Goals for 2018/Expectations moving forward

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

There may be a thread about what would make 2018 a success already (I thought I remembered one but cannot seem to find it), so mods feel free to merge or move as needed.

 

Mainly, I wanted to gauge where we are and what would make 2018 a success. I never had realistic hope for the division and thought the WC was the best we could hope for coming in. Lately I have been wondering about how much a WC berth indicates success, so wanted to post a thought or two.

 

I think winning 87-90 games shows progress. Independent of other results, that menas improvement over a surprise 2017 in a more competitive NL. Especially with Nelson's injury and regression from a number of players, it would be hard to ask for much more.

 

That said, I feel like 2019 needs to see the Brewers really have a realistic shot at a division title. The pitching staff should be talented if we add Burnes to the mix, and maybe we get Hiura on the field and hitting too. I think the roster gives the team a chance to compete for 3-4 years, but teams like us cannot waste any of them. If we miss a playoff spot this year, so be it, but expecting to play and win in October should begin with 2019. I think that is reasonable and fair.

[Boomer5]

I’d need to see that we have building block players that won’t regress. Yelich and Hader for sure qualifies.

 

I don’t think Hiura is going be our guy in 2019. He has hit a bit of a wall in AA so I’m pumping the brakes on the Molitor comps. Burnes will likely be in our rotation. Nelson and Davies should be back too.

 

We will lose Moose, Soria, and likely Schoop because there is no good reason to pay him $10M.

[clancyphile]

I’d need to see that we have building block players that won’t regress. Yelich and Hader for sure qualifies.

 

I don’t think Hiura is going be our guy in 2019. He has hit a bit of a wall in AA so I’m pumping the brakes on the Molitor comps. Burnes will likely be in our rotation. Nelson and Davies should be back too.

 

We will lose Moose, Soria, and likely Schoop because there is no good reason to pay him $10M.

 

Schoop's value now is that he gives Hiura time to develop properly and not be rushed to the majors, and pushes back when his clock starts.

 

That, plus offensive production at SS/2B, is worth $10 million.

[StearnBrewliever]

I really really really wish moose would stay

[josh]

1. Be in the mix for a playoff spot.

2. Build the farm back up a little bit.

 

I want them looking at a multi-year rolling window of competitiveness, never selling the whole farm to make a push, usually being in the mix and playing meaningful baseball in September, even if this all means they’re never the runaway favorite for the division.

 

Right now it sure looks like they’ll be in the mix for the next couple of years. So what I’d like to see is some nice new seeds planted and some present seeds growing at the lower levels of the farm.

[Ennder]

Play with playoff hopes in September, stretch out some younger players to get them ready for full season MLB baseball and get them some experience. That would be the goals to me and what I would consider success. I think we will reach those.

[LouisEly]

Given how much Stearns/ownership invested in the 2018 team, I expect the playoffs. I don't expect a division title, but I expect the playoffs. Some guys won't be back next year, either by free agency or by trade. They will have excess starting pitching next year and they can turn that into patching holes or prospects.

 

But they need a taste of the playoffs this year so that they aren't overwhelmed or intimidated by it next year. Winning in the playoffs is a little different than winning in the regular season, and that is something that needs to be learned by experience. Packed stadiums, loud opposing fans, different use of pitchers, higher pressure - it's a different environment, and very few teams win the first time they go through it.

[rickh150]

I expect them to be in the playoff mix this year and next, making it this year or next.

[3and2Fastball]

This season has been a strange one. I'm not sure who the Brewers are and what direction we are headed towards.

 

The signing of Cain and trading for Yelich represented a desire for defense and players who make contact and get on base, somewhat of a change in direction (I thought) from the 3TO offense of 2017. Moustakas also represents that type of player (at least offensively). I applaud that direction, even if it is to balance out having too many 3TO players. Hiura seems like that type of player too.

