If the Brewers miss the playoffs....

[Brewever]

I'm a Arab born brewers fan, haha yes, i know!

 

Ok, so what if the Brewers miss the playoffs? People a few months ago seemed alot more confident about making the playoffs. I seen people trying to matchup our rotations verse others in the playoffs. Weren't we 80% to make the playoffs a few months ago?? I forgot the source. Now I see slot of people saying, "If we make the playoffs"

 

I keep seeing people saying even if they miss the playoffs the brewers are "On schedule" Well I have a few questions for those people.

 

1.Who made this schedule, when did they make it, and where can I find what it says about the brewers in '19 '20 '21? Heck, id like to make some bets!

 

2. At what point in time will people stop saying the Brewers are on schedule(if the brewers are not producing results). What if the crew misses the playoffs this year and in '19? What if they make the playoffs this year or next year but into the 1 game playoff and get smoked. Is that success? Is that on schedule? Will a 1 game playoff loss be sufficient next year?

 

3.If the brewers miss the playoffs this year, by say 3 games...is anybody fired? What if the Brewers win more games this year but miss the playoffs by more then 1 game like last year? What if the Brewers end up with less wins this year then last, and obviously miss the playoffs? Still on schedule after 2 huge off-season acquisitions?

 

4. Darnell Coles....is he the scape goat? Does CC have any heat on his butt, this year or next?

 

 

I personally think some of these people that say the brewers are in schedule just look for an average team a couple games above. 500. Anything more and they are ahead of schedule. Anything less and they are ahead of schedule. I really feel these people would justify being 15 games under .500 somehow.

 

I'm really trying to understand this. I think it's a cop out honestly. If they don't make the playoffs after their start again, saying they are still on pace and over achieving, that is a gosh darn cop out. Plain and simple.

 

 

Any answers from non condescending smart brewer fans would be awesome. Or general thoughts on missing the playoffs this year.

 

Can we keep it on topic guys, no attacks, Insults, don't be condescending, I see alot of that here.

[Lathund]

1.Who made this schedule, when did they make it, and where can I find what it says about the brewers in '19 '20 '21? Heck, id like to make some bets!

 

It's more about looking at past rebuilds/teardowns, and seeing how long it usually takes for a team to become competitive again. Brewers started their teardown at the deadline in 2015, and started playing .500 ball around the deadline in 2016 and winning baseball in 2017. That's a lot earlier than you normally expect to see results.

 

2. At what point in time will people stop saying the Brewers are on schedule(if the brewers are not producing results). What if the crew misses the playoffs this year and in '19? What if they make the playoffs this year or next into the 1 game playoff and get smoked. Is that success? Is that on schedule? Will a 1 game playoff loss be sufficient next year?

 

It depends on how it happens. If the WC game comes about with like the second or third best record in the NL, then yeah that's a success sadly spoiled by the randomness of a 1-game winner takes all format. Missing the playoffs this year to me says nothing about on schedule or not. The team is competitive, but with some major holes still. Everyone is under team control for 2019, and most beyond that.

 

3.If the brewers miss the playoffs this year, by say 3 games...is anybody fired? What if the Brewers win more games this year but miss the playoffs by more then 1 game like last year? What if the Brewers end up with less wins this year then last, and obviously miss the playoffs? Still on schedule after 2 huge off-season acquisitions?

 

Depends on who you mean by "anybody". Stearns is not getting fired regardless of playoff in 2018 or 2019. Counsell is unlikely to, and if it happens I'd argue it's more a case of having found someone even better, than as a result of having performed poorly enough to be sacked.

 

4. Darnell Coles....is he the scape goat? Does CC have any heat on his butt, this year or next?

 

Impossible from the outside to really judge a hitting coach and what impact he really has, positive or negative. Probably the most likely spot on the coaching team to see change though. For CC; see above.

 

5. So as far as being on schedule, slot of people say brewers are. So the schedule was dominating most of the firsy half and now being a couple games back of the cubs. First half domination and second half fade was what was in the schedule for the '18 brewers?

