2019 rotation

[Fear The Chorizo]

This will be a very interesting offseason in terms of how the surplus arms capable of starting are managed by Stearns - because quite frankly there isn't enough room for all of them.

 

Nelson - ? marks with the shoulder but he's a rotation lock if healthy

Chacin - obviously a rotation spot for 2019

Anderson - Unless he's traded, he's got a rotation spot

 

Davies - will be entering 1st arby year this offseason after an injury-riddled and bad 2018 to date...could dramatically boost his stock with a solid September, perhaps enough to be traded to make room for younger arms. Boras is still his agent and has been critical about their handling of him in the past to preserve service time, so he's not going to be an extension candidate. Even when healthy, he has extended stretches of being bad - but he also can be really good. I'm leery of him longterm due to both inconsistency and shoulder/back issues surfacing on a pitcher with so slight a build. Even if he performs well down the stretch, I'd like to see them try to trade him if they can get solid value in return.

 

Peralta - Assuming good health, he's got to have a presumed rotation spot for 2019. Could still be sent down to AAA if performance warrants, but he's shown enough at the MLB level to be considered a solid back of the rotation starter on a good team as he continues to develop.

 

Guerra - I'm unclear about his control status, but if he's out of minor league options the Brewers are going to struggle to keep him around. Was fantastic for them essentially through the AS break, and has really struggled since - similar to his 2016 season, and he's also had durability concerns. To me he's a great option for rotation filler/bullpen longman, but I doubt the Brewers have room for him in Milwaukee to start the 2019 season and another team could easily pick him up as an inexpensive veteran rotation arm to put into a #5 role or play on a rebuilding team. Brewers will probably be hardpressed to get much of a return for Guerra via trade, as interested teams probably see a decent chance Guerra could wind up released during Spring Training next year. If DS can get something via trade this offseason, I think he's got to pull the trigger.

 

Miley - I believe he's a FA this offseason, and very likely has at least earned himself a 1-2 year contract at a price the Brewers probably won't be comfortable paying considering other internal options and payroll considerations. I really wonder what he could have done with a full healthy season, because he's been impressive with his opportunity. He still walks to many guys, but he's always done that - doubtful he's back, but he's been a fantastic addition to the 2018 squad to help eat innings that otherwise would have been logged by a healthy Jimmy Nelson or Davies.

 

Burnes / Woodruff - I see one of these guys getting a shot in the rotation, with the other either being in the Milwaukee bullpen or AAA rotation to start next year. Longterm I'd like both of them to get a fair shot becoming a starter with the Brewers.

 

Hader - if they don't move to give Hader a rotation shot for 2019, they view him as a reliever and elite one at that that automatically makes their bullpen a strength. It's difficult for me to totally accept that without at least giving him one more extended look as a starter, though. Depending what the Brewers do with Soria and with other trades, I think they could still put together a quality bullpen without Hader in it.

[jjfanec]

Yeah I know we are in the midst of a playoff chase but after watching Burnes and Woodruff I have been wondering what next year's rotation will look like. Here isy ranking as to the most likely to be a starting pitcher for the Brewers next year. This is only guys currently on the roster.

1. Chacin. No reason to doubt him

2. Anderson. I don't see him getting traded and if they can figure out then home run issue he seems like a lock

3. Burnes. They have already said he is going to be a starter and he isn't going to be in the minors

4. Nelson. I just don't know about the injury. He is obviously safe if healthy

5. Peralta. I am just not convinced he is a starter long term

6. Miley. I think he has become too expensive to resign

7. Davies. Top trade candidate if healthy

8. Woodruff. He might be in my personal top 5 ahead of Peralta but the Brewers don't seem to value him as much

9. Suter. Can never count him out (edit - actually as pointed out by everyone below you can count him out)

10. Guerra. Please no

 

Chacin is the only guy you can trade and probably get fair value for. I think they would sell Anderson if they got anything close to fair value (get rid of Anderson, can keep Soria/Schoop). I don't see Stearns keeping everyone, so one of Chacin or Anderson will be traded. We would be selling on the low for Davies, Nelson, Guerra, Woodruff - so we are not getting rid of these guys. I don't see paying Miley/Gonzalez what they could get as a free agent, but if for some reason they are lowballed by league....

 

1. Anderson/Chacin (one traded away)

2. Burnes

3. Davies

4. Nelson

5. Woodruff

6. Guerra/Peralta

 

Wilkerson/Houser/Derby as backups. With Z.Brown and/or Supak maybe ready midseason?

[KeithStone53151]

Hader needs to make the changeup a priority this offseason if he's going to move to the rotation, similar to how he made his slider a priority. He probably should make the changeup a priority regardless, even if the plan is to stay in the bullpen. Would make him that much tougher against RH bats...I mean, is 493 OPS against RH bats really good enough?

