Luke Hochevar, Tyler Greene, Alex Gordon

[colbyjack]

I've been warned by several not to tip my hand as to who my favorite for next June is, and while Hochevar isn't my favorite-favorite (that honor goes to Gordon, whom I think is everyone's favorite), I wanted to share some of his numbers & scouting report while tossing his name out as a possibility for our 1st round pick next June.

 

Hochevar is a 6'5", 205 pound righty. He has drawn comparisons to Wake Forest's, and current Detroit Tiger farmhand, Kyle Sleeth for his size, stuff and Colorado connection (Colorado prep pitchers always seem to float under the radar out of HS, which many has attributed to the fact that CO has no major D1 baseball program). He throws in the low-90s, can touch the mid-90s, and has a pretty good slider/slurve. He also throws a good changeup. I had the chance to watch him pitch a few times last year and I was very impressed with his command, control, ability to hit his spots, change speeds and his overall poise on the mound. He not only was a talented pitcher coming out of high school, but he was also a star hitter, and a star basketball player that average 20+ points/game and 10+ rebounds/game that was also adept at blocking shots. I think all of this points to his overall athleticism.

 

On top of his baseball and overall athletic prowess, Hochevar receives high marks for his character and volunteer community work.

 

Now onto the stats...

 

Freshman season, 2003:

4.64 ERA, 21 appearances, 5 starts, 1 CG, 77.2 IP, 87 H, 73 K, 24 BB, .281 BAA, 9 HR

 

Summer of '03, Cape Cod League:

1.10 ERA, 11 G, 16.1 IP, 16 H, 21 K, 3 BB

 

Sophomore season, 2004:

2.86 ERA, 11 appearances, 9 starts, 2 CG, 1 SHO, 63 IP, 52 H, 60 K, 23 BB, .227 BAA, 7 HR

 

Summer of '04, Team USA:

2.73 ERA, 7 appearances, 4 starts, 33 IP, 29 H, 38 K, 11 BB, .228 BAA, 0 HR

 

Hochevar was used predominantly as a reliever during his freshman season, both with the Volunteers and on the Cape. He pitched well as a freshman before entering conference play, when SEC hitters knocked him around a little bit. He dominated in half a season on the Cape as a closer, and was named the #20 prospect in the league by Baseball America, high praise for a freshman. He started his sophomore season off with a bang, with a CG shutout in which he struck out 10 batters and allowed only 1 hit and one walk. He was hit in the leg by a line drive early in the season that caused him to miss time with a deep bone bruise. He later was hit in the face by a line drive in BP that caused him to miss more time. Hochevar then pitched extremely well for Team USA, winning the Gold medal as Team USA's starting pitcher and leading the team in innings pitched.

 

His name hasn't been tossed around much around these parts, and while he's not the next Mark Prior (no one is), look for him to have a very good junior season. More and more college games are being aired on TV in the past couple of years, so try to catch Hochevar and the Vols' next spring.

[molitor fan]

After looking through the All-American list on BA, a couple of guys that I would like your opinion on are Owings and Tyler Greene....where do they fall in the first 50 picks?

[colbyjack]

Just so everyone knows, BA's college preview is heating up. Today they had a chat with Will Kimmey:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...106wk.html

 

And here's the pre-season All-American list that molitor fan brought up:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...preaa.html

 

As for Owings, there have been quite a few comments about him over the last few years. He was a well-known prospect coming out of high school, as the Rockies drafted him in the 2nd round. He was draft eligible this past year as a sophomore, and has transferred to Tulane for his junior season.

 

Owings is somewhat disappointing. Coming out of HS I saw one person compare him to Austin Kearns for his 2-way ability. He is a true power/power prospect, with outstanding power potential at the plate and a very good arm on the mound. However, he isn't really refined either way, as he has struck out a ton as a hitter, despite putting up good power numbers, and has been knocked around as a pitcher. Georgia Tech has been disappointing all around the past couple of seasons, so transferring to Tulane might be a fresh breath of air for Owings. I've liked him better as a hitter all along given his power potential, but he really needs to cut down on the strikeouts. He is a very good athlete, with a very good frame at 6'5" at 220 or so. He likely would end up in RF if drafted as a positional prospect.

