2019 rotation

[coolhandluke121]

We learned a lot about how the team thinks this season, and we can apply that to next year's projections.

 

1. They value depth. A LOT. And they should. Guys with options will have to win roster spots, not just break even in camp.

2. They don't give a rat's butt if fans and media get the tidy depth charts they crave. They know the game isn't played on paper.

3. They bide their time and only go for clear, significant upgrades when the cost and the player is right.

4. Young guys aren't just gifted roles until they earn it. I don't really love this, but it's justified when you're in the playoff hunt.

5. Players will be given a leash proportional to their recent success. They don't just cut guys after 2 bad weeks.

6. That said, they do move on when the slump is prolonged and they have a better option (read: NOT Orf/Wilkerson).

 

Don't be surprised if they go after Keuchel and at least drive up the price, losing him to a Darvish-level offer. I think the market will be a little better for free agents this year, but he might get an Arrieta-level deal and that would be manageable for the Brewers. Beyond that, they will look at reclamation type guys and just keep their depth.

 

Rather than pick spots, I rank starters in terms of "longest leash based on track record, recent success, and pedigree":

 

1. Chacin

2. Anderson

3a. Davies (2 strong years before this one - hopefully yesterday was a sign of things to come)

3b. Burnes

3c. Nelson (TOTAL wild card)

6a. Peralta

6b. Guerra

6c. Woodruff

6d. next year's Miley/Gonzalez veteran gamble

10. Wilkerson (please god no)

 

It's basically a fool's errand to try to differentiate them now, but the close calls go to guys with some record of success - especially if the other guy has an option and can be stowed away in AAA for on-call depth.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

This is what makes Freddy so interesting. If he can just harness his command a little more, he could be special. He has never shown to have that ability on a consistent basis in the minors - or majors.

 

All the more reason not to write him off, as I see many here doing. Young pitchers needing time to refine their control is a story as old as the game. I can say with full confidence that the Brewers aren't overlooking Peralta's ability to miss major league bats. It's why he made the rotation before Burnes and Woodruff, seemingly jumping over them both overnight. I expect his command of the strike zone to be better in 2019 than it was in 2018. His walk rate went from 4.2BB/9 in 2014 to 1.3BB/9 in 2015 at the same level. From then on he's been pushed very aggressively, jumping at least one level each year. 2019 will be Freddy's first chance to repeat the same level for an entire season since 2015. If I'm not mistaken, the strike zone in the minor leagues is the same size as that in the majors. Somehow, the last time Peralta was able to stay in the same spot for a 2nd season he had elite control and a ridiculous strikeout to walk ratio (1.3 BB/9 and 8.38 SO/BB). Freddy can throw strikes consistently. It's all about confidence, trusting his stuff, and settling in. In other words, it's just a matter of time.

[long ball]

I would assume it's a lot of the same options they have this season. They'll need ~10 SPs again next season

 

Burnes, Anderson, Davies, and Chacin all feel like locks to make the opening day rotation assuming no trades.

 

Nelson will be given every opportunity to pitch in the rotation if he's healthy.

 

Peralta probably starts out in AAA, but first line of rotation depth.

 

Woodruff might start in the bullpen, but also part of that first line of rotation depth.

 

Probably another Miley type deal as well (maybe even Miley himself if they resign him)

 

Guerra is probably tendered, but may be at risk of getting cut in spring training. He's likely cheap enough to hang onto though.

 

Wheeler is still a guy I'd want the Brewers to target on the trade market. Pomeranz might be an interesting name to watch on the FA market. Coming off a bad/injured season, but has had a lot of success previously.

[clancyphile]

I still think that Miley can come back on a reasonable deal (maybe a one-year deal with a team option or two), given that he missed time with injuries this year.

 

Gio Gonzales as well (one year "prove it" deal with team option or two).

 

Get those two in the fold, and it goes well with Anderson, Chacin, Davies, Peralta, Woodruff, Burnes, Guerra, and Nelson.