[reillymcshane]

I'll go: Chacin, Anderson, Davies, Nelson and Burnes. Peralta will be next in line, and will get plenty of opportunity.

 

Chacin, Anderson, Davies, Nelson - Chacin and Anderson are not going to change much. They are what they are - which are solid 3-4 type starters. That's great to have. Davies is probably there as well, but after struggling much of 2018, we will see how he plays out the rest of the year. Like Anderson and Chacin, in 2016-17, he showed he's a solid mid-rotation guy. As for Nelson, he offers more upside, but we will have to see how he comes back from his injury. If he can, he offers the highest ceiling, and thus should be given lots of time and opportunity to round into his 2017 form.

 

Burnes - he has a nice repertoire and has had some success at the ML level. Maybe he won't be a #1 level pitcher, but the overall package is very good. Also, he will be 'safer' than a guy like Peralta, who has issue at times with his command. Plus, he will be cheap for several years, which is always a positive for the Brewers.

 

Peralta - I think the team will continue to start him. He will get plenty of opportunities with Davies and Nelson coming off of injuries, plus with whatever injuries arise. Freddy offers some really interesting upside - but with his erratic command, it may be a struggle to tap into that potential.

 

Miley - I don't think the Crew should overpay for a guy who has been erratic of the the last few years, but I can understand the attraction. Veteran left hander (which we don't have in the rotation), very good in 2018. That would be nice to have. If he could be had on a one or two year deal at a reasonable price, I'd be fine with bringing him back. But I'm guessing someone overpays for him, so we will move on. Just a guess.

 

Woodruff - I wouldn't be surprised if Woodruff ends up in the bullpen next season, with the potential to move him back to the rotation in 2020. Again, just a guess.

 

FA signings - A reclamation project - like Miley was in 2018 - is always a strong possibility. Find a guy who will take a minor league deal, and stash him at AAA until (and if) needed.

 

I don't see a starting pitcher signing. The best ones will command too much money, and we don't need average starters. We have a lot of options who project to be averagish. No need to overspend on one.

 

Trade - The Brewers will kick the tires on the usual suspects, Thor, deGrom, MadBaum, but the price will likely be too high (Hiura, Burnes, more).

 

EDIT: I forgot all about Guerra. Oh well. He'll figure in somewhere.

[jjfanec]

I'll go: Chacin, Anderson, Davies, Nelson and Burnes. Peralta will be next in line, and will get plenty of opportunity.

 

Chacin, Anderson, Davies, Nelson - Chacin and Anderson are not going to change much. They are what they are - which are solid 3-4 type starters. That's great to have. Davies is probably there as well, but after struggling much of 2018, we will see how he plays out the rest of the year. Like Anderson and Chacin, in 2016-17, he showed he's a solid mid-rotation guy. As for Nelson, he offers more upside, but we will have to see how he comes back from his injury. If he can, he offers the highest ceiling, and thus should be given lots of time and opportunity to round into his 2017 form.

 

I agree with most of what you said but I think you overrate most number 4 starters and in the process underrate the Brewers group if you guys are 3-4 starters. Chacin has the 13th best ERA in the NL. His WHIP is right there too. There are 15 NL teams. I dont think Chacin is a number 1 but I dont see how he hasnt been a 2 this year, at worst a 3. Chase even on a down year has an ERA under 4. I think you could make the case that with Jimmy, Chacin and Chase you have 3 guys who could be top 3 starters on a lot of teams. Davies is probably right there too. They dont have a Cy Young guy but I think they return 4 guys who have shown in the past year or two they are number 3 or better starters.

[FVBrewerFan]

Does Guerra have option left for next season? Pretty cut and dried for me, if he has an option nice #6/7 option to have around. If not, move on from him.

[jjfanec]

Does Guerra have option left for next season? Pretty cut and dried for me, if he has an option nice #6/7 option to have around. If not, move on from him.

 

He had an option left going into this season. No clue if he used it or how that all works. I let the people who know way more than me explain all that

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Chris Sale is the most difficult starting pitcher in baseball to get a hit off of (.175 BAA). Max Scherzer is second (.179 BAA). Freddy Peralta would sandwich right between those two (.178 BAA) if he had enough innings to qualify.

[reillymcshane]

Chris Sale is the most difficult starting pitcher in baseball to get a hit off of (.175 BAA). Max Scherzer is second (.179 BAA). Freddy Peralta would sandwich right between those two (.178 BAA) if he had enough innings to qualify.

He also has the worst walk rate in all of baseball - if he qualified. If you looked at pitchers with 70 innings or more pitched, he has the 8th worst rate.

