2018-08-28: Brewers (Guerra) at Reds (DeSclafani) 6:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 9-7]

[Eye Black]

[pre]Brewers Lineup Reds Lineup

1. CF Lorenzo Cain ® 1. CF Billy Hamilton (S)

2. RF Christian Yelich (L) 2. SS José Peraza ®

3. 1B Jesús Aguilar ® 3. 2B Scooter Gennett (L)

4. 2B Travis Shaw (L) 4. 3B Eugenio Suárez ®

5. LF Ryan Braun ® 5. RF Scott Schebler (L)

6. 3B Mike Moustakas (L) 6. LF Phillip Ervin ®

7. C Erik Kratz ® 7. C Tucker Barnhart (S)

8. SS Orlando Arcia ® 8. 1B Curt Casali ®

9. P Junior Guerra ® 9. P Anthony DeSclafani ®[/pre]

 

Link: Brewers Game Notes

[pacopete4]

Well, this very well could be Guerra's last start this season, especially if he doesn't do well. With Davies finally settling in down in the minors, I can't imagine them not sliding him into our rotation. Gotta either be Guerra or Peralta. Right now I have more faith in Peralta.

[long ball]

Well, this very well could be Guerra's last start this season, especially if he doesn't do well. With Davies finally settling in down in the minors, I can't imagine them not sliding him into our rotation. Gotta either be Guerra or Peralta. Right now I have more faith in Peralta.

 

I wonder how aggressive they'll be with shuffling the rotation in September. Having every Thursday off would allow them to skip guys and insert in guys for potentially what they feel would be a more favorable match up.

 

At this point I'm not all that confident in anyone outside of Chacin and Miley.

[istanbultaye]

Might just be observational bias, but it seems like over the last week at least, the pitching has been pretty good, but there's been poor luck and bad defense in several of the games that has hurt.

[jerichoholicninja]

Well, this very well could be Guerra's last start this season, especially if he doesn't do well. With Davies finally settling in down in the minors, I can't imagine them not sliding him into our rotation. Gotta either be Guerra or Peralta. Right now I have more faith in Peralta.

 

I wonder how aggressive they'll be with shuffling the rotation in September. Having every Thursday off would allow them to skip guys and insert in guys for potentially what they feel would be a more favorable match up.

 

At this point I'm not all that confident in anyone outside of Chacin and Miley.

 

I believe Craig has said they won't have a set rotation for September and will chose starters based on matchups.

[KeithStone53151]

Well, this very well could be Guerra's last start this season, especially if he doesn't do well. With Davies finally settling in down in the minors, I can't imagine them not sliding him into our rotation. Gotta either be Guerra or Peralta. Right now I have more faith in Peralta.

 

I wonder how aggressive they'll be with shuffling the rotation in September. Having every Thursday off would allow them to skip guys and insert in guys for potentially what they feel would be a more favorable match up.

 

At this point I'm not all that confident in anyone outside of Chacin and Miley.

 

I believe Craig has said they won't have a set rotation for September and will chose starters based on matchups.

 

That generally seems like a good idea. Chacin and Miley out there pretty much every 5th day no matter what. Give guys like Anderson/Guerra a bit more rest so they are more effective when they start. Short leashes in general as quality innings will be far more important than simply covering innings...gotta try to stay within comeback range in every game as every game is critical in September.

[Roderick]

Well, this very well could be Guerra's last start this season, especially if he doesn't do well. With Davies finally settling in down in the minors, I can't imagine them not sliding him into our rotation.

 

Are we really putting Davies in the rotation because he shutout a bad single A team and did pretty good against a bad hitting AA team (and was terrible before those two outings).

 

Not only can I imagine them not putting him in the MLB rotation, I would wish that doesn't happen. Get him up in September, and then give him some low leverage spots to earn more innings and more important spots.

 

I am fine with him having a clean slate and a good position to be a starter next year, but this year it is just too late to give away games seeing what he has.

[istanbultaye]

Guerra was definitely hurt by bad defense and luck last time out, but he has not been very good for most of the last 2 months. If he blows up again, then I would not complain about Davies getting his spot. Otherwise, I agree, bring him up in the bullpen, as a piggy back candidate for any start that other guys are struggling early.