[jjfanec]

The more I read people's thoughts and the more I look at our options I think next year we could easily go - Nelson, Anderson, Miley, Davies, Chacin and then have the kids ready and waiting in case some gets hurt. Could make for crazy depth and a fun bullpen.

 

This would also make a top of the rotation starter trade more of an option if we would go into the year not telling on Burnes and others. Could have depth to trade from.

[FVBrewerFan]

Where’s next years Chacin on that list? Do we need another arm with all the studs the crew has coming through? I don’t think we do.

 

I think it helps Guerra can be back with option in 2019, as he can be the fallback if Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff don't work out...injuries to the vets, etc.

 

Anderson

Chacin

Davies

Burnes

Peralta

Woodruff

 

There's a chance not all 6 will be healthy/ ready on opening day. If they are, Woodruff or Peralta can start in AAA until someone is injured/ ineffective. We all know you'll need at least 8 or 9 starters.

 

Miley could be back for a reasonable contract, which would push both Peralta/Woodruff out of the rotation temporarily. But I agree, it's time for the young guns to get their spot in the rotation. Peralta you could argue has some things to work on, but Burnes should absolutely start the season in the rotation. He will have his struggles, but that's going to happen even if you wait another year.

 

These are the guys Stearns wanted to protect, so take the training wheels off. And I think they will.

 

And you didn’t even list Nelson.

 

Right, I don't even consider Nelson. If he can make it all the way back, and then STAY healthy and effective it will be a bonus. Not counting on him at all, this isn't TJ we're talking about.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

The problem with the brewers rotation is too many #3-4 starters and not enough at the top end. We have plenty of depth. Would you trade Burnes and Peralta + to get a #1 starter?

[clancyphile]

How about Estrada? Might be a cost-effective boost, ala Chacin.

[ecjimg]

This is what makes Freddy so interesting. If he can just harness his command a little more, he could be special. He has never shown to have that ability on a consistent basis in the minors - or majors.

 

All the more reason not to write him off, as I see many here doing. Young pitchers needing time to refine their control is a story as old as the game. I can say with full confidence that the Brewers aren't overlooking Peralta's ability to miss major league bats. It's why he made the rotation before Burnes and Woodruff, seemingly jumping over them both overnight. I expect his command of the strike zone to be better in 2019 than it was in 2018. His walk rate went from 4.2BB/9 in 2014 to 1.3BB/9 in 2015 at the same level. From then on he's been pushed very aggressively, jumping at least one level each year. 2019 will be Freddy's first chance to repeat the same level for an entire season since 2015. If I'm not mistaken, the strike zone in the minor leagues is the same size as that in the majors. Somehow, the last time Peralta was able to stay in the same spot for a 2nd season he had elite control and a ridiculous strikeout to walk ratio (1.3 BB/9 and 8.38 SO/BB). Freddy can throw strikes consistently. It's all about confidence, trusting his stuff, and settling in. In other words, it's just a matter of time.

 

And oddly, he pretty much only walks left handed batters. So, is it really command?

[FVBrewerFan]

The problem with the brewers rotation is too many #3-4 starters and not enough at the top end. We have plenty of depth. Would you trade Burnes and Peralta + to get a #1 starter?

 

Really overrated in my opinion. I rather have 6-7 #3 starters (like they do) rather than building a rotation around an ace. You need that to get through a whole season, and then hope a couple of those #3 guys pitch like a #1 down the stretch and/or in the playoffs.

[Greenleaf1]

Unfortunately, I think the Brewers are going to have to operate as if Nelson will be unavailable for 2019. Just can't count on him yet with any certainty, so our plans for the rotation to start the year (in terms of offseason moves) will have to be planned accordingly.

 

Count on any of these guys being in the rotation for sure (if healthy):

1. Chacin

2. Anderson

3. Davies

4. Burnes

5. Nelson

 

The last slot (or two if Nelson isn't ready) would be up for grabs between:

6. Peralta

7. Guerra

8. Woodruff

 

Given the number of these guys with options remaining (all but Chacin/Anderson/Nelson), I could see the Brewers looking to sign a veteran to a 1 year deal (or maybe some minor league signings like Miley) to increase depth. Miley may want a longer commitment than that but we'll see.

