be our threshold.

 

MLB Trade Rumors and Fangraphs each predicted Keuchel would get a (roughly) 4-year, $80M contract.

 

What do you think would be a price (in years and dollars) that Milwaukee would do to add Keuchel? Just curious what people think.

 

I really wouldn't trust him getting more than 2 WAR per season, on average, over the next three years. Is it 9.5 million per war? So 3 years, $57 million with salaries declining each year to help with our young players getting increases (2019-$21 million, 2020-$19 million, 2021-$17 million) with two team options, first would be for $15 million with a $5 million buy-out and the second would be $13 million with a $3 million buy-out. So if the Brewers would be done with him after three seasons he would still receive $65 million total with a potential to have him 5 years at $85 million.

[MNBrew]

You can rationalize those numbers all you want, but Dallas Keuchel's track record counts for something and Scott Boras is his agent, the latter point there pretty much blowing any chance of Keuchel accepting an offer in that range of the water. If I'm wrong, I'll gladly eat crow. I'd think if the Brewers could add him, it would be a very positive step forward for the team (just like Kluber & Bauer).

[Eye Black]

So, at what point would you jump into the bidding for Keuchel? Just wondering what people think would be our threshold.

 

MLB Trade Rumors and Fangraphs each predicted Keuchel would get a (roughly) 4-year, $80M contract.

 

What do you think would be a price (in years and dollars) that Milwaukee would do to add Keuchel? Just curious what people think.

The Brewers are currently in a position to pay less than $40 million in salaries next year to every pitcher on their 40-man roster combined.

 

Assuming they don’t have an outright aversion to spending significant money on a free agent pitcher, I think the Brewers max offer would be south of what is being projected for Keuchel. The number of years is the hardest part to predict, but I think the Brewers would/should hold firm at a three year offer. I am less concerned about the AAV as compared to the years. I don’t think they would surpass a $20 million AAV for him, so I will say 3 years in the $54 to $60 million range (maybe a 4th year team option with a buyout of a few million) is the max the Brewers would offer. I don’t have a good sense whether that will ultimately even be a competitive offer. To this point, Keuchel has an impressive track record of maintaining consistent velocity across his pitch mix (Link to Brooks Baseball). At the same time his strikeout rate (and swinging strike rate) has dropped, and he has entered the wrong side of 30. I don’t value him as a top of the rotation starter, but even a #2-3 starter type is probably worth a nearly $20 million AAV on the open market.

[Fear The Chorizo]

So, at what point would you jump into the bidding for Keuchel? Just wondering what people think would be our threshold.

 

MLB Trade Rumors and Fangraphs each predicted Keuchel would get a (roughly) 4-year, $80M contract.

 

What do you think would be a price (in years and dollars) that Milwaukee would do to add Keuchel? Just curious what people think.

The Brewers are currently in a position to pay less than $40 million in salaries next year to every pitcher on their 40-man roster combined.

 

Assuming they don’t have an outright aversion to spending significant money on a free agent pitcher, I think the Brewers max offer would be south of what is being projected for Keuchel. The number of years is the hardest part to predict, but I think the Brewers would/should hold firm at a three year offer. I am less concerned about the AAV as compared to the years. I don’t think they would surpass a $20 million AAV for him, so I will say 3 years in the $54 to $60 million range (maybe a 4th year team option with a buyout of a few million) is the max the Brewers would offer. I don’t have a good sense whether that will ultimately even be a competitive offer. To this point, Keuchel has an impressive track record of maintaining consistent velocity across his pitch mix (Link to Brooks Baseball). At the same time his strikeout rate (and swinging strike rate) has dropped, and he has entered the wrong side of 30. I don’t value him as a top of the rotation starter, but even a #2-3 starter type is probably worth a nearly $20 million AAV on the open market.

 

What's the point of even making an offer like that, aside from the front office being able to say they at least tried? If the brewers want to stick to 3 yr offers in this market, they need to exceed the AAV over other offers that will include 4th and 5th years. I would be fine offering a pitcher of Keuchel's ability $22-24m AAV for 3 seasons, but hold firm on the contract length unless they would want to include a mutual 4th year option at $20M with a modest buyout that either party could exercise down the road.

[Eye Black]

Perusing the internet here is a collection of free agent contract predictions for Dallas Keuchel...

