Name The Pitcher

[JosephC]

Lance Lynn maybe?

 

5.10 ERA, 1.63 WHIP are awful. Much of that was due to a terrible start. 8.37 ERA in April, 3.76 in May, 2.83 in June, 6.08 in July. The July ERA has ballooned due to one disaster game against the Cubs on July 1 where he gave up 7 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings. Without that one start his July ERA would be 3.68. I'm not a big fan of excluding data, but clearly the bad start in April is an outlier. From the beginning of May until now (including the July 1 start), he's had a 4.12 ERA.

 

Lynn did have a 6 start stretch from May 22 through June 20 where he threw 36 1/3 innings and had a 1.73 ERA. Then he had one bad start and then the disaster on July 1. Since that time he's started 4 games and has a 3.68 ERA over 22 innings.

 

The peripherals are ugly enough where he's not going to have any real surplus value, which means if the Brewers would likely only have to give up a fringe prospect (and not a better one at that) if they were willing to pick up the rest of Lynn's salary. Lynn is due a couple big bonuses if he hits some innings incentives. I don't think those incentives are likely to be reached, but the Twins would likely be willing to pick up a large percentage of that in order to dump the remainder of this year's salary on Milwaukee. I'm not really a proponent of trading for Lynn. But if the price for someone like Gausman is too high and Stearns feel it absolutely necessary to pick up another starter for depth, then Lynn seems to be one of the better options out there. I would definitely rather have Lynn instead of Matt Harvey.

[StearnsFTW]

Gausman for Peralta and Troy Stokes.

[82brewcrew82]

Gausman for Peralta and Troy Stokes.

I think I would do this. I'm probably committing blasphemy but I am not as high on Peralta as the board is generally.

[bill hAll Star]

Jordan Zimmermann

 

Take a look at the stats before his game vs Cleveland on sunday (7/29).

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zimmejo02.shtml

Not too bad..

 

Deal is done as a waiver item so it gets completed on Monday 8/6.

Considering the amount of the remaining contract, it might only cost a couple lottery tickets or a likely R5 casualty & lottery ticket...

 

I can't see that being done unless Attanasio wanted it, and stuck his nose in - $25M per season is a lot to take on and that doesn't seem to me (being the Stearns expert that I am) like a move that Stearns would make by choice.

 

Even though Zimmermann is pitching better, if the Brewers were taking on that contract, the Tigers would be the ones sending back several prospects.

 

I could see a deal where the Tigers take on $35-40 million of the remaining $55-60 million but even then, Mark would have to sign off on it. That's still $10 million/year for 2 more years.

[adambr2]

I honestly hope we just stand pat rather than throw out some of the offers that would be needed for some of the names here that I really don't think are even that exciting. I would be fine with a name like Harvey as long as it's basically free.

 

I'm not crazy about our depth, but it's not an emergency situation. Davies is a 2nd half guy and almost back, Woodruff is still an option, and I know we can't count on Nelson but he could still return in September. Bullpenning is becoming an ever bigger thing, and I'm not giving up a Peralta quality prospect for Gausman when I'm frankly not even sure that he's going to have better results than anyone we've had.

 

I get the appeal of guys like Archer and Gausman and Gibson and Bundy and Wheeler, I'm not against it, but all of the sudden these teams are pricing these guys like existing aces. Not interested at the prices being tossed around.

[JosephC]

Valuing Gausman as a 2.9 WAR player per season from now until the end of the team's control, and his surplus value comes out to 47.231 million. I don't think it's realistic for the Orioles to get that, but 35-40 million would be very realistic. I don't think they should move him at all if offers come in at less than 30 million. Peralta and Stokes evaluations are clear cut IMO. Peralta is a #76-#100 pitcher and that's worth 17.86 million in prospect surplus value. Stokes is a role-player prospect and that's worth 5.72 million in prospect surplus value. Combined value is 23.58 million, short of what I would expect the minimum would be for Gausman.

 

I'd slot Woodruff as a tweener between #76-#100 pitcher and top 10 organizational prospect, which would put his surplus value at 14.66 million. Adding him in brings the value of the package to 38.24 million which is almost right in the middle of the range for the fair asking price for Gausman. The package also included two major league ready starting pitchers, which is what the Orioles were reported to want in the Machado deal (and didn't get). I think the Orioles would do this deal. The bigger questions are...would Stearns see proper value in this and if he did...could he risk the depth concerns of bringing in one starter but shipping out two starters in one trade?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Gausman for Peralta and Troy Stokes.

