Free Agent Starting Pitchers for 2019

[TURBO]

I don't know, the way Nelson slammed that tall boy has me thinking he might win the Cy Young next season.

He's doing his 24oz curls instead of 12oz curls. Progress. Next up is a 40oz can.

 

More impressive would be the 40 oz. bottle, more weight...

[brewcrewdue80]

With the Cubs out, Washington missing the playoffs, at what point can they sign Harper? Does FA signings happen before WSs are over? Or does it begin the day or week after it is finished?

[reillymcshane]

With the Cubs out, Washington missing the playoffs, at what point can they sign Harper? Does FA signings happen before WSs are over? Or does it begin the day or week after it is finished?

I believe free agency starts 5 days after the World Series ends.

[And That]

Slightly different way to look at this class, using 2018 DRA, xwOBA-Against, and WPA/LI. This is assuming Bumgarner/Carrasco/Kershaw/Price/Sale (options), and Morton/Iwakuma (retirement) do not become available on the open market, and also eliminates Miguel Gonzalez/Santana/Tillman due to lack of innings:

 

[pre]Name IP DRA- xwOBA-A WPA/LI

Clay Buchholz (34) 98.3 83.5 0.314 2.23

Trevor Cahill (31) 110.0 77.6 0.319 0.95

Bartolo Colon (46) 146.3 142.3 0.380 -1.51

Patrick Corbin (29) 200.0 61.3 0.294 4.61

Marco Estrada (35) 143.7 160.1 0.348 -1.90

Nathan Eovaldi (29) 111.0 72.2 0.298 0.91

Doug Fister (35) 66.0 148.7 0.371 -0.78

Jaime Garcia (32) 82.0 140.1 0.350 -0.98

Gio Gonzalez (33) 171.0 93.2 0.336 0.70

Cole Hamels (35) 190.7 100.2 0.347 -0.04

Jason Hammel (36) 127.0 139.0 0.385 -1.19

J.A. Happ (36) 177.7 87.8 0.315 1.77

Matt Harvey (30) 155.0 104.7 0.334 -0.09

Jeremy Hellickson (32) 91.3 93.6 0.331 0.98

Derek Holland (32) 171.3 85.0 0.326 0.21

Dallas Keuchel (31) 204.7 86.3 0.303 0.92

Francisco Liriano (35) 133.7 119.8 0.366 -0.83

Jordan Lyles (28) 87.7 118.1 0.308 0.16

Lance Lynn (32) 156.7 114.2 0.316 0.28

Wade Miley (32) 80.7 92.2 0.314 1.39

Matt Moore (30) 102.0 156.3 0.382 -1.84

Martin Perez (28) 85.3 163.3 0.372 -2.12

Drew Pomeranz (30) 74.0 176.4 0.384 -1.48

Garrett Richards (31) 76.3 83.4 0.324 -0.25

Tyson Ross (32) 149.7 112.5 0.339 0.83

Hyun-Jin Ryu (32) 82.3 54.7 0.283 1.43

CC Sabathia (38) 153.0 98.2 0.300 0.27

Anibal Sanchez (35) 136.7 61.5 0.285 1.85

Hector Santiago (31) 102.0 150.3 0.344 -0.43

James Shields (37) 204.7 121.6 0.364 0.23

Josh Tomlin (34) 70.3 153.5 0.395 -2.64

Adam Wainwright (37) 40.3 84.5 0.316 -0.47[/pre]

 

In general, lower DRA- is better, lower xOBA-A is better, higher WPA/LI is better. I'd rather look at 3-year stats for starters, but this is what I could do over lunch.

 

If nothing else, this tells me that retaining Lyles is pretty likely.

[Jenkins5]

Slightly different way to look at this class, using 2018 DRA, xwOBA-Against, and WPA/LI. This is assuming Bumgarner/Carrasco/Kershaw/Price/Sale (options), and Morton/Iwakuma (retirement) do not become available on the open market, and also eliminates Miguel Gonzalez/Santana/Tillman due to lack of innings:

 

