When/If Does Yelich Become an Extension Candidate?

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I realize we have him signed for 3 more seasons + a club option for 2022, which is part of what made him so expensive to acquire. That said, if he puts up two more .300/.350/.550 seasons in 2019 and 2020, does the window pass for which we can reasonably extend him (without overpaying?)

 

I realize the Braun extension doesn't look so good right now, but at the time it was a huge boost for the franchise to make one of the best players in the league a "brewer for life", especially with the impending departure of Fielder, Greinke, etc...

 

He'll be 30 in that final season (presumably under contract) in 2022, and turns 31 in December, 2022.

 

If he repeats his strong performance next season, do we try and extend him after 2019? Say 4 years/$100 million? Locks in $150m in career earnings for him, and keeps him with the Brewers for his Age 31/32/33/34 seasons.

 

Have to believe he is our franchise player/face of the franchise moving forward..

[MrTPlush]

Did the Braun saga, injury, and decline teach us nothing about unnecessary premature extensions?

[adambr2]

Did the Braun saga, injury, and decline teach us nothing about unnecessary premature extensions?

 

Yep. There's absolutely no reason to be concerned with an extension for Yelich right now. Enjoy the next 4+ years.

[JosephC]

Midseason 2021.

[Lathund]

Debating whether he should be offered an extention or not is putting the cart before the horse to a degree, as I think the first question to ask is if Yelich would even be interested in an early extension. He's already signed one extension, I don't think he'll pass again on testing the free agent market. A pre-arb extension is a case of you get 8 figures guaranteed, avoiding the risk of being out of baseball compeltely and earning nothing, but delaying and risking missing out on big free agent money. An extension now isn't as appealing to a player like Yelich, as if worst case scenario happens and decline/injury hits and he can't get anything in free agency, he'll still have earned $50m and so there's a lot less risk in gambling on yourself and on free agency. So any extension deal will have to be a lot closer to market value to be of interest to Yelich, and then it all of a sudden has less appeal for the Brewers as the savings compared to the risk the club takes aren't as big anymore.

[rickh150]

Prime candidate for a trade in a down year....... 2021 or 2022. The win window is open for three or four years.

 

I can't see the Crew re-signing another OF in their 30's for top $.

[torts]

If his production continues, I cant see the brewers affording Yelich to be honest

[TigerUppercut]

Debating whether he should be offered an extention or not is putting the cart before the horse to a degree, as I think the first question to ask is if Yelich would even be interested in an early extension. He's already signed one extension, I don't think he'll pass again on testing the free agent market. A pre-arb extension is a case of you get 8 figures guaranteed, avoiding the risk of being out of baseball compeltely and earning nothing, but delaying and risking missing out on big free agent money. An extension now isn't as appealing to a player like Yelich, as if worst case scenario happens and decline/injury hits and he can't get anything in free agency, he'll still have earned $50m and so there's a lot less risk in gambling on yourself and on free agency. So any extension deal will have to be a lot closer to market value to be of interest to Yelich, and then it all of a sudden has less appeal for the Brewers as the savings compared to the risk the club takes aren't as big anymore.

 

Based on last off season and given his age at the end of his current contract, are you sure?

[monty57]

I am generally in favor of extending young, pre-arby guys to extensions like the one Yelich is currently on, that add a couple of reasonably priced years onto the usual six years of "control."

 

I am generally against signing extensions that take moderately expensive players (guys nearing the end of arby, or guys who have already signed an extension) and pays them into their 30's.

 

Therefore, as good as Yelich is, I don't want to see us sign him to a relatively expensive contract into his declining years. Once players get past 30-31, they decline. Some decline quicker than others, but I don't like risking a lot of guaranteed money on guys in their decline years.

[KeithStone53151]

I am generally in favor of extending young, pre-arby guys to extensions like the one Yelich is currently on, that add a couple of reasonably priced years onto the usual six years of "control."

