Humber, Niemann sign, are they worth the wait?

[colbyjack]

Phillip Humber has finally signed with the New York Mets:

 

mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/ml...&fext=.jsp

 

Deal contigent on a physical of course, I'm sure we'll hear the financial details soon. This may cause Jeff Niemann to sign relatively soon, with the 2 remaining Boras boys, Weaver & Drew, still unsigned. I still think all of these guys will end up signing eventually.

 

BA now has the signing up, along with the financial details and other minor news regarding the other unsigned picks:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...umber.html

[EdgarDiazRocks]

I really can't see the two Boras clients signing anytimne soon.

 

Everybody else in the equation is different, but Drew and Weaver I bet go the Northern League route and declare free agency.

[colbyjack]

Everybody else in the equation is different, but Drew and Weaver I bet go the Northern League route and declare free agency.

 

I'm not sure what you mean by "declare free agency," but as long as players like Drew and Weaver are the property of some other team, meaning they got drafted (and as long as they are resident of the United States, Canada or Puerto Rico, they are eligible for the draft), they cannot declare free agency, at least not in the terms we're used to. If they don't sign with the D-Backs and Angels a week prior to this June's draft, they will be amateur free agents (even though they will be considered professional baseball players if they play for some independent league), and therefore are subject to the draft. If players could become true free agents a year after being drafted, you would probably see more players doing this, as being able to negotiate with any team obviously gives players more negotiating power.

 

And that negotiating power means a lot. In the roundtable stats vs. scouting discussion on BA, Eddie Bane (Angels) mentioned that in his current negotiations with Weaver, his agent (Boras) was trying to get Mark Prior money, and pointed out that only Mark Prior is worth Mark Prior money. I doubt either one of those guys will end up making any more money than likely what is currently on the table. Although that could have a big effect on whom the D-Backs draft with the #1 overall pick come June assuming Drew does indeed sign, especially given some of their other offseason spendings.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

I'm not sure what you mean by "declare free agency," but as long as players like Drew and Weaver are the property of some other team, meaning they got drafted (and as long as they are resident of the United States, Canada or Puerto Rico, they are eligible for the draft), they cannot declare free agency, at least not in the terms we're used to.

 

I mean that they will goo that same Travis Lee, Matt White, JD Drew route. White and Lee got out on technicalities and everybody knew what Drew's demands were.

 

I don't think the Angels budget is so huge that they can get all the top talent late like they did, plus sign Morales and sign Weaver, nor do I think Weaver and Drew, being brothers of current Boras clients are in any desperate need to sign for anything less than what they want.

 

The Yankees, Mets and Red Sox do need to restock their system and drafting those two this spring to me is the same as being free agents since it is obvious that only a few teams are going to be able to ink them.

 

Technical the term "free agent" is incorrect unless Anaheim and Arizona descried to save their supplemental round bonus money, but only in a strict sense of the word is it wrong.

 

Unlike the others, Boras clients make their position clear, and they don't really care about how much the other signees get.

[colbyjack]

Jeff Niemann has finally signed with the Devil Rays. 5-year MLB deal worth $5.2 million. $3.2 million of that is the signing bonus.

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...emann.html

[colbyjack]

I'm not sure how many people visit this forum during the winter months, but I thought I would toss this out for discussion...

 

Last spring, given the possibility at the time that the Brewers stood to take a college pitcher, I mentioned several times that any college pitcher we took so high (the 5th overall pick) might take a long time to sign. Phillip Humber was one of my (& others) favorites for the 2004 draft, and I felt that if he did fall to our pick he very well could have become a Brewer. While I noted that it may take all summer to sign such a pitcher, I really didn't anticipate for Humber and Niemann to take this long to sign. I did think the Boras guys could take this long, or longer, given the precedent set by Bobby Brownlie.

 

So, if the Brewers are in a position to draft a college pitcher, say Luke Hochevar, who from what I've heard has no connection to Scott Boras (Mike Pelfrey, Mark McCormick and Jason Neighborgall do), would you still select him if you thought even for one moment that the negotiations may take you through January or even February of 2006?

 

Another problem with these deals is that they all involve MLB contracts. Given the 40-man roster crunch we already have, and the increased 40-man roster crunch the team is going to face next year when guys like Fielder, Parra and even Palmisano will need to be added to avoid being lost to the Rule 5 draft, that MLB contract could pose an even bigger problem (and that doesn't even talk about the money involved).

 

It wouldn't really bother me to have such a pitcher take such a long time to sign, since these guys throw so much during the college season (roughly around 120-130 innings). However, would the wait be worth it to you, given the wait, the money involved and the 40-man spot, and do you feel there is some importance adding a pitcher (trying to separate pitchers from hitters, since I do believe it's important for hitters to be added ASAP) to your system as soon as possible?

