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Postseason 25-Man Roster Prediction


obobo55new

This is fun, I'll give it a whirl.

 

C - Pina, Kratz

1b - Aguilar, Thames

2b - Shaw, Schoop

SS - Arcia, Perez

3b - Moustakas

OF - Yelich, Cain, Braun, Granderson, Santana

 

P - Gonzalez, Chacin, Anderson, Miley

Jeffress, Hader, Knebel, Soria, Burnes, Guerra, Cedeno

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I completely agree. Woodruff and Burnes are definitely multi-inning guys too, but right you want a guy like that as strictly LR for an extra inning game...a guy you hope to never use but he's there and ready when needed. I'd prefer Anderson in that role over Guerra...with Davies as the 4th starter in my scenario. We'll see though.

 

I'd prefer for the 4th starter and the 8th guy in the bullpen to be the same guy. If neither Burnes nor Woodruff are going to start, it seems very unlikely that one of those two won't be available in the 10th+ inning to go for 3-4 innings if necessary. At that point, even if you burn the #4 starter and he needs to go another 3-4 innings, you'd still have whoever of Burnes/Woodruff who only went for an inning early in the game to make the "start" for game 4--as well as pushing up Miley on 3 days rest for a couple innings since he'll probably only go 4-5 innings in game 1. Then there is an off day before game 5 which should re-set the rest of the bullpen as well as give the starter for game 2 and 5 the normal 4 days rest.

 

Having Burnes, Woodruff, a #4 starter who is unavailable out of the BP AND having another long relief guy who will only pitch in an extra inning emergency role seems excessive to me in the division series.

 

The only way I see it being a real problem would be if games 3 and 4 both went 13+ innings. It seems far more probable that having the option of using a 14th position player (Broxton, Thames, Perez, etc.) would be more beneficial.

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Here's what I think we'll see for the NLDS with 1 spot depending on if the opponent is Colorado or if its Chicago. I think Peralta is on there if its the Rockies and Guerra if its the Cubs...

 

C: Pina, Kratz (2)

 

IF: Aguilar, Shaw, Moustakas, Arcia, Perez, Schoop (6)

 

OF: Yelich, Cain, Braun, Santana, Granderson (5)

 

P: Chacin, Miley, Gio, Hader, Jeffress, Knebel, Soria, Burnes, Woodruff, Cedeno, Jennings AND...

 

P: Peralta (if Rockies) Guerra (if Cubs) (12)

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A lot of good, useful players will be left off the roster. That's what happens when you use ~35 guys in September and just about all of them have done something good to help you win games.

 

Here's my updated prediction on the NLDS roster:

 

SP (3)

Miley, Gio, Chacin

 

RP (8)

JJ, Hader, Knebel, Soria, Burnes, Woodruff, Cedeno, Guerra

 

C (2)

Kratz, Pina

 

INF (6)

Aguilar, Shaw, Schoop, Perez, Arcia, Moustakas

 

OF (6)

Braun, Yelich, Cain, Granderson, Santana, Broxton

 

3 of 4 teams went with 11 pitchers on their DS rosters last season. The other went with 12. This is the trickiest part. There isn't another pitcher I'm dying to get on the roster while all of the position players seemingly have an important role. I don't see either Davies or Anderson making the roster regardless of opponent. I think game 4 sets up nicely to be a bullpen game if 2 of Guerra/Woodruff/Burnes didn't have to pitch in game 3. If game 5 is needed there would be a day off to get some rest for the pen after a bullpen game.

 

This is exactly what I would do. The way the Brewers use starters I don’t think they need more than 3 to cover 5 games in 7 days. I would look at it as 6 starters/long relievers (who have all been starters at some point this year) and 5

late inning relievers. Cover the first 3 games and then see where you are for game 4. If they wear out all 6 of the first group in the first 3 games they’re probably in big trouble already.

 

I like the idea of having someone like Broxton to be a possible late inning pinch runner and defensive replacement.

Note: If I raise something as a POSSIBILITY that does not mean that I EXPECT it to happen.
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What's the rule on being in the dugout? Do you have to be on the DL (Vogt, Suter) or active roster to be in the dugout? I would hope that guys that don't fit in one of those two categories and that may not make the post season roster could still be in the dugout, especially if they have been with the team the majority of the year.

 

 

Rule 3.17

Players and substitutes of both teams shall confine themselves to their team’s benches unless actually participating in the play or preparing to enter the game, or coaching at first or third base. No one except players, substitutes, managers, coaches, trainers and bat boys shall occupy a bench during a game.

 

PENALTY: For violation the umpire may, after warning, remove the offender from the field.

 

Rule 3.17 Comment: Players on the disabled list are permitted to participate in pre-game activity and sit on the bench during a game but may not take part in any activity during the game such as warming up a pitcher, bench-jockeying, etc. Disabled players are not allowed to enter the playing surface at any time or for any purpose during the game.

