2018 Green Bay Packers Season Thread: 6-9-1: Mike McCarthy Fired, Philbin Interim HC

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It's revisionist in the sense that when he makes the same faces and says the same stuff nobody cares if they are winning. Changing one's view on a previously accepted thing = revisionist. Rodgers personality did not change in 2018. He has always had a tinge of confidence, cockiness or arrogance to him, the adjective just gets interchanged based on how many wins they have.

 

If they recover and go 12-4 the narrative will be that he's "playing loose" again and "having fun!" It's the same sports radio blubber babble with many athletes in many sports. It's never allowed to be as simple as "they sucked and now they're better."

[OldSchoolSnapper]

He's made it a point multiple times this year that he himself has missed the mark or played poorly. I don't know what else people expect. I don't think any body language or post game lingo would make people happy. If he's smiling and patting guys on the butt he has no competive fire and isn't taking it seriously or some other dumb thing. They need to win or the Colin Cowherds of the world will always be pulling the reasons why out of thin air.

[adambr2]

Of course it doesn't matter when they are winning. That's why Tom Brady has gotten a pass his entire career. I never cared about the commercials, the Hollywood side of Rodgers, and the arrogance about him when he was playing well. But he's not.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Yes and he's done the exact same things when they are. He's always yelled at receivers. He has always been frustrated when the offense isn't set when he wants to be. He's always growled at the sidelines when he doesn't like a playcall. At what point do you just accept that the team is worse and maybe Rodgers doesn't have to visit the spirit master atop Kilimanjaro to "get right"?

 

He is fine. They will be fine. This "bad leader" and "ego" stuff making the rounds again is such a cold take. Do we really think his personaliity, talent or both changed that drastically? Or is more likely the massive amount of roster turnover had consequences?

[adambr2]

No, I think his play has changed, and that's a bigger problem than any of that other stuff.

[Fear The Chorizo]

No, I think his play has changed, and that's a bigger problem than any of that other stuff.

 

He's still a great QB, but he can't do the same things he did 5 seasons ago physically - that's just father time. To me, his 2018 has looked alot like a great player trying to adjust to where his still potent but waning physical gifts can take him, and he unfortunately didn't have 1/2 the season's-worth of practice time due to injury. Injuries are part of the game, but they are also really starting to pile up for him (knees, calves, collar bones, concussions, foot bones, etc...). Rodgers always talks about playing to/through 40...I wonder if that's really going to happen. He comes off as a guy that may want to do something else in life beyond football, and also is someone that may opt to hang 'em up early rather than having injuries/eroding skills force him out.

 

I think the knee issue was a big deal - I think the talent limitations of his surrounding cast was also a big deal, particularly the stable of talented but young receivers and an O-line that really isn't very good. That type of surrounding cast needs to be good enough when you're the highest-paid player in the game - for Rodgers of 5 seasons ago it probably would have been good enough to make the playoffs. My hope is that the roster talent level can dramatically improve along with getting a fresh coaching perspective to get some juice back inside this organization. The last few years have felt very S.F. Giants-esque in terms of a talented but fading franchise who couldn't stop from eroding into an also-ran organization because they've gotten stale at the top.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

If Rodgers has slowed physically, I don't see it. He can still run, his arm looks fine to me. I haven't seen any deterioration of skills. This season, for now, I am giving a mulligan. He gets hurt in Week 1, takes a half a season to get healthy, and by then they are exposed as a mediocre to bad team. It was just a sloppy year. He's trying to overcompensate while playing hurt, simultaneously knowing that with the state of the team he has to be basically perfect for them to do anything whilst throwing to Adams and a bunch of guys. That's happened in the past, and he's wound up being basically perfect. This time he wasn't but I still think it's funny a guy throws ~25+ TDs and 2 picks and we're talking about it like he is the primary reason they aren't very good.

 

Again, there was a time in 2014 where all the talking heads were convinced "age was catching up" to Tom Brady to the point someone asked BB in a presser when it was time to consider a QB change. That clip is on YouTube somewhere.