I think I would do this. I'm probably committing blasphemy but I am not as high on Peralta as the board is generally.

 

Part of me almost wonders if tonight's game in LA is Freddy Peralta showcase game. I think he is likely to be the one traded if they acquire any of the non-rental starters available.

 

I agree with your assessment on Peralta. He is certainly a nice arm to have, but I think he tops out as a back of the rotation starter or pen arm. If he pitches well against the Dodgers tonight, they very well could be dealing him at peak value if he goes tomorrow.

[chuckiehacks]

Gausman, though admittedly, that's who I hope they get, not necessarily who I think they'll get. I think he has the most upside of anyone available.

[Roderick]

Valuing Gausman as a 2.9 WAR player per season from now until the end of the team's control, and his surplus value comes out to 47.231 million.

 

Curious on how you calculated surplus value. You must be estimated how much he gets in arby in 2019-2020 starting with his $5.6M this year?.....

 

Are we concerned that is K's per 9 innnings is down ~10-14%? Thats about the biggest change in this years stats to his history.

[brewmann04]

Fullmer , Ross. Stroman

Your prediction is they are going to trade for all three? Now that is a BOLD prediction!

 

no one of these 3

[82brewcrew82]

I'm starting to think maybe Harvey and Wheeler. They don't seem to be in on position players at this point. Lots of smoke around pitchers. If DS said a move or two, mabye two starters?

[tmwiese55]

Carlos Rodon.

 

Controllable, has upside. Pitching better last couple games.

 

I'd love this pickup. Someone several months ago who's also a Sox fan said he's basically off limits though as they view him as a building block. So I'm guessing the price is sky high.

 

On a sidenote, I have him in fantasy so I pay attention to him. This week he went 7 innings in both games with I think 1 run and 0 runs given up if I remember correctly. Manager brings him back out for the 8th in both games with upper 90s pitches and runs him into the mid teens while he gives up runs in the 8th. This is for a team that's 30 games out and their best young arm who has had a litany of injuries. Just horrible management of the player and horrible game management. When you see stuff like this you understand what MKE is doing even more.

 

Also, Maeda from LAD this week went 7 with 1 run, manager brings him out for the 8th. Lets him complete the full inning giving up 3 more runs. Making it the tie game that went 16 innings. Genius management.

[Oldcity]

I'll also say Gausman. Would be a pretty bold move, but I think Stearns goes bold.

[Devinep]

I don’t see what’s so exciting about Gausman. He just isn’t that good

[And That]

Valuing Gausman as a 2.9 WAR player per season from now until the end of the team's control, and his surplus value comes out to 47.231 million.

 

Curious on how you calculated surplus value. You must be estimated how much he gets in arby in 2019-2020 starting with his $5.6M this year?.....

Yah, I don't get close to $47 million.

 

BPro '16-'18: 6.2 WAR

Bref '16-'18: 9.5 WAR (they don't do projections so guessing at remaining 1/3 of '18)

FG '16-'18: 7.6 WAR (using ZiPS projection)

 

That totals 23.3 WAR total, or 7.8 average over '16-'18, or 2.6 average per year. 2.6 WAR x 2 1/3 year of control = 6.1 WAR from now until end of contract. $WAR/year estimates vary between about $8 million - $10 million depending on how you measure spending (based on projections or actual performance), and not adjusting for positional variances. So let's call it $9 million. $9 million x 6.1 WAR = $55 million of total value being produced.

 

As for arbitration, Gausman is going to have just under 5 years of service time at the end of the year. Looking at comps, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect arb salaries of $8.5 million in '19 and $11.5 million in '20 (which is probably light). Call it $20 million for '19-'20 plus $2 million remaining this year, gives a total remaining cost of contract of $22 million.

 

So $55 million of value less $22 million of cost gives $33 million of surplus value by my back of the envelope math.

 

That's about the value of a 55+40+40 or a 50+50+35 OFP prospect package. So my guess would be in the neighborhood of Ortiz+Bickford+Torres-Costa or Houser+Dubon+Wilkerson.

[KeithStone53151]

Yah, I don't get close to $47 million.

 

BPro '16-'18: 6.2 WAR

Bref '16-'18: 9.5 WAR (they don't do projections so guessing at remaining 1/3 of '18)

FG '16-'18: 7.6 WAR (using ZiPS projection)

 

That totals 23.3 WAR total, or 7.8 average over '16-'18, or 2.6 average per year. 2.6 WAR x 2 1/3 year of control = 6.1 WAR from now until end of contract. $WAR/year estimates vary between about $8 million - $10 million depending on how you measure spending (based on projections or actual performance), and not adjusting for positional variances. So let's call it $9 million. $9 million x 6.1 WAR = $55 million of total value being produced.