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The more I think about it I just don't think we can start 2 lefties if we face the Rockies.

 

Arenado and Story just destroy lefties.......LeLahieu isn't far behind.

 

I wonder if Burnes or Woodruff would be better options then Miley or Gio.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/batting/_/name/col/split/31

 

The numbers vs Righties aren't bad but I'm not sure I want our lefties against the top of that order once or twice.

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Just don't see a spot for Thames.

 

Not sure if they go with 8 pen arms either........last 2 spots might come down to Granderson/ Guerra/Jennings/Broxton.

 

Thames struggled in the PH role the last month, but the hits he did get were big and I like his ability to get a big fly late over Granderson. Let's remember it was Thames that walked off Wade Davis in early August.

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The more I think about it I just don't think we can start 2 lefties if we face the Rockies.

 

Arenado and Story just destroy lefties.......LeLahieu isn't far behind.

 

I wonder if Burnes or Woodruff would be better options then Miley or Gio.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/batting/_/name/col/split/31

 

The numbers vs Righties aren't bad but I'm not sure I want our lefties against the top of that order once or twice.

 

 

Agreed. I think I'd roll with any of our other guys and stick Miley and/or Gio in the pen. Or start Soria and pitch him till he either gets hit or has to bat and then bring in Miley or Gio so they'd only have to face Arenado/Story at most twice and probably only once.

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Now that we know our postseason opponent for the NLDS, we can customize our 25 man to that opponent. I'm not even going to separate starters from relievers -- the lines are just too blurred, and I can't even see any starter besides Chacin going beyond the 4th. I am tempted to include Guerra. I am, frankly, tempted to leave Miley off the roster for this series. I am tempted to leave off Schoop. I am not sure what I'm going to do there yet. It's going to be tough for spots.

 

OF - Granderson, Yelich, Braun, Cain, Santana

This is really hard. I can't leave off Santana, not the way he's been swinging and what he brings as a bench bat. I didn't want to leave Broxton off either. He's got a very specific a role as the only PR option late, and they love tightening up the OF defense late. I just couldn't find room. Perez probably becomes that guy, but you'll lose on some OF defense.

 

IF - Moustakas, Schoop, Shaw, Aguilar, Arcia, Perez, Pina, Kratz

I couldn't leave off Schoop. Maybe if the Rockies didn't have lefty starters, I'd go for it. Everyone else here is a total lock.

 

P - Chacin, Miley, Davies, Gonzalez, Woodruff, Peralta, Jeffress, Knebel, Hader, Soria, Cedeno, Burnes

Like I said, I wanted to disclude Miley as he is not a good matchup for the Rockies, and his last two starts have been very bad. But his body of work wins out. It doesn't mean he'll go long, or even start. Dan Jennings is not making the postseason roster, I don't care if Tom Haudricourt said he's certain to make it. Cedeno is the better LOOGY, and beyond that you're just getting into luxuries that they don't have room for.

 

Peralta is my new dark horse. He's murder against righties, which makes him a great fit for this series. I was torn between him and Williams for the final spot. I went with Freddy because he can go multiple innings. Woodruff has been way too good lately to leave out.

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I am right with your 25 adambr2.

 

My only question is Davies. If they decide they want to start Peralta or Woodruff, I could see him being dropped for either Broxton or Thames.

 

With off days for travel, not sure they need 12 pitchers. Assume you get a lead in 1 of the first 2 games. That game you go with your normal Knebel, Hader 2 innings & Jeffress for the ninth. If that is game 1, sure Josh is out for game 2, but I'm pretty confident in Burnes or Soria in late innings and JJ ought to be up for a 2nd 1 inning appearance. By game 3, you are hopefully up 2-0 or if things didn't go your way in 1 or 2, it's tied 1-1 but you have a decently rested pen again.

 

Only reason that Thames might make it is you know when they start a righty that we likely have Granderson, Shaw, Moustakas, and Yelich in the lineup. It is nice to have 1 lefty bat on the bench to toss in for Kratz/Pina late if they have burnt through all of their lefty relievers.

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Now that we know our postseason opponent for the NLDS, we can customize our 25 man to that opponent. I'm not even going to separate starters from relievers -- the lines are just too blurred, and I can't even see any starter besides Chacin going beyond the 4th. I am tempted to include Guerra. I am, frankly, tempted to leave Miley off the roster for this series. I am tempted to leave off Schoop. I am not sure what I'm going to do there yet. It's going to be tough for spots.

 

OF - Granderson, Yelich, Braun, Cain, Santana

This is really hard. I can't leave off Santana, not the way he's been swinging and what he brings as a bench bat. I didn't want to leave Broxton off either. He's got a very specific a role as the only PR option late, and they love tightening up the OF defense late. I just couldn't find room. Perez probably becomes that guy, but you'll lose on some OF defense.

