How much and how long would it take to extend Miley right now?

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Different style, but Miley's 12 starts in 2018 for the Crew are getting close to rivaling CC's starts in 2008...

 

This is a small sample, but would 2/$12 get it done? His 2016 and 2017 were awful, so will there be a market for Miley with 15-16 strong starts for the crew?

 

Or would he consider a 1 year "prove it" contract in 2019 and then try and hit it big in FA next winter if he can keep his strong 2018 going in 2019?

[MrTPlush]

I’m thinking a Chacin type deal is realistic/likely. I doubt he commands a 3/35mil type deal...just not enough track record. Guerra looked good for a half season worth of starts and then turned into a pumpkin.

[brewmann04]

I think he should get a slight extension and hope Chacin.

[adambr2]

I agree with the others on a Chacin type deal. He has been fantastic, but we are still talking about 11 starts. That's an awfully small sample to forget about everything before that and pony up.

 

Still, I don't think it's impossible that someone rolls the dice and offers 3/36 or so. If they do, I'd pass. 2/16 is about the highest I'd want to go.

[clancyphile]

I'd go Chacin-plus, 2/15 with a team option for 10.

[jerichoholicninja]

Maybe look to the Wade LeBlanc extension as a starting point. Miley is 2 years younger but both are over-30 pitchers who turned their career around with a new team.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Miley has been very durable and very average over his career. Before this season he had made 30 starts 6 straight years. But for most of those years he had been slightly below-average or, the last 2 years pretty bad. He's turned it around this year obviously but it's not very many starts. Did DJ work some magic? I don't think the amount of starts he's had is enough to make any kind of determination. With the Brewers payroll I'd be fairly comfortable with a 2-year 12 million or thereabouts commitment but Miley and his agent may feel he's proved himself. He's at an age where he's not going to get another shot at any kind of a big contract so he might be gunning for a 3/36 deal, as that will probably be close to the best I think he can expect from some desperate team, and there's no way I think the Brewers should come close to matching something like that.

[dlk9s]

Let's slow our roll a little bit.

[JohnBriggs12]

Miley and Chacin have had similar careers. Both had success early on, then had some struggling years and seem to have found something and rebounded. Neither are power guys but all their pitches have movement and they aren't overwhelmed by the moment. A Chacin type contract is warranted and these are the type of pitchers that fit the Brewer payroll structure perfectly.

[TooLiveBrew]

Different style, but Miley's 12 starts in 2018 for the Crew are getting close to rivaling CC's starts in 2008...

The ERAs might be comparable, but he is not getting close to the impact CC had in 2008.

 

That said, if he'd talk extension I'd at least have the conversation. Not sure it's a good risk for the Brewers, because I doubt he'd be open to as small a deal as about 2/$12M.

 

If definitely be interested in re-upping him on a one-year deal if he's amenable.

[MrTPlush]

CC Sabathia: 14-3, 7 2/3 innings per start

Wade Miley: 8-4, 5 1/3 innings per start

 

Not even in the same universe of impact.

[Jopal78]

It all depends if the analytics departments around baseball think Miley can sustain his hits allowed rate and homers allowed rate. Both are career bests this year 7.5H/9 and 0.4HR/9 with career averages of 9.4H/9 and 1.0HR/9. I am leery about pitchers who suddenly "find it" and have a standout year after seasons of poor play. I'd offer a one year deal for 9 or 10 million dollars with a club option for 2020, and let him shop around for something better.

[Roderick]

I know the union frowns on incentive laden deals, and the usual incentives like # of starts or # of innings pitched don't work when you are more worried about the quality of the pitching versus the injury-free status of the pitcher.

 

Has anybody ever seen contract incentives that weren't starts, innings, all-star team, cy young voting for a pitcher?

 

I know it is simplistic and biased, but for someone like Miley, if you could just have a contract 2/$15M and if you make 22+ starts and your ERA is below 4.0, we will pay you another $2.5M for that year.

[Lathund]

I know the union frowns on incentive laden deals, and the usual incentives like # of starts or # of innings pitched don't work when you are more worried about the quality of the pitching versus the injury-free status of the pitcher.

 

Has anybody ever seen contract incentives that weren't starts, innings, all-star team, cy young voting for a pitcher?

 

No, and and that's because stat-based incentives are prohibited.

[TURBO]

CC Sabathia: 14-3, 7 2/3 innings per start

Wade Miley: 8-4, 5 1/3 innings per start

 

Not even in the same universe of impact.

 

Thanks for saving me the work of looking that up.

 

Yeah, comparing CC and Miley is a bit of a reach...

[JohnBriggs12]

CC Sabathia: 14-3, 7 2/3 innings per start

Wade Miley: 8-4, 5 1/3 innings per start

 

Not even in the same universe of impact.

 

Thanks for saving me the work of looking that up.

 

Yeah, comparing CC and Miley is a bit of a reach...

 

It's more than a bit of a reach. Sabathia was the reigning Cy Young winner when he was acquired. Miley was coming off a year so bad, all he could get was a minor league contract right before spring training.

[FVBrewerFan]

Right now, CC clearly better. But let's wait to see how Miley does in the playoffs- remember Sabathia had only one outing, and it was not a good one.

[clancyphile]

Right now, Chacin-plus is arguably the best way to do it. The ideal would be Jeffress-plus, a one-year deal with multiple option years, but I think we'd need at least two years to keep Miley on.

[istanbultaye]

You can still use starts / innings as incentives on a moderate contract where quality is the risk more so than durability, because if the quality is not good enough, they won't reach the starts / innings due to getting sent to the pen or being cut, if they are that bad.

[bork]

Right now, CC clearly better. But let's wait to see how Miley does in the playoffs- remember Sabathia had only one outing, and it was not a good one.

 

Yeah because he was pitching on short rest because they had no other options.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

This will probably work out like Swarzak where they want to keep him but his performance prices him away. Hope he keeps it rolling and gets too expensive. Stearns has plenty of young arms, Nelson coming back and can always find the next Miley. Miley will do great but so will Brewers either way.

[cesser000]

Right now, CC clearly better. But let's wait to see how Miley does in the playoffs- remember Sabathia had only one outing, and it was not a good one.

 

Yeah because he was pitching on short rest because they had no other options.

Sabathia managed to shine on short rest late in the season. His last 3 regular season starts of 2008 were each on 3 days of rest, and in those he pitched a total of 21.2 innings and only gave up 2 runs.

 

He had that same 3 days of rest for his playoff start, but lasted just 3.2 innings, giving up 5 runs.

[pacopete4]

Right now, CC clearly better. But let's wait to see how Miley does in the playoffs- remember Sabathia had only one outing, and it was not a good one.

 

Yeah because he was pitching on short rest because they had no other options.

Sabathia managed to shine on short rest late in the season. His last 3 regular season starts of 2008 were each on 3 days of rest, and in those he pitched a total of 21.2 innings and only gave up 2 runs.

 

He had that same 3 days of rest for his playoff start, but lasted just 3.2 innings, giving up 5 runs.

 

I think it would be a better indication of CC running out of gas. You can only do that for so long. He gave us every bit of what he had in a contract year and I will be forever grateful.

[dlk9s]

ITT we compare Wiley to CC Sabathia.

[Boomer5]

ITT we compare Wiley to CC Sabathia.

 

Thank you.