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Postseason 25-Man Roster Prediction


obobo55new

C--Pina, Kratz

1B--Aguilar

Infield--Moose, Shaw, Arcia, Perez, Schoop

Outfield--Cain, Yelich, Braun, Granderson, Broxton?

 

SP--Chacin, Chase, Miley, Gio/Davies

RP--JJ, Hader, Soria, new WSox guy, Burnes, Barnes

 

I think these 23 are pretty sure bets. Probably want one more hitter and one more pitcher. Does Thames get a spot? Knebel?

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With Granderson platooning with Braun and providing OF late inning defense, Thames probably gets Broxton's spot in your proposal as a bench bat. Davies probably makes it as a piggy backer, unless he's bad in his comeback in September, and then Dan Jennings probably gets the final BP spot. Whoever does better in Sept between Barnes and Knebel gets that spot, otherwise I'd say you've called it pretty well.
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vs RHP

 

Yelich

Cain

Moose

Aguilar

Shaw

Granderson

Arcia

Pina

 

Bench--Perez, Kratz, Braun, Schoop, Broxton

 

vs LHP

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Aguilar

Schoop

Perez

Arcia

Pina

 

Bench--Shaw, Granderson, Moose, Kratz, Broxton

 

I'm so down on Thames at this point. Not sure if having a lefty bench bat is worth it with him K'ing in 50%.

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Honestly it's going to be really hard to say. We'll have to see how guys look down the stretch. We have so many options at so many spots, virtually any starter not named miley/chacin could be left off the roster with a bad September. Thames could miss if he continues to look like trash. It also could vary by series.
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With Granderson platooning with Braun and providing OF late inning defense, Thames probably gets Broxton's spot in your proposal as a bench bat. Davies probably makes it as a piggy backer, unless he's bad in his comeback in September, and then Dan Jennings probably gets the final BP spot. Whoever does better in Sept between Barnes and Knebel gets that spot, otherwise I'd say you've called it pretty well.

 

 

Granderson is the worst defensive OF on the team, he is even worse than Thames. I would bet on them keeping Broxton just to fill in for someone late in games if nothing else. Only Granderson or Thames can make it imo, you can't have two completely worthless defensive players who fill the same role.

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My post was 4 starters, either Gio or Zach in the spot depending on results.

 

Do you go with 7 relievers and 6 bench bats? Can't imagine needing a 3rd lefty reliever, but if so then I guess Jennings is added. Is Thames our best available lefty bat at this point after Yelich, Moose, Shaw, & Granderson?

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With Granderson platooning with Braun and providing OF late inning defense, Thames probably gets Broxton's spot in your proposal as a bench bat. Davies probably makes it as a piggy backer, unless he's bad in his comeback in September, and then Dan Jennings probably gets the final BP spot. Whoever does better in Sept between Barnes and Knebel gets that spot, otherwise I'd say you've called it pretty well.

 

 

Granderson is the worst defensive OF on the team, he is even worse than Thames. I would bet on them keeping Broxton just to fill in for someone late in games if nothing else. Only Granderson or Thames can make it imo, you can't have two completely worthless defensive players who fill the same role.

 

I guess if you go by UZR for 2018, Granderson has been worse than Thames, but Thames getting a positive readout in the metric just means to me that the small sample he's played isn't really registering his true below averageness. (I don't think he's as bad out there as some, but he hasn't been good imo compared to what UZR is saying).

 

Granted, Granderson is getting old, so maybe he's legitimately as bad as Thames in the OF now, but if I had to pick between them for defense, I'd go Granderson. To me it seems like stat-wise, he's getting grief from 3 fielding errors (and a throwing error), which, while not good, I don't think is indicative of how we should expect him to play defensively going forward.

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If you go by the stat cast stats Granderson also comes out just awful.

 

Granderson's catch probabilities are

 

10 of 12 on 91%+

8 of 10 on 76-90%

4 of 10 on 51-75%

1 of 5 on 26-50%

1 of 9 on 24% and harder.

 

Only 9 players in baseball have a worse outs above average than he does. He has below average sprint speed on the season as well. His range is just awful at this point. Granderson was never considered a very good fielder and then he lost speed on top of it.