[mothershipconnection]

would you still select him if you thought even for one moment that the negotiations may take you through January or even February of 2006?

I guess it depends on how big the dropoff is. If we're talking about a college stud versus a very good high schooler, than I certainly go with the stud and hope things work out. If we're looking at a Kerry Wood or Josh Beckett type high schooler with a cannon arm, or a guy like Humber, then yes, I'd certainly be hesitant to take the chance. I personally would like to see the team take a 5 tool high school hitter, but it all depends on who's available.

[thevaccinator27]

If I were really serious about this, I would create some kind of algorithim that includes projected ability versus how soon they will be ready.

 

But the truth is that I suck at numbers. So, I think in June, it will depend on who shows what so far through the season. If I need help more quickly, I would weight the readiness factor higher. If I have the luxury of time, I would weight potential higher. I think it all depends on what the particular ciricumstances are at the time for my team.

[colbyjack]

So, I think in June, it will depend on who shows what so far through the season. If I need help more quickly, I would weight the readiness factor higher. If I have the luxury of time, I would weight potential higher. I think it all depends on what the particular ciricumstances are at the time for my team.

 

I'm talking about the Brewers, so it's up to you to determine if we should target someone that is a little closer, or if the team should continue to draft & develop as they have been. If the Brewers are indeed getting closer to winnings consistently, as I've suggested before, the Brewers may want to alter some of their approaches to the draft.

 

And I do wonder if this is a big reason the Brewers shifted their sights to Rogers, who they signed quickly to a $2.2 million dollar deal that didn't require a spot on the 40-man roster.

[Anders34]

If Humber or Niemann were there when the Brewers pick, I am confident they would be Brewers. I believe the Brewers philosophy is to draft pitchers with a ceiling of either a #1 or #2. That is why I believe they passed on Sowers last year. Nothing against Rogers, but once the top college guys were gone, I was hoping for Chris Nelson, but oh well.

 

I think both would Humber and Niemann will be worth the wait. They would have only played a month or two at the end of the summer but would have had their innings limited due to high pitch counts. My feeling is for college pitchers with high pitch counts, it does not matter that much if you sign them in August or Jan.

[batman]

I wish the MLB would prohibit drafted players from signing Major League contracts that require them to be added to the 40-man roster. Even more so than the money, that seems to be the biggest sticking point in many negotiations. It's certainly great for the player, but it's not great for the club; one of the toughest parts of being an effective GM, I think, is effectively managing the 40-man. Adding players prematurely makes it more difficult to retain players and still juggle open spots so as to make acquisitions and waiver claims possible. It would be wonderful if we didn't have to worry about draft picks eating up spots, too.

 

All that said, I still think top-flight college pitchers are worth the hassle of extended negotiations. I think the innings issue that Patrick points out is enough of a benefit to justify postponing the signing until late enough that the pitcher doesn't being his professional career until the following season. College pitchers are still closer to the big leagues than their high school peers despite the delay, and hopefully their experience with advanced opponents will make their climb up the system quicker.

 

I don't hate the selection of high school pitchers as much as I used to, but I still think productive college pitchers are a good investment. Given the choice of selecting a very talented guy like Humber or a less-talented but easier-to-sign and doesn't-require-a-40-man-spot guy, I still think the better decision is to select the former. It's certainly a good question/debate, though.

 

$.02,

~Bill

[DHonks]

I still think there's more talent in HS, and it's more projectable. As I've said, I think a typical college junior class has already been picked through when seniors in high school and the fair amount of talented players who went to JuCo. So in any given year it would seem that the 100th best high school player has more upside than the 100th best college player, and therefore I'd shift my efforts to drafting even more high schoolers.

[batman]

Here's a solid article from BA that's relevant to this thread:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...pulse.html

 

Interesting stuff - worth reading if you're reading this thread. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

~Bill

[colbyjack]

I finally had the chance to read the entire story in under the link that batman has posted here (I noticed it was in the newsprint edition, so given the choice I'd rather sit down when I have a chance & read it from there). Anyway, the comments were particularly interesting pertaining to the idea of how difficult the adjustment could be for amateur (college & HS) pitchers going from pitching once a week to once every 5 days. They brought up Jered Weaver in particular, noting that he was in the low-90s on week's rest, and in the mid-80s on rests shorter than that (but in the 96 range when he had been WELL rested). Also commenting was a member of the Cubs staff who stressed how important it was to get their first pick (2nd rounder Grant Johnson from Notre Dame) into the pro level so he could make that transition earlier and hopefully quicker.

 

So, it is an intersting notion to balance. If I were a scout, I may be turned off by someone like Weaver given the measurables provided in the story that I mentioned. Of course, getting a pitcher in your throwing program may help correct an issue like that, but when Boras is involved once again you have to ask if he's worth the headache, much less the money?