Now thoughts on the waiver trade deadline

[TooLiveBrew]

I admit I haven't done any recent looking into Shields, but I have very little interest in adding a 4.68 FIP

 

For what is worth: Jon Lester FIP 4.66, Jose Quintana FIP 4.69, Robbie Ray 4.72, Julio Tehran 5.33. Pitchers can still succeed with a FIP at that level. Shields primarily is protection for the bullpen when the other starters leave after 4 2/3.

Quintana 4.26 ERA

Ray 5.05 ERA

Teheran 4.46 ERA

 

You can be lucky beyond your FIP, but I don't want those FIPs or those earned run results. Just because Lester has outperformed a bad FIP doesn't mean it's wise to ignore FIP (it's not the be-all end-all, either though). None of those guys above are either succeeding or look like improvements to our rotation.

[adambr2]

Letting a player simply leave for free is rare, but it does happen because it's an opportunity to get out of their contract with that player free and clear and pass it on.

 

When we had Cesar Izturis and he was claimed we simply let him go. Alex Rios was one of the highest paid guys to change hands this way.

[bill hAll Star]

This is your weekly reminder that the only reason Shields "can go 7" is because the White Sox don't care and are tanking.

 

Every pitcher have save for maybe Peralta can throw 110-120 pitches and go 7-8 innings if we want them to...but they don't because that is our strategy.

 

If Shields did come to Milwaukee, unless we get a 6-0 lead, he's probably coming out after 5 or maybe 6 just like everyone else.

[MillerParkSouth]

Sonny Gray got demoted to the bullpen, wouldn't mind seeing what it would take to get him this month.

[Jopal78]

This is your weekly reminder that the only reason Shields "can go 7" is because the White Sox don't care and are tanking.

 

That's not true. 13 of 24 starts were 'quality starts', and has gone over 105 pitches only four times out of 24. Admittedly, he's had 5 starts where he has allowed more than 4 earned runs, which is more than any of the Brewers current starters. However, the point is, he's not a front of the rotation pitcher but a back end guy to eat up innings, that won't cost anything of significance.

 

As bad as Sonny Gray has been, they won't get him for nothing. Ditto for Matt Harvey

[tmwiese55]

This is your weekly reminder that the only reason Shields "can go 7" is because the White Sox don't care and are tanking.

 

Every pitcher have save for maybe Peralta can throw 110-120 pitches and go 7-8 innings if we want them to...but they don't because that is our strategy.

 

If Shields did come to Milwaukee, unless we get a 6-0 lead, he's probably coming out after 5 or maybe 6 just like everyone else.

 

Along those lines, maybe his stats might look better if he wasn't going out for that extra inning or two. Assuming he he has poor stats in the 6-8 innings that is if someone wanted to look. I might have phrased that poorly but I think you should get what I mean. And I'm not really advocating for Shields, I'd rather just roll with Woodruff. Jsut saying the point you make would also theoretically help his % and ratio related stats.

 

For example, following Rodon he'd probably have a sub 2 ERA if he pitched for the Brewers instead of his idiot manager pushing him every game until he has an inning where he gives up 2 runs late.

[SRB]

The best pitcher in the world (Scherzer) is not making it through waivers no matter how much he's owed.

 

I don't think there are any waiver guys that could really help the Brewers, sadly. Maybe Sonny Gray, though I doubt he would make it to us.

[adambr2]

The best pitcher in the world (Scherzer) is not making it through waivers no matter how much he's owed.

 

I don't think there are any waiver guys that could really help the Brewers, sadly. Maybe Sonny Gray, though I doubt he would make it to us.

 

Bryce Harper cleared waivers last year. Elite players can and do clear revocable waivers in August. They clear for a number of reasons. Sometimes they'll clear because yes, the team cannot afford the contract and they know that they'll simply be pulled back anyway. I'd go as far as to say Scherzer probably clears, just as Verlander did last year.

 

I think people misunderstand how different revocable waivers are from regular waivers and would be shocked at how many players clear. The sheer number of players placed on waivers in August is an enormous list and claims are usually strategic -- either to block a rival contender from a player they might want or from a genuine desire to try to acquire a player. They're not even supposed to leak the names that do and yet we hear about many high profile names yearly.

[tmwiese55]

Kinda shocking Harper cleared, sure you know Nats are just gonna pull back anyway. But there was no long term contract to worry about or anything. which leads to my question, if you put in a claim and the player gets pulled back (like Harper would have) does it negatively affect you in any way for making other claims? I think it goes all by record, but maybe you move down the list or something?

[brewmann04]

I still wonder who was the pitcher that DS targeted?

[adambr2]

Kinda shocking Harper cleared, sure you know Nats are just gonna pull back anyway. But there was no long term contract to worry about or anything. which leads to my question, if you put in a claim and the player gets pulled back (like Harper would have) does it negatively affect you in any way for making other claims? I think it goes all by record, but maybe you move down the list or something?