 

Lately the desire to cram as much offense into spots (Schoop is not a Shortstop, Shaw is not a Second Baseman, Thames is not a Right Fielder) while sacrificing defense seems bizarre and short sighted.

 

We really need Hiura, Ray, Burnes & Peralta to develop into star players in order to have a realistic shot at contending (in my opinion). I'm not as optimistic as I once was about the Brewers' future...

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

1. Be in the mix for a playoff spot.

2. Build the farm back up a little bit.

 

I want them looking at a multi-year rolling window of competitiveness, never selling the whole farm to make a push, usually being in the mix and playing meaningful baseball in September, even if this all means they’re never the runaway favorite for the division.

 

Right now it sure looks like they’ll be in the mix for the next couple of years. So what I’d like to see is some nice new seeds planted and some present seeds growing at the lower levels of the farm.

 

I agree with this, but I do wonder where that new farm talent will come from. This team really doesn't seem to be in a place to carry a Rule 5 guy, and the international market seems to me to feature players that are pretty far away from making an impact. Yelich, Cain, and Braun are all here for a while, and I think you could say the same about Aguilar, Shaw, and Arcia. Santana isn't going to bring much back even if he is deemed redundant, and, while I could see the Crew parting with Thames, he likely has little value too, especially so close to the end of a deal. Maybe if the young rotation arms pan out, you could part with one of our depth SPs, but that's risky because pitchers break and because you might not get a lot back.

 

I expect, as you say, there to be enough talent in the system to keep the team competitive through or near the end of Cain's deal, but to get to that place where we're just continually putting out good teams with a shot is going to take some near flawless drafting and smart leveraging of major-league assets.

[brewmann04]

the draft is the key for the crew and the brewers need to build on that with another solid draft.

[MNBrew]

I’d need to see that we have building block players that won’t regress. Yelich and Hader for sure qualifies.

 

I don’t think Hiura is going be our guy in 2019. He has hit a bit of a wall in AA so I’m pumping the brakes on the Molitor comps. Burnes will likely be in our rotation. Nelson and Davies should be back too.

 

We will lose Moose, Soria, and likely Schoop because there is no good reason to pay him $10M.

- There's a mutual option on Moustakas' contract and he sure fits the team well, but he's not cheap next year and there's that small matter of position redundancy if Travis Shaw's not going to be an everyday 2B.

- There's a team option on Soria's contract, and I think the Brewers will want to keep him.

- At least based on how this month has gone, I'm not sure I'd want Schoop back, but I doubt they'd just to give Schoop away for nothing (as in non-tendering him).

 

The sum of those two options & final arbitration year contract probably represents a lot of money, and keeping both Moose & Schoop would perpetuate a non-ideal defensive infield, so I'd think something eventually has to give.

 

It would also seem that either Santana or Broxton would have to make the team or be gone b/c they're both out of options, so something eventually has to give there, too.

 

The depth they have now is pretty cool. They have to maintain that, but do so through some inevitable turnover due to budget, individual players' circumstances as noted above, and other players hopefully playing themselves into (or out of) the mix. Maybe Schoop is packaged with another asset or two for that elusive glizty SP acquisition we've been waiting on since the 2017 season ended -- and if it's with other MLB-roster fringe guys, that depth has to be replenished somehow.

 

As to the thread topic specifically, I think it's all about playing like a top-level team much more consistently because they really should be a playoff team.

[Lathund]

Wildcard would be a success. If we miss out but with a record that 90%+ of the time gets a playoff spot, that'd not be a success but it'd be acceptable. It's amazing that we're even in a position to feel this way about this team though, with the start of the rebuild being barely 3 years ago.

 

For 2019 I expect to continue down the same path, not much in terms of major moves unless a too-good-to-miss opportunity comes up (like Yelich this past offseason). Apart from Moose and Soria with their options, all key players (Well, unless you consider Miley a key player) are under team control for 2019. Looking at it by position:

 

OF: Braun, Yelich, Cain to get the everyday at bats when fit. What I'd like to see though is a 4th actual outfielder on the roster (Someone who can play RF well) as Braun is unlikely to be a full time player, not just Perez or Thames acting as the 4th OF. Whether that's Santana, Broxton or an early promotion of a Stokes/Taylor/Ray or even a cheap outside move is of less importance. Either way, no need to invest any real prospects or major money there.