 

This is what makes Freddy so interesting. If he can just harness his command a little more, he could be special. He has never shown to have that ability on a consistent basis in the minors - or majors.

[wildcat83]

Most people have Nelson slotting back into the rotation. Given that he has pitched zero innings this year, I would assume that they would have him on some sort of innings limit for next season. I don't see him going from zero to 200 innings pitched. With that how do you put him in the rotation? Pitch him from the start of the season to whenever he hits his limit? Be extremely conservative with innings early in the year to allow him to pitch into the postseason?

 

The innings limit would be the only factor that would make me think that the bullpen is a serious possibility for Jimmy next season.

 

FA signing/Trade

Chacin

Anderson

Peralta

Burnes

 

Bullpen:

Jeffress

Hader

Knebel

Soria

Williams

Cedeno

Woodruff

[pacopete4]

Nelson didn't come back this year but that also gives him a full season and offseason to build up arm strength.

[And That]

Does Guerra have option left for next season?

Yes.

[LouisEly]

I'm not writing off Guerra just yet - he's pitched more innings this year than any prior year (and missed a big chunk of last year). He was effective until about 3-4 starts ago; I think he's just run out of gas. He may be more effective as a long reliever/spot starter though if he can't get up to 180 innings.

 

As others have said, it comes down to Nelson. If he's healthy and ready to go, then you set your depth at eight major-league ready starters between the majors and AAA.

 

In AAA the three backups are Peralta, Zack Brown, and one of Guerra/Wilkerson (and beyond that you have Supak, Webb, and perhaps Diplan).

 

That leaves five in the rotation to choose between Nelson, Chacin, Davies, Anderson, Burnes, Woodruff, and Houser. If Miley is back, that's eight to choose from.

 

I think at least one of Anderson/Davies/Chacin get traded, two if Miley is back. One of Woodruff/Houser starts, the other to the bullpen.

 

Re: Woodruff - how many starting pitching prospects come up and put up great numbers right from the get-go? Not many. I see him as being a lot like Foltynewicz who took three years to adjust to the majors, and Atlanta is really glad they stuck with him as a starter. Woodruff may spend 2019 in the bullpen, but he'll get a shot at the rotation.

 

Overall strategy - accumulate as much starting pitching as possible and trade the excess to upgrade at other positions or help restock the farm system.

[jjfanec]

Most people have Nelson slotting back into the rotation. Given that he has pitched zero innings this year, I would assume that they would have him on some sort of innings limit for next season. I don't see him going from zero to 200 innings pitched. With that how do you put him in the rotation? Pitch him from the start of the season to whenever he hits his limit? Be extremely conservative with innings early in the year to allow him to pitch into the postseason?

 

Do they really do this with innings limits? Most starters who have pitched full years before seem to come back and pick up where they left off innings wise

[KeithStone53151]

Most people have Nelson slotting back into the rotation. Given that he has pitched zero innings this year, I would assume that they would have him on some sort of innings limit for next season. I don't see him going from zero to 200 innings pitched. With that how do you put him in the rotation? Pitch him from the start of the season to whenever he hits his limit? Be extremely conservative with innings early in the year to allow him to pitch into the postseason?

 

Do they really do this with innings limits? Most starters who have pitched full years before seem to come back and pick up where they left off innings wise

 

I agree, they probably won't have much of an innings limit if any. Usually the guys coming off injury that get an innings limit are younger dudes, Strasburg and Harvey were much younger than Nelson when coming back from injury...innings limits made sense. Nelson is 29. Good to go.

[homer]

Here is a list of Free Agent pitchers:

 

Madison Bumgarner (29) — $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

Trevor Cahill (31)

Carlos Carrasco (32) — $9.75MM club option with a $662,500 buyout

Bartolo Colon (46)

Patrick Corbin (29)

Marco Estrada (35)

Nathan Eovaldi (29)

Doug Fister (35) — $4.5MM club option with a $500K buyout

Jaime Garcia (32)

Gio Gonzalez (33)

Miguel Gonzalez (35)

Cole Hamels (35) — $20MM club option with a $6MM buyout

Jason Hammel (36) — $12MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout

J.A. Happ (36)

Matt Harvey (30)

Jeremy Hellickson (32)

Derek Holland (32)

Hisashi Iwakuma (35)

Clayton Kershaw (31) — can opt out of remaining two years, $65MM

Dallas Keuchel (31)

Francisco Liriano (35)

Jordan Lyles (28) — $3.5MM club option with a $250K buyout

Lance Lynn (32)

Matt Moore (30) — $10MM club option with a $750K buyout

Charlie Morton (35)

Wily Peralta (30) — $3MM club option with a $25K buyout

Martin Perez (28) — $7.5MM club option with a $750K buyout

Drew Pomeranz (30)