 

Don't think so. There is a $50K waiver fee but I think that only applies if you actually get the player.

 

In a case of someone like Harper who you know wasn't going anywhere it's just a waste of time and paperwork which I'm sure is part of why they don't bother.

 

Now, that said, I doubt Harper clears this year if the Nationals start falling off because the situation is very different and a NL team would probably genuinely want to see if a trade could be worked out if the Nationals aren't in contention with Harper on an expiring contract anyway.

[NievesNoNO]

What about Russell Martin? $20 million for next season is too much but maybe the Jays eat some salary? Not really much of a hitter these days but is still presumably solid behind the plate and has a decent OBP. It's something that this team hasn't been in position to do lately, but really they are down to trying to make incremental upgrades as opposed to filling holes. For a team that appears to be serious about having some post-season success, he might be a welcome addition.

[bill hAll Star]

What about Russell Martin? $20 million for next season is too much but maybe the Jays eat some salary? Not really much of a hitter these days but is still presumably solid behind the plate and has a decent OBP. It's something that this team hasn't been in position to do lately, but really they are down to trying to make incremental upgrades as opposed to filling holes. For a team that appears to be serious about having some post-season success, he might be a welcome addition.

 

The Blue Jays had better be eating 95% of that for me to think about it. I'm not sure he's any better than Pina at this point.

[Warning Track Power]

What about Salvador Perez and becoming Royals North?

 

Only 28 and 3 years $39.6 million remaining on his deal after this season. If the Royals were to throw in say $15 million, would Perez at ~$8 million annually be worth the Brewers investing in? He doesn't walk but brings some pop to the position where Pina has been a black hole in 2018.

[trwi7]

The Royals are going to want way too much for Perez for the player he is. That would give us 3 position players with career OBPs under .300 and the pitcher. I don't care how much power you have. When you have that many guys making that many outs, it's almost impossible to put together an average offense.

[KeithStone53151]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/august-trade-targets-to-fight-the-post-deadline-blues/

 

An article I found with some decent ideas on targets, the pitching targets apply to us the most...but really none of them are the type of guy we should look at unless we have injury issues over the next 2-3 weeks.

[SRB]

The best pitcher in the world (Scherzer) is not making it through waivers no matter how much he's owed.

 

I don't think there are any waiver guys that could really help the Brewers, sadly. Maybe Sonny Gray, though I doubt he would make it to us.

 

Bryce Harper cleared waivers last year. Elite players can and do clear revocable waivers in August. They clear for a number of reasons. Sometimes they'll clear because yes, the team cannot afford the contract and they know that they'll simply be pulled back anyway. I'd go as far as to say Scherzer probably clears, just as Verlander did last year.

 

I think people misunderstand how different revocable waivers are from regular waivers and would be shocked at how many players clear. The sheer number of players placed on waivers in August is an enormous list and claims are usually strategic -- either to block a rival contender from a player they might want or from a genuine desire to try to acquire a player. They're not even supposed to leak the names that do and yet we hear about many high profile names yearly.

 

Players like Harper clear waivers every year because they are only on waivers as a formality. You can't sneak a trade for a player like Scherzer through that way, not least because if you are shopping Scherzer you're going to let teams know and not just work out a sweetheart deal with a secret bidder.

 

Verlander cleared because he was still owed a lot of money and was looking fairly mediocre in Detroit. He only reasserted himself as an ace pitcher after the trade.

[adambr2]

The best pitcher in the world (Scherzer) is not making it through waivers no matter how much he's owed.

 

I don't think there are any waiver guys that could really help the Brewers, sadly. Maybe Sonny Gray, though I doubt he would make it to us.

 

Bryce Harper cleared waivers last year. Elite players can and do clear revocable waivers in August. They clear for a number of reasons. Sometimes they'll clear because yes, the team cannot afford the contract and they know that they'll simply be pulled back anyway. I'd go as far as to say Scherzer probably clears, just as Verlander did last year.

 

I think people misunderstand how different revocable waivers are from regular waivers and would be shocked at how many players clear. The sheer number of players placed on waivers in August is an enormous list and claims are usually strategic -- either to block a rival contender from a player they might want or from a genuine desire to try to acquire a player. They're not even supposed to leak the names that do and yet we hear about many high profile names yearly.

 

Players like Harper clear waivers every year because they are only on waivers as a formality. You can't sneak a trade for a player like Scherzer through that way, not least because if you are shopping Scherzer you're going to let teams know and not just work out a sweetheart deal with a secret bidder.

 

Verlander cleared because he was still owed a lot of money and was looking fairly mediocre in Detroit. He only reasserted himself as an ace pitcher after the trade.