 

I am generally against signing extensions that take moderately expensive players (guys nearing the end of arby, or guys who have already signed an extension) and pays them into their 30's.

 

Therefore, as good as Yelich is, I don't want to see us sign him to a relatively expensive contract into his declining years. Once players get past 30-31, they decline. Some decline quicker than others, but I don't like risking a lot of guaranteed money on guys in their decline years.

 

I'm generally on board with this. I'll add that Yelich would certainly listen if we wanted to discuss an extension. I just fully expect his asking price to be relatively sky high. If we are willing to tack on 4-5 more years and $25 million per...he'd be nuts not to at least consider it. That's probably what it would take to get him to listen, and at that rate I'm really not that interest. It is probably in our best interest to trade him in 2020 or 2021 for a massive haul of prospects...likely a haul better than the one we gave up for him.

 

All that said, Yelich is the type of guy that will probably age pretty well at least offensively. Excellent mechanics and contact guy, if anything he's probably more likely to add power as he ages than lose it. It's still a much safer bet to trade him with 1-2 years left and restock.

[Outlander]

Prime candidate for a trade in a down year....... 2021 or 2022. The win window is open for three or four years.

 

I can't see the Crew re-signing another OF in their 30's for top $.

Well the Brewers did sign 32 year old Cain to a five year contract that ends the same year that Yelich's contract ends in 2022. Certainly too early to think extension now but will have to see where the Brewers are in a couple of years and where they are in the window to compete for the playoffs. If it looks like a rebuild is on the horizon may not want to extend as an extension may reduce his trade value. If things are looking good then consider extending another few years through his age 33 season.

[pacopete4]

If we draft well enough, extensions like this don't need to happen. Continue to churn out replacements and we will never have to overpay for an aging player again.

[TigerUppercut]

Prime candidate for a trade in a down year....... 2021 or 2022. The win window is open for three or four years.

 

I can't see the Crew re-signing another OF in their 30's for top $.

Well the Brewers did sign 32 year old Cain to a five year contract that ends the same year that Yelich's contract ends in 2022. Certainly too early to think extension now but will have to see where the Brewers are in a couple of years and where they are in the window to compete for the playoffs. If it looks like a rebuild is on the horizon may not want to extend as an extension may reduce his trade value. If things are looking good then consider extending another few years through his age 33 season.

 

For me, this is the best point in the thread. Not only would an extension be costly for us, it reduces his value significantly on the trade market. Small market teams like the Brewers need to maintain future flexibility and generally speaking, make trades that enhance long term viability. Extending Yelich eliminates both of those possibilities.

[clancyphile]

I am generally in favor of extending young, pre-arby guys to extensions like the one Yelich is currently on, that add a couple of reasonably priced years onto the usual six years of "control."

 

I am generally against signing extensions that take moderately expensive players (guys nearing the end of arby, or guys who have already signed an extension) and pays them into their 30's.

 

Therefore, as good as Yelich is, I don't want to see us sign him to a relatively expensive contract into his declining years. Once players get past 30-31, they decline. Some decline quicker than others, but I don't like risking a lot of guaranteed money on guys in their decline years.

 

I'm generally on board with this. I'll add that Yelich would certainly listen if we wanted to discuss an extension. I just fully expect his asking price to be relatively sky high. If we are willing to tack on 4-5 more years and $25 million per...he'd be nuts not to at least consider it. That's probably what it would take to get him to listen, and at that rate I'm really not that interest. It is probably in our best interest to trade him in 2020 or 2021 for a massive haul of prospects...likely a haul better than the one we gave up for him.

 

All that said, Yelich is the type of guy that will probably age pretty well at least offensively. Excellent mechanics and contact guy, if anything he's probably more likely to add power as he ages than lose it. It's still a much safer bet to trade him with 1-2 years left and restock.

 

I would see that as a fallback option, especially since by 2020/2021, Corey Ray and Troy Stokes could very well be in the outfield of Miller Park.