 

IF - Moustakas, Schoop, Shaw, Aguilar, Arcia, Perez, Pina, Kratz

I couldn't leave off Schoop. Maybe if the Rockies didn't have lefty starters, I'd go for it. Everyone else here is a total lock.

 

P - Chacin, Miley, Davies, Gonzalez, Woodruff, Peralta, Jeffress, Knebel, Hader, Soria, Cedeno, Burnes

Like I said, I wanted to disclude Miley as he is not a good matchup for the Rockies, and his last two starts have been very bad. But his body of work wins out. It doesn't mean he'll go long, or even start. Dan Jennings is not making the postseason roster, I don't care if Tom Haudricourt said he's certain to make it. Cedeno is the better LOOGY, and beyond that you're just getting into luxuries that they don't have room for.

 

Peralta is my new dark horse. He's murder against righties, which makes him a great fit for this series. I was torn between him and Williams for the final spot. I went with Freddy because he can go multiple innings. Woodruff has been way too good lately to leave out.

 

I think this would match my roster as of today, as well. Good chance Peralta makes it now, given the RH bats and success he's had against the Rockies. I can see Chase or T Williams having a shot to make the roster as well, but I'm not sure who you drop then- probably Gio or Miley.

 

I also, think this changes how CC sets up starters. I think you want your ground ball pitchers to pitch in Colorado, so that would mean Chacin and Davies. I think you could pitch Chacin game 3 and then still have him for game 5, if need be.

 

I guess that leaves Miley for game 1. For game 2 I would go with Chase or Peralta, I guess. Not sure I like Gio against this Colorado offense. Obviously all of these starters will be on pretty short leashes, as always.

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Now that we know our postseason opponent for the NLDS, we can customize our 25 man to that opponent. I'm not even going to separate starters from relievers -- the lines are just too blurred, and I can't even see any starter besides Chacin going beyond the 4th. I am tempted to include Guerra. I am, frankly, tempted to leave Miley off the roster for this series. I am tempted to leave off Schoop. I am not sure what I'm going to do there yet. It's going to be tough for spots.

 

OF - Granderson, Yelich, Braun, Cain, Santana

This is really hard. I can't leave off Santana, not the way he's been swinging and what he brings as a bench bat. I didn't want to leave Broxton off either. He's got a very specific a role as the only PR option late, and they love tightening up the OF defense late. I just couldn't find room. Perez probably becomes that guy, but you'll lose on some OF defense.

 

IF - Moustakas, Schoop, Shaw, Aguilar, Arcia, Perez, Pina, Kratz

I couldn't leave off Schoop. Maybe if the Rockies didn't have lefty starters, I'd go for it. Everyone else here is a total lock.

 

P - Chacin, Miley, Davies, Gonzalez, Woodruff, Peralta, Jeffress, Knebel, Hader, Soria, Cedeno, Burnes

Like I said, I wanted to disclude Miley as he is not a good matchup for the Rockies, and his last two starts have been very bad. But his body of work wins out. It doesn't mean he'll go long, or even start. Dan Jennings is not making the postseason roster, I don't care if Tom Haudricourt said he's certain to make it. Cedeno is the better LOOGY, and beyond that you're just getting into luxuries that they don't have room for.

 

Peralta is my new dark horse. He's murder against righties, which makes him a great fit for this series. I was torn between him and Williams for the final spot. I went with Freddy because he can go multiple innings. Woodruff has been way too good lately to leave out.

 

I have the same minus Davies, plus Guerra.

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Freddy should start the first game in Colorado, since he's the only strikeout SP on the team and (at least as far as this rotation goes) he's not horrible about giving up HR. Plus his fastball clearly plays up in the Colorado air for whatever reason.

 

I would start Freddy and then (if necessary) do a bullpen game piggybacking Woodruff and Burnes for 5.0-6.0 IP in Colorado to maximize Ka

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What do you think the pitching match ups will be?

 

Chacin pitched Monday. Gio pitched Sunday. Miley had a short outing on Saturday. Marquez pitched Monday. Jon Gray pitched Friday. Freeland pitched Tuesday (its a blessing we only have to probably face him once). Unfortunately, Chacin can only pitch once. Chacin and a bullpen game are probably our best bet at coors? Would we give Gio or Miley 2 starts? Do we trust Chase, Davies or Peralta to take a start?

 

Thurs: Miley vs. Gray

Friday: Gio vs. Marquez

Sunday: Chacin vs. Freeland

Monday: Bullpen vs. Tyler Anderson

Wednesday: Miley vs. Gray/Marquez

 

Edit: game 5 is Wed, my bad

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