[pre]Name IP DRA- xwOBA-A WPA/LI

Clay Buchholz (34) 98.3 83.5 0.314 2.23

Trevor Cahill (31) 110.0 77.6 0.319 0.95

Bartolo Colon (46) 146.3 142.3 0.380 -1.51

Patrick Corbin (29) 200.0 61.3 0.294 4.61

Marco Estrada (35) 143.7 160.1 0.348 -1.90

Nathan Eovaldi (29) 111.0 72.2 0.298 0.91

Doug Fister (35) 66.0 148.7 0.371 -0.78

Jaime Garcia (32) 82.0 140.1 0.350 -0.98

Gio Gonzalez (33) 171.0 93.2 0.336 0.70

Cole Hamels (35) 190.7 100.2 0.347 -0.04

Jason Hammel (36) 127.0 139.0 0.385 -1.19

J.A. Happ (36) 177.7 87.8 0.315 1.77

Matt Harvey (30) 155.0 104.7 0.334 -0.09

Jeremy Hellickson (32) 91.3 93.6 0.331 0.98

Derek Holland (32) 171.3 85.0 0.326 0.21

Dallas Keuchel (31) 204.7 86.3 0.303 0.92

Francisco Liriano (35) 133.7 119.8 0.366 -0.83

Jordan Lyles (28) 87.7 118.1 0.308 0.16

Lance Lynn (32) 156.7 114.2 0.316 0.28

Wade Miley (32) 80.7 92.2 0.314 1.39

Matt Moore (30) 102.0 156.3 0.382 -1.84

Martin Perez (28) 85.3 163.3 0.372 -2.12

Drew Pomeranz (30) 74.0 176.4 0.384 -1.48

Garrett Richards (31) 76.3 83.4 0.324 -0.25

Tyson Ross (32) 149.7 112.5 0.339 0.83

Hyun-Jin Ryu (32) 82.3 54.7 0.283 1.43

CC Sabathia (38) 153.0 98.2 0.300 0.27

Anibal Sanchez (35) 136.7 61.5 0.285 1.85

Hector Santiago (31) 102.0 150.3 0.344 -0.43

James Shields (37) 204.7 121.6 0.364 0.23

Josh Tomlin (34) 70.3 153.5 0.395 -2.64

Adam Wainwright (37) 40.3 84.5 0.316 -0.47[/pre]

 

In general, lower DRA- is better, lower xOBA-A is better, higher WPA/LI is better. I'd rather look at 3-year stats for starters, but this is what I could do over lunch.

 

If nothing else, this tells me that retaining Lyles is pretty likely.

 

So essentially there is Patrick Corbin on one level and all the other pitchers much further behind. He is getting a fat payday

[And That]

Yes, the time to acquire Corbin would have been last winter. If he was even available. Foresight is a lot more valuable in baseball than hindsight.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yes, the time to acquire Corbin would have been last winter. If he was even available. Foresight is a lot more valuable in baseball than hindsight.

 

I remember some scuttlebutt about the Brewers trading either Santana or Broxton for Corbin. The DBacks went is a different direction, though, trading prospects for Souza. Would have loved to have Corbin in the rotation this year.

[Lathund]

Slightly different way to look at this class, using 2018 DRA, xwOBA-Against, and WPA/LI. This is assuming Bumgarner/Carrasco/Kershaw/Price/Sale (options), and Morton/Iwakuma (retirement) do not become available on the open market, and also eliminates Miguel Gonzalez/Santana/Tillman due to lack of innings:

 

