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Kevin Gausman


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He and Shoop will be far more expensive than the proposed Machado deal.

 

Why?

 

Schoop is going to be about a 1.5 WAR player (being generous here) and Gausman is about a 2.3 WAR player. It maybe a little bit more expensive but not far more expensive. You are looking at Ray and Ortiz plus a lottery ticket instead of Phillips and Ortiz plus a lottery ticket. I wouldn't call that far more expensive.

 

No way. Not a chance. Schoop is red hot now and everyone knows how good Gausmam would be with a defense. Both have team control left. Machado as great as he is was a rental.

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No way. Not a chance. Schoop is red hot now and everyone knows how good Gausmam would be with a defense. Both have team control left. Machado as great as he is was a rental.

 

Ok you still haven't explained why both would cost more. Mostly just speculation. Looking at Gausman currently he is a #3 type pitcher you are basically gambling on him making a huge turnaround from what he is in Baltimore.

 

While Schoop is hot that doesn't take away the fact that he strikes out at about 20% of the time and he walks less than Villar and Arcia. Think about that for a moment Schoop walks less than Arcia. Do you really think Schoop is worth that much just because he has a hot bat and has team control left?

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No way. Not a chance. Schoop is red hot now and everyone knows how good Gausmam would be with a defense. Both have team control left. Machado as great as he is was a rental.

 

Ok you still haven't explained why both would cost more. Mostly just speculation. Looking at Gausman currently he is a #3 type pitcher you are basically gambling on him making a huge turnaround from what he is in Baltimore.

 

While Schoop is hot that doesn't take away the fact that he strikes out at about 20% of the time and he walks less than Villar and Arcia. Think about that for a moment Schoop walks less than Arcia. Do you really think Schoop is worth that much just because he has a hot bat and has team control left?

Obviously Machado's the more valuable player for the rest of the year, but the team control is a huge difference. ZiPS has Schoop at 1.0 WAR for the remainder of the season and Gausman at 0.8 WAR, while Machado is 1.9 WAR. So you're getting about the same amount of WAR for this year, but then you get another full season from Schoop and two additional full seasons from Gausman. It's far from perfect math, but it shouldn't be that unreasonable to expect 3 2/3 seasons of Schoop and Gausman over 3 playoff runs to cost more than 1/3 of a season of Machado over 1 playoff run.

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Obviously Machado's the more valuable player for the rest of the year, but the team control is a huge difference. ZiPS has Schoop at 1.0 WAR for the remainder of the season and Gausman at 0.8 WAR, while Machado is 1.9 WAR. So you're getting about the same amount of WAR for this year, but then you get another full season from Schoop and two additional full seasons from Gausman. It's far from perfect math, but it shouldn't be that unreasonable to expect 3 2/3 seasons of Schoop and Gausman over 3 playoff runs to cost more than 1/3 of a season of Machado over 1 playoff run.

 

I am not saying they won't cost more it is just that it is not all that much more than what the Brewers offered for Machado. If you replace Phillips with Ray and I think you have the value of those extra years covered. To me that is not that much more than what Machado brought in.

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Obviously Machado's the more valuable player for the rest of the year, but the team control is a huge difference. ZiPS has Schoop at 1.0 WAR for the remainder of the season and Gausman at 0.8 WAR, while Machado is 1.9 WAR. So you're getting about the same amount of WAR for this year, but then you get another full season from Schoop and two additional full seasons from Gausman. It's far from perfect math, but it shouldn't be that unreasonable to expect 3 2/3 seasons of Schoop and Gausman over 3 playoff runs to cost more than 1/3 of a season of Machado over 1 playoff run.

 

I am not saying they won't cost more it is just that it is not all that much more than what the Brewers offered for Machado. If you replace Phillips with Ray and I think you have the value of those extra years covered. To me that is not that much more than what Machado brought in.

 

I dont want Ray as part of that trade...keep phillips in and add another piece like Stokes

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I dont want Ray as part of that trade...keep phillips in and add another piece like Stokes

 

I don't think Stokes moves the needle all that much. If you wanted to center the package around Ortiz and Phillips you would need to add in someone like Nottingham and Carmona plus a lottery ticket (Ponce, Carlos Rodriguez or Ward).

