Name The Pitcher

[YelichPosse]

[sarcasm]Where's Dave Bush or Sean Marcum when you need them[/sarcasm]

[Mr Southpaw]

Andrew Cashner Baltimore

for

Ortiz, Broxton, and Supak

[buckybrewer232]

Gausman for Peralta and Troy Stokes.

I think I would do this. I'm probably committing blasphemy but I am not as high on Peralta as the board is generally.

 

I would do this as well. Peralta just seems like a guy who is always going to have issues walking guys, and will have a lot of starts where he struggles to get through even 5 innings. Not sure how his stuff will hold up over the long haul, either.

 

I think he ultimately ends up in the pen or back end rotation guy. I wouldn't be opposed to dealing him when his value is high. Hopefully Peralta shows me I'm wrong tonight!

 

I also think Gausman is one of those guys that can take off with a change of scenery. Especially if it's moving out of the AL East to the NL. He has great stuff.

[Invader3K]

I'll go with the outside the box idea proposed in a other thread: Michael Fiers.

[JosephC]

Valuing Gausman as a 2.9 WAR player per season from now until the end of the team's control, and his surplus value comes out to 47.231 million.

 

Curious on how you calculated surplus value. You must be estimated how much he gets in arby in 2019-2020 starting with his $5.6M this year?.....

Yah, I don't get close to $47 million.

 

BPro '16-'18: 6.2 WAR

Bref '16-'18: 9.5 WAR (they don't do projections so guessing at remaining 1/3 of '18)

FG '16-'18: 7.6 WAR (using ZiPS projection)

 

That totals 23.3 WAR total, or 7.8 average over '16-'18, or 2.6 average per year. 2.6 WAR x 2 1/3 year of control = 6.1 WAR from now until end of contract. $WAR/year estimates vary between about $8 million - $10 million depending on how you measure spending (based on projections or actual performance), and not adjusting for positional variances. So let's call it $9 million. $9 million x 6.1 WAR = $55 million of total value being produced.

 

As for arbitration, Gausman is going to have just under 5 years of service time at the end of the year. Looking at comps, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect arb salaries of $8.5 million in '19 and $11.5 million in '20 (which is probably light). Call it $20 million for '19-'20 plus $2 million remaining this year, gives a total remaining cost of contract of $22 million.

 

So $55 million of value less $22 million of cost gives $33 million of surplus value by my back of the envelope math.

 

That's about the value of a 55+40+40 or a 50+50+35 OFP prospect package. So my guess would be in the neighborhood of Ortiz+Bickford+Torres-Costa or Houser+Dubon+Wilkerson.

 

When the WAR values for 2018 are extrapolated to cover a full season, the seasonal WAR's are as follows:

Baseball Reference = 4.1 (2016), 2.0 (2017), 3.6 (2018)

Fangraphs = 3.0, 2.5, 2.0

Take the average of the six numbers = 2.9

 

Only 27 years old so no regession is factored in.

 

2018 = 1 WAR = 9.16 million, 2019 = 1 WAR = 9.80 million, 2020 = 1 WAR = 10.49 million

2018 = 2.9 WAR * 0.33 (only 1/3 of season left) = 0.95 WAR * 9.16 million = 8.70 million

2019 = 2.9 WAR * 9.80 million = 28.42 million

2020 = 2.9 WAR * 10.16 million = 30.421 million

Total value = 67.541 million

 

Remaining salaries.

 

2018 = 5.6 million * 0.33 (only 1/3 of season left) = 1.86 million

2019 = 7.85 million (arbitration guess)

2020 = 10.60 million (arbitration guess)

Total earnings = 20.31 million

 

67.541 - 20.31 = 47.231 million in surplus value

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think it's either harvey or Gibson from the twins.

[LouisEly]

I'll go with the outside the box idea proposed in a other thread: Michael Fiers.

That's what I was thinking.

 

Why?

 

Career vs. Cubs: 3.77 ERA, 1.116 WHIP, 12.2 K/9, 4.33 K/BB, .269 OBP, .618 OPS-A.

[xisxisxis]

That's what I was thinking.

 

Clancy beat both of you as he suggested that several days ago in the Suter thread...

[SRB]

Out of the box: Stearns makes a big play for Tyler Skaggs from the Angels.

 

Sonny Gray would be a good buy low, and the Yankees just added another SP.

