Brewers Trade for Mike Moustakas, Royals receive Phillips and Lopez

[danzig6767]

The notion that Moustakas couldn't best a 1/$15 million deal this offseason is crazy. Let's be realistic, he's going to be a free agent and he's likely going to get $80 million or more, perhaps nine figures, in the offseason.

 

The only reason he ended up back in Kansas City is because Boras finally miscalculated by holding out for a mega-mega-deal too long.

 

Finally? Hasn't he done this several times in the past few years? Boras gets the biggest deals done...but he's also hurt some clients when he's trying to reset the market and the teams just aren't biting. And I don't see a guy who coming off a very good year who gets 6.5 million "easily" getting 80 million when you have Machado, Donaldson and Beltre available at the same position he plays.

Yea, no way Moustakas is getting some 80-100 plus million dollar contract this offseason.

[jjfanec]

At some point in this thread can we just decide to watch shaw play 2b before saying he can't do it? Maybe he can't but the team has had him practice there and maybe they think he is fine there. This isn't the same regime that trotted out yuni and kotsay out there simply disregarding defense in big games

[MrTPlush]

This isn't the same regime that trotted out yuni and kotsay out there simply disregarding defense in big games

 

They are doing the same exact thing right now. They even admitted they are pretty much disregarding the defense so they can upgrade the offense.

[brooks_quichenick]

This isn't the same regime that trotted out yuni and kotsay out there simply disregarding defense in big games

 

They are doing the same exact thing right now. They even admitted they are pretty much disregarding the defense so they can upgrade the offense.

 

It's not the same. That team was bad all around defensively. Right now the Brewers have an elite defensive outfield, plus one of the best young defensive shortstops. Pina is no slouch behind the plate either. Average 1st base defense + above average at 3rd. Below average at 2nd will not kill this team imo.

[JosephC]

This same regime thought Brad Miller could still play shortstop and the -255.4 UZR/150 clearly demonstrates that he cannot.

[jjfanec]

This isn't the same regime that trotted out yuni and kotsay out there simply disregarding defense in big games

 

They are doing the same exact thing right now. They even admitted they are pretty much disregarding the defense so they can upgrade the offense.

 

It's not the same. That team was bad all around defensively. Right now the Brewers have an elite defensive outfield, plus one of the best young defensive shortstops. Pina is no slouch behind the plate either. Average 1st base defense + above average at 3rd. Below average at 2nd will not kill this team imo.

 

Exactly. This team has a terrific of and has shown willingness to make defensive subsistions late in games. They value defense so they obviously think shaw won't be a complete trainwreck - maybe due shifts, or arcia, or thinking shaw looks ok out there. Why do people here just assume Stearns has lost his mind. Maybe he is wrong and that will sure but maybe he has seen more of shaw than us and knows a little more about the makeup of the team. Full disclosure I dont love this move but I am willing to let it play out before acting like I know it won't work

[ClosetBrewerFan]

The vast majority of the criticism isn't over trading away Phillips/Lopez. Both were expendable.

 

What most don't like about the move is trading for a thirdbaseman instead of a middle infielder, forcing Shaw to play secondbase.

 

Had we traded those two guys for say Asdrúbal Cabrera or Dozier instead of Moustakas, the criticism wouldn't be the same.

This ^

 

There were comparable players out there who could play 2B instead of this mess of an infield we have now. Maybe the Mets did not want any of the Brewers prospects. We may never know, but it seemed like this value was as good if not better than what the mets got for Asdrubal.

[MrTPlush]

This isn't the same regime that trotted out yuni and kotsay out there simply disregarding defense in big games

 

They are doing the same exact thing right now. They even admitted they are pretty much disregarding the defense so they can upgrade the offense.

 

It's not the same. That team was bad all around defensively. Right now the Brewers have an elite defensive outfield, plus one of the best young defensive shortstops. Pina is no slouch behind the plate either. Average 1st base defense + above average at 3rd. Below average at 2nd will not kill this team imo.