 

All this stuff about his facial expressions and post-game commentary, all of the sudden he can't hit a WR, it's laughable to me IMO. It's the worst roster he's played with and people are forced to accept he's mortal.

 

It's going to be funny when he's the same old guy next year and the media is going to credit the two weeks he spent hiking in the mountains over the summer, or how Coach X got him to "love the game again."

[adambr2]

If Rodgers has slowed physically, I don't see it. He can still run, his arm looks fine to me. I haven't seen any deterioration of skills. This season, for now, I am giving a mulligan. He gets hurt in Week 1, takes a half a season to get healthy, and by then they are exposed as a mediocre to bad team. It was just a sloppy year. He's trying to overcompensate while playing hurt, simultaneously knowing that with the state of the team he has to be basically perfect for them to do anything whilst throwing to Adams and a bunch of guys. That's happened in the past, and he's wound up being basically perfect. This time he wasn't but I still think it's funny a guy throws ~25+ TDs and 2 picks and we're talking about it like he is the primary reason they aren't very good.

 

Again, there was a time in 2014 where all the talking heads were convinced "age was catching up" to Tom Brady to the point someone asked BB in a presser when it was time to consider a QB change. That clip is on YouTube somewhere.

 

All this stuff about his facial expressions and post-game commentary, all of the sudden he can't hit a WR, it's laughable to me IMO. It's the worst roster he's played with and people are forced to accept he's mortal.

 

It's going to be funny when he's the same old guy next year and the media is going to credit the two weeks he spent hiking in the mountains over the summer, or how Coach X got him to "love the game again."

 

Don't agree whatsoever that this is the worst roster he's played with. That's something that becomes so easy to say when your record stinks, but he's done more with far less before. Adams is a true #1, and his O-line isn't nearly as bad as people act. Though he's been heavily underutilized, Jones is a very talented back.

 

TD/INT ratio is also a terrible method of QB evaluation IMO, and I think this year more than any has exposed that. 5 of the 8 most intercepted QBs of all time are in the Hall of Fame. Frankly, I wish he were throwing a few more this year if it meant he was being more decisive, throwing into tighter windows and trusting his receivers more.

 

I do agree that he'll bounce back. By no means am I saying Aaron Rodgers is done. I understand both Brady and Brees have been through this and I do expect both him and the team to improve greatly in 2019. My critique is simply with his play this year and those why won't admit that his play is a huge part of the problem this year.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

You lost me at O-line. It's the worst one of his career. I agree that Adams is possibly the best WR he's ever had, and Jones has been terribly misused, but that line has no depth at all, and while Bakhtiari is a stud the rest are just OK. Linsley is a good player, the rest are fill-ins. Bulaga is done. Spriggs is looking like a pretty awful 2nd round pick.

 

Stone hands Graham brings nothing to the table. Cobb can't stay on the field. Outside of Adams and Jones and the promise of MVS there is very little strength on that offense. I think there's talent, but much of it is green.

 

And when I said worst roster I meant worst all-around. That defense isn't terrible but it's extremely green. There is basically no veteran presence on it, and it's actually amazing how well it has played with such a skeleton crew.

 

There's no Woodson-esque or young Matthews type player on that defense. The closest thing is Kenny Clark, but he's not playing a position where you get superstar presence. There's no Khalil Mack, no Revis Island type guy on that defense. I think Alexander is a star in the making, but as of now there's no enforcer type on that defense. I suspect that's going to be their #1 mission this offseason. I don't know who's available, but my money is on them going after one of the big pass rushing names on the market.

[homer]

At this point I think it's hard to say how much is Rodgers and how much are receivers. Yes he's obviously been off on some throws for sure but some where it looks like he's off I'm guessing the receivers are at the wrong depth or aren't making a sharp enough cut or whatever. Now some of that is probably bad coaching but some is just not knowing what Rodgers wants or what is normal for the NFL in certain situations which only comes with time.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

There is a curve that's needed to adjust to such turnover. You saw it happen with Favre from '06 to '07 and with Rodgers first season starting from '08 to '09.