 

Corner IF: With no QO attached to him, and a productive season behind him, Moose will be looking to get more than 1/$15m on the open market. I count on him being gone. Shaw should be the everyday 3B in 2019 as well. Having two 1B only (more or less) players with no minor league options is something that makes the roster rather inflexible, so as much as I like both Aguilar and Thames, I believe a trade needs to be made. Aguilar being younger, cheaper and probably better (Though I don't expect him to be the 140 wRc+ player he's been this year going forward) and seemingly less injury prone would make him the logical option to keep. If the return for dealing Aguilar is significant enough, I'd be tempted. But I don't imagine it would be. So trade Thames, and try to make sure there's a good 3B option on the roster to cover for both 1B (with Shaw there) and 3B.

 

Middle IF: Well, if the above areas were relatively straightforward, this one isn't. Firstly, one needs to see what Arcia and Schoop do for the rest of the year. I didn't like the Schoop move, but he's also not as bad as he has been so far for the Brewers. For his career, he's roughly average on offense and defense, or in other words a 2+ WAR player. If he gets back to that level, he's fine as a bridge to Hiura even at a steep $10m. Noone should be giving up on Arcia, and with 2 minor league options remaining after this year there's absolutely no need to. But one needs to consider if he should be the opening day starter at SS or not. Mauricio Dubon should be given every chance to win a 25-man roster spot if he's fully recovered from his torn ACL. As bad as SS has been this year, I still think you see what you have in Arcia and Dubon first. If Arcia continues to struggle ROS and Dubon's rehab goes poorly, then you might want to reconsider though. So to sum up: If Arcia and Schoop look decent ROS, no big moves here either, and you roll with Arcia, Dubon, Schoop (and perhaps Perez in a utility role) until Hiura is ready. If one or more of them don't look like likely contributors, you consider a short-term move here.

 

Catcher: With Vogt sticking around and seemingly being a big presence in the dugout every game, and not making another move at catcher, you'd imagine that there's a decent chance the club brings him back next year if he's healthy enough. Regardless of which, something needs to be done. I'm a believer in Jacob Nottingham, but I'd prefer to have him start in AAA next year as the 3rd catcher. There are a lot of catchers hitting free agency this year. Most of them are getting rather old and aren't exactly superstars, but among the following there ought to be a few that could improve us: Grandal, Lucroy, Ramos, Suzuki, Mesoraco, Wieters, Maldonado, Flowers, Ellis, Rivera. Or there's JT Realmuto, but I'm not a fan of giving up what it'd cost. So, finding someone to parner Piña who can get us a 90 wRC+ or better while playing competent defense should be the goal.

 

SP: Chacin, Anderson, Nelson, Davies, Guerra, Peralta, Burnes, Woodruff and maybe even Brown. You have 5 proven starters (Though injuries to Davies and Nelson create some question marks) and 4 young guys who you need to see what they can do. IMO you add nothing now; you see what you have in those guys. If a couple of them turn into mid-rotation starters or better, you're set. If not, then consider adding.

 

RP: Jeffress and Hader are among the best 1-2 punches in the majors. If that $10m isn't needed elsewhere, Soria can add to that. I have hope for Knebel. He's still striking out a ton, he's even walking slightly fewer than last year. If his straighter fastball, and the harder contact that he's giving up, is related to his injury there's a good chance he bounces back. That's potentially an excellent late-inning crew. From Barnes, Williams, Jennings, QTC, Ramirez, Thomson, Houser, Lyles you can probably fill out the pen well enough. But if there are good relievers out there for reasonably prices, snap them up.

