2018 Green Bay Packers Season Thread: 6-9-1: Mike McCarthy Fired, Philbin Interim HC

[LouisEly]

In that first bracket of players you mentioned, only Daniels is really a surprise. Cobb is always hurt and a vastly overrated player;

Agree that Cobb has had some injuries, but strongly disagree that he is overrated. In fact, I think the biggest personnel issue this year was his and Allison's injuries because it forced rookies to play, and it takes a long time to learn this system and get on the same page as Rodgers. A healthy Cobb and Allison have a huge impact on this offense.

 

Cobb is a talented player (when he's healthy) - you don't need to look any further than the 2016 playoffs or the first game of this season against the Bears to see that.

[JohnBriggs12]

Just went back to look at their schedule out of curiosity:

 

Redskins: 7

Vikings tie: 9

Rams: 17

Patriots: 7

Seahawks: 3

Vikings: 3

Cardinals: 7

 

Those are the Packers second-half point totals against those teams. So besides LAR, they were awful in all those games. To me, this is more indicative than "games decided by X points or less," because a couple of those games are pretty weak. They lost to DET by 8, but really got their teeth kicked in. In the last Vikings game, they're down 10 entering the 4th and end up losing by 7, but the outcome was never really in question and they pretty got dominated after the very beginning.

 

The second half is what happens after someone has a chance to adjust, IMO that's where separation really happens in most NFL games. Most games are still in question at halftime, and the Packers have been an atrocious 2H team this year.

 

I got more curious, so I wanted to see how they stack up quarter by quarter.

 

The Packers are actually one of the better 1Q offenses in the NFL, coming in 8th in scoring. But they drop to 21st in the 2nd, 14th in the 3rd and 20th in the 4th. For as often as they've been behind, that is pretty alarming for a team with Aaron Rodgers.

 

That would seem to support the idea that they are having big trouble with in-game adjustments. This is, in a way, my long-winded way of saying that I think their "close games" line is maybe a bit disingenuous. Adjustments are probably one of the bigger components of winning in the NFL, and they've been really bad at them.

 

They got "their teeth kicked in by Detroit?" They outgained Detroit 521-264, and didn't punt once. Crosby missed 3 relatively short FG in the first half alone and the other two drives were ended by fumbles. So even though they fell behind 24-0, they weren't getting their teeth kicked in.

 

The biggest problem was their inexplicable play calls and execution on third down all year. They refused to run plays designed to get the first down or Rodgers ignored open receivers at the line to gain and continued to try high risk downfield passes instead that resulted in sacks, throwaways, or hail marys with little chance of completion. In recent weeks, their defense became depleted. They could force punts here and there but never could lock a team down for a half.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It was 24-0 at half. Yes, they got their teeth kicked in by Detroit. It is pretty easy to outgain when you go down three touchdowns. If that were any other team you'd agree and not explain it as anything other than a drubbing.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Cobb hasn't hit 900 yards since 2014. He's a slot WR role player that we are paying star money. I'll sick with vastly overrated. He's the type of guy New England lets walk and replaces with a vet minimum guy for the same result. He's the prototype for the mess we are in.

[nate82]

Haven't read every page but I didn't even see one mention of Jim Leonhard..........

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Haven't read every page but I didn't even see one mention of Jim Leonhard..........

 

Probably because the Wisconsin defense wouldn't be able to stop a high school offense this year.

[Raw Biz]

From the JS:

 

--It’s rare for a fired coach to be allowed back into the building, let alone to address coaches and players, but Philbin thought it was representative of the organization’s standards – and how they feel about McCarthy.

 

"That’s the Green Bay Packer way, right?” Philbin said. “This is a first-class organization all the way around. I think it’s been that way for 100 seasons, I would guess. I’m not that old, but I’m guessing it’s been like that for a long time. We do things the right way around here. Mark and Russ and Brian were all totally supportive, they think that was the right thing to do, as did I.”--

 

Ugh. So this must be what it's like to be a Cardinals fan. I don't disagree with what he said but there's gotta be a better way than saying "the Green Bay Packer way". That just oozes douchiness.

