Free Agent Starting Pitchers for 2019

[Eye Black]

MLB.com provided a comprehensive list of 2019 Free Agents which includes age and current 2018 WAR totals to date (Note: Fangraphs WAR).

 

Patrick Corbin (29 years old, 5.7 WAR)

 

Dallas Keuchel (31 years old, 3.4 WAR)

 

Clayton Kershaw (31 years old, 3.2 WAR) -- Can opt out of the two years and $65 million remaining on his contract.

 

Charlie Morton (35 years old, 2.9 WAR)

 

David Price (33 years old, 2.5 WAR) -- Can opt out of the four years and $127 million remaining on his contract.

 

J.A. Happ (36 years old, 2.5 WAR)

 

CC Sabathia (38 years old, 2.2 WAR)

 

Lance Lynn (32 years old, 2.2 WAR)

 

Trevor Cahill (31 years old, 2.1 WAR)

 

Derek Holland (32 years old, 1.9 WAR)

 

Clay Buchholz (34 years old, 1.7 WAR)

 

Anibal Sanchez (35 years old, 1.6 WAR)

 

Nathan Eovaldi (29 years old, 1.5 WAR)

 

Gio Gonzalez (33 years old, 1.4 WAR)

 

Hyun-Jin Ryu (32 years old, 1.2 WAR)

 

Matt Harvey (30 years old, 1.1 WAR)

 

Jeremy Hellickson (32 years old, 1.1 WAR)

 

Wade Miley (32 years old, 1.0 WAR)

 

Garrett Richards (32 years old, 1.0 WAR)

 

Tyson Ross (32 years old, 1.0 WAR)

 

Brett Anderson (31 years old, 0.8 WAR)

 

Edwin Jackson (35 years old, 0.8 WAR)

 

Marco Estrada (35 years old, 0.5 WAR)

 

Bartolo Colon (46 years old, 0.2 WAR)

 

Jaime Garcia (32 years old, 0.0 WAR)

 

Adam Wainwright (37 years old, 0.0 WAR)

 

Drew Pomeranz (30 years old, -0.3 WAR)

 

Miguel Gonzalez (35 years old, -0.3 WAR)

 

Francisco Liriano (35 years old, -0.4 WAR)

 

Chris Tillman (31 years old, -0.4 WAR)

 

Hisashi Iwakuma (35 years old, N/A) -- Hasn't appeared in the Majors in 2018.

 

 

Looking at the list of available free agent starting pitchers there are a few intriguing options, but not much in terms of top of the rotation likelihood. I knew Patrick Corbin was having a good season heading into free agency, but I don’t think I realized quite how good he has been this year. Any favorite starting pitching targets for the Brewers this offseason via free agency?

[superfly]

Bartolo Colon. Lol

[MrTPlush]

Patrick Corbin hasn't really put it together before this season so that should nerf his demands a tad. Couple that with his age and maybe it is attractive enough for the Brewers to take the risk. Looking at his advanced stats I don't even know how he has an ERA over 3...he is incredible across the board.

 

Its a dream...probably nothing more. I expect the Brewers to be connected to him a ton similar to Darvish. I would love the Brewers to take the risk to be honest. By the time he ever gets old and declines we probably suck and won't care. The incredible improvement across the board this year is a little scary though...that is one big decline if he reverts back to his old self.

[brewmann04]

I can see DS looking to make a trade instead of FA

[tmwiese55]

I'd guess they'll be in on Corbin in the rumor mill but he won't end up here as a big market will pay up. I'd guess they'll end up Miley type bargain shopping for depth and that's it, roll with the depth they have here while banking on the improvement (vs 2018 SP production) coming from Nelson, Davies, Burnes.

[Jaylyn]

Might as well remove Corbin from the list, he'll be a Yankee. Wainwright would be interesting, just to stick to the Cards!

[reillymcshane]

Corbin has had a really nice season. I was skeptical of the guy when he was discussed in our trade forum, but he's certainly stepped up his game. At 29, he's still in his prime, plus he's left-handed, which may appeal to certain clubs, including Milwaukee.

 

I'm guessing he's going to get a really deal. It just takes one team to overpay. I'm betting that team in the Yankees. 5 years/$100-110M. It seems kind of nuts to give someone with such an erratic record that much money - but like I said, it only takes one team to do this - and I think the Yankees are primed to go after a starter.

 

I'm betting Kershaw does a new deal with the Dodgers. 5-years/$175M ($35M a year). Just my guess.

[Lathund]

Trevor Cahill could be an intriguing option for the 2019 version of 2018 Jhoulys Chacin. Ryu is another guy I like, but he has had his health issues.

