Brewers trade for Schoop; give up Luis Ortiz, Jean Carmona, and Jonathan Villar

[sveumrules]

but it would be hard to say it's not justified from a performance standpoint.

 

Schoop is at 163/180/204 so far with Milwaukee in 50 plate appearances.

 

Bryce Harper hit 103/280/179 over 50 plate appearances from June 10 to June 23. Didi Gregorious hit 149/184/213 in 98 plate appearances over the entire month of May.

 

Those are just two I thought of off the top of my head. I'm sure plenty of other established players have had terrible stretches of 50 PAs or more this year & in many seasons passed.

 

50 plate appearances isn't legitimate justification for anything.

[MrTPlush]

10 million essentially buys 1 win at this point.

 

Schoop was worth 0.8 fWAR/1.2 bWWR for Baltimore in a half season prior to the trade.

 

In 2017 he was worth 3.8 fWAR/5.2 bWAR. In 2016 he was at 2.2 fWAR/2.4 bWAR. In 2015 he came in at 1.3 fWAR/1.4 bWAR.

 

It is very unlikely Schoop would be a negative asset with a 10 million salary in 2019.

 

If we sign a player this winter for $10mil and they give us 1 WAR off the bench are you seriously telling me that player was technically worth it? The minors is littered with 0-2 WAR players. You can pay them a few million tops if you want that.

 

I guess I know why we traded Jonathan Villar now...he is a $20mil+ player per year!! Lorenzo Cain? $60mil a year? I just can’t understand WAR valuations for contracts.

 

Cut your losses if he sucks. Paying him $10mil and wasting a roster spot (and playing time) just makes you look even dumber. If they keep him (not my money) you better find a good back-up plan or we better be getting a good hitting catcher. We can not afford three black holes again.

[pacopete4]

Yeah, the WAR to salary thing never really adds up in my opinion. If Schoop doesn’t turn it around, it’s an easy decision to cut him loose and find a different player.

[adambr2]

10 million essentially buys 1 win at this point.

 

Schoop was worth 0.8 fWAR/1.2 bWWR for Baltimore in a half season prior to the trade.

 

In 2017 he was worth 3.8 fWAR/5.2 bWAR. In 2016 he was at 2.2 fWAR/2.4 bWAR. In 2015 he came in at 1.3 fWAR/1.4 bWAR.

 

It is very unlikely Schoop would be a negative asset with a 10 million salary in 2019.

 

Keon Broxton is a 1.5 WAR player this year. If he was arbitration eligible or a free agent, would you offer him a contract at 15 million annually? Of course not, because that would be utter insanity.

 

So many flaws exist with using WAR to justify cost. If we are in the business of paying $10M a year for 1 WAR players we are not going to find much success as a small market team.

[sveumrules]

In 2016 Schoop was projected at 1.8 WAR by ZIPS. In 2017 his ZIPS projection was for 2.1 WAR. His ZIPS projection for this season was 3.0 WAR.

 

I don't think 50 terrible plate appearances will lower his projection for 2019 all the way down to 1 WAR.

 

Of course we can't afford to pay 10 million per win. Odds are Schoop will produce more value than that in 2019, in which case we wouldn't be.

[tmwiese55]

Sure 10 mil is a lot but they can't let him go. Keep in mind Moose is almost assuredly gone next year therefore a lot more PT needed and no other clear 2B option. You're still better off keeping him and hoping for a rebound. Otherwise you're left starting Perez at 2B rather than your jack of all trades backup where he should be and is valuable.

[MrTPlush]

Sure 10 mil is a lot but they can't let him go. Keep in mind Moose is almost assuredly gone next year therefore a lot more PT needed and no other clear 2B option. You're still better off keeping him and hoping for a rebound. Otherwise you're left starting Perez at 2B rather than your jack of all trades backup where he should be and is valuable.

 

It will be the offseason. It is not Schoop or Pérez as the options. We could go another route.

 

For the record I think he ends up tendered if he can look like an MLB hitter before the season ends.

[trwi7]

I don't think 50 terrible plate appearances will lower his projection for 2019 all the way down to 1 WAR.