 

Yeah, not gonna bother with that.

 

 

I personally think some of these people that say the brewers are in schedule just look for an average team a couple games above. 500. Anything more and they are ahead of schedule. Anything less and they are ahead of schedule. I really feel these people would justify being 15 games under .500 somehow.

 

I'm really trying to understand this.

 

The phrasing and tone of the questions doesn't really imply trying to really understand, they sound like someone who has made up his mind and is trying to argue for why the team isn't on schedule. I don't recognize the above at all. It's not about just looking at the current record, but about the state of the organization. For instance, the Royals 80-82 in 2017 was a disaster and definitely not on schedule; they had a team filled with impending free agents (Cain, Hosmer, Moustakas, Escobar) and a poor farm system. It was their last chance to win anything for many years. The Rays finished with the same 80-82 record, but without the FA situation, without any awful big contracts holding them back, with a ton of young pitching talent etc. One team had a bright future, one didn't.

 

So going back to the Brewers: The team is 3 years removed from the start of the rebuild, less than 2 years removed from finishing the teardown (Thornburg trade). The team has held the NL best record for large parts of the season, and are currently in a playoff spot and still have a shot at winning the division. This is with no impending free agents this year other than Kratz, Miley and potentially Moustakas (Mutual option) so everyone is coming back for 2019. Then for 2020, only Chacin and Jennings among the 2018 contributors aren't coming back. Plenty of players who recently made it to MLB (Hader, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff) or look likely to do so soon (Dubon, Nottingham, Ray, Hiura etc).

 

Noone can predict the future, but MLB baseball is largely a cyclical affair, and everything points to the Brewers still being on the upswing of that. 13 games over .500 in mid-August, would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, and more likely to improve than regress going forward? Yeah, I'll say we're on schedule.

[Brewever]

1.Who made this schedule, when did they make it, and where can I find what it says about the brewers in '19 '20 '21? Heck, id like to make some bets!

 

It's more about looking at past rebuilds/teardowns, and seeing how long it usually takes for a team to become competitive again. Brewers started their teardown at the deadline in 2015, and started playing .500 ball around the deadline in 2016 and winning baseball in 2017. That's a lot earlier than you normally expect to see results.

 

2. At what point in time will people stop saying the Brewers are on schedule(if the brewers are not producing results). What if the crew misses the playoffs this year and in '19? What if they make the playoffs this year or next into the 1 game playoff and get smoked. Is that success? Is that on schedule? Will a 1 game playoff loss be sufficient next year?

 

It depends on how it happens. If the WC game comes about with like the second or third best record in the NL, then yeah that's a success sadly spoiled by the randomness of a 1-game winner takes all format. Missing the playoffs this year to me says nothing about on schedule or not. The team is competitive, but with some major holes still. Everyone is under team control for 2019, and most beyond that.

 

3.If the brewers miss the playoffs this year, by say 3 games...is anybody fired? What if the Brewers win more games this year but miss the playoffs by more then 1 game like last year? What if the Brewers end up with less wins this year then last, and obviously miss the playoffs? Still on schedule after 2 huge off-season acquisitions?

 

Depends on who you mean by "anybody". Stearns is not getting fired regardless of playoff in 2018 or 2019. Counsell is unlikely to, and if it happens I'd argue it's more a case of having found someone even better, than as a result of having performed poorly enough to be sacked.

 

4. Darnell Coles....is he the scape goat? Does CC have any heat on his butt, this year or next?

 

Impossible from the outside to really judge a hitting coach and what impact he really has, positive or negative. Probably the most likely spot on the coaching team to see change though. For CC; see above.

 

5. So as far as being on schedule, slot of people say brewers are. So the schedule was dominating most of the firsy half and now being a couple games back of the cubs. First half domination and second half fade was what was in the schedule for the '18 brewers?

 

Yeah, not gonna bother with that.

