Twins

[KeithStone53151]

That is simply incorrect. The link below shows every deadline deal last year. The day with the most deals was naturally July 31st. That tells me it absolutely does not become less likely that we make a major acquisition the longer this goes on.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2017/7/18/15989724/2017-mlb-trade-deadline-rumor-tracker

Not sure what you are objecting to. Showing me all trades by all MLB teams says nothing about DS and his nature. I see no history or indication that says DS is going to be pushed into a trade just because of a deadline. Sure, if the right guy falls into their lap at the deadline then I'm sure he will make that call but typically that will be a smaller move like Jeffress was last year. The tendency is for teams to overpay right at the deadline and I just don't see DS getting involved in a bidding war because said deadline is looming. Frankly that is simply correct.

 

I'm specifically objecting to the idea that it is less likely that the Brewers make a major acquisition before the deadline. Stearns has made selling trades on deadline day plenty, this is his first time being a serious buyer. And this team is much different than the team last year. Much more complete, and much more talented. Rentals make a lot more sense this year at the right price, and not all rentals go up in asking price as the deadline approaches...I would actually argue more rentals go down in value.

 

Specifically looking at the 2b market, it's just as likely that teams with a rental 2b lower their asking price(as the blue jays have with happ) as they absolutely have to move them or get nothing. 2B market is a buyers market, there are more 2b options than teams that need help at 2b. Unless the Twins rattle off 3 or 4 wins in a row and Cleveland loses ground, they will 100% trade Dozier for whatever the best offer is...which probably means lowering their asking price.

 

I'll agree that it generally isn't in Stearns nature to overpay, but at the same time he surprised everyone with his aggression in the Machado sweepstakes. He didn't win, but he came close and his offer was probably an overpay from a value standpoint...just not as much of one as the Dodgers offer.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

https://www.mlb.com/news/predictions-for-2018-mlb-trade-deadline/c-287131076?partnerId=ed-12915931-1086168613

 

He predicts Dozier to Red Sox. Escobar to DBacks.

 

Cabrera and Wheeler to Brewers.

 

All the more the reason to grab Escobar while we are at it. Saladino can be the main backup at SS and 2B.

 

I would be shocked if we didn't grab someone, and when the dust settles I suspect Saladino will be the primary backup at SS/2b with Miller and possibly Villar or Perez gone.

I wouldn't be shocked at all. We saw this play out very similarly last trade deadline and after the Yelich/Cain acquisitions. DS isn't going to overpay for anyone under any circumstances. We might get Swarzak/Walker level moves for extra rule 5 pieces but the longer this goes the more likely that there isn't a major acquisition.

 

I would consider Swarzak a major acquisition last year. He was terrific last year, and solidified the pen.

 

Would you consider todays Soria deal a major acquisition? I'd say the price was pretty substantial, and he was probably right up there with Britton and Familia on the list of the top relievers available.

[82brewcrew82]

I would consider Swarzak a major acquisition last year. He was terrific last year, and solidified the pen.

 

Would you consider todays Soria deal a major acquisition? I'd say the price was pretty substantial, and he was probably right up there with Britton and Familia on the list of the top relievers available.

Fist of all we were talking in context of right a the deadline. Swarzak wasn't that.

 

I don't in any way think of Swarzak as a needle mover type of trade. Did he put us over the top and pave the way to a playoff run? No, he didn't. That doesn't mean it was a bad trade, it just wasn't a significant trade.

 

To that point, I don't think that Soria is significant either. Again, no issue with the trade and he makes the team better, no doubt. He doesn't change the landscape at all for me though. I don't think there was anywhere near the demand for him that there was for Britton.

[markedman5]

Gibson with another excellent start tonight vs the Red Sox.

[mlloyd10]

Gibson/Dozier for Ortiz/Gatewood/Diplan

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Gibson/Dozier for Ortiz/Gatewood/Diplan

 

Gatewood is in Milwaukee getting his knee checked out. Not looking good. Doubt he's going to be in an deal.

[NYChez]

After getting swept by lowly Kansas City, they’ve taken four in a row at Toronto and Boston and have gotten back within 7 games. And they play Cleveland, who’ve they done well against, 7 times in the next two weeks. Does this impact their desire to trade?

[Roderick]

After getting swept by lowly Kansas City, they’ve taken four in a row at Toronto and Boston and have gotten back within 7 games. And they play Cleveland, who’ve they done well against, 7 times in the next two weeks. Does this impact their desire to trade?

 

Last year they were 4 games under .500 and 4.5 games behind the last wildcard playoff spot and they traded away players. Then they went and made the playoffs. So they probably have it in their minds they can come back again this year and make the playoffs.

[jjfanec]

7 games is a ton but with all the games they have left against Cleveland I guess they could stand pat. Say they both have 60 games left if the Indians just plays .500 ball at 30-30 the Twins would have to go 37-23 just to tie. The Indians play only 13 games against teams with winning records and 6 of those are against the Ray's. Hard to see them playing less than .500 ball. Twins should sell. The best thing for the GM and ownership would be to lose a couple in a row.

[JohnBriggs12]

I could see the Twins taking Santana and/or Villar in a deal for Dozier if they think they still have a shot. They won't part with Gibson though if that's the case.

[Boomer5]

Gibson/Dozier for Ortiz/Gatewood/Diplan

 

Gatewood is hurt, but that is a reasonable offer.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Gibson is the starter I'd want unless the brewers shoot for the moon and bring in a unicorn somehow (degrom, madbum). He has been really good and they'd have him for 2019 as well.

[jjfanec]

Why would the twins trade gibson? Next year in that division they should really be in the hunt bc no one outside Cleveland is good.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Why would the twins trade gibson? Next year in that division they should really be in the hunt bc no one outside Cleveland is good.