 

On the mound he is a sinker/slider type, again, with a good frame. This year is huge for Owings, who turned down a 7-figure bonus from the Rockies a few years ago. The past couple of years he has been living more off of his reputation than his actual production. It's hard to project where he will fall, but at this point in time I have him rated within my top 30, although he likely will be bumped out of the top 30 by some players I have rising.

 

Tulane is possibly my favorite team to follow, so I will be watching Owings closely this spring.

 

Tyler Greene is another one of my faves for next June. Again, if you dig a little bit down within the draft forum you'll probably find some of my comments on him. He, like Owings, was drafted in the 2nd round coming out of HS (Braves). He turned down a very generous high 6-figure offer to attend Georgia Tech. Coming out of HS his bat wasn't nearly as polished as his other tools, but scouts raved about his overall athleticism, speed and defensive ability. Since he's been at college he's bulked up and has shown that his bat is legit. He hit well with Team USA after his freshman year and on the Cape last summer, so hitting with a wood bat shouldn't be an issue. What I really like about him is that he seems to be a pretty conservative pick, not that his ceiling is low. He can hit, hit for some power, run, play defense, has a good arm, and is praised for his makeup. If he continues to hit, he's a top 10 pick, and is on my short-list for the Brewers first-round pick with Hochevar, Justin Bristow and Zach Putnam (Upton, Maybin & Gordon will all be off the board). Greene also wears #5, which is the same number Nomar Garciappara wore (and still wears) at GT, and Greene may project to be a similar type of player.

[colbyjack]

A nice feature on Hochevar over at BA:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...hevar.html

[colbyjack]

Today BA's college coverage moves to the West, with a feature on Jeff Clement:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...ement.html

 

If his defense legitimately has improved (I'm not taking his coaches' word on that), he's a legitimate candidate for the Brewers first-round pick.

 

Some comments from the college coverage regarding past Brewer draft picks:

 

Stephen Kahn (Loyola Marymount) was voted the preseason pitcher of the year in the West Coast Conference and #1 draft prospect. He also was given the nod for the best fastball in the conference.

 

Even though he wasn't drafted by the Brewers, Waukesha native Tyler Beranek (UNLV) was rated the top newcomer in the Mountain West Conference.

 

Ronnie Prettyman (Cal State Fullterton) was named the Big West all-conference preseason 3B, the conference's best defensive 3B and #7 draft prospect.

 

Brian Hernandez (Vanderbilt) was named the SEC's #5 newcomer (transferred from Duke).

 

Sean Morgan (Tulane) was named the preseason freshman of the year and #4 newcomer in Conference USA.

 

Taylor Meier (Central Florida) was one of three pitchers named to the Atlantic Sun all-conference team, and was also named the #4 '06 draft prospect.

 

Like Beranek, Minnesota RHP Dusty Brabender wasn't drafted by the Brewers, but as a native of Oregon, WI, he was named the #3 newcomer in the Big Ten.

 

Ryan Zink was named the Horizon League's preseason all-conference team and overall conference player of the year. Here's what BA had to say about him:

 

The Flames are favored to win again as they return sophomore RHP Ryan Zink (9-3, 2.07) and all-league 2B Bryan Russo (.330-5-26). Zink, who walked 15 and struck out 92 in 96 innings with a fastball that touches 93 mph, is the conference's best prospect but won't be eligible for the draft until 2006.

 

Comments on others:

 

[i[Former USC closer Jack Krawczyk, who holds the NCAA single season (23, in 1998) and career saves (49, from 1995-98) records, has become an assistant at Arizona State. He?s a Tempe native.[/i]

 

UCLA is counting on a big season from OF Jarrad Page, an honorable mention all-Pac-10 strong safety in the fall. Page, a fifth-round pick by the Brewers in the 2002 draft, hit .233-3-19 with six stolen bases for the Bruins last spring.

 

Mississippi State welcomes back senior OF Jon Mungle (.333-0-2), who missed all but six games of the 2004 season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee. Mungle, who was drafted by the Brewers in the 44th round, joins a talent-laden outfield that includes Corley (.380-19-55), an All-America candidate, and Joseph Hunter (.311-3-39).