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OF: Yelich, Cain, Braun, Granderson, Broxton

IF: Aguilar, Schoop, Shaw, Moustakas, Arcia, Pina, Kratz, Perez

SP: Chacin, Anderson, Miley, Davies

RP: Hader, Jeffress, Burnes, Knebel, Gonzales, Jennings, Soria

 

There are going to be some really tough decisions. Guerra has to be left out. I can't find room for Peralta. I don't see a spot for Williams. There's no way they can take more than 2 of Jennings, Gonzalez and Cedeno. I took Broxton and Granderson over Thames.

 

Of course, any of the above can swing the odds into their favor with a hot September.

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OF: Yelich, Cain, Braun, Granderson, Broxton

IF: Aguilar, Schoop, Shaw, Moustakas, Arcia, Pina, Kratz, Perez

SP: Chacin, Anderson, Miley, Davies

RP: Hader, Jeffress, Burnes, Knebel, Gonzales, Jennings, Soria

 

There are going to be some really tough decisions. Guerra has to be left out. I can't find room for Peralta. I don't see a spot for Williams. There's no way they can take more than 2 of Jennings, Gonzalez and Cedeno. I took Broxton and Granderson over Thames.

 

Of course, any of the above can swing the odds into their favor with a hot September.

 

Only 11 pitchers? I'm a bit surprised by that. I know Broxton would be fantastic to have in the playoffs, I just don't see it happening. You probably replace Broxton with a pitcher...probably Peralta or Williams in the bullpen. Also I'm not entirely convinced you go Granderson over Thames. We'll see I guess.

 

This is probably pretty close for the first round though. I imagine any wildcard game is going to have 2-3 less pitchers with more position players. Probably Saladino and Thames would be locks, possibly even a 3rd catcher that you hope to never use just so you can safely pinch run for a catcher. Worst comes to worst, Kratz can pitch in extras...

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OF: Yelich, Cain, Braun, Granderson, Broxton

IF: Aguilar, Schoop, Shaw, Moustakas, Arcia, Pina, Kratz, Perez

SP: Chacin, Anderson, Miley, Davies

RP: Hader, Jeffress, Burnes, Knebel, Gonzales, Jennings, Soria

 

There are going to be some really tough decisions. Guerra has to be left out. I can't find room for Peralta. I don't see a spot for Williams. There's no way they can take more than 2 of Jennings, Gonzalez and Cedeno. I took Broxton and Granderson over Thames.

 

Of course, any of the above can swing the odds into their favor with a hot September.

 

Only 11 pitchers? I'm a bit surprised by that. I know Broxton would be fantastic to have in the playoffs, I just don't see it happening. You probably replace Broxton with a pitcher...probably Peralta or Williams in the bullpen. Also I'm not entirely convinced you go Granderson over Thames. We'll see I guess.

 

This is probably pretty close for the first round though. I imagine any wildcard game is going to have 2-3 less pitchers with more position players. Probably Saladino and Thames would be locks, possibly even a 3rd catcher that you hope to never use just so you can safely pinch run for a catcher. Worst comes to worst, Kratz can pitch in extras...

 

I goofed and actually only have 24 on my list, so we could keep that bench and add a pitcher. Maybe Woodruff, maybe Williams, maybe Cedeno. Lot of candidates.

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Tough decision, I think Adam has it about right. As the unofficial captain of the Freddy Peralta Fan Club, I have to admit there's no room for him. The four starts listed make sense, and no way do I want Peralta coming out of the pen. Gonzalez is interesting, we'll see what he can provide but he may be on the outside looking in as well- for the same reason. I don't want someone out of the pen who walks a lot of guys and has never been a reliever.

 

I would say form Adam's list, remove either Gonzalez/Jennings and add Woodruff, Cedeno. That's as of today of course, subject to change.

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Assuming Cedeno functions well as a Loogy coming down the stretch there is no way he is not on the playoff roster.

 

I wouldn't assume that. He's made something like 2 appearances and he doesn't pass the eye test for me. His stuff isn't really THAT good. The only reason he has a shot at that role is because Jennings has been so bad as the situational lefty. Jennings is still the better pitcher of the 2.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Not an interesting answer, but fact is that it's entirely dependent on the opponent.
. Of course that will play into it especially the Cubs with all their left handed pitching , but still going to be interested to see how it shapes out .
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