[pacopete4]

Well, this very well could be Guerra's last start this season, especially if he doesn't do well. With Davies finally settling in down in the minors, I can't imagine them not sliding him into our rotation.

 

Are we really putting Davies in the rotation because he shutout a bad single A team and did pretty good against a bad hitting AA team (and was terrible before those two outings).

 

Not only can I imagine them not putting him in the MLB rotation, I would wish that doesn't happen. Get him up in September, and then give him some low leverage spots to earn more innings and more important spots.

 

I am fine with him having a clean slate and a good position to be a starter next year, but this year it is just too late to give away games seeing what he has.

 

I'll trust Johnson, Counsell, and Stearns to judge that one. They will know if he's worth of a starting spot (and good chance he is).

[long ball]

If they keep Miley and Chacin on an every 5th day routine they'd both get 6 more starts. I think that's probably best.

 

If they can get Anderson to pitch in both Cubs series that would be ideal as well since He's pitched really well vs them this season.

 

It's very likely that Peralta and Guerra have two GS and Anderson 1 GS before the next off day.

 

So that leaves them with 13 starts to figure out between Guerra, Anderson, Peralta, and maybe Davies/Woodruff/true bullpen days.

 

My guess is they probably don't do anything too aggressive other than keep Chacin and maybe Miley on an every 5th day schedule.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Official Lineup:

 

1. Cain - CF

2. Yelich - RF

3. Aguilar - 1B

4. Shaw - 2B

5. Braun - LF

6. Moustakas - 3B

7. Kratz - C

8. Arcia - SS

9. Guerra - P

 

Kinda wish that Thames was in the lineup, considering it's the Reds. Also kind of a bummer that Pina isn't playing, considering his hot bat. Also think Braun and Aguilar should be flip-flopped if both are in the lineup.

[long ball]

Brewers catch a break for at least tonight. No Votto yet.

[istanbultaye]

Ryan Braun - Batting 3rd: .656 OPS, Batting 5th: .857 OPS. [sarcasm]Clearly Ryan Braun doesn't know how to hit in the 3-hole![/sarcasm]

[bill hAll Star]

Official Lineup:

 

1. Cain - CF

2. Yelich - RF

3. Aguilar - 1B

4. Shaw - 2B

5. Braun - LF

6. Moustakas - 3B

7. Kratz - C

8. Arcia - SS

9. Guerra - P

 

Kinda wish that Thames was in the lineup, considering it's the Reds. Also kind of a bummer that Pina isn't playing, considering his hot bat. Also think Braun and Aguilar should be flip-flopped if both are in the lineup.

 

I know that crushing the Reds in general = crushing their pitchers, but Thames is 0/3 with 2 Ks vs. DeSclafani.

 

That's not something I would use to bench Thames necessarily, but I think that in the end, dominance over a team likely has more to do with a random set of success vs. various pitchers and coincidentally a lot of that is against a certain team. If Chris Sale was dealt to the Reds tomorrow, I doubt that Thames would own him because he plays for the Reds.

 

He has some success against various relievers (Amir Garret, a lefty, randomly) but he'll be pinch hitting later in the game so that can still happen.

[KeithStone53151]

Official Lineup:

 

1. Cain - CF

2. Yelich - RF

3. Aguilar - 1B

4. Shaw - 2B

5. Braun - LF

6. Moustakas - 3B

7. Kratz - C

8. Arcia - SS

9. Guerra - P

 

Kinda wish that Thames was in the lineup, considering it's the Reds. Also kind of a bummer that Pina isn't playing, considering his hot bat. Also think Braun and Aguilar should be flip-flopped if both are in the lineup.

 

I know that crushing the Reds in general = crushing their pitchers, but Thames is 0/3 with 2 Ks vs. DeSclafani.

 

That's not something I would use to bench Thames necessarily, but I think that in the end, dominance over a team likely has more to do with a random set of success vs. various pitchers and coincidentally a lot of that is against a certain team. If Chris Sale was dealt to the Reds tomorrow, I doubt that Thames would own him because he plays for the Reds.