 

The one thing we know for sure is that there will be some serious competition for rotation spots next March.

[brewmann04]

No Wade?

[tmwiese55]

The problem with the brewers rotation is too many #3-4 starters and not enough at the top end. We have plenty of depth. Would you trade Burnes and Peralta + to get a #1 starter?

 

What are there like 7-10 guys who'd actually still count as the traditional #1 ace type starter? First, they're not available and second we couldn't afford their contracts if they were or you could trade for an impending FA like Bumgarner.

 

So no I wouldn't see a trade that makes sense for Burnes. All signs look like he could be that next tier of top level pitcher while not being traditional ace, call it what you will. But a low 3s ERA type cost controlled for 7 years is invaluable to MKE. All the tools look like they're there. If anything he's our best chance at an Ace since the true aces aren't available.

 

Peralta I could see in a package for something, C or a pitching upgrade of some kind in a 'go for it' type trade since I'm just not sure what to think long term of a little guy who only throws 91 and only has two pitches. If he develops a changeup though look out, so I'm not exactly 'looking' to trade him. I'd rather develop the change and hope you can make him into a near Ace type.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

It's clear that people here aren't seeing him this way, but after Chacin, Peralta is probably the most sure bet to be in the Brewers rotation next year. Think in terms of stuff, projectability, and cost control like the team will. Nelson would be right there with those 2 if healthy.

[tmwiese55]

It's clear that people here aren't seeing him this way, but after Chacin, Peralta is probably the most sure bet to be in the Brewers rotation next year. Think in terms of stuff, projectability, and cost control like the team will. Nelson would be right there with those 2 if healthy.

 

I would disagree with this. First, Anderson has multi million dollar contract. Second, Davies is proven for two years. Maybe if he blows up the rest of the year it becomes questionable, otherwise he's a lock. Nelson if healthy is a lock. I suppose it's debatable between him and Burnes but I'd guess they go Burnes before him. Peralta has had like one good game the 2 months or however it long it took for those 7 or 8 starts.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

It's clear that people here aren't seeing him this way, but after Chacin, Peralta is probably the most sure bet to be in the Brewers rotation next year. Think in terms of stuff, projectability, and cost control like the team will. Nelson would be right there with those 2 if healthy.

 

I would disagree with this. First, Anderson has multi million dollar contract. Second, Davies is proven for two years. Maybe if he blows up the rest of the year it becomes questionable, otherwise he's a lock. Nelson if healthy is a lock. I suppose it's debatable between him and Burnes but I'd guess they go Burnes before him. Peralta has had like one good game the 2 months or however it long it took for those 7 or 8 starts.

 

Consider who they'd be willing to trade. Anderson and Davies don't have the years of cheap control Peralta has. Nelson isn't as much of a lock as Peralta because of the health question. If Nelson hadn't tore up shoulder of course he'd be more of a sure thing. And Peralta has already jumped Burnes in the developmental tree so I'm not sure why anyone would place higher odds on Burnes being in the rotation than Peralta. That's not to say Burnes won't be in the rotation. I think Burnes is more of a lock to be in the Brewers rotation than Anderson and Davies. If neither Anderson or Davies are traded, they'll be in the rotation. But you can bet the Brewers will be looking to move either of those guys before they trade the cost controlled Peralta and Burnes.

