Name The Pitcher

[adambr2]

Harvey and it will be surprisingly cheap.

 

The Mets are also going to throw in free Brewer season tickets for 2019 to all Brewerfan.net posters? That's about the only thing they could surprise me as far as how cheap Harvey should be.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Harvey and it will be surprisingly cheap.

 

The Mets are also going to throw in free Brewer season tickets for 2019 to all Brewerfan.net posters? That's about the only thing they could surprise me as far as how cheap Harvey should be.

 

Especially since Harvey is now Red!

[And That]

Baseball Reference = 4.1 (2016), 2.0 (2017), 3.6 (2018)

Fangraphs = 3.0, 2.5, 2.0

Take the average of the six numbers = 2.9

Just curious, why don't you use WARP? WARP is what brings it down closer to 2.5.

 

I also think $9 million/WAR is quite generous of you look at WAR from a projection standpoint. $/WAR for SPs has recently been as low as under $5 million. And has never been over $6 million.

I just did some quick math on MLB FA contracts for SPs this past offseason and using ZiPS projections, I get $5,683,000/WAR for starting pitchers.

 

If $6 million/WAR is used, Gausman's surplus value is closer to $15-$20 million.

[adambr2]

Harvey and it will be surprisingly cheap.

 

The Mets are also going to throw in free Brewer season tickets for 2019 to all Brewerfan.net posters? That's about the only thing they could surprise me as far as how cheap Harvey should be.

 

Especially since Harvey is now Red!

 

Oops, I knew that, but total brain lapse when typing. Mets FO is stingy so better chance anyway on the free season tickets.

[LouisEly]

Here's one I haven't seen yet, and I think it makes more sense than you think:

 

A middling prospect (Joantgel Segovia or the equivalent) to the White Sox for James Shields + $5M ($3M in salary relief, $2M to cover Shields' 2019 buyout).

 

Before you vomit all over your keyboard, Shields has averaged over 6 IP per start this year - he can get to the bullpen and keep the team in the game without taxing the bullpen with short starts. The 4.60 ERA/FIP isn't sexy, but get him out of the AL and the DH and that number comes down - he has a 3.41 ERA in inter-league play this season. His HR rate is down this year. Best of all, the Brewers keep all of their top prospects.

 

A 4.60 ERA translates into only 2.55 (earned) runs per five innings, 3 (earned) runs over six innings. That's plenty good enough to get to a lock-down bullpen and give the team a chance to win without mortgaging the future.

[bill hAll Star]

Here's one I haven't seen yet, and I think it makes more sense than you think:

 

A middling prospect (Joantgel Segovia or the equivalent) to the White Sox for James Shields + $5M ($3M in salary relief, $2M to cover Shields' 2019 buyout).

 

Before you vomit all over your keyboard, Shields has averaged over 6 IP per start - he can get to the bullpen and keep the team in the game without taxing the bullpen with short starts. The 4.60 ERA/FIP isn't sexy, but get him out of the AL and the DH and that number comes down - he has a 3.41 ERA in inter-league play this season. His HR rate is down this year. Best of all, the Brewers keep all of their top prospects.

 

A 4.60 ERA translates into only 2.55 (earned) runs per five innings, 3 (earned) runs over six innings. That's plenty good enough to get to a lock-down bullpen and give the team a chance to win without mortgaging the future.

 

The problem with the "he can go 6+" here is that any of our guys (Davies when he returns, Chacin, Anderson, Guerra, some of Peralta's starts) could also go 6 IP at those numbers if we were tanking like the White Sox.

 

Other than a few games where Peralta gets pitch counted in 4 or 5 innings, our starters absolutely can throw 100-120 pitches and go 6 or 7 innings...but we are choosing not to as a strategy. Plus, Shields is in the AL where they don't have to worry about pulling him for a key at bat. The White Sox are letting Shields pitch in games where they have a 2-1 lead and he puts 2 guys on in the 6th because the results of their games don't really matter. If he gets into that situation in Milwaukee, Josh Hader is coming in.

 

I'm fine with picking up a scrap heap player like him, but he's probably also going to go 5 IP a lot because we're trying to win.

