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2018-08-03: Rockies (Márquez) at Brewers (Guerra) 7:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 5-3 -- Eric Thames Walk-Off 3-Run HR]


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Wow what a great game with our 7 deep lineup.

Guerra pitched a monster game.

I love this team.

These last 5 games seem like playoff games.

Pennant fever.catch it

.

 

Many here thought they were done after losing 5 to the Pirates before the break. But they are keeping the heat on, and here we are in August neck-and-neck with the Cubs. And this is with a very flawed underachieving offense. If these guys can get things figured out, the starters can continue to do what they've been doing, and the pen continues to be strong, this is a team that can do damage in the playoffs.

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Wow what a great game with our 7 deep lineup.

Guerra pitched a monster game.

I love this team.

These last 5 games seem like playoff games.

Pennant fever.catch it

.

 

Many here thought they were done after losing 5 to the Pirates before the break. But they are keeping the heat on, and here we are in August neck-and-neck with the Cubs. And this is with a very flawed underachieving offense. If these guys can get things figured out, the starters can continue to do what they've been doing, and the pen continues to be strong, this is a team that can do damage in the playoffs.

 

I agree with everything you just said, but that is a lot of "ifs."

 

*nervous laugh*

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS
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Wow what a great game with our 7 deep lineup.

Guerra pitched a monster game.

I love this team.

These last 5 games seem like playoff games.

Pennant fever.catch it

.

 

Many here thought they were done after losing 5 to the Pirates before the break. But they are keeping the heat on, and here we are in August neck-and-neck with the Cubs. And this is with a very flawed underachieving offense. If these guys can get things figured out, the starters can continue to do what they've been doing, and the pen continues to be strong, this is a team that can do damage in the playoffs.

 

I agree with everything you just said, but that is a lot of "ifs."

 

*nervous laugh*

 

I look at it this way. A lot of us have felt they did a lot with smoke and mirrors in the first half. But the wins have kept on coming, so at some point maybe we need to realize that it isn't smoke and mirrors, and we might actually have a legit contender on our hands. Of course, they team has created a false sense of security in me before, and crushed those hopes, so there's always going to be a sense of trepidation.

 

But if you would have told me back in April that this team would be sitting at 15 above .500 and 1 game out of 1st on Aug. 3, I'm not sure I would have believed it. I thought they were a playoff contender, but I figured it would be to sneak into that 2nd wild card. This has been terrific.

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Many here thought they were done after losing 5 to the Pirates before the break. But they are keeping the heat on, and here we are in August neck-and-neck with the Cubs. And this is with a very flawed underachieving offense. If these guys can get things figured out, the starters can continue to do what they've been doing, and the pen continues to be strong, this is a team that can do damage in the playoffs.

 

I agree with everything you just said, but that is a lot of "ifs."

 

*nervous laugh*

 

I look at it this way. A lot of us have felt they did a lot with smoke and mirrors in the first half. But the wins have kept on coming, so at some point maybe we need to realize that it isn't smoke and mirrors, and we might actually have a legit contender on our hands. Of course, they team has created a false sense of security in me before, and crushed those hopes, so there's always going to be a sense of trepidation.

 

But if you would have told me back in April that this team would be sitting at 15 above .500 and 1 game out of 1st on Aug. 3, I'm not sure I would have believed it. I thought they were a playoff contender, but I figured it would be to sneak into that 2nd wild card. This has been terrific.

 

 

I totally agree, which is why I get a kick out of it whenever somebody complains when Counsel/Stearns do something unconventional. Perhaps they are just getting lucky...perhaps not.

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8 walk-off wins this season is nice.

One of the biggest changes from 2017 when the Brewers barely got any late comeback wins.

 

Last year, the Brewers were 5-56 when trailing to start Inning 7; 1-54 when trailing to start Inning 8. They had 4 walk-off wins and 9 walk-off losses. They also had 35 total comeback wins of any sort.

 

This year so far, the team is 10-36 when trailing to start Inning 7; 5-42 when trailing to start Inning 8. They currently have 8 walk-off wins and 6 walk-off losses. They also have 30 total comeback wins.

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Many here thought they were done after losing 5 to the Pirates before the break. But they are keeping the heat on, and here we are in August neck-and-neck with the Cubs. And this is with a very flawed underachieving offense. If these guys can get things figured out, the starters can continue to do what they've been doing, and the pen continues to be strong, this is a team that can do damage in the playoffs.

 

I agree with everything you just said, but that is a lot of "ifs."

 

*nervous laugh*

 

I look at it this way. A lot of us have felt they did a lot with smoke and mirrors in the first half. But the wins have kept on coming, so at some point maybe we need to realize that it isn't smoke and mirrors, and we might actually have a legit contender on our hands. Of course, they team has created a false sense of security in me before, and crushed those hopes, so there's always going to be a sense of trepidation.