 

But if Yelich will extend, and won't break the team's bank... it would be a good idea to do so. By 2021, he could very well be a good option at first, especially if his added power is for real.

[monty57]

If we draft well enough, extensions like this don't need to happen. Continue to churn out replacements and we will never have to overpay for an aging player again.

 

 

I agree, but I'd say that it doesn't solely have to be the draft. If we continue to have a strong farm, whether that's through drafts, trade, international, or any other means, then "overpaying for an aging player" shouldn't have to happen often.

 

But the good thing about that strategy is that if we always have a number of pre-arby guys on the books (and guys who sign "team-friendly" extensions early), we will be able to afford some expensive players when and if it makes sense.

[brewcrewdue80]

Debating whether he should be offered an extention or not is putting the cart before the horse to a degree, as I think the first question to ask is if Yelich would even be interested in an early extension. He's already signed one extension, I don't think he'll pass again on testing the free agent market. A pre-arb extension is a case of you get 8 figures guaranteed, avoiding the risk of being out of baseball compeltely and earning nothing, but delaying and risking missing out on big free agent money. An extension now isn't as appealing to a player like Yelich, as if worst case scenario happens and decline/injury hits and he can't get anything in free agency, he'll still have earned $50m and so there's a lot less risk in gambling on yourself and on free agency. So any extension deal will have to be a lot closer to market value to be of interest to Yelich, and then it all of a sudden has less appeal for the Brewers as the savings compared to the risk the club takes aren't as big anymore.

 

Based on last off season and given his age at the end of his current contract, are you sure?

 

I'd guess this upcoming FA would be the real gauge on the kind of money Yelich may be looking at. FA growth in money 4years from now may make 25million feel like 18mil today. Which on that idea, Yelich's camp is testing FA. Already seen an extension.

 

On the end of topic's question-

2020 during the season. You'll have more data on him, value on an offer, what your minors replacements look like if you trade him or when losing him end of contract.

 

Right now, it's too early to consider this from both ends' perspective.

[owbc]

Agreed with the no extension folks--in general the risk of contract extensions (to buy out FA years) is too high and I would be fine if we never do it again, across the board.

[tmwiese55]

I don't see any reason this should be looked at until after the 2019 season at the earliest. The whole purpose of getting him was a cost controlled player for several years, why immediately then turn him into an expensive contract. It makes no sense for a small market team unless it's extremely team friendly money and/or team options.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

6-6 tonight with the Cycle.

 

Cain and Yelich are so fun to watch.... Braun/Moose/Shaw have moments... but man the rest of the team looks awful. Hopefully CY can be a bright spot for the next 6-7 years

[adambr2]

Heck, I'd consider trading him around offseason 2020/21 depending on our situation at the time. (ducks)

[reillymcshane]

6-6 tonight with the Cycle.

 

Cain and Yelich are so fun to watch.... Braun/Moose/Shaw have moments... but man the rest of the team looks awful. Hopefully CY can be a bright spot for the next 6-7 years

He has been great of late. .347 BA and a 1.118 OPS since the all-star break. Him and Cain really set up the offense. It would be nice to see the rest of the team step up. Braun has been better of late. And Moose has done a solid job. I'd love to see Schoop get hot.

[adambr2]

6-6 tonight with the Cycle.

 

Cain and Yelich are so fun to watch.... Braun/Moose/Shaw have moments... but man the rest of the team looks awful. Hopefully CY can be a bright spot for the next 6-7 years

I'd love to see Schoop get hot.

 

He already has. 7 for his last 19 with 3 HR and a 1.295 OPS.

[homer]

Yelich's line post all-star break: .372/.413/.776

 

Is that good?

[istanbultaye]

[sarcasm]His Avg/OBP split is too low![/sarcasm]

[dlk9s]

Gotta wait until he has a down week before offering him an extension.