 

I'm optimistic for a much better season in '19. If he is with the team next year and can stay healthy, I still think Allison has a future in the league. He was on his way to being a 1,000 yard guy this year through four games. Plus another year with MVS and St. Brown, one of those guys seems prime to break out. The cupboard's not bare, it just wasn't ready yet combined with some misfortune.

[adambr2]

You lost me at O-line. It's the worst one of his career. I agree that Adams is possibly the best WR he's ever had, and Jones has been terribly misused, but that line has no depth at all, and while Bakhtiari is a stud the rest are just OK. Linsley is a good player, the rest are fill-ins. Bulaga is done. Spriggs is looking like a pretty awful 2nd round pick.

 

All of Linsley, Bahktiari, Spriggs, and Bulaga have cumulative 2018 grades of 'above average'. McCray and Taylor both have 'average' grades.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/teams/green-bay-packers/12/roster

 

While PFF isn't the end all be all, but it absolutely supports my argument that the O line struggles are really overblown and amplified greatly by Rodgers' indecisiveness.

 

It isn't the worst O line by his career. Not by a long shot.

 

Offensive lines in general tend to take a really unfair amount of criticism from fans across the board on an annual basis from fans of every team. They're immediately notified when they do their job poorly, but rarely when they do it well. Thus the ratings that don't at all reflect what the fan perspective usually is.

[homer]

Completely forgot about Allison. Hopefully they can find a viable slot replacement for Cobb.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm aware of their PFF ratings and I don't really care. PFF was every fan's favorite source last year we signed "Top 10 corner" Tramon Williams this offseason. We also traded HHCD, the second best safety in the league!

 

Tom Brady, at the time of the HHCD trade, was QB #13. While we're at it, Indecisive Aaron is QB #6 and grading "90+." Which is a bit problematic for what you are trying to say. That rating system is a new way to look at things, but it is completely flawed, especially at a position like OL that is nearly impossible to quantify. Bkahtiari may be the best LT in the league. Linsley is good. The rest of those guys have been plucked off the street, Bulaga is a Matthews on offense. That OL was a glaring problem for many critics preseason, and it came to fruition. It's bad. Rodgers may be ignoring check downs, but outside of Adams nobody is really getting open regularly.

 

If this isn't his worst O-line, 2008 was. But this one is bad. I'm not sure how you can say "not by a long shot." Seems a little hyperbolic. Which ones were worse?

[superfly]

Completely forgot about Allison. Hopefully they can find a viable slot replacement for Cobb.

 

Golden Tate if not looking to the draft.

[trwi7]

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/by-the-numbers/2018/12/17/18144142/on-aaron-rodgers-zack-greinke-and-fip-interceptions-too-careful-packers-streak

[JosephC]

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/by-the-numbers/2018/12/17/18144142/on-aaron-rodgers-zack-greinke-and-fip-interceptions-too-careful-packers-streak

 

Seemed like a fairly ridiculous article to me. Eye-test doesn't indicate that Rodgers drop in completion percentage has anything to do with avoiding interceptions. Seems like Rodgers drop in completion percentage has more to do with way too many inaccurately thrown passes.

[homer]

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/by-the-numbers/2018/12/17/18144142/on-aaron-rodgers-zack-greinke-and-fip-interceptions-too-careful-packers-streak

 

Seemed like a fairly ridiculous article to me. Eye-test doesn't indicate that Rodgers drop in completion percentage has anything to do with avoiding interceptions. Seems like Rodgers drop in completion percentage has more to do with way too many inaccurately thrown passes.

 

He leads the league by far in throwaways. This blurb is from after the New England game and it's not gotten better since then:

 

The 39 extra incompletions have helped tanked Rodgers’ completion percentage, which sits at 60.6 after eight games. His career-low since taking over as a starter is 60.7, set in 2015.

Turn even half his throwaways into completions, and Rodgers’ completion percentage would jump to 66.3 – proof of how impactful the spike in throwaways has been to his overall efficiency.