 

So, there's obviously going to be players improving and regressing from year to year. Anderson, Davies, Braun (Though he's certainly coming around lately), Nelson (through injury, obviously), Santana, Knebel, Arcia, Piña and Sogard were all major contributors last year who have, to varying degrees, contributed less this year. And we are still where we are. Some of them might be done, some might rebound. But what I want to say with this is that we're not succeeding on the basis of having a ton of players exceed expectations or overperforming; Aguilar, Guerra and maybe Jeffress are really the only ones. When talking about regression, people often only consider the negative aspect, but it is of course regression to the mean. On the balance of that, I'd expect that if the exact same roster returned next year, they'd overall see a slightly positive regression towards the mean. With even one or two moves to strengthen the most glaring weaknesses, I don't see why 2019 won't be as good or better than 2018.

 

Sadly, the NL Central in 2019 still hinges on the Cubs. If they succeed in adressing their starting pitching (and they have the money to spend on it) then they are still the team to beat and the clear favorites to win the division. Baseball is still baseball, and anything can happen, but the Cubs are still very, very good and winning the division is difficult and unlikely for anyone else.

[buckybrewer232]

Given how much Stearns/ownership invested in the 2018 team, I expect the playoffs. I don't expect a division title, but I expect the playoffs. Some guys won't be back next year, either by free agency or by trade. They will have excess starting pitching next year and they can turn that into patching holes or prospects.

 

But they need a taste of the playoffs this year so that they aren't overwhelmed or intimidated by it next year. Winning in the playoffs is a little different than winning in the regular season, and that is something that needs to be learned by experience. Packed stadiums, loud opposing fans, different use of pitchers, higher pressure - it's a different environment, and very few teams win the first time they go through it.

 

I agree with this. At this point, I expect the playoffs. If they end up missing a WC spot this season, I will consider it a failure. It may seem harsh, but they traded 3-4 of their top 10 prospects for rentals. If you miss the playoffs after that, it is a failure (especially for a small market team). Not to mention it would come after leading the NL for half the season. Yes, yes I understand the rentals could be back but Moose is gone, Soria is probably 50/50, and Schoop probably will be back- but I'm not sure he should be.

 

I'm also not as confident for the next few years as everyone else because the NL is only going to get stronger. The Cubs are still loaded with young ML talent and are going nowhere, the Cardinals will be there, Pirates and Reds are not far off, Braves are going to be loaded, LAD will be back, Phillies/Dbacks/Rockies will all be there again next year, Padres are loaded in the minors, etc. etc.

 

I'm also starting to get a little less confident with the system's talent as a whole. There is depth, but it's depth of marginal/average players. Our top 2 prospects at this point are Hiura and Ray. Everyone on here seems to peg Hiura as a sure thing. I think he'll be a good player, but not sure he's ever a star. It's still not a sure thing that he can stick at 2nd base and for all the talk of him mashing, he has a collective .815 OPS in the minors this season. Good sure, but he's not dominating the way people act like he is. He is advanced for his level, though. It was nice to see Ray finally put together a solid season, but he still has a lot of questions as well. The HRs and SBs are nice but he still K's a third of his ABs and has 3 times more K's than BBs.

 

The offseason will be interesting. They are backloaded at some positions so will probably need to move guys, but guys they will want to move aren't going to bring back much. As someone mentioned earlier, you can move Thames or Santana but I'm not sure they have much value. Same with the pitching depth. You can try to move a Guerra or Suter, or even Davies/Woodruff, but they probably don't bring much back either. I would look into moving Aguilar personally because I don't see him repeating 2018, but I'm sure other teams are skeptical as well.

[OldHeidelberg]

It has been a bit of a strange rebuild for sure, just a glance at the 25 man and I see only Arcia,Hader,Peralta, and Burnes as recent top prospects contributing. Meanwhile we have traded 8-9 top 30 prospects this year including a couple of top 5 and several from the 6-15 range. It feels more like we are in a couple of year window now and may still need to spend a lot of our remaining capital on a TOR guy like we did with with Greinke but there is still a lot to shake out with the staff going into next year. Not complaining, this story isn't close to finished, just an observation that the rebuild isn't at all what I expected 2 years ago.