 

 

I personally think some of these people that say the brewers are in schedule just look for an average team a couple games above. 500. Anything more and they are ahead of schedule. Anything less and they are ahead of schedule. I really feel these people would justify being 15 games under .500 somehow.

 

I'm really trying to understand this.

 

The phrasing and tone of the questions doesn't really imply trying to really understand, they sound like someone who has made up his mind and is trying to argue for why the team isn't on schedule. I don't recognize the above at all. It's not about just looking at the current record, but about the state of the organization. For instance, the Royals 80-82 in 2017 was a disaster and definitely not on schedule; they had a team filled with impending free agents (Cain, Hosmer, Moustakas, Escobar) and a poor farm system. It was their last chance to win anything for many years. The Rays finished with the same 80-82 record, but without the FA situation, without any awful big contracts holding them back, with a ton of young pitching talent etc. One team had a bright future, one didn't.

 

So going back to the Brewers: The team is 3 years removed from the start of the rebuild, less than 2 years removed from finishing the teardown (Thornburg trade). The team has held the NL best record for large parts of the season, and are currently in a playoff spot and still have a shot at winning the division. This is with no impending free agents this year other than Kratz, Miley and potentially Moustakas (Mutual option) so everyone is coming back for 2019. Then for 2020, only Chacin and Jennings among the 2018 contributors aren't coming back. Plenty of players who recently made it to MLB (Hader, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff) or look likely to do so soon (Dubon, Nottingham, Ray, Hiura etc).

 

Noone can predict the future, but MLB baseball is largely a cyclical affair, and everything points to the Brewers still being on the upswing of that. 13 games over .500 in mid-August, would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, and more likely to improve than regress going forward? Yeah, I'll say we're on schedule.

 

 

Well 13 games over .500 is good. But when you consider they have played under .500 ball for the last 65 games or so...its not that great.

 

My worry is about all the players on this team who have regressed from last year or from the first half. Usually once you start to regress, it happens faster and faster, what will some of these players look like next year, if we have them.

 

We will have to add additional players, to "be on schedule" and I'm not talking about just from the farm.

 

 

My tone, if you can call it that..since you are basing it on written words, is base off of the past futility. Can you blame me?

 

I would love to be a optimistic brewers fan. I am just worried about having to rebuild the rebuild.

 

I love our owner, I'm not as high on Stearns as some. I like some if the moves, but they have to transition into sucess can't just have nice personal seasons. Oh and CC, well I think he is about as good a manager as he was a power hitter, Take that for what it's worth.

 

 

Interesting reply, thanks

[liveforoctober]

"Usually once you start to regress, it happens faster and faster"

 

This is an opinion, not a supportable fact really beyond anecdotal evidence, especially considering some of the players you are likely referring to are Santana, Arcia, etc who are young kids still learning how to play the game. If you are talking about Pina, sure. Talent eventually declines with age. But if you are worried about young players who show promise, none of us can predict how they will play moving forward.

 

My assumption, based off your first two posts in this thread, is that you are worried about Santana, Arcia, etc and whether they can contribute to the Brewers moving forward. That opinion is warranted based on this season. Another fan might consider them obvious assets based on potential and learning curve and be fully expectant they will be big pieces next year and beyond. Also a valid opinion based on prior evidence.

 

This isn't a baseball question you are asking, it is an outlook on life question.

[obobo55new]

My personal take on this really depends on pitching. Considering the loss of Nelson, this year was going to be a struggle without finding another true bulldog to lead the staff. I didn't think any of the available options in FA were worth pursuing. I did have some hope that they could make a trade to bring in someone using Santana as the chip. You have to find a willing partner and I am sure Stearns tried but couldn't make it work. They did get Chacin and it appears that Miley might have been another good acquisition.

 

Going forward, a lot depends on how Anderson and Nelson figure in. Do they go with Burnes and Peralta? What about Hader as a starter? Once they figure those internal possibilities out, do they need to look outside via trade or a FA this off-season? I do like where they stand for the most part with their regulars. C could use an upgrade and SS is somewhat troubling if Arcia doesn't progress. Bullpen is always something that changes yearly and you must continue to find guys.