 

And a little bit on Cap'n Lou's "little" brother:

 

Stetson returns every significant player except C/DH Chris Westervelt (.385-11-56) and 1B Bryan Zenchyk (.368-7-47), both four-year starters. The Hatters are counting on freshman David Golliner and sophomore DH Jon Still (.343-2-38) to step in for Westervelt, the conference player of the year, and Nick Palmisano, a transfer from Broward CC and a 33rd-round pick of the Pirates in last year's draft, to replace Zenchyk. Palmisano's brother Lou is a top catching prospect in the Milwaukee Brewers system.

 

'lil Palmso was also rated the #2 newcomer in the Atlantic Sun Conference.

[colbyjack]

A nice feature on everyone's favorite '05 prospect, Alex Gordon:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...ordon.html

 

http://ftp.baseballamerica.com/images2004/agordon425325-1.jpg

 

From yesterday, BA's feature of Georgia Tech SS Tyler Greene:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/college/050112greene.html

[lend d money]

Colby, is there any likelihood that if Gordon was picked before us that we would select Greene with the intention of making him a 3B? Based on the BA article, he has experience there, but seemingly prefers shortstop.

[colbyjack]

I doubt anyone would draft Greene and immediately move him to 3B to address a need. He has the skills to stay at SS for a while, basically until he proves that he can't play there, which may not happen until a few years into his MLB career, if he makes it that far of course.

 

While we have an obvious need for a 3B from top to bottom in our system, when a player is a few years away from making it to the big leagues I don't see any point moving him away from a more demanding defensive position assuming he has the skills to stay there. The idea upon selecting him may be that he is indeed our 3B of the future, but since so many things can and will happen, there is no reason to move a player like that so soon.

 

And Gordon will be picked before the Brewers make their selection. Bank on it. I think the guys profiled by BA before Gordon (Hochevar, Clement & Greene) all make a heck of a lot of sense for the Brewers.

[colbyjack]

You might want to familiarize yourselves with Craig Hansen, a RHP from St. John's, now. He has the perfect pitcher's build at 6'5", 190, throws in the mid-90s with a mid-80s slider, and was named the #3 prospect on the Cape last summer after striking out 44 batters in 22.1 IP while allowing only 2 BB & 9 H and he didn't give up a single ER. He has been used predominantly as a closer, but he has been working on a 3rd pitch, a changeup, to round out his repertoire to possibly be considered a starter. With his size & stuff he seems to be a lock to be a first rounder, and could vault up to the top 5-10 picks if he does indeed develop his changeup. He is featured by BA today in their regional previews:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...ansen.html

[Verlander]

Who are some of the pitchers in the 2005 draft with the best fastballs?

[colbyjack]

From college...

 

Georgia Tech's RHP Jason Neighborgall easily has the best fastball of '05 draft eligible players. He has been discussed quite a bit since he was a junior in HS, and has reached triple digits, including a radar reading of 102 from a few different reports, on several occasions. He also has a very good curveball, but he has a very difficult time locating the strike zone. He walks a ton of batters, hits a lot of batters, and throws a lot of wild pitches. That wildness has prevented him from garnering him much playing time while at GT.

 

Mark McCormick, a RHP at Baylor and another known commodity since HS, has similar stuff to Neighborgall, although not quite as dominant. Both McCormick and Neighborgall are Boras advisees, which is a big reason they attended college given their big bonus aspirations coming out of HS. McCormick also has some character issues.

 

Returning senior Wade Townsend also has one of the better fastballs from the college crop, although he won't pitch for Rice, plus his velocity took a dip last spring. When he's on he can pitch in the mid to high-90s.

 

Craig Hansen as profiled above throws in the mid-90s, but scouts really haven't seen him as a starter, so his work has been in short stints.

 

Mike Pelfrey from Witchita State, Luke Hochevar from Tennessee and Stephen Kahn from Loyola Marymount also have very good fastballs. All 3 of these guys probably top out in the 95 range, and work better in the 90-93 area, but they also are more refined & polished pitchers than the 3 pitchers listed above.