[tmwiese55]

Again I would disagree they're looking to do that, if anything we learned this year they value the depth and it shows you need 8-10 guys to get through a year. I don't think they're going to be looking to move that depth while they still have years of control. I also don't necessarily think they would view Peralta as better than Burnes, of course no way to prove since Peralta started over him this year but I don't take that as a hard indicator for the future. It could really be just that due to Peralta's control problems he's not a candidate for the bullpen, whereas Burnes is. Plus it could be an innings issue, who knows. Basically I just think they roll with the older guys listed, and then have these young guys as the filler once they're needed. We'll see though, I don't thik you're saying anything crazy or illogical. Just don't agree. Plus looking at Peralta's second half I think it's clear he needs a lot of work, not be trusted as reliable enough to be a starter all year at the MLB level.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

And I don't think you or anyone else is off base with their guesses either. Just surprised at how few have Peralta in the top 5 next year. And my having Peralta as the 2nd surest bet to be in the rotation isn't the same as slotting him in as the #2. Two different things. My confidence in him being in the rotation stems from the fact I don't think there's any chance the move him to the pen or put him back in AAA. That doesn't make an ounce of sense. Both of those options stunt his development as a starting pitcher. Once a young pitcher has had success as a starter in the big leagues, you don't back track. And make no mistake, Peralta HAS proven some things at the MLB level. He's really, really hard to hit. His command at the major league level will improve by pitching at the major league level. The difference with Burnes is that he made his most immediate contribution as a reliever. They wouldn't work backwards with him either. But Burnes came up in the pen and hasn't had the chance to prove anything as a starter just yet. Still think they've got eyes on both Peralta and Burnes in the 2019 rotation.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

To be completely fair to Burnes, I do think he's shown enough in the majors to be penned in for the 2019 rotation at some point as well. His innings will have to be managed a little more than Peralta which is why Burnes is no lock in my mind to be in the 5-man group come Opening Day. I think they'll stretch him out as the season goes on so he can be a fixture in the rotation in the 2nd half.

[JosephC]

The concept of rigid innings limitations really irritates me. Seems like just as many pitchers are getting hurt now as in previous years. Has there ever been a real study performed that definitively shows pitchers get hurt at a significantly greater frequency if the "maximum 30 inning increase from the previous season" rule is violated? Or is this some baseball myth dreamed up by a bunch of baseball executives 20 years ago and has no statistical evidence to back it up?

 

Corbin Burnes threw 145 2/3 professional innings in 2017. That would have put him at the 170 2/3-175 2/3 threshold this season (depending on if the 25+ or 30+ inning "guideline" is used). That would have put him on pace for at least 195 innings in 2019. So does spending 1/2 year in the bullpen reset him back to the level he was at in 2017? Someone has to explain to me how these "rules" work? Personally I don't think a player like Burnes should have any limitations in 2019. If he starts complaining about his arm, then back him off or shut him down. If there is a velocity drop, then back him off or shut him down. It's not like this guy has been a life-long reliever that has only thrown 50 innings per season and now the Brewers would be asking him to throw 200+. Let's look at the health and performance of the individual rather than make broad assumptions that may not apply to this individual at all.

 

I'm not completely against innings limitations. Drafting a kid out of high school, I would agree that it's not in anybody's interest to have him go out and pitch 180 innings as a 19 year old. But Burnes doesn't fall into that group. Last big study I've seen on arm injuries were high schoolers and one of the big conclusions from that is that most of those problems happen early in the season when players try to do to much too fast and don't back off when their body tells them too. I've also seen studies in the past which has tied injuries to mechanics/method of delivery. The term "overuse" gets thrown out there a lot, mainly when you hear about 17-year-olds throwing 150+ pitches in one day. But would "overuse" apply to a 23 year old that throws 150 innings one season and then throws 195 innings the next season? Again, is there a study that demonstrates that players in this age range get injured more frequently, by proven statistical methods, if their inning workload increased by 40 innings a year rather than 30? Maybe this study is indeed out there and I just haven't seen it.

[And That]

The concept of rigid innings limitations really irritates me. Seems like just as many pitchers are getting hurt now as in previous years. Has there ever been a real study performed that definitively shows pitchers get hurt at a significantly greater frequency if the "maximum 30 inning increase from the previous season" rule is violated? Or is this some baseball myth dreamed up by a bunch of baseball executives 20 years ago and has no statistical evidence to back it up?