 

I like that they have several good minor league guys pushing their way onto the roster. Ray looks promising and Huira sure can hit. Need at least one of these pitchers to become a reliable #2 starter type and either Nelson or Anderson to regain last year's form and you really have something.

 

What I have trouble with is those that want the team to make a big trade to "go for it". Doing so this year or last probably kills the progress and yields very little. Patience is needed and is hard to have. Injuries can completely derail any plan and the one to Nelson was brutal. Hope for the best and stay patient!

[Brewever]

"Usually once you start to regress, it happens faster and faster"

 

This is an opinion, not a supportable fact really beyond anecdotal evidence, especially considering some of the players you are likely referring to are Santana, Arcia, etc who are young kids still learning how to play the game. If you are talking about Pina, sure. Talent eventually declines with age. But if you are worried about young players who show promise, none of us can predict how they will play moving forward.

 

My assumption, based off your first two posts in this thread, is that you are worried about Santana, Arcia, etc and whether they can contribute to the Brewers moving forward. That opinion is warranted based on this season. Another fan might consider them obvious assets based on potential and learning curve and be fully expectant they will be big pieces next year and beyond. Also a valid opinion based on prior evidence.

 

This isn't a baseball question you are asking, it is an outlook on life question.

 

Well yes an opinion, i think a valid one though.

 

I would also add Chase Anderson to the list of regressed players Davies too.

 

Interesting angle on the "It's a life question".

[Jopal78]

I would say the Brewers really don’t have a long term plan and are sort of like the White Sox circa 2010-2016, they put a decent team together and hope to get hot and lucky.

 

They’re not in a “rebuild” because they’re added payroll in the offseason and traded minor leaguers for established veterans.

 

Outside Hiura and Ray there are no elite prospects in the system. (As an example the Cubs had Baez, Bryant, Schwarber, Contreras, all working their way towards the majors at about the same time). Meaning, the talent level you see on the field now is likely what you can expect going forward unless they add more talent via trade or free agency.

 

Additionally, with an above average product at the major league level they’re going to be drafting somewhere around 20th a spot well after the elite talent in the draft has been chosen.

 

They continue to fail because given their location they absolutely have to be able to develop front line starting pitching. Not only for their own success but like Oakland and Tampa, to trade off before free agency to restock the farm team. The Brewers have been the worst team in the major leagues at developing their own starting pitching for over a generation and across at least four different general managers. Until they get that right they’ll never have a plan and will continue to mirror the Kenny Williams White Sox model

[liveforoctober]

I would say the Brewers really don’t have a long term plan and are sort of like the White Sox circa 2010-2016, they put a decent team together and hope to get hot and lucky.

 

They’re not in a “rebuild” because they’re added payroll in the offseason and traded minor leaguers for established veterans.

 

Outside Hiura and Ray there are no elite prospects in the system. (As an example the Cubs had Baez, Bryant, Schwarber, Contreras, all working their way towards the majors at about the same time). Meaning, the talent level you see on the field now is likely what you can expect going forward unless they add more talent via trade or free agency.

 

Additionally, with an above average product at the major league level they’re going to be drafting somewhere around 20th a spot well after the elite talent in the draft has been chosen.

 

They continue to fail because given their location they absolutely have to be able to develop front line starting pitching. Not only for their own success but like Oakland and Tampa, to trade off before free agency to restock the farm team. The Brewers have been the worst team in the major leagues at developing their own starting pitching for over a generation and across at least four different general managers. Until they get that right they’ll never have a plan and will continue to mirror the Kenny Williams White Sox model

 

*face palm*

[Ennder]

The schedule was mostly set when we traded everyone away and built the farm system. So I'm not going to really worry about missing the playoffs until Hiura is playing full time and two or three of our rotation spots are held down by players from our system instead of filler guys we got on the cheap in free agency. If you had asked me what the 2018 teams record was going to be back in 2015 I would have guessed 90+ losses, so we are way ahead of schedule. That isn't really a good thing unless we make the playoffs though, the worst spot to be in is this in between spot.