 

He has some success against various relievers (Amir Garret, a lefty, randomly) but he'll be pinch hitting later in the game so that can still happen.

 

CC didn't start thames against stephenson last time through, thames has either homered or walked against stephenson in 100% of his atbats. That seemed incredibly stupid...it's a small sample but man what a sample! I agree it makes way more sense to look at specific pitchers. Also at the moment, Thames is not likely to have productive atbats. He's been pretty bad lately. I'm also a bit surprised Braun hasn't been moved back to the 3 hole.

 

I'll also point out that normally when Guerra starts, Schoop starts. Seems like a generally logical time to go to the goalline package. Maybe after that last start that Guerra got screwed against the Reds by crazy luck and a couple bad defensive plays...they decided to try and help Guerra out by at least providing a better defensive look.

[pacopete4]

Thames hasn't deserved to start recently. He's been terrible at the plate and since they seem bought in on Aguilar, he provides no defensive value in the OF.

[long ball]

Agreed that Thames just doesn't deserve starts right now.

 

Braun has been great in August. 169 wRC+.

 

Aguilar has been solid too. 122 wRC+ in August.

 

Thames has a wRC+ of 9 in August.

[OldHeidelberg]

Agreed that Thames just doesn't deserve starts right now.

 

Braun has been great in August. 169 wRC+.

 

Aguilar has been solid too. 122 wRC+ in August.

 

Thames has a wRC+ of 9 in August.

 

Hadn't realized it has been so drastic but Thames sure has faded just like last year.

[Roderick]

Official Lineup:

 

1. Cain - CF

2. Yelich - RF

3. Aguilar - 1B

4. Shaw - 2B

5. Braun - LF

6. Moustakas - 3B

7. Kratz - C

8. Arcia - SS

9. Guerra - P

 

Kinda wish that Thames was in the lineup, considering it's the Reds. Also kind of a bummer that Pina isn't playing, considering his hot bat. Also think Braun and Aguilar should be flip-flopped if both are in the lineup.

 

The only reason to play Kratz instead of Pina is that they feel Pina has to catch Peralta who is tomorrows pitcher. Kratz has probably hit better than expected, but his defense isn't that great. Pina should be getting at least 60% of the starts.

[tmwiese55]

Yea if Braun wasn't doing so well he'd be getting his chances but with Braun looking great combined with the stark defensive dropoff it is what it is. I know he's been crazy vs Cincy but the reality is that's just a small sample fluke and shouldn't be relied upon. I'm sure will Braun will get a maintenance day in one of the next two though and he'll get his chance.

[FVBrewerFan]

With no stats to back this up whatsoever, I have more confidence in Guerra than "Box of chocolates" Anderson right now.

[istanbultaye]

I just noticed that Christian Yelich is quietly leading the team in strikeouts.

[TURBO]

I just noticed that Christian Yelich is quietly leading the team in strikeouts.

 

Haven't checked, but does he lead the team in at bats as well?

 

What is his strike out %, that would mean a lot more than having the most...

[istanbultaye]

I just noticed that Christian Yelich is quietly leading the team in strikeouts.

 

Haven't checked, but does he lead the team in at bats as well?

 

What is his strike out %, that would mean a lot more than having the most...

 

Yes, he's leading the team in AB/PA, so it's certainly symptomatic of opportunity. Of players with 400+ PA, Aguilar has the highest strikeout rate at 25.6%. If we drop it down to 200 PA, Eric Thames is leading with 34.1%. Also, this year is looking like it will be Yelich's highest strikeout rate since his rookie year, but if his increased slugging is coming at the expense of raising his strikeout rate from 21% to 23%, it's naturally worth it.

[OldHeidelberg]

I guess it is notable that Yelich has close to the highest strikeout rate of his career as a Brewer considering how much this team loves to K over the last few years. It's like a virus. Even before seeing this I thought anecdotally he struck out a lot relative to what I thought we were getting when we made the trade. But yeah no complaints here, they hit a homer with the Yelich acquisition.