 

They probably said the same thing to start this year, and then they realized they weren't very good either...they are a team caught in between because Sano and Buxton haven't become anything close to what they were hoping for.

[jjfanec]

Why would the twins trade gibson? Next year in that division they should really be in the hunt bc no one outside Cleveland is good.

 

They probably said the same thing to start this year, and then they realized they weren't very good either...they are a team caught in between because Sano and Buxton haven't become anything close to what they were hoping for.

 

Oh I get it but I still would be surprised if they sold a pitcher with another year.

[KeithStone53151]

Is it really necessary for every GM to beat their chest and act like their guy is the second coming of Nolan Ryan or Griffey? Gibson has been somewhere between average and bad for most of his career...and his having his best year at age 30. But apparently, they need to be blown away to deal the guy because he has a year of team control left? Exactly how much value does this yahoo think he has in Gibson? I'd rather the Twins keep him and get 10 cents on the dollar next deadline. I find this GM speak to be incredibly obnoxious, almost as if they are begging to not be taken seriously...

 

 

I'll add that Gibson hasn't even been THAT good. 3.4 ERA, 3.8 FIP. Most of his ratios are aroudn the same as last year, except his k rate has jumped a bit. He's allowing more hard contact than normal, and his GB rate is a career low. BABIP is also a career low. Definitely a candidate for some regression...definitely not someone that a team needs to be blown away to trade.

[82brewcrew82]

Is it really necessary for every GM to beat their chest and act like their guy is the second coming of Nolan Ryan or Griffey? Gibson has been somewhere between average and bad for most of his career...and his having his best year at age 30. But apparently, they need to be blown away to deal the guy because he has a year of team control left? Exactly how much value does this yahoo think he has in Gibson? I'd rather the Twins keep him and get 10 cents on the dollar next deadline. I find this GM speak to be incredibly obnoxious, almost as if they are begging to not be taken seriously...

 

I would think a GM would be borderline negligent if they said anything different.

[Boomer5]

Is it really necessary for every GM to beat their chest and act like their guy is the second coming of Nolan Ryan or Griffey? Gibson has been somewhere between average and bad for most of his career...and his having his best year at age 30. But apparently, they need to be blown away to deal the guy because he has a year of team control left? Exactly how much value does this yahoo think he has in Gibson? I'd rather the Twins keep him and get 10 cents on the dollar next deadline. I find this GM speak to be incredibly obnoxious, almost as if they are begging to not be taken seriously...

 

 

I'll add that Gibson hasn't even been THAT good. 3.4 ERA, 3.8 FIP. Most of his ratios are aroudn the same as last year, except his k rate has jumped a bit. He's allowing more hard contact than normal, and his GB rate is a career low. BABIP is also a career low. Definitely a candidate for some regression...definitely not someone that a team needs to be blown away to trade.

 

Isn’t that what we do with our players?

 

What do you think a still in his prime controllable starting pitcher would go for in July and why would a GM not seek maximum value for such a rare commodity?

[KeithStone53151]

Is it really necessary for every GM to beat their chest and act like their guy is the second coming of Nolan Ryan or Griffey? Gibson has been somewhere between average and bad for most of his career...and his having his best year at age 30. But apparently, they need to be blown away to deal the guy because he has a year of team control left? Exactly how much value does this yahoo think he has in Gibson? I'd rather the Twins keep him and get 10 cents on the dollar next deadline. I find this GM speak to be incredibly obnoxious, almost as if they are begging to not be taken seriously...

 

 

I'll add that Gibson hasn't even been THAT good. 3.4 ERA, 3.8 FIP. Most of his ratios are aroudn the same as last year, except his k rate has jumped a bit. He's allowing more hard contact than normal, and his GB rate is a career low. BABIP is also a career low. Definitely a candidate for some regression...definitely not someone that a team needs to be blown away to trade.

 

Isn’t that what we do with our players?

 

What do you think a still in his prime controllable starting pitcher would go for in July and why would a GM not seek maximum value for such a rare commodity?

 

Again, I don't think Gibson is that valuable. He's having a career year, which in reality is only a decent season...which is at least partially due to BABIP luck and likely to have some regression. I don't blame a GM for trying to get max value, but saying something like that is stupid. Sure if the Brewers were in a similar team situation, Stearns could say we'd need to be blown away to give up Chacin...but he would sound similarly stupid. Might as well not say anything. I generally just find all the posturing and GM speak through the media to be silly and pointless, I can't recall seeing Stearns make similar comments.

 

I guess my main point, this is the type of comment you should make when you want to field offers for Degrom or Realmuto. Not the 40th best starting pitcher in baseball that's been generally lucky to be posting such good results and only has 1+ seasons of team control.

[brewerfan82]

It's just semantics. "Blown away" means "we don't have to trade him now so you're going to have to overpay to get him". The overpay is relative to what the guy's worth, so it doesn't matter if it's used with an average player or a superstar player.

[jerichoholicninja]

Gibson has been horrible his whole career before this season. I wouldn't be jumping at getting him if I were the Brewers but I would be doing everything I could to cash in on him if I were the Twins. He's likely to be terrible again next year and they'll have gotten nothing in return if they don't trade him and they'll still have a terrible pitcher.

[bill hAll Star]

Gibson has been horrible his whole career before this season. I wouldn't be jumping at getting him if I were the Brewers but I would be doing everything I could to cash in on him if I were the Twins. He's likely to be terrible again next year and they'll have gotten nothing in return if they don't trade him and they'll still have a terrible pitcher.

 

Gibson changed up his pitch mix mid-season last year and had an excellent 2nd half.

 

He started mixing in his slider and curveball more often and used his changeup less all while increasing his velocity on his fastball a little bit. He's a guy that I feel isn't one that is getting by with a luck and this may really be who he is for at least a little while.