David Price (33) — can opt out of remaining four years and $127MM

Garrett Richards (31)

Tyson Ross (32)

Hyun-Jin Ryu (32)

CC Sabathia (38)

Chris Sale (30) — $15MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Anibal Sanchez (35)

Ervin Santana (36) — $14MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Hector Santiago (31)

James Shields (37) — $16MM club option with a $2MM buyout

Chris Tillman (31)

Josh Tomlin (34)

Adam Wainwright (37)

 

Not all that awe inspiring but maybe a guy like Corbin could work depending on years/money although I think someone is going to overpay for him. Ryu has been good but injured. Wouldn't want him for more than a year + option.

[KeithStone53151]

I'd love to see us go after Garrett Richards. Kershaw and maybe Bumgarner are the only guys on that list with better stuff than him, and I doubt either player changes teams.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'd love to see us go after Garrett Richards. Kershaw and maybe Bumgarner are the only guys on that list with better stuff than him, and I doubt either player changes teams.

 

Tommy John surgery in July. Likely out until 2020

[pacopete4]

Where’s next years Chacin on that list? Do we need another arm with all the studs the crew has coming through? I don’t think we do.

[tmwiese55]

Thanks for the list. Doubt we pony up the money for Corbin. And wouldn't want to really even go for a 3 yr Chacin type deal with anyone remaining there. So looking at next year's version of Miley, assuming Miley now gets a legit contract from someone instead of league min. Gio actually could be one, cheap one year deal to try and rebound from this bad year. Ryu is another. Maybe Lancy Lynn too since he didn't do enough to warrant a legit deal. Harvey might have to go that route too.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Where’s next years Chacin on that list? Do we need another arm with all the studs the crew has coming through? I don’t think we do.

 

I don't see much of anything on that list that has more upside that what we have in house. That's why I think they'll go into the offseason with a "Go Big or Go Home" mentality. If a TOR ace-type becomes available, expect the Brewers to be in the thick of the bidding for him. Otherwise, other than a Miley-like reclamation project or two, I doubt you see any pitchers of significance signed. They already have a bunch of #3-4 types.

[FVBrewerFan]

Where’s next years Chacin on that list? Do we need another arm with all the studs the crew has coming through? I don’t think we do.

 

I think it helps Guerra can be back with option in 2019, as he can be the fallback if Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff don't work out...injuries to the vets, etc.

 

Anderson

Chacin

Davies

Burnes

Peralta

Woodruff

 

There's a chance not all 6 will be healthy/ ready on opening day. If they are, Woodruff or Peralta can start in AAA until someone is injured/ ineffective. We all know you'll need at least 8 or 9 starters.

 

Miley could be back for a reasonable contract, which would push both Peralta/Woodruff out of the rotation temporarily. But I agree, it's time for the young guns to get their spot in the rotation. Peralta you could argue has some things to work on, but Burnes should absolutely start the season in the rotation. He will have his struggles, but that's going to happen even if you wait another year.

 

These are the guys Stearns wanted to protect, so take the training wheels off. And I think they will.

[pacopete4]

Where’s next years Chacin on that list? Do we need another arm with all the studs the crew has coming through? I don’t think we do.

 

I think it helps Guerra can be back with option in 2019, as he can be the fallback if Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff don't work out...injuries to the vets, etc.

 

Anderson

Chacin

Davies

Burnes

Peralta

Woodruff

 

There's a chance not all 6 will be healthy/ ready on opening day. If they are, Woodruff or Peralta can start in AAA until someone is injured/ ineffective. We all know you'll need at least 8 or 9 starters.

 

Miley could be back for a reasonable contract, which would push both Peralta/Woodruff out of the rotation temporarily. But I agree, it's time for the young guns to get their spot in the rotation. Peralta you could argue has some things to work on, but Burnes should absolutely start the season in the rotation. He will have his struggles, but that's going to happen even if you wait another year.

 

These are the guys Stearns wanted to protect, so take the training wheels off. And I think they will.

 

And you didn’t even list Nelson.

[djoctagone]

But the real question will be, "who has option years left?"

 

Davies has one. Burnes will have a couple. It may be less performance and more... who can the Crew send down and not risk losing?

davies isn't burning his second option this year, despite being optioned last month. burnes hasn't been optioned yet in his brief major league career, so he still has three.

[djoctagone]

Does Guerra have option left for next season? Pretty cut and dried for me, if he has an option nice #6/7 option to have around. If not, move on from him.

 

He had an option left going into this season. No clue if he used it or how that all works. I let the people who know way more than me explain all that

guerra spent less than 20 days optioned in 2018, so his option was not burned.