2019 rotation

[jjfanec]

Yeah I know we are in the midst of a playoff chase but after watching Burnes and Woodruff I have been wondering what next year's rotation will look like. Here isy ranking as to the most likely to be a starting pitcher for the Brewers next year. This is only guys currently on the roster.

1. Chacin. No reason to doubt him

2. Anderson. I don't see him getting traded and if they can figure out then home run issue he seems like a lock

3. Burnes. They have already said he is going to be a starter and he isn't going to be in the minors

4. Nelson. I just don't know about the injury. He is obviously safe if healthy

5. Peralta. I am just not convinced he is a starter long term

6. Miley. I think he has become too expensive to resign

7. Davies. Top trade candidate if healthy

8. Woodruff. He might be in my personal top 5 ahead of Peralta but the Brewers don't seem to value him as much

9. Suter. Can never count him out (edit - actually as pointed out by everyone below you can count him out)

10. Guerra. Please no

[JohnBriggs12]

Yeah I know we are in the midst of a playoff chase but after watching Burnes and Woodruff I have been wondering what next year's rotation will look like. Here isy ranking as to the most likely to be a starting pitcher for the Brewers next year. This is only guys currently on the roster.

1. Chacin. No reason to doubt him

2. Anderson. I don't see him getting traded and if they can figure out then home run issue he seems like a lock

3. Burnes. They have already said he is going to be a starter and he isn't going to be in the minors

4. Nelson. I just don't know about the injury. He is obviously safe if healthy

5. Peralta. I am just not convinced he is a starter long term

6. Miley. I think he has become too expensive to resign

7. Davies. Top trade candidate if healthy

8. Woodruff. He might be in my personal top 5 ahead of Peralta but the Brewers don't seem to value him as much

9. Suter. Can never count him out

10. Guerra. Please no

 

Eh, I don't think Miley will be all that expensive. He seems to be lefthanded version of Chacin. Agree that Woodruff has a shot to put himself in the picture with a good month. It's not the time to deal Davies. I think Anderson is the most likely to be dealt, but even then it's less than 50-50 as they need to upgrade the rotation, not deal it away. Peralta is still very young and showed enough to give another shot. Suter's not a factor as it takes 13 months to recover from TJ. Maybe he gets a bullpen spot next Sept. Agree that they'll move on from Guerra or move him to the pen permanently. His stuff is still pretty good.

[BrewCrewForever]

Chacin, Anderson and Burnes seem like locks to me. Nelson of course if healthy and ready to go. That leaves one spot for Peralta, Woodruff, Davies and Miley. Miley as stated though may have secured himself a contract the Brewers won't match and just go with a different in house option.

[MrTPlush]

Honestly I could see them trading Burnes as part of a package for a TOR starter and then bring in another cheap option to fill out the rotation.

 

That being said:

 

1) Jimmy Nelson (obviously will get a rotation spot back)

2) Jhoulys Chacin (another obvious lock)

3) Chase Anderson (homeruns or not he is a solid starter)

4)Corbin Burnes (as it stands he will definitely get a spot)

5) Outside Addition

 

I don’t think Freddy Peralta is getting a rotation spot. He is too young and shaky for them to depend on him an entire year in a playoff chase. Wouldn’t shock me at all if he is traded.

 

After such a terrible second half (and shaky year in general) for the rotation I just can’t envision them trying to fill it out internally top to bottom. Some type of outside addition will be made and since we are already loaded with decent rotational arms a TOR makes too much sense.

[jjfanec]

Honestly I could see them trading Burnes as part of a package for a TOR starter and then bring in another cheap option to fill out the rotation.

 

That being said:

 

1) Jimmy Nelson (obviously will get a rotation spot back)

2) Jhoulys Chacin (another obvious lock)

3) Chase Anderson (homeruns or not he is a solid starter)

4)Corbin Burnes (as it stands he will definitely get a spot)

5) Outside Addition

 

I don’t think Freddy Peralta is getting a rotation spot. He is too young and shaky for them to depend on him an entire year in a playoff chase. Wouldn’t shock me at all if he is traded.

 

After such a terrible second half (and shaky year in general) for the rotation I just can’t envision them trying to fill it out internally top to bottom. Some type of outside addition will be made and since we are already loaded with decent rotational arms a TOR makes too much sense.