 

For this year I feel missing the playoffs would be a failure considering the strong start and the deadline moves we made, of course if we miss while winning 90 it is just some back luck. Next year I expect about the same, a lot depends on Nelson and the upside of Peralta/Burnes.

[sveumrules]

^^^Great summation, Lathund. I agree with pretty much everything you wrote.

 

How much ca$h there is to spend in the offseason will likely come down to how the Moose/Soria/Schoop situations play out & how deep of a postseason run we do or don't make, but the one free agent I see as an obvious target is Grandal. Ramos or Suzuki would be upgrades too & won't have the QO to deal with.

[Thurston Fluff]

1. Be in the mix for a playoff spot.

2. Build the farm back up a little bit.

 

I want them looking at a multi-year rolling window of competitiveness, never selling the whole farm to make a push, usually being in the mix and playing meaningful baseball in September, even if this all means they’re never the runaway favorite for the division.

 

Right now it sure looks like they’ll be in the mix for the next couple of years. So what I’d like to see is some nice new seeds planted and some present seeds growing at the lower levels of the farm.

 

I agree with this, but I do wonder where that new farm talent will come from. This team really doesn't seem to be in a place to carry a Rule 5 guy, and the international market seems to me to feature players that are pretty far away from making an impact. Yelich, Cain, and Braun are all here for a while, and I think you could say the same about Aguilar, Shaw, and Arcia. Santana isn't going to bring much back even if he is deemed redundant, and, while I could see the Crew parting with Thames, he likely has little value too, especially so close to the end of a deal. Maybe if the young rotation arms pan out, you could part with one of our depth SPs, but that's risky because pitchers break and because you might not get a lot back.

 

I expect, as you say, there to be enough talent in the system to keep the team competitive through or near the end of Cain's deal, but to get to that place where we're just continually putting out good teams with a shot is going to take some near flawless drafting and smart leveraging of major-league assets.

 

I think the next couple years we can maintain our current level of play with who we have coming up now or are here already and still be able to part with a couple redundant pieces. I wouldn't be opposed to rebuilding the minor league depth by trading some guys with limited time left on their contracts. Someone like Chase Anderson or Thames could get us one or two low minors prospects that are a few years away but have some upside. they won't bring in big names or major numbers but they can get us prospects who end up like the ones we lost for Moose, Schoop and Soria. The international market may not help in the near future but if we keep getting them every year in five or so years there will be a steady string of them helping out. The only way for that to happen is to start now and keep going.

[clancyphile]

I agree with this, but I do wonder where that new farm talent will come from. This team really doesn't seem to be in a place to carry a Rule 5 guy, and the international market seems to me to feature players that are pretty far away from making an impact. Yelich, Cain, and Braun are all here for a while, and I think you could say the same about Aguilar, Shaw, and Arcia. Santana isn't going to bring much back even if he is deemed redundant, and, while I could see the Crew parting with Thames, he likely has little value too, especially so close to the end of a deal. Maybe if the young rotation arms pan out, you could part with one of our depth SPs, but that's risky because pitchers break and because you might not get a lot back.

 

I expect, as you say, there to be enough talent in the system to keep the team competitive through or near the end of Cain's deal, but to get to that place where we're just continually putting out good teams with a shot is going to take some near flawless drafting and smart leveraging of major-league assets.

 

I think the next couple years we can maintain our current level of play with who we have coming up now or are here already and still be able to part with a couple redundant pieces. I wouldn't be opposed to rebuilding the minor league depth by trading some guys with limited time left on their contracts. Someone like Chase Anderson or Thames could get us one or two low minors prospects that are a few years away but have some upside. they won't bring in big names or major numbers but they can get us prospects who end up like the ones we lost for Moose, Schoop and Soria. The international market may not help in the near future but if we keep getting them every year in five or so years there will be a steady string of them helping out. The only way for that to happen is to start now and keep going.