 

It doesn't matter what the rest of the team can or cannot do. If Travis Shaw is worth -20 runs at 2B it is 20 more runs given up. No ones good defense is going to help Shaw cover ground and turn plays at 2B.

 

The Brewers know this. They believe the offensive gain will be more than what Shaw is going to botch at 2B defensively. That is what matters...not Cain's great CF defense.

[SRB]

No kidding. Plus, talk about hyperbole. Everyone was "aghast"? at losing Medeiros, but you never saw a single person praise him? I think you need to read closer. Of lower the importance of what YOU'VE seen. He was a power lefty arm, a former first round pick and he was performing well in AA.

 

That said, almost everyone I've seen has been fine with who we've given away. Our 40 man crunch has just been significantly lessened with the last few trades. It's as if Stearns is taking guys who are on the bubble and using them(or guys who are blocked as Phillips is) to upgrade this team.

 

The reason anyone MIGHT have been "aghast" like a 1950's actress in a terror movie, is that we're putting Shaw at 2nd base. And all I've seen there is skepticism about how he'll do there given he's NEVER PLAYED IT.

 

And finally, this is in response to another poster who was upset that people are "putting forth opinions" before we actually see what Shaw does and that we should just sit back and have a beer and enjoy the game....well, then lets shut down the board. If this board isn't hear to discuss opinions and speculate and exchange ideas on, then what's really the point?

 

It's called a generalization/figurative language...

[SRB]

The notion that Moustakas couldn't best a 1/$15 million deal this offseason is crazy. Let's be realistic, he's going to be a free agent and he's likely going to get $80 million or more, perhaps nine figures, in the offseason.

 

The only reason he ended up back in Kansas City is because Boras finally miscalculated by holding out for a mega-mega-deal too long.

 

Finally? Hasn't he done this several times in the past few years? Boras gets the biggest deals done...but he's also hurt some clients when he's trying to reset the market and the teams just aren't biting. And I don't see a guy who coming off a very good year who gets 6.5 million "easily" getting 80 million when you have Machado, Donaldson and Beltre available at the same position he plays.

Yea, no way Moustakas is getting some 80-100 plus million dollar contract this offseason.

 

He's not even 30 yet, he will hopefully put up some nice numbers in a half-season outside Kansas City, there may be significantly more demand for 3B this offseason, and he was being projected to get that much going into last offseason. Perhaps we should all wait and see.

[HarveysWBs]

The vast majority of the criticism isn't over trading away Phillips/Lopez. Both were expendable.

 

What most don't like about the move is trading for a thirdbaseman instead of a middle infielder, forcing Shaw to play secondbase.

 

Had we traded those two guys for say Asdrúbal Cabrera or Dozier instead of Moustakas, the criticism wouldn't be the same.

This ^

 

There were comparable players out there who could play 2B instead of this mess of an infield we have now. Maybe the Mets did not want any of the Brewers prospects. We may never know, but it seemed like this value was as good if not better than what the mets got for Asdrubal.

 

By some metrics, Moustakas is well above average defensively at 3B, won’t have to be a gold glover with Arcia ranging over from short, 1B is average defensively, and our current rotation of second basemen butchered their share of plays while our defense was still among the league’s best. I’m not sure how a below-average second baseman in the field makes that infield a mess. It was solid before, and Shaw would have to be an all-time butcher to turn it into “a mess.” But if you’re that embarrassed, I can see why you’re in the closet...

[Boomer5]

This same regime thought Brad Miller could still play shortstop and the -255.4 UZR/150 clearly demonstrates that he cannot.

 

This is a major issue. We tend to be a normal team making normal moves where some work and some don’t but let’s not pretend our FO has some magic formula. CC and DJ make it work. Somehow.

 

I don’t have a huge problem with the trade in a vacuum but here is my POV such as it is:

 

1. Boras is not accepting his side of the option of Moose plays like we hope therefore it is a rental.

 

2. Shaw is not a viable 2B and never will be much like Miller was not a SS.

 

3. Phillips seems destined to play a lot in KC and will likely be a 20 HR GG type OF who probably won’t make a lot of contact. AKA a slightly better version of Broxton. I’m not sure what that would mean to Milwaukee but he sure isn’t a throw in type of player.