 

Is adding Nelson, if healthy, different though (not the same as an outside additional but not truly internal to this year's rotation)? He has top of the rotation stuff obviously. I do think you are right that the Brewers have the opportunity to make a trade for outside pitching. That seemed to hard to factor so I was just looking in house

[clancyphile]

Top 5: Chacin, Miley (if re-signed), Davies (still relatively cheap), Anderson, Burnes

Bubble: Nelson (health an issue - maybe 60-day DL and rehab?), Guerra, Wilkerson, Gonzales (if re-signed)

Moved to pen: Peralta, Woodruff

Out for season: Suter (2020?)

 

Emerging from minors to AAA: Zach Brown, Trey Supak, Cam Roegner, Bubba Derby

[Lathund]

Firstly, you can actually count out Suter. In anything other than the extreme best case scenario, he's out for the whole season.

 

To me there are two questions to answer first: The first one is whether Jimmy is back or not. Due to how good he can be, that should be properly evaluated first and him being given every chance. The only other real personel issue is whether they resign Miley or not. Which depends on how much he'd cost, how sustainable you believe his low ERA to be with that K rate and ensuing FIP/xFIP (DRA likes him the most out of all the current starters though, interestingly enough) and how much they value the young starters. Looking at how committed they were to him during his injury struggles, I think the team likes him a lot.

 

Anyway, I'll go ahead assuming he'll not be back. Chacin is a lock for next year. Nelson and Davies should be in there as well based on their record, and that any trade would be selling really low. Anderson is the one I'm not too sure on. Apart from the HRs he's mostly still fine, so depends on whether you think that's noise or not, and if it isn't then whether it's fixable. 3 years of control, with 2 of them team options, remaining means he's a possible trade candidate to someone who believes the HR issues can be fixed (Or to a team with a HR-unfriendly home park perhaps), but I also don't think the trade value is high enough for it to make sense.

 

So I'd look to start the year with Chacin, Nelson, Davies, Anderson and Burnes in the rotation. Woodruff and Peralta as #6 and 7. I'm a big believer in the concept of having quality multi-inning relievers in the pen, not just mopup guys but guys who can do what Woodruff did yesterday, or what Montgomery does for the Cubs. I prefer that method of bullpen preservation to the AAA shuttle method. So if the team commits to that and give them long enough outings to keep them stretched out, I'd have Woodruff or Peralta in that role; probably Woodruff. Peralta in AAA to work on control and offspeed/breaking stuff to complement the fastball. As #6 and #7, the inevitable injuries and underperformances should see them both get plenty of time.

 

Beyond that, Zack Brown could be this years Burnes, and should be knocking on the door as well. Houser, Derby, Wilkerson are in house options in the event of an injury crisis. A minor league FA bounceback candidate to be added for that extra bit of depth.

 

Notice the lack of signings/trades in here. To me that's what you do only if the injury returnees (Davies, Nelson) and prospect arms (mainly Peralta, Woodruff, Burnes. But also a guy like Brown) don't pan out.

[jjfanec]

Totally forgot the time frame for suter. Count him out completely

[Ennder]

Peralta is a fantastic arm to have in the minors for depth as the #6 or #7 guy though. I would keep trying him as a starter and get him to really work on being effective out of the stretch.

[clancyphile]

My sense is the Brewers could get Miley back - arguably, Derek Johnson worked some magic, and the Crew did stand by him with the injury issues. That could buy some loyalty in return. He got almost $9 million in 2017, but that and 2016 were bad years, and 2018 had injuries.

 

In any case, what would his likely deal be? I'd go with a Chase Anderson-type deal. Call it four years, $34 million.

 

Gio Gonzales may take a one-year "show me deal," but I think a more solid approach would be a Chacin-like contract, only with team options, like the deal the Crew signed with Jeremy Jeffress.

[clancyphile]

Peralta is a fantastic arm to have in the minors for depth as the #6 or #7 guy though. I would keep trying him as a starter and get him to really work on being effective out of the stretch.

 

I think that would be a good idea - if the Crew can keep Miley and/or Gonzales in the fold for 2019. He'll have option years.

 

But to me, Peralta emerging with Woodruff as right-handed versions of Hader is not a bad thing, either.

[jjfanec]

Peralta is a fantastic arm to have in the minors for depth as the #6 or #7 guy though. I would keep trying him as a starter and get him to really work on being effective out of the stretch.

 

Being able to have Peralta in the minors would be great. I wouldn't convert him to a reliever yet. If the team did resign Miley and Nelson is healthy then Peralta could easily be in the minors with Anderson, Chacin and Burnes taking up the other spots. Woodruff could be in the majors as a long inning reliever or spot start guy.

 

The question is where does Davies fit? You need your potential rotation to be 8 deep with injuries. Woodruff and Peralta could get you close.