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I’ll put my guess for both schoop and gausman at woodruff Ortiz Phillips and stokes.

 

Eeeek that is steep. If you are going to put Woodruff in the trade I think you can remove Ortiz. Woodruff Phillips Stokes and Carlos Rodriguez. I think the Brewers want to trade Phillips and Ortiz both or one is going to be in a trade either during the deadline or this off season.

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I guess with Gausman, you could end up coming out ahead in the deal if he pitches well to close out the season. With Anderson, Davies, Guerra, Chacin, Nelson, Peralta, Burnes and Woodruff as potential starters next season (assuming Nelson is back to at least a close approximation of his former self), Gausman could potentially be traded again after the season to restock some of the prospects lost (or one of the others could).
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I wonder if we are still in serious talks with Baltimore now that we traded for boys. If not I'm guessing it was a whoever flinched first for him and schoop. Otherwise gausman is probably who the talks are about.
Remember what Yoda said:

 

"Cubs lead to Cardinals. Cardinals lead to dislike. Dislike leads to hate. Hate leads to constipation."

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I think Gausman may be my top choice for the Brewers to acquire. There's a decent chance he'd be better than Archer, or at least close, at a much lower cost.

I don’t think the Orioles will give him away, but I think he is probably one of the best available options when you consider the combination of cost and potential impact. I believe he has the ceiling of a higher upside starter at a potentially moderate cost. Obviously you are taking a risk that you can get his talent to actualize into results, but I think it could be a big payoff if it works out.

Not just “at Night” anymore.
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Per Jason Rollinson:
A source has told me that the #Pirates and Orioles have progressed on a potential deal involving Kevin Gausman and Brad Brach.
"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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Per Jason Rollinson:
A source has told me that the #Pirates and Orioles have progressed on a potential deal involving Kevin Gausman and Brad Brach.

 

Wasn't Brach already traded to Atlanta?

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Wasn't Brach already traded to Atlanta?

He was.

The tweet was 9 hours ago so that explains Brach.

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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From The Athletic article by Robert Murray titled, Brewers have the capacity to add an elite starter, but their willingness to pay the price is uncertain...

 

Milwaukee and Baltimore were engaged in serious trade talks Friday afternoon, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported. Gausman was a name speculated by Rosenthal, but it’s unknown whether his name was brought up in discussions. However, as of Sunday morning, talks had cooled, a source with direct knowledge of the situation told The Athletic.
Not just “at Night” anymore.
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From The Athletic article by Robert Murray titled, Brewers have the capacity to add an elite starter, but their willingness to pay the price is uncertain...

 

Milwaukee and Baltimore were engaged in serious trade talks Friday afternoon, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported. Gausman was a name speculated by Rosenthal, but it’s unknown whether his name was brought up in discussions. However, as of Sunday morning, talks had cooled, a source with direct knowledge of the situation told The Athletic.

 

Could be the asking price for Schoop/Gausman was too high, so they pulled the trigger on Moose that night and decided to pursue another SP elsewhere (Harvey, perhaps).

Gruber Lawffices
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From The Athletic article by Robert Murray titled, Brewers have the capacity to add an elite starter, but their willingness to pay the price is uncertain...

 

Milwaukee and Baltimore were engaged in serious trade talks Friday afternoon, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported. Gausman was a name speculated by Rosenthal, but it’s unknown whether his name was brought up in discussions. However, as of Sunday morning, talks had cooled, a source with direct knowledge of the situation told The Athletic.

 

Could be the asking price for Schoop/Gausman was too high, so they pulled the trigger on Moose that night and decided to pursue another SP elsewhere (Harvey, perhaps).

Or the reporting was just in accurate.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave
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From The Athletic article by Robert Murray titled, Brewers have the capacity to add an elite starter, but their willingness to pay the price is uncertain...

 

Milwaukee and Baltimore were engaged in serious trade talks Friday afternoon, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported. Gausman was a name speculated by Rosenthal, but it’s unknown whether his name was brought up in discussions. However, as of Sunday morning, talks had cooled, a source with direct knowledge of the situation told The Athletic.

 

Click bait article to fill space...that’s what it seemed to me.

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