 

From high school...

 

Arizona RHP Brett Jacobson probably has the most consistent low to mid-90s fastball so far of any prep pitcher. He has a great frame at 6'6", 190 or so, so there's plenty of room for him to get better and add more velocity. He was throwing in the 93-95 range all winter at various showcases and tournaments, so we might even see some higher readings as the spring progresses.

 

Josh Wall did himself a favor at a showcase last weekend in Ft. Myers by pitching consistently in the 91-93 range, and touching 95. A converted SS out of LA, you're going to hear a lot more about Wall throughout the spring. Another good-sized, athletic pitcher with a good curveball.

 

Matthew Olson doesn't get mentioned much, but he is another member of the talented prep crop from Virginia. Again, good size, athleticism, etc., and throws regularly in the low-90s.

 

Zach Putnam is a shorter, stockier pitcher from Michigan that has been clocked as high as 94. His fastball has great, late movement on it, so the movement gets bonus points even if he isn't a raw fire-baller.

 

California prep righty Jeff Lyman is similar to Putnam in size & stature. He has a great, old-school roundhouse delivery, and is clocked regularly in the 89-93 range. Like Putnam, he relies more on movement & location than pure velocity.

 

Brandon Erbe is another projectable, athletic pitcher that is consistently clocked in the low-90s.

 

Jeremy Hellickson and Buster Posey are two shorter (6'0" range) and smaller framed pitchers who have whip-like arms. The ball explodes out of both of their right hands, and they both have very good movement and breaking pitches to complement their fastballs. I've compared Hellickson to Roy Oswalt in the past.

 

Bradley Clark, Chris Volstad, Josh Zeid, Eric Massingham & Shane Funk can all throw in the low-90s, and all have very good frames. Clark is the best pitching prospect of this group, as he has an amazing, true curveball that he throws in the low-80s. As I note in his draft profile, not too many pitchers outside of Ben Sheets throw a true curveball in the low-80s. Volstad has good movement, and is towering at 6'7". Massingham & Funk are more on the big & blocky side, so they're not the most projectable of pitchers.

 

Not too much for lefties this year in regards to pure velocity. Next year Andrew Miller from UNC could be in the running for the first overall pick. Cesar Ramos & Ricky Romero highlight the college arms this year, but neither throws higher than the low-90s. Both of them do have very good breaking balls and good control.

 

David Duncan and Travis Wood probably highlight the prep power lefties. Duncan is a giant at 6'7" or so, but doesn't throw harder than the high-80s at this point in time, but obviously there's a lot more room for him to improve. Wood on the other hand is closer to 6', but the fastball explodes out of his hand similar to his right-handed prep counterpart in Jeremy Hellickson.

[Verlander]

Thanks for that very thorough answer Colby. Do you think neighborgall can sneak into the top 10 if he shows even slight improvement in his command? Boras factor not withstanding~

[colbyjack]

Do you think neighborgall can sneak into the top 10 if he shows even slight improvement in his command? Boras factor not withstanding~

 

I guess what's your definition of slight improvement? Is that going from where he is now to where someone like your namesake Justin Verlander was last spring? If so, absolutely. Neighborgall's stuff is just as good as Verlander's, if not a hair better. But, Neighborgall's control was much worse. As you note, the Boras factor likely will cause him to fall much further than the top 10, even if his control does improve somewhat. The only way he's a legit top 10 in my mind is if he really puts control issues behind him. He doesn't have to be perfect, but he really needs to cut down on the BBs, HBPs & WPs.

 

BTW, I forgot to mean prep righty Sean O'Sullivan above. He may command his fastball better than any other prep pitcher. He throws consistently in the 88-91 range, and has one of the better true curveballs in the prep class. He also is an extremely talented hitter, so he may not even get the chance to show his stuff on the mound as a pro.

[colbyjack]

Some players with Brewers/Wisconsin ties that have been listed in the top freshmen, sophomore, junior & senior college lists by BA:

 

Sean Morgan: #8 freshman

Tyler Beranek: #49 freshman

Ronnie Prettyman: #10 senior

Jon Mungle: #29 senior