 

He has an 84 OPS+ in 417 plate appearances this year. This idea that he's only being judged on 50 plate appearances is ridiculous. His numbers for the season point to him being a bad hitter, not just his time with the Brewers. His career numbers show he is at best an average hitter. If you want to gamble at least $10 million that 2017 wasn't a fluke, more power to you. I'd rather just cut our losses and try to find an upgrade someplace else.

[Surhoff5]

I don't think 50 terrible plate appearances will lower his projection for 2019 all the way down to 1 WAR.

 

He has an 84 OPS+ in 417 plate appearances this year. This idea that he's only being judged on 50 plate appearances is ridiculous. His numbers for the season point to him being a bad hitter, not just his time with the Brewers. His career numbers show he is at best an average hitter. If you want to gamble at least $10 million that 2017 wasn't a fluke, more power to you. I'd rather just cut our losses and try to find an upgrade someplace else.

 

Is this kind of like when you wanted to sign Jaime Garcia over Chacin?

[tmwiese55]

Sure 10 mil is a lot but they can't let him go. Keep in mind Moose is almost assuredly gone next year therefore a lot more PT needed and no other clear 2B option. You're still better off keeping him and hoping for a rebound. Otherwise you're left starting Perez at 2B rather than your jack of all trades backup where he should be and is valuable.

 

It will be the offseason. It is not Schoop or Pérez as the options. We could go another route.

 

For the record I think he ends up tendered if he can look like an MLB hitter before the season ends.

 

true, but unless you go 'dumpster diving' so to speak and just try to get lucky on some unknown you're gonna have to spend several million. Probably not 10 mil but likely something significant. Just can't imagine they'd trade that much and then let go so quickly instead of hoping for a rebound.

[timpep]

If they were to cut Schoop loose, you know he'd hit 35 homers and bat 320 somewhere else.

[sveumrules]

I don't think 50 terrible plate appearances will lower his projection for 2019 all the way down to 1 WAR.

 

He has an 84 OPS+ in 417 plate appearances this year. This idea that he's only being judged on 50 plate appearances is ridiculous. His numbers for the season point to him being a bad hitter, not just his time with the Brewers. His career numbers show he is at best an average hitter. If you want to gamble at least $10 million that 2017 wasn't a fluke, more power to you. I'd rather just cut our losses and try to find an upgrade someplace else.

 

From 2015-17 Schoop posted a 111 wRC+ in 1643 plate appearances. I think that is more indicative of his current true talent level than his results from this season when he was coming back from an oblique injury & now is in a new league with inconsistent playing time.

 

His career wRC+ is 97 & ZIPS projects him for a 96 rest of season, down from a 104 preseason projection. A 2B with league average offense is a baseline 2 WAR player before factoring in defense/baserunning. If he's closer to to the 119 wRC+ he posted in 2017 or the 111 he posted from 2015-17 you're looking at a 4-5 WAR season.

 

No player is without downside risk of course. Schoop has never been the most selective hitter & maybe the league has him figured out or he is just completely cooked two months shy of his 27th birthday.

[Ennder]

 

Keon Broxton is a 1.5 WAR player this year. If he was arbitration eligible or a free agent, would you offer him a contract at 15 million annually? Of course not, because that would be utter insanity.

 

So many flaws exist with using WAR to justify cost. If we are in the business of paying $10M a year for 1 WAR players we are not going to find much success as a small market team.

 

A 1 year deal for Broxton at $15 million is a steal for a team. I would not offer him a 3 year deal for $45 but 1 year for $15 is an easy yes if I need an OF.

[trwi7]

I think you would be the only one. $15 million for Broxton is insane even if you have a huge payroll.

[SomewhereInTime]

Nobody anywhere is paying Broxton 15 mil

 

WAR is a good stat for full season numbers, in a small sample size a lot of wacky things happen. Broxton has played great defense this year, but a big part of great defense for an outfielder is opportunity. You need balls to be hit just right so you can make an incredible catch. That's not always going to happen and thats why usually you want multiple years of data to really judge a defender.

