BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2018 Mid-Season Edition

[MadThinker88]

Brewers are well above 23rd....

 

It will be an interesting offseason as the various sources release their farm rankings.

 

Bleacher Report had the Brewers at 19 post trade deadline. As players (like Freddy P) graduate from the system that ranking will be impacted.

Did anyone see where BA ranked the Brewer system last week?? I don't have insider access so I am unaware of their full update..

[FVBrewerFan]

Joseph probably has it about right at 23. Argument could be made it should be even lower with Peralta graduating and Burnes too by the end of the season. (Not sure how the various sources will handle Burnes.)

[And That]

BA has the Brewers at 22.

[reillymcshane]

Remember, the have not only traded several high ranking prospects, they've had several graduate. And another (Burnes) will graduate by month's end.

 

Woodruff, Peralta, Taylor Williams, Burnes - that represents a big chunk of our upper level arms.

 

Add in the trades - Ortiz, Phillips, Medeiros, Carmona - and you've had a lot of talent leave. That's three top 100 guys (Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta) and a couple of other Top 10 organizational guys (Phillips, Ortiz) and a couple of Top 20 org guys (Carmona, Medeiros).

 

And let's not forget the Yelich deal. We lost some big prospects there.

 

Systems will go through this kind of thing every few years. We happened to graduate a lot of guys of late - and it dings our system. The main thing is to keep adding talent through the draft, which I think we have done. Lutz has the makings of a premiere prospect. And Zack Brown made huge strides this year, similar to jumps we saw from Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta the last couple of seasons. Perhaps someone else - like Braden Webb or Adrian Houser - makes that move next year.

 

I also think that - due to the more even playing ground teams have in this area - we'll start seeing more prospects from Latin America. Before, we were so outspent in developing players from Latin America - it was really a joke. But that's evening out, and I think we'll see some of these guys make some noise.

 

The key is hitting on some of our top picks. We can't have multiple years of failure after failure in the draft. That's what killed this club a few years back. We just didn't develop enough good players - and we missed on a lot of our top picks.

[And That]

Have to remember re: the international guys that Stearns has only been around since late 2015, and didn't get his first international signing class until July of 2016. And many of those guys didn't start playing until last year. That's the Pablo Abreu/Francis Florentino/Ernesto Martinez/Antonio Pinero (sort of)/Michele Vassalotti/Jose Alberro/Brayan Salaya (amongst others) group. And the July 2017 class is arguably even better.

 

So you have to be careful in saying "the Brewers have been bad in Latin America for a lot of years now" - the Brewers have been operating quite differently in the international theater under Stearns but it'll take a number of years to bear that out.

[JosephC]

I didn't factor in Burnes impending graduation into the #23 ranking, it included Burnes. Sure, Burnes will soon be off the list, but other teams will have prospects graduate in this timeframe as well.

[molitor fan]

Baseballamerica is not in my top 3 as far as prospect sources go...Longenhagen is way ahead of the crowd.....guessing 16 would be close to his Brewers ranking

[LouisEly]

The lower levels of the minors are definitely barren for pitching

Strongly disagree.

I don't see any on your list until #23 (Ashby), and only 15 of your top 66 are pitchers at A-ball or below with three of those you designated as relief pitchers (Bickford, Beckman, Andrews).

 

Who exactly are they?

[And That]

The lower levels of the minors are definitely barren for pitching

Strongly disagree.

I don't see any on your list until #23 (Ashby), and only 15 of your top 66 are pitchers at A-ball or below with three of those you designated as relief pitchers (Bickford, Beckman, Andrews).

 

Who exactly are they?

Assuming your counting is right, like 23% of Brewers players with OFPs of 40 or higher are literally pitchers in A-ball or below. That’s a substantial subset. Not barren at all.