 

Fangraphs (Kiley McDaniel): 4 years, $84 million ($21 million AAV)

 

Fangraphs (Crowdsource Median): 4 years, $79 million ($19.8 million AAV)

 

Fangraphs (Crowdsource Average): 4.2 years, $81 million ($19.4 million AAV)

 

Jon Heyman: 5 years, $95 million ($19 million AAV)

 

Jon Heyman’s “Expert”: 5 years, $105 million ($21 million AAV)

 

MLB Trade Rumors: 4 years, $82 million ($20.5 million AAV)

 

Bleacher Report: 4 years, $84 million ($21 million AAV)

[Eye Black]

What's the point of even making an offer like that, aside from the front office being able to say they at least tried? If the brewers want to stick to 3 yr offers in this market, they need to exceed the AAV over other offers that will include 4th and 5th years. I would be fine offering a pitcher of Keuchel's ability $22-24m AAV for 3 seasons, but hold firm on the contract length unless they would want to include a mutual 4th year option at $20M with a modest buyout that either party could exercise down the road.

You are probably right on what it would ultimately take to get him to sign a three year deal, I just don’t think the Brewers would go up to a $24 million AAV for him. A mutual option with a healthy buyout could be an enticement as well like you mention.

 

A three year, $70 million contract ($23.33 AAV) would be exactly half the contract (in terms of years and money) that Patrick Corbin received.

 

The most recent comparable three year deal is probably Arrieta’s three year, $75 million deal. The more I think about it I believe Keuchel will ultimately get at least four years from someone.

[JosephC]

Of all the top free agents this off-season, I thought Keuchel had the biggest probability of landing a contract that would be less than expected.

 

For the record, I like the guy and think he's a good fit for Milwaukee because he's sits at or near the top of the ground-ball pitcher list.

 

But how attractive will he be on the market?

 

Last year his K/9 rate was 6.7. Pitch info had his average fastball at 90.2 last season, which is actually a high number for him but certainly doesn't qualify as eye-popping. Bottom line, we are in an era where the strikeout is considered king. When considering that, Keuchel isn't all that attractive as a front-line pitcher.

 

Over the last three years he has a 3.78 FIP and 106 ERA+. Not a thing wrong with those numbers, but it's certainly not Cy Young type peripherals and most big market GMs might see him as a #2- or #3+++ type starting pitcher. Last year his WHIP jumped to 1.31, the worst number he's had since 2013.

 

It's been 3 years since he's won the Cy Young and in those three seasons:

average 173 innings pitched, 3.77 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.78 WHIP, 106 ERA+, 2.7 BB/9, 7.3 K/9

 

Then there is the qualifying offer attached to him, making him a bit more unattractive.

 

I think 4 years, 72 million could end up being a more likely figure for him. But I wouldn't be shocked if it ended up being a 3 year, 60 million type deal (19 million in 2019, 19 million in 2020, 18 million in 2021...team option in 2022, 20 million with a 4 million buyout).

[adambr2]

To be quite honest I barely even bat an eye at Milwaukee based speculation for any player at this point unless something really seems imminent. We've been down this road with Darvish and Archer last year -- can't even remember if we were connected to Arrieta or not but it would not surprise me.

 

For whatever reason, maybe in some cases to smokescreen our actual targets, we seem connected to just about everyone. Most deals that actually come to fruition aren't speculated on much in advance and when they are they come together very quickly.

[ougiqbxy]

Of all the top free agents this off-season, I thought Keuchel had the biggest probability of landing a contract that would be less than expected.

 

For the record, I like the guy and think he's a good fit for Milwaukee because he's sits at or near the top of the ground-ball pitcher list.

 

But how attractive will he be on the market?

 

Last year his K/9 rate was 6.7. Pitch info had his average fastball at 90.2 last season, which is actually a high number for him but certainly doesn't qualify as eye-popping. Bottom line, we are in an era where the strikeout is considered king. When considering that, Keuchel isn't all that attractive as a front-line pitcher.

 

Over the last three years he has a 3.78 FIP and 106 ERA+. Not a thing wrong with those numbers, but it's certainly not Cy Young type peripherals and most big market GMs might see him as a #2- or #3+++ type starting pitcher. Last year his WHIP jumped to 1.31, the worst number he's had since 2013.

 

It's been 3 years since he's won the Cy Young and in those three seasons:

average 173 innings pitched, 3.77 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.78 WHIP, 106 ERA+, 2.7 BB/9, 7.3 K/9

 

Then there is the qualifying offer attached to him, making him a bit more unattractive.

 

I think 4 years, 72 million could end up being a more likely figure for him. But I wouldn't be shocked if it ended up being a 3 year, 60 million type deal (19 million in 2019, 19 million in 2020, 18 million in 2021...team option in 2022, 20 million with a 4 million buyout).

 

I agree with all of this and if you took my team option on the fourth year as guaranteed, my suggestion would have totaled 4 years, $72 million with a team option for year 5 at $13 million and a $3 million buy-out.

 

I do think any type of deal would have to frontload the contract at least a bit with de-escalating salaries through the contract.