I would assume teams and outside groups like Driveline have studied this at length, yes. It may have been based in folklore, but if teams are still doing it (or a version of it), I don't think it's a stretch to think they have validated the practice with internal or external due diligence. Too many teams rely heavily on analytics now to let me assume that it hasn't been studied in detail.

[FVBrewerFan]

And I don't think you or anyone else is off base with their guesses either. Just surprised at how few have Peralta in the top 5 next year.

 

Peralta has options, that's why most of us don't have him in the top 5. I don't believe they're looking to trade either Anderson or Davies, they are controlled at reasonable contracts. Peralta will get his opportunity. It really doesn't matter how they're listed in a pecking order, 8-10 guys will start games and the ones who stay healthy and are effective will stick.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Peralta has options, that's why most of us don't have him in the top 5.

 

Fully aware, and I understand the convenience of seeing who has options when trying to solve a perceived logjam. That's a fair point for sure. What I can't fathom is how it would be a good idea to stunt Peralta's development by sending him back to AAA where he has has nothing to prove. If he hadn't shown anything in the majors, then sure, give him more time to season in the minors. But he's been ace-level unhittable. He needs to work on location and control against major league hitters to cut down on free passes. Part of that is simply confidence. Confidence not gained pitching to free-swinging minor league batters who will do nothing to help Freddy make that final step. We'll know at the end of March or early April at the latest when a 5th starter is needed, but conversations I've had with someone who would know, tell me Peralta is here to stay barring injury or a disastrous spring training. Anderson and/or Davies don't even have to go anywhere for there to be a spot for Freddy. But those 2 sure aren't going to stand in the way of giving him the chance to be special.

 

Even if Peralta doesn't improve his command one iota, he's already an average major league pitcher who has shown elite level ability to miss the sweet spot of MLB bats. That's not something a major league team fails to explore fully. The only way to do that is in Milwaukee. I hope people aren't mistaking his late season, virtual shut down for the team not being sold on him. They're protecting one of their most valuable assets for 2019. If he makes a reasonable progression in the control department, you're looking at a guy who could top the rotation. It doesn't make sense not to continue with aggressive development when a guy has responded each and every time to said aggressive development. Scouts, instructors, and front offices love the rare guys who answer every call. You don't backtrack with those types.

[coolhandluke121]

There were a lot of guys ahead of Peralta who got hurt. He also happened to be in Colorado for his AAA start on the same day the Brewers needed an emergency starter. He had a great start and they went with it, but I wouldn't read too much into the fact that he got more opportunities than Woodruff or Burnes. Right place, right time. They don't really seem to have an agenda and prefer to keep their depth and respond to changing circumstances. He could very well win a job in spring training and maybe even be near the top of the rotation, but I doubt that's what they're projecting now and I think it's more likely that his 2019 will be a bit like this one - some time in AAA, some starts for an injury replacement, a few more starts if a veteran struggles for several starts in a row.

 

Bottom line, unless someone creates a lot of unexpected separation in spring training, they'll continue to err on the side of guys with a little more experience, fewer options, and no service time considerations. For example, Peralta certainly hasn't been more consistent or effective than Davies over the last 2 years, so they would have to have a really good reason to choose Peralta over Davies. If they weren't a playoff contender, they might be more committed to trading some vets and developing their youth, but you're probably projecting your own desires to see some fresh young faces more if you think they're planning to start Burnes and Peralta next year. That's not how they operate. They're not cavalier about benching veterans or compromising depth. Peralta and Burnes will have to be clearly better options before Davies and Anderson lose their spots.

[tmwiese55]

I would argue that he has plenty to prove in AAA: Showing he can cut his walks and taking time to develop a change up, even if there are bad results as he does it. Of course, if he shows great strides on this over the offseason and into spring training, whole different ballgame.

 

I just think they'll err on the side of depth like they did this year and since he has options he's one that can bounce back and forth as needed. Basically I think we saw their overall pitching philosophy this year. They know we can't buy elite pitching, so they're going with the depth approach with heavy BP usage. Lots of mid level starters that are interchangeable and no major fall off when guys inevitably get hurt.