[MrTPlush]

A half year is only going to help you so much on the open market. More likely he gets a Chacin-like deal. Depending on the market he might get 3/$21ish. He could be a fantastic bargain like Chacin was.

 

Jimmy Nelson will be healthy by the time next year starts. He is fairly healthy already. He will get his spot back...as far as what kind of addition he will be compared to this year...total mystery. I don’t think you can call him our TOR addition for next year. That’s a dream scenario.

 

I just don’t see Davies ending up with a rotation spot...if he does, yikes. Not that he isn’t a nice pitcher, but we just have so many guys better than him. I already see four guys obviously better than him and I fully hope/expect they can bring in a really good pitcher to bolster our rotation. Maybe he surprises starting today and can have some momentum going into the offseason. He wouldn’t be a terrible guy to have stashed in the minors when injuries happen. A nice little luxury.

[clancyphile]

A half year is only going to help you so much on the open market. More likely he gets a Chacin-like deal. Depending on the market he might get 3/$21ish. He could be a fantastic bargain like Chacin was.

 

Jimmy Nelson will be healthy by the time next year starts. He is fairly healthy already. He will get his spot back...as far as what kind of addition he will be compared to this year...total mystery. I don’t think you can call him our TOR addition for next year. That’s a dream scenario.

 

I just don’t see Davies ending up with a rotation spot...if he does, yikes. Not that he isn’t a nice pitcher, but we just have so many guys better than him. I already see four guys obviously better than him and I fully hope/expect they can bring in a really good pitcher to bolster our rotation. Maybe he surprises starting today and can have some momentum going into the offseason. He wouldn’t be a terrible guy to have stashed in the minors when injuries happen. A nice little luxury.

 

Davies, when good, is able to go deep into games. If he rebounds, he, Chacin, and Anderson become a very good 1-2-3.

 

Nelson... I'm expecting a 2016 form of Nelson, just from the layoff. Not bad, but lots of better options.

 

But the real question will be, "who has option years left?"

 

Davies has one. Burnes will have a couple. It may be less performance and more... who can the Crew send down and not risk losing?

[KeithStone53151]

Dont forget about Josh Hader...

[MrTPlush]

Dont forget about Josh Hader...

 

I know people will push this idea, but I don’t see why now they wil lsuddenly let him start. I just don’t see it. Losing him in the bullpen would be a bit crippling.

[jjfanec]

I would be shocked to see hader in the rotation next year. Has there been anything from the Brewers saying this is a possibility. I would actually just like the Brewers to figure out how to maximize his innings better next year.

[clancyphile]

Dont forget about Josh Hader...

 

I see Hader and Woodruff as a 1-2 shut-down tandem, with Jeffress, Cedeno, Knebel, and Soria. Perhaps one of Burnes or Peralta also goes there. A shut-down bullpen and a good offense can go a long way.

[3and2Fastball]

I'd like to see them go out and trade for or sign as a free agent another slightly under the radar pitcher like Chacin. A ground ball pitcher who won't break the bank but will help the team.

 

Burnes

Anderson

Chacin

Peralta

?

 

Agree trading Davies would be good. Trade Woodruff too if he's the Villar/Scooter of pitchers and you don't value him and aren't going to use him.

[82brewcrew82]

Davies, when good, is able to go deep into games. If he rebounds, he, Chacin, and Anderson become a very good 1-2-3.

 

Nelson... I'm expecting a 2016 form of Nelson, just from the layoff. Not bad, but lots of better options.

 

But the real question will be, "who has option years left?"

 

Davies has one. Burnes will have a couple. It may be less performance and more... who can the Crew send down and not risk losing?

Couldn't disagree more strongly. Historically Davies averages less than six innings per start just like Anderson/Chacin/Gonzalez/Miley/Peralta and who ever else you want to put in that group of interchangeable pieces with average stuff. Every one of them is just as likely to have a bad start as a good one every single time out, just zero consistency. None of them have been truly horrible, but none of them are ever going to be great consistently. To me, a nice 1-2-3 is Greinke, Gallardo and Marcum and we don't have anything close to that. We have a whole lot of Randy Wolf. Nelson-Burnes-Chacin-Woodruff-Anderson is what I'm hoping for. Peralta is your sixth and then sign a couple of depth guys to stash in AAA. Do what ever is prudent with the rest of chaff. At least that rotation (assuming Nelson recovers) has some upside.

 

Obviously depth matters and option years play into that. However, I don't think there is any chance that a player having options is the determining factor in deciding who will or won't be in the rotation.

[RollieTime]

I don’t understand why Davies is viewed so poorly by quite a few people. He’s been arguably their most consistent pitcher for over two years. He’s still young and will continue to improve. He’s under team control for 3 more seasons after this year.