[pre]Name IP DRA- xwOBA-A WPA/LI

Clay Buchholz (34) 98.3 83.5 0.314 2.23

Trevor Cahill (31) 110.0 77.6 0.319 0.95

Bartolo Colon (46) 146.3 142.3 0.380 -1.51

Patrick Corbin (29) 200.0 61.3 0.294 4.61

Marco Estrada (35) 143.7 160.1 0.348 -1.90

Nathan Eovaldi (29) 111.0 72.2 0.298 0.91

Doug Fister (35) 66.0 148.7 0.371 -0.78

Jaime Garcia (32) 82.0 140.1 0.350 -0.98

Gio Gonzalez (33) 171.0 93.2 0.336 0.70

Cole Hamels (35) 190.7 100.2 0.347 -0.04

Jason Hammel (36) 127.0 139.0 0.385 -1.19

J.A. Happ (36) 177.7 87.8 0.315 1.77

Matt Harvey (30) 155.0 104.7 0.334 -0.09

Jeremy Hellickson (32) 91.3 93.6 0.331 0.98

Derek Holland (32) 171.3 85.0 0.326 0.21

Dallas Keuchel (31) 204.7 86.3 0.303 0.92

Francisco Liriano (35) 133.7 119.8 0.366 -0.83

Jordan Lyles (28) 87.7 118.1 0.308 0.16

Lance Lynn (32) 156.7 114.2 0.316 0.28

Wade Miley (32) 80.7 92.2 0.314 1.39

Matt Moore (30) 102.0 156.3 0.382 -1.84

Martin Perez (28) 85.3 163.3 0.372 -2.12

Drew Pomeranz (30) 74.0 176.4 0.384 -1.48

Garrett Richards (31) 76.3 83.4 0.324 -0.25

Tyson Ross (32) 149.7 112.5 0.339 0.83

Hyun-Jin Ryu (32) 82.3 54.7 0.283 1.43

CC Sabathia (38) 153.0 98.2 0.300 0.27

Anibal Sanchez (35) 136.7 61.5 0.285 1.85

Hector Santiago (31) 102.0 150.3 0.344 -0.43

James Shields (37) 204.7 121.6 0.364 0.23

Josh Tomlin (34) 70.3 153.5 0.395 -2.64

Adam Wainwright (37) 40.3 84.5 0.316 -0.47[/pre]

 

In general, lower DRA- is better, lower xOBA-A is better, higher WPA/LI is better. I'd rather look at 3-year stats for starters, but this is what I could do over lunch.

 

If nothing else, this tells me that retaining Lyles is pretty likely.

 

One interesting thing about DRA is that it can explain Oliver Drake, or more specifically why he was kept around. Now I don't imagine Brewers use DRA itself, but whatever they are using might spit out similar results. Because by DRA Drake has been good, and the team probably expected that to translate to results at some point. Guys like Soria, Cedeño and Gio also rate better at DRA than they do FIP, for instance. Jacob Barnes is another one.

 

Now there are pitchers who don't fit into that, like Jhoulys Chacin or Wade Miley, so obviously Brewers use more than one method to evaluate pitchers. But I wouldn't be surprised to see decisions on future pitching moves correlating fairly well with DRA. It'll be interesting to follow at least.

[pacopete4]

Sounds like another offseason of hoping we don’t sign a pitcher.

[clancyphile]

I'm just hoping to re-sign Miley and Gio. Maybe go for Kikuchi in place of Miley/Gio.

 

Between Davies, Anderson, Burnes, Woodruff, Chacin, two of Miley/Gio/Kikuchi, Peralta, Guerra, and Nelson there is a good set-up.

 

In the future, you have Suter (returning from TJ), Roegner, Brown, Supak, and Derby.

 

The only big FA splash I want to see is Kikuchi in place of Miley or Gio.

[pacopete4]

Ten man rotation?

[jjfanec]

This has been said by others but if we go after a starting pitcher next off-season I think it will be via trade. How many guys out there really are that much more better than what we have?

If you want injured pitchers hoping to rebound we have probably the most exciting option in Nelson and then have Davies as well.

If you want buy low guys coming off a down year we have Anderson maybe one of the best of the bunch out there.

Young guys dont hit free agency but we have Peralta, Burnes, and Woodruff who are more exciting than most of the names on that list and a lot cheaper.

That is 6 pitchers right there and obviously we still have Chacin. I could easily see Miley back on a friendly deal.

 

I would not be shocked if we traded from depth and included one of the of the young guys in the deal. I dont know the market for starting pitching. Maybe that is a new thread

[CheezWizHed]

[sarcasm]CC Sabathia and Bartolo Colon. Getting the best price per pound![/sarcasm]

[StearnBrewliever]

Sign CC if he comes cheap.

Nelson

Chacin

Burnes

CC

Peralta/Anderson/Davies

 

Woodruff has the Burnes role in the pen.

[clancyphile]

Really... re-sign one of Gio/Miley and get Kikuchi.

[Mr Southpaw]

Ten man rotation?

 

Maybe eight man rotation?

 

1.Chacin

2.Kikuchi (5/???)

3.Miley (2/12)/Burnes

4.Gio (1/6)/Woodruff

5.Nelson/Peralta

 

Pen (6 off these stay)

 

Jennings

Cedeno

Lyles

Barnes

T.Williams

Guerra

Jeffress

Hader

Knebel

 

Trade Anderson and Davies (and Albers if you can get anything for him) for A+ or AA pitching prospects

Let Soria go (cost cut).

 

Z. Brown, Derby, Hauser Diplon, Supak, Ponce at AAA

[wallus]

Ten man rotation?

 

Maybe eight man rotation?

 

1.Chacin

2.Kikuchi (5/???)

3.Miley (2/12)/Burnes

4.Gio (1/6)/Woodruff

5.Nelson/Peralta

 

Pen (6 off these stay)

 

Jennings

Cedeno

Lyles

Barnes

T.Williams

Guerra

Jeffress

Hader

Knebel

 

Trade Anderson and Davies (and Albers if you can get anything for him) for A+ or AA pitching prospects

Let Soria go (cost cut).