 

As for arbitration, Gausman is going to have just under 5 years of service time at the end of the year. Looking at comps, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect arb salaries of $8.5 million in '19 and $11.5 million in '20 (which is probably light). Call it $20 million for '19-'20 plus $2 million remaining this year, gives a total remaining cost of contract of $22 million.

 

So $55 million of value less $22 million of cost gives $33 million of surplus value by my back of the envelope math.

 

That's about the value of a 55+40+40 or a 50+50+35 OFP prospect package. So my guess would be in the neighborhood of Ortiz+Bickford+M. Feliciano or Houser+Dubon+Wilkerson.

 

I don't know a ton about Gausman, but my understanding is he has generally underachieved from a results standpoint based on his stuff. Targeting him only makes sense if we are very confident we can harness his stuff better than the O's.

[And That]

I don't know a ton about Gausman, but my understanding is he has generally underachieved from a results standpoint based on his stuff. Targeting him only makes sense if we are very confident we can harness his stuff better than the O's.

I just based that on what he's done by the WAR metrics, and extrapolating that out until the end of his contract. So if he got no better, this is what he could be worth. If he got a lot better, the Brewers would reap the benefits obviously. The Orioles may try to price him as though he were going to get significantly better, but that's kind of like saying "he's not great because we suck at development" so I don't know how far down the road they want to run that argument re:Gausman, who turns 28 in January and has generally been healthy the past few years. It may work better with Bundy.

[long ball]

Marco Estrada kinda seems like a Stearns move. FB pitcher with moderate strike out numbers and solid walk rate. Won't cost a lot either.

 

Brewers have the highest defensive efficiency on fly balls in the MLB.

 

I'm not advocating for him, but kinda fits the mold.

[Oldcity]

I would be happy with Estrada as a more cost effective option.

[Warning Track Power]

Really think the Brewers will be targeting higher strikeout pitchers now that Shaw is our 2B.

[brewerfan82]

I'll go with Gausman. If nothing else, I'm just super curious to see how different his results will be:

 

- Moving from the O's worst defense in MLB (-81 DRS) to the Brewer's best defense in MLB (+83 DRS)

- Moving from the AL East (w/ DH & Red Sox and Yankees) to the NL Central (w/o DH and no top 2 records in MLB teams)

- Moving from the O's coaching/pitching development to the Brewers w/ DJ

 

I also like that he's got a little more control than a rental or even a Wheeler

[Brewer Fever]

Sticking with my call that one of deGrom, Thor, Matz, Wheeler, Bundy, Gausman, or Cashner is acquired from the Mets or O's. The upside of simply going from a team that is terrible at saving runs to the very best is just too good to ignore. 7 options to find a price that's fair enough to stomach. I imagine Stearns has the price on all 7 and we'll work to the deadline to find the deal that best matches price and upside.

[TooLiveBrew]

If the price would be roughly even between deGrom & Syndergaard, I think I'd actually roll the dice on Syndergaard & the extra year of control.

 

That said, I'm not in favor of moving Hiura. So I probably wouldn't make either move right now. I'd really like to see what we have for a rotation next season with Nelson back, and then the rest of Anderson, Chacín, Guerra, Davies, Peralta, Burnes, etc.

 

It's not that I don't think we need to add a SP this season to be legit. But I'd hate to burn Hiura+ to only get 2 or 3 seasons of a guy, even if he's a true #1. If we're sending Hiura somewhere, I'd like to see him used to get a top pitching prospect, or a pitcher with 4+ years of control.

[NievesNoNO]

Matt Harvey. I get the feeling that DS is not willing to move the prospects it would take to get a guy like DeGrom for sure and possibly guys like Wheeler or Guasman.

 

IF Harvey was really up in the mid to high 90's with his fastball I think that's important. I've been starting to come around on him. Even if he's a guy you're just relying on to pitch meaningful innings and not be a top of the rotation guy. He has all the motivation in the world going for him and if he pitches well, the Brewers can "abuse" the innings without any real consequence to them.

[amt2138]

I like Carlos Rodon talk but it seems like the White Sox might be served best to wait until the off-season on him.

 

I'll go with Matt Boyd