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Josh Baker and signability

Crawford Box
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Crawford Box

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how much will the Brewers have to offer for Baker?

 

I live in Houston, and I don?t see it happening, not for 4th round money.

 

Baker loves Houston, his Brother-in-law plays pro baseball here, and he knows if he comes back he will be a 1st or 2nd round choice next year.

 

Granted he wont have the same leverage being a senior next year, but in 03 the lowest bonuses awarded was 550K. I would think that is pretty close to the ballpark the Brewers have to get in, 400K at minimum. If not that much then Baker would be a fool not to hold out for more money next year.

 

I would say the chances of signing him are 1 in 3 at best.

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Crawford Box

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What scouts thinks isn?t as important as what he and his advisor think.

 

He and his advisors are thinking 2nd round or better next year. With the Big 3 gone from Rice, Baker will be a Friday starter and be able to get into a rhythm. The last couple years he has just done spot starts and relief due to Humber/Townsend/Nieman, he has never got to get comfortable. That wont be the case next season.

 

I attend a lot of college games in Houston and have spoke with scouts, some share your sentiments, some don?t and all it takes is one of the 30 or so scouts that frequent games in Houston to like him, and he is a 2nd rounder. Plus he wont have any signability issues next year since he will be a senior

 

He will put up great numbers against the weak schedule that Rice plays, and some moneyball team will take him in the top 2 rounds. Bank on it.

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950opsLHcatcher First Round Pick

950opsLHcatcher

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Even if Baker prefers Houston and even if he thinks he'll go in the first few rounds next year (which is up for debate), the Brewers have a good chunk of money to spend this year. They went right out and said that a large number of the picks will be DFEers (including all seven Canadians), so they may just be looking to sign 15 or so guys right now.

 

The numbers are probably a little different, but assuming they have about the same budget as last year, they don't have to pay out the same amount of ching to their #1 pick (2nd overall vs. 5th overall), and they may well sign 10 less guys before the season starts. I would say that the Brewers have enough money for Baker, and I'd guesstimate the odds of them signing him closer to 8 or 9 in 10.

 

The Brewers have a history of signing the large majority of their first 10 picks under Jack Z, and there is no reason to think this year will be significantly different. They signed 10/10 from 2003, 8/10 from 2002 (Page 5th, Kahn 8th), 10/10 from 2001, and 10/10 from 2000 (lost 2nd rounder for Jose K, signed Corey Hart 11th round). That's 38/40. The two that didn't sign, Page and Kahn, might have been the two toughest signs out of that group of 40, with Page's strong commitment in two sports to UCLA, and with Kahn's agent being Boras or someone of that ilk, IIRC. Baker shouldn't be nearly as tough.

 

In short, yes, I think he will sign, and sign soon at that.

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Crawford Box

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If the money is there, than i say the chances of signing Baker are 5 out of 5. I think we are talking about an absolute minimum of 375-400. If they pay that, i think he signs.

 

Going by the Brewers recent top 10 pick history you cited (nice work, good stuff) I would say that they knew Bakers $# when they drafted him and are willing to pay it.

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950opsLHcatcher First Round Pick

950opsLHcatcher

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Want to go ahead and make a similar prediction for Mister Rogers?

 

He'll continue to be in syndication on PBS for many years, but something tells me he won't be playing much baseball from here on out.

 

Oh... The Lobster.

 

These predictions only work when I don't think about them... Mark Rogers will be signed on Wednesday. Take it to the bank.

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colbyjack Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

colbyjack

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I hope someone else pops in tomorrow & questions the signing of one of our other picks http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif . Make it someone like LeClercq, Bowman, Pryor or Morgan.

 

I also think Rogers will be inked really soon, we just have to wait for his season to get over with. The Brewers signed Krynzel, Jones & Fielder within a matter of days of the draft, and the only reason Weeks took so long is because rarely do you see a team simply hand over the type of contract he got. Signing Weeks never was in doubt, but everyone knew it would take some time.

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  • 4 weeks later...
MassBrew Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

MassBrew

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This thread's been dormant for a while, but it's interesting enough to re-read from the top. We haven't heard from poster "Crawford Box" before or since.

 

Anyway, Jamey Newberg of the Newberg Report Texas Ranger Fan Site asked us if we knew what Josh Baker signed for. Baseball America does not list the info as of yet.

 

Jamey reminds us that late in the summer of 2001:

 

(Ranger GM) Doug Melvin broke off negotiations with fourth-rounder Josh Baker, the Houston Memorial High righthander who reportedly demanded $1.4 million to sign. Now in Milwaukee, Melvin again used a fourth-rounder this year on Baker, who had pitched collegiately first at Alabama and then at Rice. Baker signed this time and has a 5.06 ERA in his first three appearances for short-season Helena.

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Awild102 Prep Ball

Awild102

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Looks like the Brewers beat the odds. Isn't the Baker family heir to the Swanson Foods' fortune? Rumor has it that Berkman was the one who had to sign a pre-nuptial agreement when he married Baker's sister, not the other way around. Glad to see that Baker was the first (maybe only?) of his Rice teammates to sign and play. More power to him.

 

Quote:
how much will the Brewers have to offer for Baker?

 

I live in Houston, and I don?t see it happening, not for 4th round money.

 

Baker loves Houston, his Brother-in-law plays pro baseball here, and he knows if he comes back he will be a 1st or 2nd round choice next year.

 

Granted he wont have the same leverage being a senior next year, but in 03 the lowest bonuses awarded was 550K. I would think that is pretty close to the ballpark the Brewers have to get in, 400K at minimum. If not that much then Baker would be a fool not to hold out for more money next year.

 

I would say the chances of signing him are 1 in 3 at best.

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