[MadThinker88]

Danny Salazar might be a late addition to the list. He hasn't pitched all year & he had shoulder surgery during 2018. It is unknown if he will fully recover or even be a starter if he makes it all the way back.

 

The Tribe has to decide to offer a contract tender (& likely go to arbitration with him for the 3rd of 4 trips with him) or cut its losses and use that money elsewhere. His salary during this injured 2018 campaign was $5MM. I doubt he ends up with a paycut thru arbitration..

[StCroixCtyBrewer]

Call me crazy, but I could really see Stearns making a play for Dallas Keuchel. Stearns has that Houston connection, he's a top of the rotation arm that happens to be a lefty, and I don't think he breaks the bank like a Darvish would have though I could be wrong on that.

[reillymcshane]

Call me crazy, but I could really see Stearns making a play for Dallas Keuchel. Stearns has that Houston connection, he's a top of the rotation arm that happens to be a lefty, and I don't think he breaks the bank like a Darvish would have though I could be wrong on that.

Keuchel is a guy that I think gets a bit overlooked (including by myself). Cy Young 2015, bad 2016 (had shoulder cuff inflammation that bothered him all year), good 2017 (but missed 1/4 of the season with nerve issues in neck), very solid 2018. Assuming he stays healthy the rest of the year, he'll reach 200 IP.

 

He's never been a hard thrower, but his velocity is pretty much at what it was a few years ago. His average fastball is around 90mph. I'm not sure if that bodes well for him going forward - or if it makes him susceptible to doing really bad if he loses a tick or two off the FB. Also, his K rate has steadily dropped over the last few years.

 

I don't see him as a top of the rotation type - but a solid #2 or #3. Nothing wrong with that. I guess the big thing will be cost.

 

Houston might be reluctant to give him a huge deal. Cole and Verlander are FAs after 2020. And guys like Correa and Springer are going to be making a lot.

[clancyphile]

Re-signing Miley and Gio would be the first preference from my end. DJ worked a minor miracle with Miley, and Gio could emerge as well if he gets a full spring training with DJ.

 

Corbin will be tied to Milwaukee... and use that to drive up his offer from the Yankees or Cubs.

 

OTOH, maybe it's time for the Crew to being back CC Sabathia if Miley, Gio , or both end up departing via FA.

[TURBO]

Before we get any thought of resigning Gio, let's see what he brings to the table first. I'm not talking about his one start today, I mean at the end of the season, let's see how he did...

 

Honestly, I have zero faith in the guy, but am hoping he proves me wrong. I felt the same about Miley, and look where we are with him.

[JohnBriggs12]

Where's Gallardo on this list?

[Jenkins5]

Some team will she’ll out money to Corbin. Age & performance this year will cause some team to over pay. Kuechel produces. Lacks velocity but just knows how to pitch & has really good off speed stuff & command. Not many guys I’m really excited about on list. Trade seems like best approach in terms of money & youth

[nate82]

My thoughts on possible targets and cost:

 

Patrick Corbin (29 years old)

10% chance of happening contract: 6-years $114m

 

Dallas Keuchel (31 years old)

25% chance of happening contract: 5-years $110m

 

Nathan Eovaldi (29 years old)

40% chance of happening contract: 3-years $27m

 

Gio Gonzalez (33 years old)

35% chance of happening contract:1-year $6m

 

Matt Harvey (30 years old)

70% chance of happening contract: 2-years $16m

 

Wade Miley (32 years old)

25% chance of happening contract: 2-years $17m

 

 

 

The Brewers tried to acquire Harvey twice so far this year and it wouldn't surprise me if they go after him in the off season. Expect Harvey to be linked to the Brewers a lot this off season. Another player to be linked to the Brewers heavily will be Corbin but like Darvish I don't think the Brewers will get him. The Angels, Yankees, Dbacks, and the Mariners will all be linked to Corbin also. The Yankees need another starter and Corbin would fit in perfectly as the teams #2 or #3 pitcher. If the Yankees don't get Kershaw or decide not to go after Harper or Machado as their biggest need is starting pitching.

 

Between all of them I would prefer Eovaldi or Harvey on a deal similar to what Chacin signed last year. The Brewers would have to trade Schoop and Thames this off season to sign someone.

[Eye Black]

I don’t love the FA options, but my biggest concern with relying on a trade for a starting pitching upgrade is I think many of the teams that have been rebuilding in recent years are going to try to be competitive by next season.

 

Among the teams still rebuilding I don’t think many have higher-end starting pitching options. Maybe the Tigers are the exception with Michael Fulmer?