 

But if you would have told me back in April that this team would be sitting at 15 above .500 and 1 game out of 1st on Aug. 3, I'm not sure I would have believed it. I thought they were a playoff contender, but I figured it would be to sneak into that 2nd wild card. This has been terrific.

 

 

I totally agree, which is why I get a kick out of it whenever somebody complains when Counsel/Stearns do something unconventional. Perhaps they are just getting lucky...perhaps not.

 

At the risk of sounding like the crier of doom, the wins haven’t exactly kept coming from the Brewers hot start. At the end of May they were 36-21 with a 4.5 game lead in the division and the best record in the NL by 2 games. Since then they have played just .500 ball, the 10th best record in the NL since that date, and have lost between 2 and 8 games in the standings to the other primary playoff contenders. So there are now 3 teams within 2 games of them in the fight for the 2 wild card spots. If they want to claim one of those spots they are probably going to have to pick up the recent pace not just mark time. I usually start with the expectation that it will take 90 wins to reach the playoffs and it’s looking like that will be the case again this year.

 

The big questions that were there at the beginning of the season still remain. Will the starting pitchers be able to keep the team in enough games as they struggle to score runs consistently without wearing down the bullpen that has been the biggest part of the team’s success? The bullpen has inevitably cooled a little from its near perfect start and I don’t think it’s realistic to expect a repeat of the April-May performance. So, as others have said, to me the biggest key is going to be whether the offense can start scoring more runs so that they don’t have to rely on perfect outings from 3 or 4 relief pitchers to scrape out wins.

Note: If I raise something as a POSSIBILITY that does not mean that I EXPECT it to happen.
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At the risk of sounding like the crier of doom, the wins haven’t exactly kept coming from the Brewers hot start. At the end of May they were 36-21 with a 4.5 game lead in the division and the best record in the NL by 2 games. Since then they have played just .500 ball, the 10th best record in the NL since that date, and have lost between 2 and 8 games in the standings to the other primary playoff contenders. So there are now 3 teams within 2 games of them in the fight for the 2 wild card spots. If they want to claim one of those spots they are probably going to have to pick up the recent pace not just mark time. I usually start with the expectation that it will take 90 wins to reach the playoffs and it’s looking like that will be the case again this year.

 

This is kind of a slippery slope though. Anyway you try to define the team that stretch where they went 0-7 is going to taint the data. Before that stretch they were 55-37. After that stretch they are 9-5. If they had gone a more reasonable 3-4 during that stretch we would still be in first place, they just laid an egg for a week.

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At the risk of sounding like the crier of doom, the wins haven’t exactly kept coming from the Brewers hot start. At the end of May they were 36-21 with a 4.5 game lead in the division and the best record in the NL by 2 games. Since then they have played just .500 ball, the 10th best record in the NL since that date, and have lost between 2 and 8 games in the standings to the other primary playoff contenders. So there are now 3 teams within 2 games of them in the fight for the 2 wild card spots. If they want to claim one of those spots they are probably going to have to pick up the recent pace not just mark time. I usually start with the expectation that it will take 90 wins to reach the playoffs and it’s looking like that will be the case again this year.

 

This is kind of a slippery slope though. Anyway you try to define the team that stretch where they went 0-7 is going to taint the data. Before that stretch they were 55-37. After that stretch they are 9-5. If they had gone a more reasonable 3-4 during that stretch we would still be in first place, they just laid an egg for a week.

 

It is true that if you discount the losses the record will be better. And, if you discount the wins the record will be worse. This is taking the good and the bad from two periods of two months each, and the Brewers were 15 games over .500 in the first period and .500 in the more recent one. The first part of the season included a lot of games against teams that were, at the time, struggling mightily (Reds, Marlins, Padres, Royals) and the Brewers, to their credit, took full advantage of that. But they also got slapped around by the Cubs.

 

My overall point is that if the Brewers play just .500 ball the rest of the way and finish with something like 88 or 89 wins, there’s a good chance that they will be on the outside looking in just like last season. Of the teams that are now in the big clump fighting for the playoff spots several of them are likely to play above .500 the rest of the way. The Brewers don’t have that many games left against the really weak teams, especially now that the Reds have stabilized from their awful start. Most of their remaining games are head to head against teams that are in the playoff hunt, including the teams like the Nats and Pirates who are one hot week away from getting right into the thick of things.

Note: If I raise something as a POSSIBILITY that does not mean that I EXPECT it to happen.
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Why trade for a guy like Soria, then use Jennings here? You can't save every good reliever for when you're leading.

 

 

This is my major gripe about Counsell. He saves relievers for situations that may never occur. We were losing a game in SF by one run, and brought in Albers, while keeping Soria, Jeffress, and Hader all in reserve. The Brewers scored later in that game after Albers gave up 3 runs, putting the game out of reach. If you're ONLY going to use those best relievers when you're ahead/tied, you're basically saying you're punting whenever you're down. It's just a restrictive and dumb strategy (IMO of course)

 

This is my major gripe too.

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