[Baldkin]

From the JS:

 

--It’s rare for a fired coach to be allowed back into the building, let alone to address coaches and players, but Philbin thought it was representative of the organization’s standards – and how they feel about McCarthy.

 

"That’s the Green Bay Packer way, right?” Philbin said. “This is a first-class organization all the way around. I think it’s been that way for 100 seasons, I would guess. I’m not that old, but I’m guessing it’s been like that for a long time. We do things the right way around here. Mark and Russ and Brian were all totally supportive, they think that was the right thing to do, as did I.”--

 

Ugh. So this must be what it's like to be a Cardinals fan. I don't disagree with what he said but there's gotta be a better way than saying "the Green Bay Packer way". That just oozes douchiness.

 

I mean, Ron Wolf literally wrote a book titled "The Packer Way"

[pacopete4]

The biggest difference between the Cardinal Way and the Packer Way to me is that the Packers don’t try to police the on field stuff like the Cardinals do and they don’t get pissy with little things. The Packers way seems to be treating their employees in the best way they can. I can get behind that “way”.

[brewcrewdue80]

Just went back to look at their schedule out of curiosity:

 

Redskins: 7

Vikings tie: 9

Rams: 17

Patriots: 7

Seahawks: 3

Vikings: 3

Cardinals: 7

 

Those are the Packers second-half point totals against those teams. So besides LAR, they were awful in all those games. To me, this is more indicative than "games decided by X points or less," because a couple of those games are pretty weak. They lost to DET by 8, but really got their teeth kicked in. In the last Vikings game, they're down 10 entering the 4th and end up losing by 7, but the outcome was never really in question and they pretty got dominated after the very beginning.

 

The second half is what happens after someone has a chance to adjust, IMO that's where separation really happens in most NFL games. Most games are still in question at halftime, and the Packers have been an atrocious 2H team this year.

 

I got more curious, so I wanted to see how they stack up quarter by quarter.

 

The Packers are actually one of the better 1Q offenses in the NFL, coming in 8th in scoring. But they drop to 21st in the 2nd, 14th in the 3rd and 20th in the 4th. For as often as they've been behind, that is pretty alarming for a team with Aaron Rodgers.

 

That would seem to support the idea that they are having big trouble with in-game adjustments. This is, in a way, my long-winded way of saying that I think their "close games" line is maybe a bit disingenuous. Adjustments are probably one of the bigger components of winning in the NFL, and they've been really bad at them.

 

 

The Packers scored on the first drive of the 2nd half the first 8 games. Only three were TDs though, struggling on 3rd down.

The last 4 were punt results. Putting the writing on the wall for McCarthy to be let go. Not coming back to start the 2nd half with production in the games after 8 played you needed to do so.

 

On the prediction kudos you give yourself. The Packers have 12 players on IR currently. These are key injuries at playmaking positions. WR, DE/DT, LB, and CB. Add to it the OL right side injuries-Murray and Bulaga. It's no wonder the offense struggles in the 2nd half(how often are the Packers down 3 or 4 players at that point from 1st half) Add Crosby's 2 if not 3 games lost due to him, Montgomery's snafu, Matthews' 1st 3 game penalty effect, the poor playcall by McCarthy on 4th down, and last week the easily dropped Int. It is not far of a reach for this team to be 10-2 had things gone in their favor.

 

You have super success with Jones and he always seemed to be forgotten come 2nd half, choosing to instead rely on Adams and 1st year with Rodgers targets.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Lack of depth on the OL was a big time known problem entering the season. Bulaga is totally unreliable, so to be frank I blame them not being prepared there.