[Brewever]

The schedule was mostly set when we traded everyone away and built the farm system. So I'm not going to really worry about missing the playoffs until Hiura is playing full time and two or three of our rotation spots are held down by players from our system instead of filler guys we got on the cheap in free agency. If you had asked me what the 2018 teams record was going to be back in 2015 I would have guessed 90+ losses, so we are way ahead of schedule. That isn't really a good thing unless we make the playoffs though, the worst spot to be in is this in between spot.

 

 

The last sentence is exactly how I feel.

[Brewever]

I would say the Brewers really don’t have a long term plan and are sort of like the White Sox circa 2010-2016, they put a decent team together and hope to get hot and lucky.

 

They’re not in a “rebuild” because they’re added payroll in the offseason and traded minor leaguers for established veterans.

 

Outside Hiura and Ray there are no elite prospects in the system. (As an example the Cubs had Baez, Bryant, Schwarber, Contreras, all working their way towards the majors at about the same time). Meaning, the talent level you see on the field now is likely what you can expect going forward unless they add more talent via trade or free agency.

 

Additionally, with an above average product at the major league level they’re going to be drafting somewhere around 20th a spot well after the elite talent in the draft has been chosen.

 

They continue to fail because given their location they absolutely have to be able to develop front line starting pitching. Not only for their own success but like Oakland and Tampa, to trade off before free agency to restock the farm team. The Brewers have been the worst team in the major leagues at developing their own starting pitching for over a generation and across at least four different general managers. Until they get that right they’ll never have a plan and will continue to mirror the Kenny Williams White Sox model

 

*face palm*

 

 

[Brewever]

I would say the Brewers really don’t have a long term plan and are sort of like the White Sox circa 2010-2016, they put a decent team together and hope to get hot and lucky.

 

They’re not in a “rebuild” because they’re added payroll in the offseason and traded minor leaguers for established veterans.

 

Outside Hiura and Ray there are no elite prospects in the system. (As an example the Cubs had Baez, Bryant, Schwarber, Contreras, all working their way towards the majors at about the same time). Meaning, the talent level you see on the field now is likely what you can expect going forward unless they add more talent via trade or free agency.

 

Additionally, with an above average product at the major league level they’re going to be drafting somewhere around 20th a spot well after the elite talent in the draft has been chosen.

 

They continue to fail because given their location they absolutely have to be able to develop front line starting pitching. Not only for their own success but like Oakland and Tampa, to trade off before free agency to restock the farm team. The Brewers have been the worst team in the major leagues at developing their own starting pitching for over a generation and across at least four different general managers. Until they get that right they’ll never have a plan and will continue to mirror the Kenny Williams White Sox model

 

Is this real?

[dlk9s]

I would say the Brewers really don’t have a long term plan and are sort of like the White Sox circa 2010-2016, they put a decent team together and hope to get hot and lucky.

 

They’re not in a “rebuild” because they’re added payroll in the offseason and traded minor leaguers for established veterans.

 

Outside Hiura and Ray there are no elite prospects in the system. (As an example the Cubs had Baez, Bryant, Schwarber, Contreras, all working their way towards the majors at about the same time). Meaning, the talent level you see on the field now is likely what you can expect going forward unless they add more talent via trade or free agency.

 

Additionally, with an above average product at the major league level they’re going to be drafting somewhere around 20th a spot well after the elite talent in the draft has been chosen.

 

They continue to fail because given their location they absolutely have to be able to develop front line starting pitching. Not only for their own success but like Oakland and Tampa, to trade off before free agency to restock the farm team. The Brewers have been the worst team in the major leagues at developing their own starting pitching for over a generation and across at least four different general managers. Until they get that right they’ll never have a plan and will continue to mirror the Kenny Williams White Sox model

 

[FVBrewerFan]

I've always believed the original "plan" was to be a legitimate World Series contender by 2020 or 2021. The 2017 season created greater expectations and really put them in a tough situation. Continue with the rebuild, or win now.

