2005 draft order/MLB standings

[colbyjack]

nikip's question about the top prep prospects for 2005 had me glancing at this year's standings. I haven't had much time to follow what has been going, so I thought I would post the standings, as this discussion may be more for the MLB thread:

 

Draft order, winning percentage (as of yesterday's games):

1. Expos, .328

2. Rockies, .368

3. D-Backs, .391

4. Pirates, .394

5. Royals, .394

6. Orioles, .431

7. Mariners, .433

8. Blue Jays, .435

9. Tigers, .456

10. Braves, .471

11. D-Rays, .485

12. Padres, .500

13. Mets, .500

14. Indians, .500

15. Astros, .522

16. Brewers, .530

17. White Sox, .530

18. Marlins, .536

19. Giants, .536

20. Phillies, .537

21. Angels, .544

22. Reds, .551

23. Twins, .559

24. Rangers, .561

25. Dodgers, .561

26. Cubs, .565

27. A's, .567

28. Red Sox, .574

29. Cardinals, .594

30. Yankeees, 642

 

Remember, draft order will not be affect by leagues next year, only be reverse order in standings. Tie-breakers as far as I know will still be awarded to the team that finished worse in the standings the year before.

 

A few observations...

 

Man, the Expos are really, really bad. Even in their bad years they seem to compete with what they have. If they go cheap on the #1 pick next year since they're owned by MLB, that's too bad, especially since Justin Upton may continue to be the top player on everyone's board.

 

It doesn't seem as though there are many teams in the .400 range, at least not compared to past years. In fact, starting with the 12th pick, all teams are .500 or above. Is this parity starting to work for MLB? Aside from the mighty Yankees & their amazing .642 winning percentage, especially considering their slow start, there are a bunch of teams packed together, including the Brewers.

 

And speaking of the Brewers, they haven't picked as "low" as the 16th pick since 1993, when we took Jeff D'Amico with the 23rd overall selection.

 

The D-Rays have won 11 in a row? Man, I am out of touch. That has to make the Orioles & Blue Jays look pretty bad right now. The Jays looked promising at the end of last year, while the O's spent a lot of money this offseason in an attempt to look good. Of course, they're playing in one of the tougher divisions, with 2 of MLB's top 3 teams.

 

The Royals are showing that last year was likely more of a fluke than not.

 

When's the last time the Braves picked as early as 10th overall? Back when they picked #2 overall in 1991 (Mike Kelly, not quite as memorable as the #1 overall pick in 1990, Chipper Jones).

 

The Padres & Mets have both drastically improved from last year. Most expected that out of the Padres, not the Mets. The Reds & Rangers have jumped up more than the Padres & Mets. And how about that AL West?

 

The Giants certainly have been playing better in recent weeks, as have the Cardinals.

 

All of the Tigers signings have improved their draft position from #2 to #9 overall. And that's after their hot start.

 

If the Brewers even stay close to where they're playing now, it will be interesting entering next year's draft with such a relatively low pick. In the past couple of years, especially last year, it was easy to narrow down the draft candidates. Next year there could easily be 20 candidates in contention for our first-round pick, and if the Brewers do indeed draft on the sunny side of 15, they better not sign any type A or B free agents this offseason, unless free agent draft compensation is done away with, but I wouldn't count on that.

[Bonderman38]

I had similar observations and while the Expos are really bad, they still have a 10 game lead on the 2003 Tigers, amazing and truly sad if you're a Tigers fan.

 

Detroit is actually a little better than what they've shown of late but I still expect us to land a top 10 pick next year. I have my eyes on Upton and Pelfrey for next year's draft, so I honestly hope my Tigers keep losing as we need to build a solid young core. I still don't have a good grasp of who the top 10 prospects are for next year so it should be interesting as things unfold.

[colbyjack]

I'll try to update this every month, not so much for draft order but just to see who is rising & falling with each month.