 

As good as Scherzer is, nearly 30M a year for the next 3 years, for a 34 year old, plus an additional 15M a year for 7 years after that, is an absolutely crazy commitment that very few teams would be in a good position to just take on.

 

Washington is almost certain to pull him back, but that's an enormous financial risk for any GM to take, and they'll typically err on the side of conservatism rather than risk paying a guy until he's 44.

 

Doubt any GM rolls the dice. It's too risky and probably pointless anyway. Maybe we will find out this month.

[reillymcshane]

Scherzer's contract is weird.

 

He is scheduled to get $105M over the next three years - or $35M annually. But ALL of it is deferred. It is paid out from 2022 to 2028 at $15M a year. It's important to understand this is salary - not bonus money. It's pure salary.

 

But there's more.

 

From 2019-2021, Scherzer gets $15M each year as part of his original signing bonus - which he agreed to in 2015. This is NOT salary. It's a signing bonus. I think the signing bonus would be owed by the original signing team (the Nationals), meaning if he was traded, a team wouldn't owe Scherzer anything from 2019 through 2021 (since salary is all deferred). The team getting Scherzer would then pay all the deferred salary - which again, is $15M annually for seven straight years beginning in 2022. The Nats would pay the $15M bonus money, which is owed from 2019-2021.

 

Does that make sense? Bonus money paid out from 2019-21 is owed by the original signing team (Nationals). Salary earned from 2019-21 is owed by whatever team controls Scherzer - but isn't paid out until 2022-2018 - in $15M installments.

 

I think that's right.

 

The way the contract was structured, it nets Scherzer $15M a year for 14 straight years (although the contract length is only 7 years). The total payout is $210M. It was a pretty sweet deal. The guy's contract takes him through his age 36 season. At that point, he can retire and still rake in $15M a year for seven more years. If he wants to keep playing, he's free to do so, getting paid by the his previous team and his new club.

[reillymcshane]

 

As good as Scherzer is, nearly 30M a year for the next 3 years, for a 34 year old, plus an additional 15M a year for 7 years after that, is an absolutely crazy commitment that very few teams would be in a good position to just take on.

I don't believe this is correct. As noted in my previous post, over the next three years, he's due $35M a year in salary, plus he gets a $15M annually as part of his original signing bonus. However, ALL of the salary ($105M total) is deferred. The only cash he gets the next three years is the $15M bonus money - which he gets each year.

[adambr2]

 

As good as Scherzer is, nearly 30M a year for the next 3 years, for a 34 year old, plus an additional 15M a year for 7 years after that, is an absolutely crazy commitment that very few teams would be in a good position to just take on.

I don't believe this is correct. As noted in my previous post, over the next three years, he's due $35M a year in salary, plus he gets a $15M annually as part of his original signing bonus. However, ALL of the salary ($105M total) is deferred. The only cash he gets the next three years is the $15M bonus money - which he gets each year.

 

Yeah, looking it over here:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/max-scherzer-5166/

 

I think I may have interpreted it wrong. Still, locking yourself into a $15M annual obligation for 7 years for a player who won't even be here is not a risk many GMs are going to be willing to take, if any. That's huge for a deferred amount and not for a short period of time.

[Warning Track Power]

I am fully expecting the Brewers to make a claim on Andrew McCutchen just because this trading season has been so abnormal.

[anglotiger]

 

As good as Scherzer is, nearly 30M a year for the next 3 years, for a 34 year old, plus an additional 15M a year for 7 years after that, is an absolutely crazy commitment that very few teams would be in a good position to just take on.

I don't believe this is correct. As noted in my previous post, over the next three years, he's due $35M a year in salary, plus he gets a $15M annually as part of his original signing bonus. However, ALL of the salary ($105M total) is deferred. The only cash he gets the next three years is the $15M bonus money - which he gets each year.

 

Yeah, looking it over here:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/max-scherzer-5166/

 

I think I may have interpreted it wrong. Still, locking yourself into a $15M annual obligation for 7 years for a player who won't even be here is not a risk many GMs are going to be willing to take, if any. That's huge for a deferred amount and not for a short period of time.

 

What if you could get him to restructure that $105M? If he'd extend by a year in order to get that money sooner, say 4 years at $26.25M per year (or even $27 as an additional incentive to getting the money earlier), wouldn't that be worth taking a chance on?

[JohnBriggs12]

Zimmermann looked really good beating the Cubs last night. The more salary they'd be willing to absorb, the less the Brewers would have to surrender in talent. If the Tigers absorbed $25-30 million of his remaining $50 million, I'd be on board.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Zimmermann looked really good beating the Cubs last night. The more salary they'd be willing to absorb, the less the Brewers would have to surrender in talent. If the Tigers absorbed $25-30 million of his remaining $50 million, I'd be on board.

 

Ditto. Peralta is proving to be a flash in the pan, at least for right now. He either needs to go to the pen or the minors.