 

There are other ways to get prospects:

Six-year free agents are one avenue - Both Hager and Moore would be solid middle IF options for next year.

Taiwan, Korea, and Japan may also be options - Thames was a huge find - who says you can't find others?

 

On the trade front, I'd look at moving Broxton, Thames, Anderson, Guerra, and Arcia over the off-season to try to get some of the prospects from other teams - even in an Adam Lind-type return.

[long ball]

Goal for 2018- make the playoffs. Even a game 163 tie breaker would feel pretty good. Anything less will be disappointing.

 

Expectations moving forward. I think they need to reel off 3-4 playoff appearances in 18-21. A lot of the future success will depend on the development of Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff (although I'm thoroughly lost as to what they want out of Woodruff going forward). Additionally, does Jimmy ever pitch effectively in the MLB again will be a huge factor as well.

[reillymcshane]

2018: my goal is to win the World Series. For that, we have to make the playoffs. I expect them to do that, but it will not be simple. There are too many teams in the hunt for playoffs spots. Cubs and Braves lead their divisions by 4 and 3.5 games. The Backs by 1. The Cardinals, Brewers, Dodgers, Rockies and Phillies are all within 3 games of each other for the Wild Card spots.

 

That means five teams are going to be scrambling for two Wild Card spots. No one can afford the have a bad or even mediocre rest of the season.

 

Hopefully, our depth proves to be a difference maker down the stretch. But even our depth has been stretched in some places.

 

In the end, I think we can win 16-17 of our last 30 games. That will put us around 90 wins, which should get us a Wild Card slot.

 

2019: I don't think the Brewers will be big players in FA. I could see a play for Patrick Corbin, but even then, he will be making a lot of money and I doubt we overpay for a guy who is good, but not great.

 

For the rotation, we have Nelson and Davies coming back, plus full seasons from Peralta and Burnes. Add in the returning Chacin, Anderson and Guerra, and you have a solid core of starters to choose from. Brandon Woodruff is also available.

 

For position players, I am guessing the club signs a 2B to a one-year deal. A guy like Brian Dozier would be a good option - a guy looking to rebuild his value. This will give Keston Hiura a full year to mature, plus become more proficient in the field. Schoop is also an option - assuming he can redeem himself over the rest of the year. He's been a quality player in the past, and we may opt to keep him to play 2B.

 

I think the club commits to Arcia at SS, but I'm betting they add a veteran SS such as Jordy Mercer as insurance in case Arcia struggles. A guy like Mercer could provide depth around the infield if Arcia emerges as an everyday player. If Arcia struggles, he can step in and play a competent - but not very exciting - shortstop.

 

I think the club will look at a veteran catcher to go with Pina. While Nottingham has been fine when healthy this year, his track record is erratic. Instead, they'll bring in a veteran to go with Manny. Catchers always get dinged up during the year, and Nottingham will get a chance at some point.

 

I am not sure what the team will do with Thames. He doesn't seem to have a position with Aguilar emerging at 1B. I just hate seeing him in the OF. I think a foursome of Braun, Yelich, Cain and Broxton is sufficient for covering our OF needs. And Perez can step in as needed. I'm not sure what to expect from Santana.

 

I think the club will look to build a power bullpen around Hader, Jeffress, Knebel, Barnes, T. Williams, Houser and a few others. A lefty like Quintin Costa-Torres may be an answer for us as well.

 

I won't be surprised if the club sniffs around at some trades, but I doubt anything big happens. The team has shown a reluctance to trade off a guy like Hiura, but if someone like deGrom or MadBaum becomes available, you never know. However, if those kinds of guys do become available, there are other teams with better assets than what we have to offer.