 

Z. Brown, Derby, Hauser Diplon, Supak, Ponce at AAA

 

If Miley and Gio sign for that little, I will start my own Eat Crow Thread.

[NievesNoNO]

I'm not super stoked about signing anybody of that group. I think there are plenty of internal options.

 

Chacin- under contract and been mostly effective

Neslon- should be back- probably with an inning restriction I suppose

Anderson- current situation aside, I don't think you can just dismiss him

Burnes- might be the ace of the team next season

Peralta- should probably included as a candidate to start next year based on what he did this season

Woodruff- Seems like he's pretty much been forgotten about, maybe his future is in the bullpen too, but I still think he has the makings of a good starter

 

But, as they say you can't have too much pitching so sign me up for Morton. He's been effective, but not all that durable and doesn't have age on his side. I think that keeps the price reasonable for somebody who when healthy has been really good the last couple years.

 

Edit- completely forgot about Davies too

[Mr Southpaw]

Ten man rotation?

 

Maybe eight man rotation?

 

1.Chacin

2.Kikuchi (5/???)

3.Miley (2/12)/Burnes

4.Gio (1/6)/Woodruff

5.Nelson/Peralta

 

Pen (6 off these stay)

 

Jennings

Cedeno

Lyles

Barnes

T.Williams

Guerra

Jeffress

Hader

Knebel

 

Trade Anderson and Davies (and Albers if you can get anything for him) for A+ or AA pitching prospects

Let Soria go (cost cut).

 

Z. Brown, Derby, Hauser Diplon, Supak, Ponce at AAA

 

If Miley and Gio sign for that little, I will start my own Eat Crow Thread.

 

Neither will get $10 mill a year, maybe $8 mill a year. Maybe we get a home team discount! Any more than I would go elsewhere or use internal options.

[ebmackenzie]

Not a starting pitcher, and relief pitchers are plenty unpredictable, but Blake Treinen is a player I would target in a trade. The A's tend to move players once they hit arbitration. Yes the Brewers' bullpen is already a strength, but I think MLB will continue to make bullpen usage a significant part of an overall pitching strategy (i.e. You can never have too many relief aces)

 

Adding Treinen to Hader, Knebel, Jeffress etc could potentially make the Brewers pitching staff better than most free agent starting pitcher acquisitions.

 

I could easily see this if Burnes and Woodruff are rotation bound/JNelson has a setback...restock the 'pen and move young, controllable talent to get more innings.

[Mudville9]

http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/10/10/chase-andersons-fatal-flaw/

 

I saw this article and thought it made a lot of sense. I'm sure someone smarter than myself can figure out some players that might fit this criteria for next year, whether "initial outgetter" or RP.

 

If we have enough bats that can play multiple positions, you could even carry an extra pitcher. I really like what they have done with moving Shaw to 1st base and Arcia to SS as defensive moves at the end of the game.

[TURBO]

CC looks done... Loved the guy, but I don't think he has anything to offer we don't already have.

[Eye Black]

I am curious to see what kind of deal J.A. Happ ultimately signs. He was outstanding with the Yankees in the second half of the season (and good with Toronto in the first half). He is a lefty that has maintained a high strikeout rate. Less appealing is the fact that he turned 36 years old last week. He is originally from Illinois, and with it likely being his last MLB contract I could see a possibility that he would value finishing his career playing for a midwestern team.

[adambr2]

http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/10/10/chase-andersons-fatal-flaw/

 

I saw this article and thought it made a lot of sense. I'm sure someone smarter than myself can figure out some players that might fit this criteria for next year, whether "initial outgetter" or RP.

 

If we have enough bats that can play multiple positions, you could even carry an extra pitcher. I really like what they have done with moving Shaw to 1st base and Arcia to SS as defensive moves at the end of the game.

 

One of the reasons I think Dubon could be a big part of the team next year. Between Dubon, Perez and Shaw, you have one guy who can play either corner OF, two guys who can play 3B, 1B, CF, and SS, and all 3 can play 2B. Really gives you the option of carrying extra pitchers or going bat heavy on the bench.

[Madhawk23]

What type of deal will Eovaldi get this offseason? I know we were looking hard at him before the Sox beat us out at the deadline. I've got to imagine that he's made himself a little bit of money this year, right? Just seems like he'd be a perfect fit as an "out-getter" for the Brewers as one of those guys that could go through a lineup once or twice with a high level of success.