 

From Dec 10:

Going into Week 14, Rodgers had thrown the ball away 53 times, which is an absurdly high number when you consider that no other team in the NFL has more than 30 throwaways this year.

[tmwiese55]

Wow, good stats. Coaches and he would have to look a bit at the plays since 53 isn't a huge number to analyze and see what else he could've done.

 

From a jabroni watching on TV, it seems like the play designs lack a lot of quick timing routes that used to be a staple. You see on occasion, especially when playing hurry up, but they seem so common when I watch other games or GB's opponents (I admit these days that's not a lot though for me). So it's like the plays are designed to be long developing, which leads to him getting sacked and/or wiggling out of the pocket and then have to decide to chuck it or throw away. I'd add that as something even us watching on TV have probably noticed is the 'dump off' throw to the RB often being right there and he ignores it looking for more. Brady has shown us there's nothing wrong with taking 7 yds at a time on dumps to the RB

[LouisEly]

Rodgers has actually had a ton of time to sit in the pocket today ... no one is getting open, and when they do, he's missing them. Disjointed looking offense today, and Rodgers is the main culprit unfortunately.

 

Also the Bears are good.

I think some are really overlooking this. Well, the defense at least. Not only are they really good... they are also really healthy. Only three defensive players on IR (one who I've never heard of), only two defensive players questionable for the game. Only one offensive starter on IR (Long).

 

Meanwhile the Packers were without Daniels, Clark, Perry, King, Wilkerson, Ryan all on IR and Matthews questionable (but played). Allison and Bell on IR on offense. Bulaga didn't play, Jones left early with a bad knee, Cobb left with a concussion. Oh, and Rodgers nowhere near 100%.

 

It's amazing that the game was as close as it was. It was practically the Packers second string versus the Bears first string.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Rodgers takes fewer chances. When do you do that, in any facet of life? When you don't have confidence. Rodgers doesn't think this team is good enough, today, to overcome an interception. I'm not sure he's wrong.

 

When do you lack confidence? When you lack familiarity. Time and reps will solve a lot of these issues.

[LouisEly]

I totally expect a Randy Moss-esque renaissance from Gordon the rest of the season.

More of a Josh Gordon-esque renaissance:

 

Josh Gordon suspended indefinitely for violating terms of conditional reinstatement

[homer]

I hope Gordon can get the help he needs.

[Point Beer Is Best]

I hope Gordon can get the help he needs.

 

I also hope the NFL adopts a more modern policy towards marijuana use, particularly when it's a safe alternative to the opioids used for pain management. It's one of the few areas where MLB is more progressive than the NFL.

[brewcrewdue80]

I agree with Oldsnapper that the OL is bad. I don't even consider Linsley average. The amount of hurries that 90% of QBs would have been sacks, Rodgers escapes out of the pocket. (To throw the ball away end result) There have been quite a few plays I seen Linsley didn't even touch a DL moving to double team only for a late up the middle blitz or likely lb spy to come right up and disrupt the play. The possitive grades must go to attributing Jones' high per carry avg. With Williams it's 3.7 vs 5.5 and a rb overall of #38 per carry avg.

 

Jones is a young finisher and now on IR. Punishment you take from extending runs for tough 3yards. You have Rodgers avg with escape the pocket runs.

 

The kicker is that just how often with a QB getting out of the pocket do you see GB use rollout pass plays? Especially with these Rookie Receivers who on can only on that play design be running in an area Rodgers is looking. Type of play where you'd think Graham being a TE vet would find a way to sit in a spot for Rodgers to zing to. Yes he's had a pretty terrible year(JG) but I feel the design play calls were not in his favor. Anyway, 13 on IR at the moment. Rodgers has been hurt all year since game 1. As I look at the standing GB can pick as high as #3 and about as low as #15. #17 really, but I assume two teams will be forced to win by facing each other and thus winning more than GB can. By all accounts, that is higher pick than the team stats vs the league would get them. Seem to hand around 16th in most stats and yet looking at around a 10-12th pick? Hopefully they find a stud RT to just insert and play out Rodgers career protecting him.