Jeff Clement

[SenatorShriv]

I was just looking for some feedback about Jeff Clement.

 

I know that Jack Z doesn't usually draft on positional need, but it could be pretty hard to pass up a power hitting catcher. How bad is his defense? Is it his arm or other issues. What other positions could he project to if catcher didn't work out? Anybody think that he is a strong possibility for our pick?

[Katuluu]

There's also three positional prospects that could project as future thirdbasemen in the majors that could be possible top 5 picks. Gordon, Upton, and Greene all could fill that need for us as well. I'm very excited for this upcoming draft.

[colbyjack]

The Brewers have never drafted for need, but you both bring up interesting points. I think catcher is one position that the Brewers, or any team, would make an exception for given how hard it is to find backstops that can hit.

 

And Clement can mash. Great power and a very good eye at the plate. So far in college, he hasn't struck out that much either, and given his power he still has a short & compact stroke that could allow him to be a good to great all around hitter.

 

As for his defense, I've always heard that he's trying hard & putting a lot of hours into improving, but I still haven't heard anyone say that they think he can stick behind the plate as a pro. I have heard that he has bulked up quite a bit by hitting the weights hard, which has limited his flexibility, which may take him out from behind the plate sooner rather than later. I think his arm is sound back there, but his agility is not. As for a position switch, 1B has been mentioned, so I'm guessing people aren't exactly sold on his overall athleticism since third base has not.

 

The first name that comes to mind for me is Eric Munson, another left-handed slugger who was considered a can't-miss run producer whom the Tigers drafted 3rd overall out of the same school, USC. The Tigers immediately move Munson from behind the plate to 1B hoping to put him on the fast track to the big leagues.

 

I guess we'll find out more later about his ability to stay at catcher, but from what I've heard I wouldn't count on it. His bat still might be worth a top 5-10 pick. I know CarolinaTommy has seen Clement play the past couple of summers, so hopefully he'll chime in.

 

As for Kat's point about numerous 3B candidates being available, maybe this is the year in which the Brewers actually find their 3B of the future, simply because there are several good candides to choose from. You could also throw Long Beach SS Troy Tulowitzki into that group who may have to move to 3B given his size. Viriginia 3B Ryan Zimmerman probably doesn't have the power potential to be taken as high as the 5th overall pick, but he's another 3B prospect that is projected to go in the first round at this point in time. On the prep side you have two 2-way stars in Sean O'Sullivan & Justin Bristow that could be considered 3B if they're drafted as positional prospects.

 

Jack Z. has always said that he likes to play the draft for their strengths, and with so many 3B prospects available next June, it may finally be the year...

 

Of course, I've been hoping for that for several years now.

[jwaltz]

Thanks for the word on Clement. I was wondering about him myself. If it doesn't look like he can stay behind the plate and doesn't have the athleticism for third, I would probably pass on him. We have enough firstbasemen as it is. I am really excited by the number of potential quality 3B in the draft. I sure hope this is finally the year.

 

And one other thing I was thinking about. How would Gordon compare to Marte or Wright when they were drafted? Is he near their class or not? Just something I was wondering.

[Katuluu]

Gordon is quite possibly Teixiera good. Except with defense. Commence drooling.

[colbyjack]

I think Teixeira is a good comparison, and as Kat noted, Gordon is more likely to stay at 3B (although Teixeira likely would have stayed at 3B if it hadn't been for Hank Blalock's presence).

 

I'm not so sure if Marte & Wright are good comparisons because those two guys are more pure athletes than Gordon, who is more of a true slugger. That's not to say that Gordon isn't a good athlete. Plus, both Marte & Wright bat right-handed, which for me is always hard to compare someone that hits from the opposite side (Gordon hits left-handed).

 

How about Eddie Matthews for a comparison? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Katuluu]

Eric Chavez might be a good comparison as well. Although Gordon will probably bulk up a bit more then him, but right now their bodies are extremelly similar.

[colbyjack]

Oh yeah, I forgot to mention ASU's Travis Buck as another possible 3B prospect. Buck was a SS in HS, and many considered him to be a 3B prospect coming out of HS. He moved to the OF upon reaching ASU's campus, and I've heard from more than one scouting resource that they would like to see him back at the hot corner. Buck is a good hitter with great patience at the plate.

[CarolinaTommy]

I agree with what colbyjack says. I saw him play with Team USA his freshman and sophomore seasons. During the summer after his freshman season, I thought he looked sub-standard defensively. I thought his arm looked below average. However, this summer his arm looked like it would play at the major league level. He still was not great defensively, as he lacks some mobility and quick skills, he looked better. He may have went from a 40 arm to a 50 arm over the year through his work, or his arm was just tired after his freshman season. Athleticism could be a question mark for him; his body type does not yield for great mobility.