[MadThinker88]

Baseballamerica is not in my top 3 as far as prospect sources go...Longenhagen is way ahead of the crowd.....guessing 16 would be close to his Brewers ranking

 

I'm not trying to suggest that Baseball America is gospel. I only knew they had released a mid-season update (like Bleacher Report). Thanks to And That for communicating the BA updated ranking of 22. I really like the work done by John Sickels. I don't feel he gets enough credit..

 

Personally I like to gather all the sources and average the results. I have been doing that for the past 4 or 5 off seasons.

Before the start of the 2018 season, the 11 sources I found had the Brewers at 14th overall w/ an average ranking of 14.273. Unfortunately some of those rankings were before the Yelich trade and some were after. The highest ranking given was by the Minor League Analyst Book (#7, before the deal) and the lowest was by Prospect Digest book (#22, released after the deal).

 

Time will tell where the Brewers end up after all the 2018-19 off season sources announce their thoughts...

[Brewer Fever]

Before the start of the 2018 season, the 11 sources I found had the Brewers at 14th overall w/ an average ranking of 14.273. Unfortunately some of those rankings were before the Yelich trade and some were after. The highest ranking given was by the Minor League Analyst Book (#7, before the deal) and the lowest was by Prospect Digest book (#22, released after the deal).

 

Time will tell where the Brewers end up after all the 2018-19 off season sources announce their thoughts...

 

I appreciate you taking the time to compile these and I'd be interested in the average rankings going forward. Please share the composite the next time you do this.

[sveumrules]

FanGraphs updated their sortable prospect board (viewable under the Leaders tab) after the trade deadline. Every prospect with a Future Value of 35+ or greater is listed.

 

I went through each team and summed up the FV of all prospects. For players with a + grade I gave them an extra 2 points.

 

You'll see the results closely align with the total prospects in each system so this quick & dirty methodology is more a measure of overall depth & likely underestimates teams with more premium prospects. Obviously no one would ever trade Vlad Jr (70 FV) for two or even ten 35+ FV guys, as an example.

 

Here's the results....

 

Team (total prospects listed) FV Sum Total

 

01. SDP (50) 2202

02. TBR (49) 2150

03. MIN (45) 1895

04. NYY (39) 1614

05. TOR (37) 1591

06. CLE (38) 1575

07. BAL (38) 1571

08. TEX (37) 1551

09. HOU (37) 1544

10. KCR (37) 1505

11. ATL (34) 1503

12. CIN (35) 1502

13. LAD (35) 1470

14. MIA (34) 1439

15. PHI (34) 1434

16. OAK (32) 1375

17. CHC (33) 1364

18. DET (31) 1359

19. STL (32) 1336

20. CHW (29) 1323

21. MIL (30) 1260

22. SFG (30) 1235

23. NYM (29) 1230

24. PIT (28) 1205

25. ARI (29) 1193

26. COL (30) 1160

27. LAA (26) 1112

28. BOS (25) 1024

29. SEA (22) 889

30. WAS (19) 831

[LouisEly]

Assuming your counting is right, like 23% of Brewers players with OFPs of 40 or higher are literally pitchers in A-ball or below. That’s a substantial subset. Not barren at all.

A-ball and lower (A+, A, Helena, Arizona, DSL) makes up ~75% of all minor league headcount; eliminating the DSL brings it down to ~70%. Pitchers are about half of a team's roster, so if my math is right it should be ~35% of all prospects with OFPs >40 if distributed evenly. Thus the math supports that pitching at the lower levels is light at best from a quantity standpoint; from a quality standpoint, that none are higher than #20 in the poll (Lemons) suggests a lack of quality as well.

[Brewer Fever]

FanGraphs updated their sortable prospect board (viewable under the Leaders tab) after the trade deadline. Every prospect with a Future Value of 35+ or greater is listed.

 

I went through each team and summed up the FV of all prospects. For players with a + grade I gave them an extra 2 points.

 

You'll see the results closely align with the total prospects in each system so this quick & dirty methodology is more a measure of overall depth & likely underestimates teams with more premium prospects. Obviously no one would ever trade Vlad Jr (70 FV) for two or even ten 35+ FV guys, as an example.