[brewcrewdue80]

At this point, his stats are saying he's not worth a raise. He'll be non-tendered. Garnering some steam rolling downhill as current most hated move done by the franchise. Sogard performed better

[MrTPlush]

If we want to use career numbers Jonathan Villar is at a 93 OPS+ and Jonathan Schoop is at 98 OPS+. Could have just kept the cheaper Villar at that rate.

[Lathund]

10 million essentially buys 1 win at this point.

 

Schoop was worth 0.8 fWAR/1.2 bWWR for Baltimore in a half season prior to the trade.

 

In 2017 he was worth 3.8 fWAR/5.2 bWAR. In 2016 he was at 2.2 fWAR/2.4 bWAR. In 2015 he came in at 1.3 fWAR/1.4 bWAR.

 

It is very unlikely Schoop would be a negative asset with a 10 million salary in 2019.

 

If we sign a player this winter for $10mil and they give us 1 WAR off the bench are you seriously telling me that player was technically worth it? The minors is littered with 0-2 WAR players. You can pay them a few million tops if you want that.

 

I guess I know why we traded Jonathan Villar now...he is a $20mil+ player per year!! Lorenzo Cain? $60mil a year? I just can’t understand WAR valuations for contracts.

 

Cut your losses if he sucks. Paying him $10mil and wasting a roster spot (and playing time) just makes you look even dumber. If they keep him (not my money) you better find a good back-up plan or we better be getting a good hitting catcher. We can not afford three black holes again.

 

0 WAR players, as in replacement-level players, are common in the minors indeed. Not littered with, or else teams wouldn't consistently feature below replacement level players every year, but they're common enough. 2 WAR players though? They're nowhere near as common as you think. That's essentially what your average everyday major league starter is. Brewers currently have only 4 position players on pace to reach 2 fWAR (5 going by bWAR, but Keon Broxton is there on the basis of ridiculous DRS in a tiny sample size) this year. There are 2 WAR players in the minors who simply need to be given their chance, but they're not obvious or easy to find, or they would be in the majors.

 

As for $/WAR valuations, they're simple enough. Firstly they're in regards to free agents only. You can't offer a contract to a player under team control by another team anyway, so the cost of acquiring them has to be viewed in a different light. As for where those numbers come from, they're simply the average of what all free agents produced divided by all free agent salaries. For each $10m spent in free agency, you get on average 1 WAR (I don't know the exact number for 2017 or 2018, as it varies a bit over time, but in that neighbourhood). So that includes Chris Davis and Albert Pujols as well as JD Martinez and Max Scherzer.

 

Free agent contracts are ridiculous because of scarcity. Most productive players in their primes are under team control, either through their initial 6 years of control or through an early extension. In a vacuum it's ridiculous to pay Machado $30m or a mediocre journeyman FA $8m to play SS when Lindor is making $600k. But you can't get Lindor without giving up your 6 best prospects (If at all), so you compare it to who else you can get for cash only. If we don't want to rely on Dubon and Hiura at 2B straight away to start 2019 we have to look at what the options are. So think of Schoop as a 1/$10m free agent signing and look at the alternatives. Would the better 2B free agents out there (Like Dozier) sign a 1 year deal? Probably not; to get a proven 2B you'd need to pony up for multiple years (And thus more than $10m) when what we really want is just a bridge to Hiura. Any FA out there is also likely to be older with the ever present risk of regression. Trades are a possibility, and we might very well find a salary dump for less than $10m without giving up significant prospects (Castro?). But we might not.

 

So $10m for Schoop isn't unreasonable, as expensive as it sounds. That is, it should be said, based on the assumption that for a player in his mid 20s it's a lot more reaonable to rely on his career numbers rather than a smaller sample, as they should be more indicative of what to expect going forward. Based on that he's almost exactly league average (97 wRc+) offensively and a bit above average as a defender at 2B. Or, in other words, a ~2 WAR player. So as much as I'm not a fan of the trade, or a fan of the free-swinging types like Schoop. Whatever you might think of him, he's not a .384 OPS player.

[coolhandluke121]

I think it's unfair to say people who hated the trade are over-reacting to a slump. It's more than just a slump; it's the fact that he's a terrible OBP player, as many people said all along. Players like that are going to have major slumps because OBP is what stabilizes your offensive contributions even when the hits aren't falling.