 

I don't really see a bunch of the injuries they've had as extremely significant. Guys get hurt every year, not many of their big dogs have beyond the early one with AR. Bakhtiari was banged up but played through most of it. The biggest ones I can think of were probably Wilkerson, though he was a bit of a dice roll, and Allison, who was on his way to being a 1,000 yard guy this year before getting hurt, and seemed to really have AR's faith. When he went down coupled with Cobb being out again, those guys were really in a trial by fire situation.

 

Fans have a habit of listing all the things that go wrong in a year and then "what iffing" all of those things not happening. I see baseball fans do it all the time, where they assume every blown save could have been saved and then add on those wins. It doesn't work like that; some things would not have gone their way regardless, so I think 10-2 is a bit of fan goggling. With some better luck maybe 7-5 or something, but that would be about what they've been for three years now, the only difference being AR is playing worse.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Lack of depth on the OL was a big time known problem entering the season. Bulaga is totally unreliable, so to be frank I blame them not being prepared there.

 

I don't really see a bunch of the injuries they've had as extremely significant. Guys get hurt every year, not many of their big dogs have beyond the early one with AR. Bakhtiari was banged up but played through most of it. The biggest ones I can think of were probably Wilkerson, though he was a bit of a dice roll, and Allison, who was on his way to being a 1,000 yard guy this year before getting hurt, and seemed to really have AR's faith. When he went down coupled with Cobb being out again, those guys were really in a trial by fire situation.

 

Fans have a habit of listing all the things that go wrong in a year and then "what iffing" all of those things not happening. I see baseball fans do it all the time, where they assume every blown save could have been saved and then add on those wins. It doesn't work like that; some things would not have gone their way regardless, so I think 10-2 is a bit of fan goggling. With some better luck maybe 7-5 or something, but that would be about what they've been for three years now, the only difference being AR is playing worse.

 

You nailed it. Good teams don't get in situations where the game is turned on one play. Mediocre teams do. This team has a mediocre talent level, and when combined with an outdated coaching philosophy, it led to where they are now. Blaming injuries is a scapegoat. Every team has big injuries. The 2010 Super Bowl team had a ton of guys on IR.

 

The truth is, this team has underperformed big time this year, and while they could have grabbed a couple extra wins and perhaps still been in playoff contention had luck gone their way, there is no way this is a team built for a playoff run. All making the playoffs would have done was delay a much-needed new voice and direction at head coach and the soft rebuild they need. It sucks being a fan of the Packers right now, but what is happening is probably the best in the long run.

 

That said, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see them win their last four, finish 8-7-1, miss the playoffs, and get a draft pick in the teens. And that is going to suck.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I prefer to see them end the year on a high note rather than jockey for a high draft pick. That's exactly what they did McCarthy's first season, winning the final four to finish 8-8. Then they had that great 2007 season. A draft pick just doesn't mean much to me. The last time they picked really high they got AJ Hawk. Then they got Raji 9th I think, and he was good, but look where that went. They got Matthews 26th, and as far as he's fallen he was a big playmaker for them for years.

 

If they know they're doing, they're getting a good player in the first round whether it's 7th or 19th.

 

There are a lot of young players on this team that would grow from playing well and winning the last few games here. As fans, the games are meaningless, for the number of 1st and 2nd year players on this roster, they're not. I'll always want to see them win games regardless of where it's landing them in April. It's just not like the NBA where you're tanking to get LBJ or something.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I prefer to see them end the year on a high note rather than jockey for a high draft pick. That's exactly what they did McCarthy's first season, winning the final four to finish 8-8. Then they had that great 2007 season. A draft pick just doesn't mean much to me. The last time they picked really high they got AJ Hawk. Then they got Raji 9th I think, and he was good, but look where that went. They got Matthews 26th, and as far as he's fallen he was a big playmaker for them for years.

 

If they know they're doing, they're getting a good player in the first round whether it's 7th or 19th.