 

Here's the results....

 

Team (total prospects listed) FV Sum Total

 

01. SDP (50) 2202

02. TBR (49) 2150

03. MIN (45) 1895

04. NYY (39) 1614

05. TOR (37) 1591

06. CLE (38) 1575

07. BAL (38) 1571

08. TEX (37) 1551

09. HOU (37) 1544

10. KCR (37) 1505

11. ATL (34) 1503

12. CIN (35) 1502

13. LAD (35) 1470

14. MIA (34) 1439

15. PHI (34) 1434

16. OAK (32) 1375

17. CHC (33) 1364

18. DET (31) 1359

19. STL (32) 1336

20. CHW (29) 1323

21. MIL (30) 1260

22. SFG (30) 1235

23. NYM (29) 1230

24. PIT (28) 1205

25. ARI (29) 1193

26. COL (30) 1160

27. LAA (26) 1112

28. BOS (25) 1024

29. SEA (22) 889

30. WAS (19) 831

 

Thank you!

 

A little disheartening to see the Cubs score higher. I've been under the impression that even after thinning our crop this past year that the Brewers were still well ahead of the Cubs. This, much like MadThinker88's composite rankings, will be interesting to follow going forward.

[And That]

Assuming your counting is right, like 23% of Brewers players with OFPs of 40 or higher are literally pitchers in A-ball or below. That’s a substantial subset. Not barren at all.

A-ball and lower (A+, A, Helena, Arizona, DSL) makes up ~75% of all minor league headcount; eliminating the DSL brings it down to ~70%. Pitchers are about half of a team's roster, so if my math is right it should be ~35% of all prospects with OFPs >40 if distributed evenly. Thus the math supports that pitching at the lower levels is light at best from a quantity standpoint; from a quality standpoint, that none are higher than #20 in the poll (Lemons) suggests a lack of quality as well.

In other words, not barren.

 

You’d also expect there to be disproportionately more players higher up in the minor leagues with greater probabilities of being major leaguers. 20/25 OFP players almost by definition couldn’t be in AAA, for instance. Yet there are plenty of them in the lower minors.

 

The Brewers are lacking in current high-end talent, sure, but there are plenty of interesting pitchers with upside in the low minors. They are far from a barren wasteland of talent.

[And That]

FanGraphs updated their sortable prospect board (viewable under the Leaders tab) after the trade deadline. Every prospect with a Future Value of 35+ or greater is listed.

It’s imporant to note than FG’s FV/OFP grades generally skew quite a bit lower in general than other sources. They hand out a lot more 40s and 35s than Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus. When I look at my OFP database, the FanGraphs grade will be the lowest grade about 1-2 to 2/3 of the time.

[And That]

The FanGraphs board lists Jorge Lopez (traded to KC) and Nick Iverson (draft pick that didn't sign) with the Brewers, so maybe take the FG lists for what they're worth.

[clancyphile]

Remember, the have not only traded several high ranking prospects, they've had several graduate. And another (Burnes) will graduate by month's end.

 

Woodruff, Peralta, Taylor Williams, Burnes - that represents a big chunk of our upper level arms.

 

Add in the trades - Ortiz, Phillips, Medeiros, Carmona - and you've had a lot of talent leave. That's three top 100 guys (Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta) and a couple of other Top 10 organizational guys (Phillips, Ortiz) and a couple of Top 20 org guys (Carmona, Medeiros).

 

And let's not forget the Yelich deal. We lost some big prospects there.

 

Systems will go through this kind of thing every few years. We happened to graduate a lot of guys of late - and it dings our system. The main thing is to keep adding talent through the draft, which I think we have done. Lutz has the makings of a premiere prospect. And Zack Brown made huge strides this year, similar to jumps we saw from Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta the last couple of seasons. Perhaps someone else - like Braden Webb or Adrian Houser - makes that move next year.