 

Draft order after games played on July 1:

 

1. Expos

2. Rockies

3. D-Backs

4. Royals

5. Mariners

6. Pirates

7. Orioles

8. Blue Jays

9. Tigers

10. Braves

11. Mets

12. Indians

13. D-Rays

14. Astros

15. Marlins

16. Padres

17. Angels

18. Dodgers

19. Phillies

20. Twins

21. Reds

22. Red Sox

23. Brewers

24. Cubs

25. Giants

26. White Sox

27. A's

28. Rangers

29. Cardinals

30. Yankees

 

Brewers at #23? All of the teams from 13-30 are at or above .500. That's parity at it's finest.

[colbyjack]

Draft order for 2005, through games played on 7/31/04:

 

1. D-Backs-.311

2. Royals.-353

3. Mariners-.379

4. Expos-.394

5. Blue Jays-.437

6. Rockies-.442

7. Orioles-.451

8. Mets-.476

9. D-Rays-.476

10. Pirates-.480

11. Tigers-.481

12. Brewers-.485

13. Reds-.490

14. Astros-.500

15. Marlins-.500

16. Indians-.510

17. Phillies-.510

18. White Sox-.518

19. Angels-.538

20. Giants.538

21. Cubs-.538

22. Red Sox-.549

23. Braves-.553

24. Padres-.558

25. Rangers-.559

26. Twins-.563

27. A's-.563

28. Dodgers-.583

29. Yankees-.631

30. Cardinals-.641

[H0FFY]

Pretty amazing month. We go from 23rd pick to 12th. The Braves now have taken our 23rd spot. They were 10th!!! worst 5 weeks ago.

 

Other big shakers... Well, I dont see any. That means July has two stories. The comeback of the Braves. And the return to brewerocrity by the Brewers.

[colbyjack]

Aren't the Braves playing something like .700+ ball over the last 2+ weeks? Their turnaround has been amazing, and it seems as though for the past 3-4 years people say that this will be the year that the Braves finally fall. Once again, not this year.

 

One thing that stuck out to me when compiling the standings was the New York Mets. They're one of the worst teams in baseball, even if they're not that far below .500, and yet they dealt prospects for a couple of big-league pitchers. As Bill & others noted on the MLB forum, they're idiots.

 

And while the Mariners slide has been well documented, no one seems to be talking about the Blue Jays' struggles this season. I know they're playing in a tough division, but I think most expected them to be more competetive than what they have been this year. At least not in dead last.

[batman]

Good stuff, Patrick... team records are easily available, but it's somehow different when they are presented like this... it adds some perspective, I think.

 

Anyway, the Blue Jays have been absolutely terrible. Delgado's slide has been a big part of that, but they've also gotten some unexpectedly bad performances out of other players. JP Ricciardi is taking some heat from the Toronto press, but more is being directed at ownership than at the GM. JP still thinks they'll have a good team next year and has said he's still sticking with his "win in 2005" plan. At this point, I don't think that's going to happen, but you never know I guess.

 

~Bill

[jwaltz]

Quote:

---

it's somehow different when they are presented like this... it adds some perspective, I think.

---

 

It's also alot more fun doing it this way.

 

Next year we will probably again be saying "is this the end for the Braves" at the start of the season and saying "I guess the Braves will hang on for one more season" by the middle of the season. I guess you just don't bet against Cox and Shuerholz(sp?). It's neat to see that while their teams of the 90's were built around pitching the last two years their teams have been built around offense.

[Al the Thinking Man]

TOR has been poorer than most of us thought, but that's a $30M team minus Carlos. JP always seems to make good moves, but his pitching certainly has been crappy.

[Never Outhustled]

JP always seems to make good moves, but his pitching certainly has been crappy. His pitching wouldn't be so crappy if he hadn't cut Doug Davis.

[colbyjack]

I don't think anyone was attacking JP for the Blue Jays nose dive this season. However, can you simply say he's done a good job & that his players, especially the pitchers, have failed him? If you liked Dean Taylor enough, you could probably spin an argument that he did fine as GM and that it was the players that failed him.