 

No proof whatsoever, but my gut says Stearns wanted to continue to play the long game, Mark A wanted to win now. And yes, I do think the plan is to have a "good" team every season going forward and hope for a couple guys to have career years, be hot in September, limit the injuries, etc. Then pick up a player or two at the deadline if you think you can compete in the playoffs. If some or all of that doesn't work out, try that again the following year.

 

Honestly, not much more a small market team can do. They can't go out and build a $200MM roster. It's frustrating, but that comes with being a Brewers fan. It's also what will make it even sweeter when the Brewers win the WS.

[benji]

Except to me Cain will not be as good in 2020 and 2021. I think next is a year they might push hard.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MrTPlush]

If they miss the postseason (I think we squeeze in to be honest) they are going to go really hard next year. After two years wetting the bed in the second half they are going to do everything possible to make sure it won't happen again. Honestly if we miss I fully expect major moves next year. Whether that be before the season or in July...I expect big moves.

 

All this "Well we weren't expected to be done rebuilding yet until 2020" is a load of garbage. This team has proven it has elite talent and can win games. 2017 was no fluke and this years team is once again no fluke. That is two postseason contenders in a row. The time is now..in the next few years to make a nice run at some World Series trophies.

 

David Stearns needs to figure out how to put this team over the top. He has made some great moves and done some clever things, but so far it has amounted to nothing...just a borderline playoff contender SO FAR. I know people don't like the "all in" approach, but if we have built a borderline contender and it starts idle as one it might be a good idea before it starts to decline with no real runs.

 

This year isn't over...far from it. This team could get hot and win the division or take a wild card spot. If not 2019 will be a very telling year.

[brewmann04]

Think this offseason will be Big if they don't make the playoffs

[FVBrewerFan]

If they miss the postseason (I think we squeeze in to be honest) they are going to go really hard next year. After two years wetting the bed in the second half they are going to do everything possible to make sure it won't happen again. Honestly if we miss I fully expect major moves next year. Whether that be before the season or in July...I expect big moves.

 

All this "Well we weren't expected to be done rebuilding yet until 2020" is a load of garbage. This team has proven it has elite talent and can win games. 2017 was no fluke and this years team is once again no fluke. That is two postseason contenders in a row. The time is now..in the next few years to make a nice run at some World Series trophies.

 

David Stearns needs to figure out how to put this team over the top. He has made some great moves and done some clever things, but so far it has amounted to nothing...just a borderline playoff contender SO FAR. I know people don't like the "all in" approach, but if we have built a borderline contender and it starts idle as one it might be a good idea before it starts to decline with no real runs.

 

This year isn't over...far from it. This team could get hot and win the division or take a wild card spot. If not 2019 will be a very telling year.

 

A load of garbage? So when Stearns came in you were expecting them to compete in 2017 already? Really?

 

And I don't think many have an issue with the "all in" approach, the question is WHEN? For example, the last two times they made the playoffs they needed one more SP each time. They were so close, but didn't quite go all in.

 

So yea, I'm a prospect hugger. But I have no problem with going all in at the right time. I rather do that than go 85% in as they did the last two trips to the playoffs. In 2008 I doubt it would have mattered, but in 2011 if they had one more quality SP they very well could have won it all.

[MrTPlush]

A load of garbage? So when Stearns came in you were expecting them to compete in 2017 already? Really?

 

And I don't think many have an issue with the "all in" approach, the question is WHEN? For example, the last two times they made the playoffs they needed one more SP each time. They were so close, but didn't quite go all in.

 

It is a load of garbage that we should just keep shrugging our shoulders because we weren't expecting to compete this soon anyway. We are competing and the team is good...time to make it great. Not be happy to not be losing 90+ games like a lot of teams experience for years.