 

Of course, the Crew are bargain hunters with regard to FAs, so if someone falls into their lap, they could land someone interesting.

 

As a note, Shaw and Yelich are our primary left-handed hitters, especially if Thames is traded. They could look at adding a left-handed bat to fill the slot at 2B or catcher.

 

So, going forward I think the team will rely on young arms maturing, such Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff and Houser, plus the return of Nelson and Davies, to solidify the rotation. Most other free agents just won't be difference makers, so why overpay.

 

On offense, I think the team will aim to solidify 2B, and have a decent back up ready if Arcia falters again. This likely means dipping into the medium/lower echelons of free agency - nothing longterm and nothing to break the books.

 

Finally, Stearns is a guy who looks everywhere for players, so I wouldn't be surprised if they came up with something no one expected. But for now, they will stay their course. They will build from within, make some modest free agent moves, and provide the club with financial flexibility.

[DougJonesChangeUp]

What about trading Travis Shaw for some pitching and signing Moose?

[MrTPlush]

What about trading Travis Shaw for some pitching and signing Moose?

 

Who is giving up higher end MLB pitching for a good, but not elite bat? Easier said than done to be honest. We tried that with Santana and flat out failed.

[coolhandluke121]

Really good year. Let's face it - last year's roster was not very talented. Therefore you have to consider winning 85+ again despite all the inevitable regression to be a successful season. They made the organization stronger overall and will probably improve their record without giving up any payroll flexibility or prospects that they couldn't afford to lose.

 

With Suter, Nelson, and Davies hardly contributing most of the year, you basically lost 3 of your only 4 respectable starters from last season and still improved. Patching together a serviceable rotation without making any short-sighted moves was really impressive. Last year, they got pretty lucky and won 86. This year, they got pretty unlucky and will probably win a few more than that.

 

Counsell continues to show signs of being a good manager. There are some legitimate complaints, but a lot of the second-guessing really just goes to show how much guesswork is involved. Things didn't go their way with the pen after the ASB but the same strategies looked brilliant in the first half and it carried them to the best record in the NL for much of the year. Pitchers didn't execute, they played way too many consecutive games before and after the ASB, their starters can't go 6+, and they guessed wrong a lot in terms of when to use relievers and when to save them. Seriously, I agree that they should have used Hader in Jeffress deficits a little more often, but there's nothing they could do about having big deficits several games in a row and having no reason to use them. Then they'd need their best relievers several days in a row. Luck was a factor. In a way, just like last season, milking so many extra wins out of a flawed roster compromised some fans' ability to maintain reasonable expectations. Some fans seem to expect that #1 seed, which was never going to happen. Come on.

 

This has the backbone of a good team for a long time because they have talent and good management. They're still on the way up and they just need more time to patch all the holes. That's what this year was about - continuing to show promise while being resourceful and innovative and disciplined, which is what a small market team needs to do. The disappointment ultimately stems from the fact that they still had to play some major liabilities, but you have to expect a few bad players on a small market team that was tanking as recently as 2 years ago. They have proven more than capable of plugging those holes with the limited resources they have, including building from within (a lot of their best talent is still too young to consistently contribute positively), and I'm confident they will continue to make incremental improvements in the back of the bullpen and at the bottom of the order.

 

I expect 90+ wins with a much better run differential next season. I expect Arcia, Barnes, Williams, and Peralta to be a little more consistent. I expect Nelson to fall short of his 2017 standards, but still be an upgrade in the rotation. Schoop is slump-prone, but ultimately he's better than Villar/Sogard in the long run. I think they'll have Soria all year. I'm really excited for the next 3 years.

[istanbultaye]

I really like Shaw, but I've got to agree that Shaw alone wouldn't net the Brewers a starter that would be a true upgrade. I also like him better than Moose (A better record of OBP), he's under control / cheaper longer, so I'd be a bit disappointed to make that move. That said, if Shaw was part of a package that could pick up the much ballyhooed "One True Ace", I could probably bring myself around to it.