 

How long has JP been with Toronto now? I realize, as Bill pointed out, that when he took the job it was more about the future than about the present, but if they continue to struggle next year at what point do you keep making excuses for the job that JP has done in Toronto? As we've pointed out before, most of the talent in Toronto currently is courtesy of Gord Ash & even Pat Gillick.

 

And I'd like to point out that just because someone embraces a popular philosophy doesn't make him good.

[DuWayne Steurer]

and it seems as though for the past 3-4 years people say that this will be the year that the Braves finally fall. Once again, not this year.

 

Every year, when I do my own little predictions in all the divisions, I automatically pencil in the Braves for the top spot in the east. Call me silly, or whatever. But until they DONT win the east, I won't bet against them.

 

Having always been a kind of closet Braves fan, I'm happy to see them tearing it up this month.

 

(Dale Murphy was a god)

 

Back on topic.........we were 23'rd in draft position for a bit? That's absurd!

[batman]

If that was directed at me, Patrick, I wasn't really defending him. You had just asked if he was taking heat in Toronto, and I responded in the affirmative but that the ownership is getting most of the blame. And like I said, I'm not so sure the "win in 2005" plan that JP got the job based upon is going to work out. In fact, I'd definitely wager that it wouldn't at this point in time, especially since they weren't able to cash in Delgado this year.

 

You're right, of course, that a good philosophy does not a good GM make.

 

If that wasn't directed at me, never mind. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

~Bill

[colbyjack]

Every year, when I do my own little predictions in all the divisions, I automatically pencil in the Braves for the top spot in the east. Call me silly, or whatever. But until they DONT win the east, I won't bet against them.

 

Exactly RoCo. They have proven everyone wrong far too many times to bet against them.

 

If that wasn't directed at me, never mind.

 

I've already ignored your comments http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

 

That was directed at Al, who has gone out of his way to support JP. And while I'm not saying that JP has done a bad job, as he still has a decent future to look forward to, I'm just not ready to proclaim him as a good GM just because he embraces a certain philosophy until he establishes that the Blue Jays can be successful.

 

I can understand the defense though. I personally like what Littlefield is doing in Pittsburgh, but until he proves that he can turn the Pirates into a competetive team, I'm not going to go out of my way to openly support him (especially since he's a divisional rival).

[DuWayne Steurer]

I am gonna pick up the ball here Colby.

 

There were people saying that DePods was a "great GM" before the Dodgers had ever played a GAME under his reign. How "silly" is that.

 

Now, the fact is that so far, DePods has done a really nice job in LA, but I'm not going to totally judge him until we've seen a few drafts, his offseason moves, and so on.

 

The point is, like Colby said, just embracing a certain philosophy doesn't make someone "smarter" or "better" than other GM's. It just means he has a different way of thinking than other GMs.

 

I'm sure that most GM's (but there ARE exceptions) know that OBP, and then SLG, are the 2 cornerstone statistics to baseball, and that the sabre stats tell you much more than conventional and traditional stats do. But just because they don't SAY IT over and over, doesn't make them any lesser thinkers than the guys like Epstein and Beane who spout it every chance they get.

 

Don't tell me what you're going to do. You're a GM. I don't need to know. You just go do it, and I'll judge you based on RESULTS, not what you SAY.

 

EDIT: Lest anyone jump to conclusion and rip me for bashing Beane and Epstein and DePods, that's not my intent here. I know the Beane backers tend to get a *bit* defensive even when what I'm trying to say isn't actually a bash on Beane, but the people that think that Saying what you're going to do is the same as actually doing it.

[igor67]

One of the important things for me in evaluating a GM is to make sure I don't fall into the bad year trap. Any GM can just have a year where all the breaks go a different direction. I think that's happened to JP this year as well as Baird. Of course KC had all the breaks go for them last year, so there's a little cosmic justice there. A guy like Sabean has had atleast one off year I think. Clearly Schuerholz hasn't in many years, but those deals with the devil can be powerful things. The flipside is proclaiming a GM a genius based on one really good year. Bill Stoneman is the good example here. He's OK, but he's done some very questionable things when it comes to constructing that team.