 

He will be in the rotation next season. His stock is at an all time low from being hurt most of the season. Stearns won’t give away a player of Davies’ caliber. Any other team in baseball would take a player as good as him to fill out the back end of their rotation. For being a team that generally doesn’t produce much pitching, it’s odd that so many people just want him gone or not in the rotation.

 

Davies will be in the rotation with Nelson, Chacín, and Anderson. There is only one spot open for grabs and that final spot will most likely go to either Peralta or Burnes.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don’t understand why Davies is viewed so poorly by quite a few people. He’s been arguably their most consistent pitcher for over two years. He’s still young and will continue to improve. He’s under team control for 3 more seasons after this year.

 

He will be in the rotation next season. His stock is at an all time low from being hurt most of the season. Stearns won’t give away a player of Davies’ caliber. Any other team in baseball would take a player as good as him to fill out the back end of their rotation. For being a team that generally doesn’t produce much pitching, it’s odd that so many people just want him gone or not in the rotation.

 

Davies will be in the rotation with Nelson, Chacín, and Anderson. There is only one spot open for grabs and that final spot will most likely go to either Peralta or Burnes.

 

Couldn't agree more. Davies is a proven mid rotation starter. The real Zach Davies was on display yesterday. Nelson is still a question mark but going into the season next year, he's got a spot. Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff could allow them to deal Anderson, but with some uncertainty about Nelson, that might not be the right time.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don’t understand why Davies is viewed so poorly by quite a few people. He’s been arguably their most consistent pitcher for over two years. He’s still young and will continue to improve. He’s under team control for 3 more seasons after this year.

 

He will be in the rotation next season. His stock is at an all time low from being hurt most of the season. Stearns won’t give away a player of Davies’ caliber. Any other team in baseball would take a player as good as him to fill out the back end of their rotation. For being a team that generally doesn’t produce much pitching, it’s odd that so many people just want him gone or not in the rotation.

 

Davies will be in the rotation with Nelson, Chacín, and Anderson. There is only one spot open for grabs and that final spot will most likely go to either Peralta or Burnes.

 

Don't sleep on them resigning Wade Miley either. Of course, he could very well be possibly pitching himself into a solid multi-year deal. If that's the case, i'd be leery.

[JosephC]

I'm all for putting Hader in the rotation. Just too dominant this year to leave him in the bullpen. Sure, he impacts fewer games by being in the rotation, but as a starter he'd be a safe bet to throw 180+ innings and the Brewers will only get ~80 innings out of him this year. For all the talk about needing a top of the rotation starter, the Brewers might already have one in the bullpen. And at this point, they will not get a top of the rotation starter from outside of the organization unless they are willing to deal Yelich. They don't have enough ammo in the minor leagues and they definitely will not be willing to make that type of investment on the free agent market.

 

Stearns will have the entire off-season to fill the bullpen hole.

[Roderick]

Yeah I know we are in the midst of a playoff chase but after watching Burnes and Woodruff I have been wondering what next year's rotation will look like. Here isy ranking as to the most likely to be a starting pitcher for the Brewers next year. This is only guys currently on the roster.

1. Chacin. No reason to doubt him

2. Anderson. I don't see him getting traded and if they can figure out then home run issue he seems like a lock

3. Burnes. They have already said he is going to be a starter and he isn't going to be in the minors

4. Nelson. I just don't know about the injury. He is obviously safe if healthy

5. Peralta. I am just not convinced he is a starter long term

6. Miley. I think he has become too expensive to resign

7. Davies. Top trade candidate if healthy

8. Woodruff. He might be in my personal top 5 ahead of Peralta but the Brewers don't seem to value him as much

9. Suter. Can never count him out (edit - actually as pointed out by everyone below you can count him out)

10. Guerra. Please no

 

Chacin is the only guy you can trade and probably get fair value for. I think they would sell Anderson if they got anything close to fair value (get rid of Anderson, can keep Soria/Schoop). I don't see Stearns keeping everyone, so one of Chacin or Anderson will be traded. We would be selling on the low for Davies, Nelson, Guerra, Woodruff - so we are not getting rid of these guys. I don't see paying Miley/Gonzalez what they could get as a free agent, but if for some reason they are lowballed by league....

 

1. Anderson/Chacin (one traded away)

2. Burnes

3. Davies

4. Nelson

5. Woodruff

6. Guerra/Peralta

 

Wilkerson/Houser/Derby as backups. With Z.Brown and/or Supak maybe ready midseason?