 

4. I can absolutely see Moose being a bomber for us down the stretch. Miller Park should be fabulous for him.

 

5. I thought we were going with the “guys who just hit HRs arent valuable” theory until Stearns trades for one then somehow we now like them. PS: HR hitters are indeed very valuable. More to the point it’s in our teams identity.

 

6. Stearns isn’t done. Shaw can not possibly be our regular 2B going forward in 2018. Traded? Maybe but then we have no 3B for 2019. We will go to the wire to land a starter because we just lost Suter and Peralta is both human and coming up to his innings. Nelson can’t be counted on in 2018. The rest of our guys are just guys.

[Lathund]

Not to divert too much from the topic, but almost wonder if it makes sense for Arcia to hit somewhere in the lineup other than right before the pitcher. Having two "sure outs" back-to-back is sort of a killer. Then again, hitting Arcia anywhere else could be inning killers just as easily.

 

I'm always a proponent of batting the pitcher 8th, so I'd have Arcia 9th.

[Brewer Fever]

Somehow while the Brewers had Arcia down in AAA and were trotting out the likes of Miller, Orf, Sogard, Perez and Saladino at 2B and SS, they maintained their firm grasp on the MLB lead in defensive runs saved. It's surely not because those guys weren't committing errors or have amazing range like Arcia has. It's all grounded in the defensive shifting and positioning program the Brewers have in place. There's no other explanation other than the Brewers simply have the best defensive advance scouting operation in baseball right now. That's what gives them the confidence to put Shaw at 2B. They'll have him lined up in the right places just like they had with that collection of mediocre middle infielders they've been trotting out there.

 

Simply put, the Brewers aren't expecting Shaw to have amazing range at 2B. They haven't been getting that prior to this move. They're putting the onus on their own defensive advance scouting to continue to put their 2B where the ball is hit.

[coolhandluke121]

The notion that Moustakas couldn't best a 1/$15 million deal this offseason is crazy.

Perhaps we should all wait and see.

 

Big improvement in your second try. With Donalson, Beltre, and Machado available, the 3B market could be even tougher than it was last year. Nothing crazy about thinking a guy with a career OBP just north of .300 might have to settle for $15m.

[coolhandluke121]

They're putting the onus on their own defensive advance scouting to continue to put their 2B where the ball is hit.

 

Good point. They have shown a tremendous ability to improvise and to understand all the nuances of a situation. For example, Moustakas is a low OBP guy, but his contact rate will be perfect in the 6 hole for the Brewers, so his OBP alone doesn't tell the full story.

 

Some other nuances and improvisations they've taken advantage of very successfully include getting the most out of their staff by using the bullpen creatively, signing a 32 year old all star because they had good reason to believe he was aging well, acquiring 2 all star outfielders despite having Braun and Santana, selling high on their #1 prospect, prioritizing great defense at the most important positions while minimizing the damage at weak positions, and using extreme shifts to get every advantage they can. A lot of things that looked bad upon "first inspection" (read: knee-jerk reaction) turned out great.

 

I gotta give them the benefit of the doubt even though I wouldn't have made this deal. It's not like Shaw is going to play 8+ innings per game at 2b, or anywhere near that. This really isn't any worse than the 1b/corner outfield logjam, which has proven to be a positive.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

 

3. Phillips seems destined to play a lot in KC and will likely be a 20 HR GG type OF who probably won’t make a lot of contact. AKA a slightly better version of Broxton. I’m not sure what that would mean to Milwaukee but he sure isn’t a throw in type of player.

 

5. I thought we were going with the “guys who just hit HRs arent valuable” theory until Stearns trades for one then somehow we now like them. PS: HR hitters are indeed very valuable. More to the point it’s in our teams identity.

 

Aside from wanting to post right after coolhandluke, I think these two points are interesting.