 

Bottom line, there was a very real chance that Schoop would have this type of slump. That means you gave up something of value in hopes of a 2 month upgrade, but you actually gave away prospects for an excessively high risk of a significant downgrade. I don't understand how a team that was so prudent and frugal in realizing they could patch together a rotation that would be just as good, if not better, than many flawed, risky "big name" options out there, could be the same team that would fail realize that they could do the same thing with Villar, Perez, and maybe Saladino at 2B. Just use them judiciously and there's a great chance they're just as good as Schoop.

 

Not to mention Shaw at 2B to make room for Moustakas, who makes more sense against most starting pitchers anyway and who has a much better overall track record than Schoop despite being almost as averse to taking a walk. And they idea that they needed another good RHB was misguided because they have several who are due for some positive regression, and because Villar and Perez are fine against LHP's.

[Ennder]

I'm not sure we gave up anything of value for Schoop is my one argument here. I think we culled some players who really weren't worth a 40 man roster spot. Schoop is roughly the same as VIllar offensively and is a better fielder at 2B at least. He offers some stability at the position next year until Hiura is ready to be called up as well. I probably would not have made that deal but I don't think it is some super failure either.

[MrTPlush]

I'm not sure we gave up anything of value for Schoop is my one argument here. I think we culled some players who really weren't worth a 40 man roster spot. Schoop is roughly the same as VIllar offensively and is a better fielder at 2B at least. He offers some stability at the position next year until Hiura is ready to be called up as well. I probably would not have made that deal but I don't think it is some super failure either.

 

Is Schoop better at 2B defensively though? Jonathan Villar at nearly 1/3 the cost would have been a wiser stopgap if that is what we wanted. Not to mention Villar’s speed is a big boost over Schoop.

 

It was a confusing move at the time and keep looking worse by the day.

[MrTPlush]

I'm not sure we gave up anything of value for Schoop is my one argument here. I think we culled some players who really weren't worth a 40 man roster spot. Schoop is roughly the same as VIllar offensively and is a better fielder at 2B at least. He offers some stability at the position next year until Hiura is ready to be called up as well. I probably would not have made that deal but I don't think it is some super failure either.

 

Is Schoop better at 2B defensively though? Jonathan Villar at nearly 1/3 the cost would have been a wiser stopgap if that is what we wanted. Not to mention Villar’s speed is a big boost over Schoop.

 

It was a confusing move at the time and keep looking worse by the day. I can only imagine the Brewers hoped 2017 Schoop was the real deal and that hot week he had was a sign of some sort it was still in him. Now it is blowing up in their face (so far).

[Jaylyn]

After looking at Machado since the trade and Schoops struggles, is changing leagues that big of a variable?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm not sure we gave up anything of value for Schoop is my one argument here. I think we culled some players who really weren't worth a 40 man roster spot. Schoop is roughly the same as VIllar offensively and is a better fielder at 2B at least. He offers some stability at the position next year until Hiura is ready to be called up as well. I probably would not have made that deal but I don't think it is some super failure either.

 

Is Schoop better at 2B defensively though? Jonathan Villar at nearly 1/3 the cost would have been a wiser stopgap if that is what we wanted. Not to mention Villar’s speed is a big boost over Schoop.

 

It was a confusing move at the time and keep looking worse by the day. I can only imagine the Brewers hoped 2017 Schoop was the real deal and that hot week he had was a sign of some sort it was still in him. Now it is blowing up in their face (so far).

 

It was pretty obvious, at least to me, that Counsell had lost faith in Villar. Moving him was probably best for both.

[Fear The Chorizo]

After looking at Machado since the trade and Schoops struggles, is changing leagues that big of a variable?

 

Not really, but looking at ~3 weeks of stats and holding their results as gospel, whether they be good or bad, is a recipe for drastically misjudging a player's ability. Either one of those guys could go off for 10 days and make those struggles look relatively trivial as their AB totals climb with their new clubs. When considering coming from the Orioles, who have been a doormat the past two seasons, you've also got to consider the pressure adjustment for playing everyday in a playoff hunt vs playing out the string. Plus, for both Schoop and Manny, this is their 1st time playing for a MLB organization not affiliated with the Orioles.