 

I think a good majority (if not well over half) hate the "all in" idea. Because they think that is what ruined 2012-2016...which is wrong because what killed us was drafting like a toddler was calling the shots. At some point we may need to trade even more of the farm and maybe have one of the bottom 5-10 systems in baseball. I am guessing that time comes in 2019 or 2020 to be honest, by trades and then by promotions too. There just comes a time where you will use your system to make your MLB roster better rapidly. Hopefully the downturn can be replenished quickly by drafting correctly.

[Jopal78]

Of course it's real.

 

They should have started a rebuild when they collapsed down the stretch in 2014. Their rebuild started in 2015 when the players proved the 2014 collapse wasn't a fluke. In 2016 they had a top 5 draft pick and lost nearly 90 games. Last season, they got career years out of Jimmy Nelson and Chase Anderson and won 86 games. This past winter they jettisoned most of their bullpen from 2017 but for Hader, Jeffress and Knebel. They signed Boone Logan, Matt Albers, JJ Hoover, and Dan Jennings as free agent relievers. They signed free agents Jhoulys Chacin and Wade Miley in an attempt to cover the innings Nelson would have pitched had he not got hurt. They signed Lorenzo Cain (a fantastic player) to a long-term big dollar contract, and they traded for Yelich. The facts are after the 2017 season, they filled a quarter of their 25 man roster with free agent players several of whom are on multi-year deals. Conduct typically not consistent with teams that are rebuilding.

 

So if this is the core of the team they intend to make the playoffs with and win in the playoffs with, it doesn't appear to be good enough. The Cubs are clearly the best team in the NL Central, the Brewers by contrast have a losing record in their division 20-26 which doesn't bode well for September when division games dominate (take out their 7-3 record against the Reds and their record against the non-patsies in their division is really ugly 13-23). Further the team has already called up their top pitching prospects, Burnes, Peralta, Taylor Williams, so there is no pitching help on the way from the farm system (Clearly, for whatever reason, Brandon Woodruff is not among their 7 most preferred starters).

 

The most successful hitting prospects are all at AA or lower. I don't know enough about the Southern League to say it is a pitcher's league or hitter's league. However, Keston Hiura has a .764 OPS at Biloxi and Corey Ray is at .845. For comparison, Javy Baez had a .983 OPS while playing in the Southern League in 2013. Kris Bryant put up a 1.160 OPS in 2014, Wilson Contreras had an .891 and Schwarber had a 1.017 for the Smokies in 2015.

 

Its possible that Hiura and Ray develop into more superior players than Baez, Bryant, Contreras or Schwarber but right now it doesn't look like they are going to be the pieces that push the Brewers past the Cubs into perennial contenders.

 

Of course the Brewers wouldn't be in the Kenny Williams like situation (having committed to being a contender without having the horses to actually get it done) had they not failed to draft and develop their own starting pitching. The facts are over the last 25 years the Brewers have developed only 9 pitchers who have started 100 or more games in the major leagues (with extremely varying levels of success): Cal Eldred, Scott Karl, Steve Sparks, Jeff D'Amico, Ben Sheets, Yovanni Gallardo, Mike Fiers, Wily Peralta and Jimmy Nelson. Doug Melvin had his own Bryant and Rizzo with Fielder and Braun yet during their time as teammates they lost more games than they won because of no quality starting pitching. They emptied out the farm system trading for quality starting pitching, and were only able to ship one of their own starters off for prospects before losing him to free agency (Gallardo). Stearns has some pitchers that could work out, but they are all 2 or more years away when most of their key players now will be 30 or older.

 

Maybe the owner, behind closed doors, demands his front office people put a winner on the field, so they can sell 2.8 million+ tickets. Who knows? But I get the feeling 2018 is another 2nd half collapse as the pitching isn't good enough to hang with the big boys, and the hot start to the year distorted that they were out manned in the rotation from the get go.

[xisxisxis]

I would say the Brewers really don’t have a long term plan and are sort of like the White Sox circa 2010-2016, they put a decent team together and hope to get hot and lucky.