 

He's kind of smallish, which could make 1B a less attractive possibility. I would definitely say 6'1" is a stretch for him, he's likely below 6-foot. Not to say you could not stick him over there, however. I see him as a catcher 2-3 days a week, DH or 1B the other days. It would depend on the team's philosophy and how he progresses/regresses on his defensive game.

[jwaltz]

CarolinaTommy, in your opinion, what do you think about his chances at third? Can he do it? And how likely would he be to stick there? This is just something I was wondering.

 

And thanks for your input. I appreciate it.

[brew2]

Hey, I'm from Virginia and J. Bristow would be a great pick for you guys. I saw him play football this fall. He's gotten bigger, faster & more athletic. He's listed at 6'4" and 220 & moves very well - he's still only 17. He has a cannon for an arm - I believe he leads the Central Va. area in passing. And I heard this summer he really raked with a wood bat. He's played mostly SS his whole career, but would likely move to 3B because of his size. He's gonna be a great player at the pro level - he crushes the baseball & is only gonna get better.

[JohnBriggs12]

I have to think the reason Clement is rated so highly is because he is a catcher and to at least some degree projects as a catcher by somebody. If scouts didn't think he could catch as a pro wouldn't his stock be a little lower? After all offensive first basemen are not that hard to find.

[colbyjack]

brew2, have you had the chance to see Bristow play? I wished I would have had a better glance of him in the AFLAC game. At this time last year some people considered him the #2 prep player available for '05 (behind fellow Virginian Justin Upton).

 

I have to think the reason Clement is rated so highly is because he is a catcher and to at least some degree projects as a catcher by somebody. If scouts didn't think he could catch as a pro wouldn't his stock be a little lower? After all offensive first basemen are not that hard to find.

 

If offensive first basemen weren't hard to find, more teams would have them. I agree that a good hitting first baseman is easier to find than a good hitter at just about any other position, but good hitters no matter where they play are harder to find than some may presume.

 

But Clement's value is definitely affected by what position he plays. I have thought about this myself, where would he be rated if he didn't catch? He may hit enough to make that close to being a non-issue, and similar to Eric Munson, whom I've compared Clement to before, his inability to catch didn't effect his draft stock in 1999.

 

And that brings up an interesting point, if you have the ability to draft a good SS like Tyler Greene that possibly projects to hit in the .770 OPS range, would you take him over a guy like Jeff Clement that could hit in the .850 range as a first baseman?

[950opsLHcatcher]

if you have the ability to draft a good SS like Tyler Greene that possibly projects to hit in the .770 OPS range, would you take him over a guy like Jeff Clement that could hit in the .850 range as a first baseman?

 

That's a good question. To put it in terms of MLB players, would it be better to have Khalil Greene/Rafael Furcal or Phil Nevin/Brad Wilkerson?

 

Just on the face of it, the shortstops appear to me more valuable. Greene (.795 '04/.781 career) and Furcal (.758/.751) ranked 6th and 9th respectively among shortstops in OPS this year, and they are both average-to-good defensively (though Furcal is known to be erratic with a strong arm). Nevin (.859/.837) and Wilkerson (.872/.838) ranked 9th and 12 respectively among first basemen in OPS. Wilkerson is above average defensively while Nevin is average or slightly less than average.

 

Assuming Tyler Greene hit 770 and played good D at the major league level, he's in the top third of shortstops, though far below the first four or five (roughly 60-70 OPS points below the median of the top five guys). His defensive skills with a 770 OPS would make him the 8th best MLB SS this season.

 

Assuming Jeff Clement hit 850 and played average D at the major league level, he's among the middle third of MLB first basemen, and clearly not close to the top tier (roughly 130-140 OPS points below the median of the top five guys, or twice as much as T. Greene). Clement would have to put up a 900 OPS to be in the same value-range offensively as T. Greene, and even then he'd still be farther off the pace of the top tier guys than Greene would. Clement also wouldn't be as valuable defensively as Greene because Greene plays the position almost on the opposite end of the defensive spectrum as Clement, and he plays it well. If Clement plays the easiest defensive position adequately, that adds almost no value to his game. His defensive skills combined with an 850 OPS would make him the 13th best MLB 1B this season.

 

So, I'd take Greene.

 

Edit:

I also want to add that first baseman don't vary very much in OPS in the middle of the pack. A 20-30 point swing in OPS changes where a first baseman stands a lot, especially since defense isn't a really big issue most of the time. For example, an 875 OPS would push Clement up to 9th (surpassing Wilkerson). Pushing T. Greene to 800 moves him up only two spots, and possibly a third. I think this also proves my point about a good SS vs. a good 1B. There is a bit of dilution in the first baseman pool for guys that hit between 830-900.

 

And going back a few years, a first baseman with an 850 OPS is anywhere from low top-third to low middle-third. A 770 OPS shortstop is always top-third, sometimes middle top-third.