 

Maybe Phillips becomes that player, but he wasn't going to do it in Milwaukee, and other teams valued that accordingly. KC gets some credit for getting that value, but I just think that means this trade can work for both parties. It doesn't have to be zero sum.

 

I also like that DS doesn't seem committed to just one strategy. He may have an overriding philosophy about player value, but he is willing to think laterally and avoid dogmatic thinking. I like that about him. He doesn't need to win according to one set of rules. He is willing to look at all sorts of angles, and I think that is important in Milwaukee.

[MrTPlush]

[sarcasm]I don’t think I can handle another non-Stearns move. Trading young controllable talent for old not controllable talent.[/sarcasm]

[82brewcrew82]

[sarcasm]I don’t think I can handle another non-Stearns move. Trading young controllable talent for old not controllable talent.[/sarcasm]

[sarcasm]Eh, decades of losing is healthy for perspective[/sarcasm]

[Thurston Fluff]

The rampant pessimism at this trade is incredible - even for this board. We lose two guys with no legitimate future in Milwaukee for a guy who makes the Crew better, by the simple fact of not having to play a bunch of guys (Miller, Perez, Villar) who seem to be generally hated by most here. I'm gonna wait and see what happens, as opposed to putting forth opinions as fact, that seems to be happening - Shaw will be a butcher at 2B, Moose isn't very good, etc.

There's a natural aversion to losing guys/changing things for fans who follow teams too closely. Case in point, I don't recall ever seeing a single person on here praise Kodi Medeiros as a prospect, and suddenly lots of people were aghast at losing him for Soria.

Come on

 

The vast majority of the criticism isn't over trading away Phillips/Lopez. Both were expendable.

 

What most don't like about the move is trading for a thirdbaseman instead of a middle infielder, forcing Shaw to play secondbase.

 

Had we traded those two guys for say Asdrúbal Cabrera or Dozier instead of Moustakas, the criticism wouldn't be the same.

 

From what I've read Asdrubal Cabrera is a butcher on defense. Just because someone is listed as a second baseman doesn't mean they are better playing it than someone who plays third well be hasn't played second. We needed offense at second. A guy who hits well and fields well is going to cost more than someone who looks to be a fourth outfielder and a average at best relief pitcher. This move will help a lot if Shaw can hold his own at second and doesn't mortgage the future in the process. The worst outcome is the added offense is a push with the decreased defense and all it cost was a couple spare parts.

[bork]

I do wonder if Moustakas will start taking lots of grounders at 2B over the next week or two. He did play 65 games at SS 11 years ago in the minors, which is 65 more middle infield games than Shaw has ever seen. And he's open to it.

[Eye Black]

 

[SRB]

The notion that Moustakas couldn't best a 1/$15 million deal this offseason is crazy.

Perhaps we should all wait and see.

 

Big improvement in your second try. With Donalson, Beltre, and Machado available, the 3B market could be even tougher than it was last year. Nothing crazy about thinking a guy with a career OBP just north of .300 might have to settle for $15m.

 

It's absolutely crazy and delusional to think that Moustakas could not beat 1/$15 million on the open market. Sorry if I was unclear.

[LouisEly]

But there was NO market for Moustakas last year, which is why he's making $6.5 mil this year. I don't think it's completely crazy to think he'd do the 15 mil option. If not, he may still be interested in returning for a reasonable multi-year.

 

The biggest reason there wasn’t a market was that he had draft pick compensation tied to him, an obstacle he won’t have to overcome this offseason.

A comp pick doesn't turn $80M into $5.5M. It will turn $80M in to $55M, but not $5.5M.

 

Moustakas is a career .306 OBP guy. That doesn't get $80M. Apples and oranges, but Chris Carter hit 41 HRs in MKE and despite the strikeouts had a .321 OBP and he got a one year $3.5M deal.

[adambr2]

I would guess Moose gets somewhere around 4 years, $50M.

 

While I think he'll have a better market than he had this spring, I think the days of guys like him landing 9 figure contracts are pretty much over for right now.