[jjfanec]

Out of the box: Stearns makes a big play for Tyler Skaggs from the Angels.

 

Sonny Gray would be a good buy low, and the Yankees just added another SP.

 

Please no on Sonny Gray unless it is for pretty much nothing

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Out of the box: Stearns makes a big play for Tyler Skaggs from the Angels.

 

Sonny Gray would be a good buy low, and the Yankees just added another SP.

 

I'd be all over Sonny Gray for a lottery ticket or two. Or expand it to Gray and a prospect or someone like Austin Romine for Santana.

[MadThinker88]

Out of the box: Stearns makes a big play for Tyler Skaggs from the Angels.

 

Sonny Gray would be a good buy low, and the Yankees just added another SP.

 

I'd be all over Sonny Gray for a lottery ticket or two. Or expand it to Gray and a prospect or someone like Austin Romine for Santana.

 

With Gary Sanchez back on the DL, why would the Yankees trade their starting catcher for Domingo Santana???

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Out of the box: Stearns makes a big play for Tyler Skaggs from the Angels.

 

Sonny Gray would be a good buy low, and the Yankees just added another SP.

 

I'd be all over Sonny Gray for a lottery ticket or two. Or expand it to Gray and a prospect or someone like Austin Romine for Santana.

 

With Gary Sanchez back on the DL, why would the Yankees trade their starting catcher for Domingo Santana???

 

Sanchez has a groin strain, and will likely be back next week. I was just looking for a match, and Romine is a solid backup catcher that could be more. Kyle Higashioka would be a nice pickup if they are intent on hanging on to Romine.

[MrTPlush]

I'll go with the outside the box idea proposed in a other thread: Michael Fiers.

That's what I was thinking.

 

Why?

 

Career vs. Cubs: 3.77 ERA, 1.116 WHIP, 12.2 K/9, 4.33 K/BB, .269 OBP, .618 OPS-A.

 

Back when the Cubs where trash.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm going to guess Kyle Gibson with say a package of Corey Ray and Luis Ortiz plus a 3rd(ptbnl)

[LouisEly]

My dark horse that nobody has mentioned yet - Nick Ramirez.

 

Multi-inning reliever who doesn't need to be pinch-hit for and can also pinch-hit on days he's unavailable after a multi-inning outing. 4-man rotation for August with shorter starts and spot-starts for when they need a 5th starter.

[rickh150]

Harvey

[82brewcrew82]

I'm going to guess Kyle Gibson with say a package of Corey Ray and Luis Ortiz plus a 3rd(ptbnl)

Dear lord, please no.

[YelichPosse]

Gio Gonzalez

 

Dark horse get. Also going to make a last minute push for Realmuto.

 

This time tomorrow we will be the favorites in the NL.

[iKezims]

Andrew Cashner Baltimore

for

Ortiz, Broxton, and Supak

 

Uhhh, no.

[Eye Black]

Random... Derek Holland (Giants)

I don’t think I realized how good Derek Holland has been this year. His peripherals are solid and he is striking out just over a batter an inning as a starter. Good for him to get things turned around heading into free agency this off-season. If the Giants really are dealing McCutchen I have to assume they would move Holland as well.

[Jkromb]

One of two things happens today..

1. We stand pat.

2. Somehow by a stroke of a genius Stearns will trade for DeGrlm and Realmuto making us the NL favorites.

[Jaylyn]

Harvey and it will be surprisingly cheap.

[And That]

Baseball Reference = 4.1 (2016), 2.0 (2017), 3.6 (2018)

Fangraphs = 3.0, 2.5, 2.0

Take the average of the six numbers = 2.9

Just curious, why don't you use WARP? WARP is what brings it down closer to 2.5.

 

I also think $9 million/WAR is quite generous of you look at WAR from a projection standpoint. $/WAR for SPs has recently been as low as under $5 million. And has never been over $6 million.

[pacopete4]

Random... Derek Holland (Giants)

I don’t think I realized how good Derek Holland has been this year. His peripherals are solid and he is striking out just over a batter an inning as a starter. Good for him to get things turned around heading into free agency this off-season. If the Giants really are dealing McCutchen I have to assume they would move Holland as well.

 

Soria was never mentioned so I tried to find a starter who I have never seen mentioned. Nothing else behind it.