[brew2]

hey colbyjack:

yeah, I've seen Bristow play baseball several times. He's big, smooth, powerful, has a great arm (hit 94 last spring) and can crush. He hit 3 HR's in his first HS game last year & then teams intentionally walked him everytime there was a runner in scoring position. As a pitcher, he beat Upton's team in the VA. State tournament. He didn't have a great AFLAC game mostly because he had a severely sprained wrist that he hurt at the East Coast Showcase the week before. He didn't get to participate in the HR derby at AFLAC because of the wrist but didn't want to pass up playing in the game. Don't forget he was the MVP of the USA team (in Taiwan) when he was 16 as the SS. He's gonna be a great pro - hope the Brewers grab him early.

[colbyjack]

Thanks again brew2.

 

Have you had a chance to see Brandon Snyder play at all? We hear so much about Upton & Bristow, another fellow Viriginia prep SS in Snyder gets lost in the shuffle. I've heard from more than one place that scouts would like to see what he can do behind the plate (like Michael Barrett & Brandon Inge), and has committed to play for LSU.

[brew2]

colbyjack-

yeah, I've seen B. Snyder play a few times. He's athletic - swings the bat well and has a very good arm. He plays mostly SS in HS, but lots of baseball folks think his quickest route to pro ball is as a catcher. Can't comment as I've never seen him catch - but he could probably do it. He's about 6'2" and 190 lbs. I would rank him behind Upton & Bristow as far as Va. prospects go in overall talent & projectability - but he could be a late 1st rounder or an early 2nd round pick. Lots of talent in Va. for the '05 draft. Should be very interesting next June.

[brew2]

colbyjack:

As a follow up to my response yesterday, go to the TeamOne Baseball website as they rank the HS middle infielders. They have Upton @ #1, Bristow @ #2 and Snyder @ #4. I guess they agree with my assessment as well. Hey, all 3 are great players & from Va. which is pretty cool - that's pretty amazing that 3 of the top 4 HS middle IF's in the country are from the state of VA.

[colbyjack]

I did see T1's list when it was posted earlier today, thanks for the head's up.

 

That is an impressive Virginia crop of players, which means you'll have to keep us all posted on their accomplishments next spring http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

[JohnBriggs12]

Baseball America has a nice article on Clement that dispels concern about his defense behind the plate.

 

"Showing much improvement behind the plate, Clement threw out 27 of 66 basestealers (41 percent), including four of five in a game against Stanford"

 

USC coach Mike Gillespie on Clement: "Anybody that watches him this spring will see that there won't be any doubts about his defense".

 

Given his potent bat, position, and the fact he's practically from Brewer backyard (Marshalltown, IA), I'd hope the Brewers select him if available.

[colbyjack]

From today's BA chat with Will Kimmey:

 

Q: Eric from Los Angeles of Anaheim asks: I have heard USC catcher Jeff Clement compared to former USC catcher Eric Munson. Does this mean that once drafted Clement will move from behind the plate K too much and be cut loose after a few years in the majors?

 

A: Will Kimmey: That's exactly what it means. For those of you who didn't know, Clement is an exact clone of Munson. And for those of you who don't pick up that sarcasm, please note it. This is probably the top reason I'm not a comparison fan, because everyone is different. Both are college catchers whom scouts had questions about defensively, and I think that comparison could dog Clement a little, in the same way that people were down on Duke basketball players as pros for a little while. Again, comparisons are OK, but not ever to a T. The defense might be a question, but Clement's power is not, even with wood. It will be enough for him to remain behind the plate, and the worst-case scenario has him in a Matt LeCroy type role where he'd catcher a few days a week and also play some at first and DH. But he'd obviously be a better hitter than LeCroy, just to cut that comp off at the pass. Clement's strikeouts total wasn't among the top 50 in the Pac-10 last year, so that might be another indication that he could emerge as a better hitter than Munson long term.

 

I think the question started out more as a joke, although I have compared Clement to Munson. I think what Will Kimmey forgets is that Munson had the same kind of power potential and overall hitting prowess coming out of college. He didn't get drafted 3rd overall in 1998 for nothing, especially since the Tigers moved him immediately to 1B. If they felt he could hit well enough to play 1B, that says a lot about what they felt about his bat. And they weren't alone. I remember the comments around draft day talking about how Munson should be in the Majors within a few years, and would be a fixture at 1B for the Tigers for a long, long time.

 

And I'm, nor the other people that have compared Clement to Muson, are saying Clement is going to end up with the same kind of fate, just comparing what people are talking about now vs. what people talked about Munson then.

 

And LeCroy's bat was pretty highly thought of back then too. I think Mr. Kimmey here is missing the power of retrospect.

[colbyjack]

I interviewed Clement recently for PG:

 

www.perfectgame.org/2005/...erview.cfm

 

If you can't tell by his responses in the interview, he's an extremely well-grounded individual.