 

I also think that - due to the more even playing ground teams have in this area - we'll start seeing more prospects from Latin America. Before, we were so outspent in developing players from Latin America - it was really a joke. But that's evening out, and I think we'll see some of these guys make some noise.

 

The key is hitting on some of our top picks. We can't have multiple years of failure after failure in the draft. That's what killed this club a few years back. We just didn't develop enough good players - and we missed on a lot of our top picks.

 

The key, of course, is to put as much resources into scouting as possible so that the Crew hits far more often than they miss.

 

I feel confident about some of the system in recent years, especially looking at the last four drafts prior to this one.

2014: Meideros brought Soria, Harrison and Yamamoto helped bring Yelich. Gatewood was putting it together until his injury, Sneed brought Villar who helped bring Schoop. Woodruff has been a top rotation prospect for the Crew, and Troy Stokes has become a very good OF prospect who I think could be great.

 

2015: Grisham, Orimoloye, and Kirby are all in a wait-and-see mode right now. Drake Owenby looked good, I thought, but he's dropped off the face of the earth this year. A real Suter-esque steal could be Quintin Torres-Costa - a 35th round pick who looks like a solid bullpen arm.

 

2016: Corbin Burnes has been a big contributor this season. Ray and Erceg both look very solid. Zack Brown has exploded on the scene, Braden Webb looks intriguing, Gabriel Garcia has flashed very interesting stuff. So has Weston Wilson. Cooper Hummel is moving up my list as a catcher. Payton Henry and Chad McClanahan also look to be very interesting as well. Cameron Roegner may be the real surprise of this draft.

 

2017: Hiura, Lutz, and KJ Harrison all look good, and Dallas Carroll quietly has emerged as a walks and doubles type of hitter. Je'Von Ward looks very exciting, and Cody Beckman could be another Hader.

 

And in 2018, I think both Bello and Turang are looking very good as OBP/speed guys. I LOVE David Fry and Ashby.

[reillymcshane]

Corbin Burnes has graduated from prospect status by serving more than 45 days on the major league roster.

 

Burnes was our #2 prospect the last three polls.

[clancyphile]

Brown, Webb, and Roegner are in the same year as him... all looking like very good rotation prospects.

[Jenkins5]

Brown, Webb, and Roegner are in the same year as him... all looking like very good rotation prospects.

 

Webb has the highest ceiling out of the 3 I think if he can figure out command on regular basis. Feel Brown is the safest bet to help rotation. Similar makeup has Burnes in that he commands stuff well, attacks hitters, has multiple pitches he can throw in any count. I don’t know what Brewers did with guys like Woodruff & Brown who had great arms but zero command in college.... because they really turned them around

[MadThinker88]

Don't know if anyone noticed the update over at rotographs/ fangraphs so I wanted to bring it some attention.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/milwaukee-brewers-top-10-prospects-updated/

 

its lists a top 10 & 3 just missing. Enjoy.

[Lathund]

Don't know if anyone noticed the update over at rotographs/ fangraphs so I wanted to bring it some attention.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/milwaukee-brewers-top-10-prospects-updated/

 

its lists a top 10 & 3 just missing. Enjoy.

 

Worth noting though that it's not made by their prospect writers. Their most recent work can be found on THE BOARD. I'd expect that writeups will come at some point after the season.

[sveumrules]

I'd guess their current BOARD rankings may change slightly between now & when the actual team lists comes out after the season, but for now it looks like they are still pretty high on Grisham/Feliciano (#6/#7 vs #18/#21 here) & are maybe not quite jumping on The Zack Brown Bandwagon just yet (#12, 3rd pitcher behind Lemons/Houser vs #6 here & #1 pitcher left on the board).

[JDBrewCrew]

Joe

2:27 Any standouts from Brewers Instructs?

Eric A Longenhagen

2:28 Several. Ashby, Daniel Castillo, Eddy Garcia, Turang, Zhao