 

They’re not in a “rebuild” because they’re added payroll in the offseason and traded minor leaguers for established veterans.

 

Outside Hiura and Ray there are no elite prospects in the system. (As an example the Cubs had Baez, Bryant, Schwarber, Contreras, all working their way towards the majors at about the same time). Meaning, the talent level you see on the field now is likely what you can expect going forward unless they add more talent via trade or free agency.

 

Additionally, with an above average product at the major league level they’re going to be drafting somewhere around 20th a spot well after the elite talent in the draft has been chosen.

 

They continue to fail because given their location they absolutely have to be able to develop front line starting pitching. Not only for their own success but like Oakland and Tampa, to trade off before free agency to restock the farm team. The Brewers have been the worst team in the major leagues at developing their own starting pitching for over a generation and across at least four different general managers. Until they get that right they’ll never have a plan and will continue to mirror the Kenny Williams White Sox model

 

Exactly. Reality is hard to accept when you're a Brewer fan so the typical reaction is to distort reality to fit the narrative. As Jopal indicates this is nowhere near a rebuild and the approach has a lot of similarities to previous failed attempts at being competitive by using prospects to add mediocre/rental vets (I'lll throw out this "except the Yelich trade" so we don't have the 100 posts saying that this 1 trade proves that the other tens of trades when they traded prospects for mediocre/rental vets is somehow irrelevant)...

 

 

The schedule was mostly set when we traded everyone away and built the farm system.

What universe are you talking about. The Brewers were far from 'trading eveyone' in the last (re)build...

[tmwiese55]

If they don't make it I wouldn't expect something drastic in the offseason. Generally I think their plan is to try and be a contender for a long stretch and hopefully get lucky and get a title at some point, in a way the Cardinals model where you're always a good quality team and then hope to get lucky at the right time. I think they'll look at adding Nelson and Burnes into the rotation as the 'upgrades' needed to help the rotation next year. And also will consider it with Hader. In their head they already addressed the 2B hole next year by getting Schoop with Keston ready the next year. So all they'd have to look at is C.

 

ETA: I know someone else said it earlier but I agree it wasn't the trades that caused the poor team for a few years. It was completely inept drafting/development. 08 they lost Brantley who took several years to develop and would've been blocked here. Greinke they lost Cain of course, but we had Braun/Hart and soon found Gomez to replace Cain anyway. So while he was great, it's not like we weren't very strong in OF. Lost Escobar, who was just blah anyway and was replaced by Segura a year later who was mediocre for us. Odorazi has been a competent SP but by no means anything that would've changed our fortunes. Lawri flopped. That's really it.

[brewmann04]

JUST MAKE THE PLAYOFFS IT SHOULD NOT BE HARD WITH TWO WC WE KNOW MARK WILL SPEND

[adambr2]

You guys are being wayyy too hard on Jopal, he brought up a lot of fair points and some of you just laughed him off like a raving lunatic.

 

I don't know if I agree with the White Sox model comparison, but put together a decent team and hope to get hot and lucky, seems to be at least partially true.

 

"They're not in a rebuild" ...well that's true, is it not? I think the Cain signing and Yelich trade, while still long-term deals, were certainly made with 2018 partially in mind.

 

I would completely agree about Hiura and Ray being the only elite prospects in the system and I would probably say only Hiura. Absolutely no question the Cubs had better and more blue chip prospects in their system when they were in the midst of their rebuild, and they traded a couple more away.

 

Yes, we should be drafting in the low 20s in the near future which does make it more difficult to acquire elite talent in the draft.

 

Their long-term failure to develop front line pitching is what has held them back from taking that next step-- well of course it has. Does anyone honestly disagree with that?

 

I have no idea what Jopal said to elicit the reaction from some people that it did.

[liveforoctober]

I have no idea what Jopal said to elicit the reaction from some people that it did.

 

My head slap was at the assertion that our GM isn't qualified for his position and that Cal Eldred has anything to do with this current roster and its projection.