[YelichPosse]

Here's one I haven't seen yet, and I think it makes more sense than you think:

 

A middling prospect (Joantgel Segovia or the equivalent) to the White Sox for James Shields + $5M ($3M in salary relief, $2M to cover Shields' 2019 buyout).

 

Before you vomit all over your keyboard, Shields has averaged over 6 IP per start - he can get to the bullpen and keep the team in the game without taxing the bullpen with short starts. The 4.60 ERA/FIP isn't sexy, but get him out of the AL and the DH and that number comes down - he has a 3.41 ERA in inter-league play this season. His HR rate is down this year. Best of all, the Brewers keep all of their top prospects.

 

A 4.60 ERA translates into only 2.55 (earned) runs per five innings, 3 (earned) runs over six innings. That's plenty good enough to get to a lock-down bullpen and give the team a chance to win without mortgaging the future.

 

The problem here is that any of our guys (Davies when he returns, Chacin, Guerra, some of Peralta's starts) could also go 6 IP at those numbers if we were tanking like the White Sox.

 

I'm fine with picking up a garbage player like him, but he's probably also going to go 5 IP a lot because we're trying to win.

 

Who originally said Carlos Rondon. Because THAT my friends is the outside the box, control left, type of guy that DS would target. Much more than Shields who I think we have several of his type but actually performing better this year as well. I think if it's not a splash for a real nice starter, it may be a bullpen piece from say Detroit or Minnesota.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Out of the blue...

 

Marlin's Dan Straily (controlled through 2020)

 

for something like

OF Domingo Santana and RHP Marcos Diplan

[bill hAll Star]

Out of the blue...

 

Marlin's Dan Straily (controlled through 2020)

 

for something like

OF Domingo Santana and RHP Marcos Diplan

 

My guess is that the package for Dan Straily would be something like the bullpen catcher for the T-Rats.

 

I guess he's been pitching better the last few weeks, but he's not someone that I'm interested in giving up value for. He is basically akin to what we already have in guys like Davies and likely inferior.

[josh]

Source: #Brewers pursuing #Nationals LHP Gio Gonzalez.

 

 

Me likey.

[splitterpfj]

Read the first post of this thread ..... if I win, do I get ice cream?

[Warning Track Power]

It's going to be Matt Harvey...and we all will be sad.

[RollieTime]

Read the first post of this thread ..... if I win, do I get ice cream?

 

If you win, I’ll get you ice cream AND a cookie!

[A Swing and A Drive]

Bundy

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Rumors flying that the Orioles are close to another deal. Gausman???

[DocLuna7]

Out of the blue...

 

Marlin's Dan Straily (controlled through 2020)

 

for something like

OF Domingo Santana and RHP Marcos Diplan

 

Wow and yuck. I will guess Gio or no one.

[Lathund]

Out of the targets flying around, Gausman might be the one that makes the most sense to me. Archer would too, but I would think the price would be too steep. I would think one of them would be the preferred target, as in a starter controllable for several years. If no target like that is available for a sensible cost, I think they turn to a cheap rental; if there are any good ones left.

 

I think one starter will be the only move made.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Out of the targets flying around, Gausman might be the one that makes the most sense to me. Archer would too, but I would think the price would be too steep. I would think one of them would be the preferred target, as in a starter controllable for several years. If no target like that is available for a sensible cost, I think they turn to a cheap rental; if there are any good ones left.

 

I think one starter will be the only move made.

 

That is my prediction as well. I think they come away with either Archer or Gausman. Price is going to be steep on both, though.

[dlk9s]

C.C. Sabathia. Bring back the magic.

[HarveysWBs]

Yanks still need an OF. We still need a SP. Sonny Gray and Domingo Santana could maybe benefit from a change of scenery. <30 mins to get it done.

[SeaBass]

 

Matt Harvey will be staying with the #Reds, source says, despite a flurry of trade discussions.

 

Dodged this bullet for now at least.

[pacopete4]

The Reds not getting what they can for him makes little sense.

[OldHeidelberg]

The Reds not getting what they can for him makes little sense.

 

He will likely clear waivers

[SeaBass]

There's always August.

[SeaBass]

Fiers still a Tiger per Jon Heyman. Another August possibility.