[pogokat]

even the braves fans i know were calling it for the phillies this year...i don't know what it is about this team..they just can't be beat (in the regular season)

 

anyway, roco, yes, dale murphy was my hero too...and really if it weren't for pul molitor, and my brief life in wisconsin, i'd probably still be a braves fan...i mean, it makes more sense than the brewers for me...i mean, i live in georgia

[950opsLHcatcher]

Just three and a half weeks later...

 

1. Arizona - .305

2. Kansas City - .355

3. Seattle - .368

4. Toronto - .417

5. Montreal - .429

6. Colorado - .437

7. Milwaukee - .440

8. Baltimore - .456

9. Tampa Bay - .465

10. NY Mets - .472

11. Pittsburgh - .476

12. Detroit - .476

13. Cincinnati - .480

14. Philadelphia - .488

15. Chi. White Sox - .492

16. Cleveland - .500

17. Houston - .508

18. Florida - .508

19. San Diego - .540

20. San Francisco - .547

21. Chi. Cubs - .556

22. Texas - .560

23. Minnesota - .563

24. Anaheim - .575

25. Boston - .576

26. Atlanta - .576

27. Oakland - .579

28. Los Angeles - .579

29. NY Yankees - .619

30. St. Louis - .659

 

Still very conceivable that the Brewers could get into the top 4 or 5, and they aren't going to drop down much lower than 7th. I don't think they'll "make up" 9 games on Seattle, but they're just 3 games better than Toronto.

[colbyjack]

Man, that's an ugly fall. The Rockies & Blue Jays have dropped a tad since I last peeked at the standings earlier this week. The Rockies were at .444 & the Blue Jays were at .419, so they aren't making it easy for us to "catch up" to them. At this point of the season, draft position is just about the only thing to look forward to. They might as well keep on falling.

[lend d money]

Agreed colby, that's why I don't see it as an "ugly" fall, but one that was overdue and necessary for the further development of the organization. The singles hitters managed to somehow make things interesting for half a season, but they are now showing their true colors. We still have many holes to fill. The best way for a team with a limited budget to do so is through the draft.....again.

[mothershipconnection]

Another year of this crap and we'll be back in the #1 farm system seat. Of course, Hart, Hardy, Fielder and Krynzel will be in the bigs so we'll need a few good drafts to restock, but Jack Z. can do pretty good things when he's handed high draft position.

[colbyjack]

As the Brewers keep sinking, the Rockies & Blue Jays continue to sink as well. The Expos are really the only bad team that is playing reasonably well right now. So, with a little over a month to go, it would seem as though the best draft position the Brewers could get right now would be 6th.

[colbyjack]

Toby updated the list less than a week ago, but just to make the official end of the month list:

 

1. D-Backs: .311

2. Royals: .351

3. Mariners: .389

4. Blue Jays: .409

5. Rockies: .420

6. Expos: .424

7. Brewers: .431

8. Orioles: .454

9. D-Rays: .450

10. Mets: .458

11. Tigers: .462

12. Pirates: .466

13. Reds: .473

14. White Sox: .492

15. Phillies: .492

16. Indians: .504

17. Astros: .523

18. Marlins: .523

19. Padres: .542

20. Cubs: .545

21. Giants: .545

22. Twins: .557

23. Rangers: .562

24. Angels: .573

25. Dodgers: .588

26. Braves: .588

27. Red Sox: .592

28. A's: .595

29. Yankees: .618

30. Cardinals: .664

 

Much different from a couple of months ago, now half the teams are below .500 & half the teams are above .500.

[colbyjack]

Well, the Mets & D-Rays have slumped ahead of us, with the Rockies just behind now. Draft position now is at #8.

[rainman]

Im hoping for the #5 spot. Cmon Crew you can do it!