 

There are a lot of young players on this team that would grow from playing well and winning the last few games here. As fans, the games are meaningless, for the number of 1st and 2nd year players on this roster, they're not. I'll always want to see them win games regardless of where it's landing them in April. It's just not like the NBA where you're tanking to get LBJ or something.

 

I'm not advocating tanking. But the odds of being able to grab a difference maker at, say, Pick #7, are much higher than being able to grab one at Pick #15. I see speculation about packaging their pick with the Saints' #1 to move into the Top 5, and I wholeheartedly disagree with that, though. They have the opportunity to draft a difference maker with their pick, and a solid starter with the Saints pick. On a team that needs quality depth, you can't package multiple picks on a whim.

 

I guess the best way to look at it is that these last four games are no-lose situations. If they play well, that is solid growth for next year. If they don't, better draft pick.

 

Just trying to find the silver lining in the whole situation. There's a very good chance that this team's offseason is going to be much more interesting than this last month of games.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

My thing is, if we're that dependent on picking high to get this thing turned around, we are in bigger trouble than I think. I have faith in BK to get this rolling again. I think he can get us contributors regardless of where the pick is. The same bottom dwelling teams are picking high every year with little success for the most part, and the traditionally good teams seem to do just fine picking lower.

 

The only drawback I see to finishing 4-0, is if they actually do play well, do you really consider sticking with Philbin? It would be hard to justify letting him go if they look like a different offense under him and win a bunch of games. I highly doubt he's coaching them next year, just something I've wondered about.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

My thing is, if we're that dependent on picking high to get this thing turned around, we are in bigger trouble than I think. I have faith in BK to get this rolling again. I think he can get us contributors regardless of where the pick is. The same bottom dwelling teams are picking high every year with little success for the most part, and the traditionally good teams seem to do just fine picking lower.

 

The only drawback I see to finishing 4-0, is if they actually do play well, do you really consider sticking with Philbin? It would be hard to justify letting him go if they look like a different offense under him and win a bunch of games. I highly doubt he's coaching them next year, just something I've wondered about.

 

I wonder the same thing regarding Philbin. If they look like a playoff team these next 4 weeks, I could see him making their decision very difficult. Philbin doesn't strike me as a very dynamic, energetic guy, but it appears that Rodgers is a fan of his, and it's tough to hold his time in Miami against him, given the poor roster he was given to work with. I just don't know ...

[pacopete4]

For me, it is the value of the pick (trades) and the possibility of picking in the in the low 40's in the second round (again the value of it). That is something that Gutenkunst can do a lot with along with having the Saints first rounder.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Damarious Randall comes out defending MM. He may be a little biased in his assessment of trading away good players

 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2018/12/07/packers-morning-buzz-damarious-randall-criticizes-mike-mccarthy-firing/2221777002/

[OldHeidelberg]

Was just looking at the ticket prices on StubHub for tomorrow, if anyone is looking for a cheap Lambeau experience the rest of this season should offer some real deals. Not too bad a day tomorrow, 29 but sunny so nice that it is a noon game.

[young guns]

So now we've gone 180 where just having your hands on the ball is a catch.

[pacopete4]

The NLF suuuuuuuuckkkksssssss.

[young guns]

This second one I'm not sure about, and that was totally a McCarthy type challenge of challenging something that's close but you have no realistic chance of winning.

[MrTPlush]

You can’t even get a minute into a game without wondering why you are watching such a garbage product.

 

Can someone please make something else worthwhile to watch on a Sunday.

[KeithStone53151]

That first challenge is the worst call I've seen since the fail mary. How can you review that and call it a catch? Do these refs even know the rules?

[MrTPlush]

That was a pretty miserable drive for the Falcons. Throw it backwards to put yourself out of field goal range...but no wait. Let’s send out the kicker who has a bad back and couldn’t hit from anywhere near that range in the pregame. Lucky that pitiful decision didn’t cost them points. Packers had a pretty short field.