Josh Donaldson

[HarveysWBs]

Josh Donaldson

 

To be clear, this post is entirely of my own speculation; it is based on no news, whispers, or even a vague hint. Since this is silly season, however, I thought I might try and connect a couple dots (even if they are, admittedly, very far apart).

 

Let’s imagine, for a moment, that despite turning over every rock and looking behind every locker room door, the Brewers are unable to add a bat before the end of the month…

 

What I know: Josh Donaldson is on the last year of his contract for a team that isn’t going anywhere right now, but has a bright future ahead. That future includes Vladimir Guerrero Jr., perhaps the most-anticipated player in recent memory, in the sense that his hit tool is receiving higher scouting grades than pretty much anyone in history, and he has Hall of Fame bloodlines to boot. Guerrero plays third base, which also happens to be Donaldson’s only position.

 

I also know the Brewers could use a bat in the middle of their lineup. Their (by all accounts serious) pursuit of Manny Machado demonstrates that they know it, too. An upgrade at the middle infield position would also be nice.

 

What’s that? I just said Donaldson plays only third? Stay with me.

 

What I think: The Brewers are a creative bunch. They are willing to take chances on guys who are overlooked, miscast, and underutilized. The example of Jesus Aguilar stands out strongly in this case, and there is no need for me to rehash that here. We could also include Travis Shaw in this discussion, as a corner infielder who is overlooked in a bigger organization with better-known prospects surrounding him. The Brewers took a chance, and for their trouble, they got a middle of the order mainstay who also happens to be quite the organizational “good soldier,” doing plenty of media work for the club and gutting it out on the field despite some nagging injuries. By all accounts, he seems to be a great teammate and someone who is willing to go the extra mile.

 

The Brewers are also a team that uses their players rather creatively on defense. Jesus Aguilar gets some innings at 3B, Ryan Braun became a 1B this year, Eric Thames gets corner outfield duty from time to time. Oh, and they shift their infield a lot, which isn’t exactly news in this day and age, but it is interesting to note the Crew were relatively early adopters of the strategy, and it has been a part of the organizational ethos for some time. Interesting for our purposes here, because who ends up seeing considerable time on the right side of the infield during these shifts? Your Mayor of Ding Dong City.

 

I also think the Brewers might already be playing around with the idea of having Shaw see time at 2B on a more full-time basis. There was the much-ballyhooed news that Shaw got practice reps there semi-regularly (which was, in Stearns and Counsell fashion, dismissed by referencing his role in defensive shifts). This speculation is harder to dismiss, perhaps, in light of suggestions that Brewers scouts have been sniffing around Mike Moustakas, another player who is a seemingly-exclusive third baseman.

 

What I don’t think: I don’t think the Brewers would trade for Moustakas. Recent reports indicate their interest was minimal and perfunctory, and if the Royals are asking the Brewers to pay a premium for Moustakas’ career highs last year, that doesn’t strike me as the type of thing David Stearns is interested in.

 

What I worry about: Let’s take these in order of significance. 1) Donaldson isn’t exactly, you know…playing baseball right now. He’s been fighting nagging injuries for the better part of the last two years, and this year is the worst of all. Shoulder problems delayed his start to the year, and now his lower body is hurting, and there isn’t much of a timetable for his return, beyond the hope of an early-August timeframe. If there is one thing that evaporates my castle in the clouds the fastest, it is the idea that Donaldson never gets on the field this year, which would obviously preclude any sort of trade.

 

2) He doesn’t clear waivers. Donaldson is making good money on the last year of his deal, but it would be prorated for rest of season, so many contending clubs would have no problem ponying up the roughly $8 mil he would be owed ROS (I’m open to being corrected on the math here). If other contenders aren’t scared off by his injury history or his contract, the Crew may be out of luck when the Jays are forced to pull him back due to a claim. Heck, if the Brewers are still hanging around the Central race in a few weeks, why wouldn’t Theo Epstein throw in a claim for him, just to wreck the Brewers’ chances?

 

3) He craters—if he comes off the injury swinging a hot bat, he could entice Stearns to make this move, and I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if he re-injured his calf Or, since we only have him for a month and a half (and, God-willing, some postseason baseball), a cold spell from a notoriously streaky hitter would suddenly make this deal look bad, depending on what we are forced to give up. I’ll leave it to better minds to speculate on a fair return (waiver deals are rare, so comparables are difficult, especially with such varying examples as last year’s Verlander trade involving some considerable prospects on the one hand, and the Larry Walker to the Cardinals trade in 2004 that was completed for a song, if I recall).

 

Bottom line, if you were disappointed about not getting to see Machado in a Brewers uniform this summer, I’d say the closest alternative that is even remotely within the realm of possibility is Donaldson, who had a .300 average and 22 HRs in August and September last year. Those numbers would sure as heck play in the middle of our lineup, and if Shaw moves successfully to 2B, immediately upgrades our lineup to:

 

Cain

Yelich

Donaldson

Aguilar

Shaw

Braun/Thames

Arcia (assuming call-up in the next week or two)

Pina

Pitcher

 

Yes, please. You heard it here, first!

[nate82]

I think Donaldson is going to take a discount or a 1-year prove it deal with the Jays next year and the AL has the DH so he can play there.

 

Everything I have heard from Donaldson is that he wants to stay in Toronto.

[HarveysWBs]

I think Donaldson is going to take a discount or a 1-year prove it deal with the Jays next year and the AL has the DH so he can play there.

 

Everything I have heard from Donaldson is that he wants to stay in Toronto.

 

Yeah, I forgot to mention that. There has been speculation to that effect, but if I’m Donaldson, I’m pushing hard to get on the field and prove I can play defense so as to avoid that very scenario. Unless the Jays believe the future is now, I don’t see much reason for them to want him back, when Vlad the Younger is going to need ABs and DH production isn’t exactly hard to find, especially at the level needed for a club in a soft rebuild.

 

And, of course, trading him does not preclude his return in free agency.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Do people think he can still provide a big impact, and that his bat is worth moving Shaw to 2nd? Is he just a big name at this point?

[HarveysWBs]

Guess we can close the book on this...

[nate82]

I think Donaldson is going to take a discount or a 1-year prove it deal with the Jays next year and the AL has the DH so he can play there.

 

Everything I have heard from Donaldson is that he wants to stay in Toronto.

 

Yeah, I forgot to mention that. There has been speculation to that effect, but if I’m Donaldson, I’m pushing hard to get on the field and prove I can play defense so as to avoid that very scenario. Unless the Jays believe the future is now, I don’t see much reason for them to want him back, when Vlad the Younger is going to need ABs and DH production isn’t exactly hard to find, especially at the level needed for a club in a soft rebuild.

 

And, of course, trading him does not preclude his return in free agency.

 

I don't believe Donaldson is going to be very effective at 3B defensively over the life of his next contract which will basically be his last contract he will sign (long term that is). You might get 1-2 years of good defense but that is about it and then he is going to have to be a DH or 1B. At some point Donaldson is going to be a DH and I think it is going to be sooner rather than later.

 

I also believe that the Jays are not going to trade Donaldson and will just keep him. Not the smartest move but they are not going to get much for him if they do trade him.