 

There are some good starting pitching options among teams that probably should begin rebuilding like the Mets and Giants, but I think both of those organizations will once again double down and try to be competitive in 2019. If the Giants do decide to take a step back I could see the final season of Madison Bumgarner (at just $12 million) fetching them a good return.

 

I am having trouble coming up with this off-season’s version of Gerrit Cole. I think Marcus Stroman might be the closest equivalent to a pitcher that could be available and benefit from moving to a new club.

[coolhandluke121]

Glad we got a separate thread for this.

 

I mentioned Keuchel in a different thread. The Brewers clearly prefer to bargain shop unless they're getting a significant upgrade like Yelich and Cain. Keuchel would qualify as a big upgrade and he might get overlooked a little. That said, even if Corbin and Kershaw sign before him, he'll still get a big offer. I could see the Brewers offering a deal like Arrieta got, but ultimately I think Keuchel gets a little more than that and the Brewers end up keeping Gonzalez and/or Miley. I like the idea of keeping both of them for insurance. They need swing lefties with Suter out for the year.

[3and2Fastball]

I like Corbin a lot, in terms of his age and the way his Walk rate & HR rate are trending lower. A team like the Yankees (or Cubs) will go after him aggressively. I really hope Kershaw opts for free agency and there is a huge bidding war for him, and with Keuchel in the mix perhaps the Brewers might have a shot at Corbin.

 

I think Stearns will try to make a big splash with pitching like he did with Yelich/Cain this past offseason, but he won't overpay, we've seen that.

[KeithStone53151]

Glad we got a separate thread for this.

 

I mentioned Keuchel in a different thread. The Brewers clearly prefer to bargain shop unless they're getting a significant upgrade like Yelich and Cain. Keuchel would qualify as a big upgrade and he might get overlooked a little. That said, even if Corbin and Kershaw sign before him, he'll still get a big offer. I could see the Brewers offering a deal like Arrieta got, but ultimately I think Keuchel gets a little more than that and the Brewers end up keeping Gonzalez and/or Miley. I like the idea of keeping both of them for insurance. They need swing lefties with Suter out for the year.

 

I don't mean to poke at you specifically, but I personally am not a fan of Keuchel and don't believe his success is sustainable long term. He's a soft tossing lefty with no true plus pitches. Relies heavily on command and hitters to chase. I'll agree with reilly about him being a good #3 pitcher and maybe a decent #2...definitely not the guy I want to give $100 million to. I also am not sure how well upper 80s with no plus offspeed pitches will age as he has already thrown over 1,000 career innings and had shoulder issues a couple years ago.

[OnaBadger58]

1. Patrick Corbin

2. Nathan Eovaldi

 

Camp Invite: Chris Tillman

 

It seems like just about every option available would add to the depth, but it wouldn't make the rotation much better especially considering the price tag that some of these players will be asking for. I wanted Garrett Richards, but he won't be ready until 2020. At that point, a transition to the bullpen may be in his best interests.

[brewmann04]

Good point we need a pitcher who make this rotation better in 2019 but think you see another trade by Stearns

[nate82]

Good point we need a pitcher who make this rotation better in 2019 but think you see another trade by Stearns

 

The Brewers don't have enough to get that pitcher. Trading away your depth for one player is not a good idea. The only way the Brewers are going to get something is by either doing a trade like Hiura, Burnes/Peralta and Ray for someone or trading Aguilar for someone. It is just not worth trading that much value for one guy who is only going to pitch every five days.

 

I would rather gamble on someone like Eovaldi, Corbin, or Harvey than trade away a package that includes Hiura and Ray.

[brewmann04]

Yes i get your point i am a big guy in keeping prospects but sometimes you have to but like you said always risky with pitchers

[long ball]

2019 internal options:

Chacin: $6.75M

Anderson: $6.5M

Nelson: Arb 2

Davies: Arb 1

Guerra: Arb 1

Woodruff: Minimum

Peralta: Minimum

Burnes: Minimum

Suter: Minimum (likely out all of 2019, but possible late season option)

Lyles: $1M opt w/ $250k buyout

Houser: Minimum

Wilkerson: Minimum

 

I think the Brewers will add a SP whether it be through FA or trade. Whether they add one of the bigger FA SPs will likely depend on how high MA is willing to push the payroll during the off season. They've added a lot of salary mid-season and I assume they'll want to maintain that flexibility.

 

I like Pomeranz as a possible Miley type signing during the off season. I don't necessarily think they need a "depth" signing, but a mid rotation or better arm would be very nice. Getting a healthy and effective Nelson (big if) would be the biggest get.