Some 'undervalued' '05 draft guys

[CarolinaTommy]

Past the hoopla of the first round picks, there are some solid prospects that I think could make interesting drafts in June. These are some guys that I have seen play personally over the past few years and have intrigued me, despite not being obvious first round selections

 

James Avery RHP - Niagara University - Extremely interesting prospect, in my opinion. He has all of the tools to be a first round draft pick, and yet he flies beneath the radar of so many scouts and publications. I saw him pitch in the Cape League this summer. He struggled, and he has struggled in the college season against mediocre competition. 6'1", 200 lbs, good body. Good, over-the-top delivery. Throws downhill with arm-side run with his fastball, which I saw at 89-94 MPH for 3 innings. The makings of a good change-up, and a curveball, which is still undeveloped, but I think the potential is there for a good one. Really can struggle with his command, but he is a raw Canadian that could elevate himself to top prospect status soon.

 

Brent Lillibridge IF/OF - University of Washington - Interesting tool set. He's athletic, runs well, and has wiry-strength. He reminds me of a dilluted version of Alfonso Soriano. He has a long swing (uses a long bat) which causes for strike outs, but he can put a charge into a ball when he makes contact, although he'll probably have to shorten up some. He can probably run a 6.5-6.6 40-yard dash, he has pop in his bat, and he can handle many different position. He struggles some in the infield now, but with his speed and average arm strength, he can play CF.

 

Cesar Carillo RHP - University of Miami - His stock is going to go up by June, so it may be a moot point to talk about him being undervalued presently. He's probably going to anchor this top college team and do well. Undersized, small frame, but he's got very good arm strength and he knows how to pitch. Pedro Martinez-type body. He can throw mid-upper nineties. If he can be had outside of the first round, he'd be a great pick-up, but I don't see that happening. Very underrated!!!!!

 

Jacoby Ellsbury CF - Oregon State University - I normally do not mention these types of prospects. Ellsbury is presently a speed baseball player that slaps the ball around and causes problems with his running skills, but I have seen him play in 7+ games and I just got a feeling with him that he could become a Steve Finley-type player in 5-8 years.

 

Mike Costanzo 1B/3B/RHP - Coastal Carolina University - Strength player with a very good body. He takes a good rip at the ball at the plate and he has plus arm strength. We'll see if he'll be able to handle professional pitching as a positional player, if not, he's got a shot at being a relief pitcher. Good body and good power tools with some good athleticism mixed in there -- interesting guy!

 

Chris Robinson C - University of Illinois - He's just a solid catching prospect. Good catch and throw skills and he can handle the bat. He's an under the radar guy but could develop into a useful catcher down the line. Not too much upside.

 

Chris Nicoll RHP - University of California-Irvine - Does not have spectacular pitching tools that will knock you out. If he were 6'4", he'd be gaining a lot more attention. Very loose arms, athletic body actions. Pitches at 87-91 MPH and has very good command of three solid pitches. Good slider. The ball comes out of his hand very well, little effort or tension. He can deal and he has some projection in him, despite being a 6'1" guy.

 

Graham Taylor LHP - Miami University - OK, I may be biased with these Ohio baseball players, but he could be a steal as a lefty relief guy. He's going to start for Miami University this year, most likely, and be underwhelming at 85-88 MPH with a traditional 3/4 arm slot, but he can come down from the side and be very tough against left handers. Very tough slider from the side-arm slot he can use. He's got a mechanical delivery, not very fluid, which could drive some away from him. Draft him, sign him, move him to the bullpen as a situational lefty and he could have value. He might slip past the draft in '05 and make a fantastic senior sign next year.

 

Alan Horne RHP - University of Florida - We all know the story with him. Top talent in high school, turns down big bucks to go college. Has Tommy John surgery, falls off the radar screen. He was throwing pretty well this summer, but I am sure looked only a fraction of what he was in high school. I had him at 88-91 MPH with his fastball and he was throwing a good curve, but without any "bite". My rationale is that he's a good value. He'd be a GREAT value if he were a senior this year, which I thought he would be, but apparently he's listed of JR status on the UF website.

 

Anthony Gressick IF/OF/RHP - Ohio University - I'd be interested in other scouts opinions on Gressick because I have never really heard them. He had Tommy John surgery and couldn't pitch in 2004, but he still DH'ed and hit the heck out of the ball. He's going to get dogged on because of his size, but he's a fantastic two-way player and arguably the best player in the MAC this year. His freshman year I had him at 87-90 MPH with his fastball. He's got a "sneaky quick" fastball that he can get by guys. He's also a great hitter with athleticism to play 3B, or even a corner outfield position LF/RF. He's one of my favorite college baseball players. He just does a lot of things well, and comes up big when his team needs him. I may be biased as a former student at Ohio U and that I have seen him play frequently.

 

Matt Long RHP - Miami University - I think he's a very talented 6'5", 200 lbs RHP, but things just have not yet materialized for him. I saw him as a freshman and he was throwing a very easy 88-91 MPH with a loose arm and easy throwing action. He knocked off a few good, hard curveballs. He really struggled, I thought he looked a little unsure of himself on the mound and he made some mistakes, which I think had a domino-effect that unraveled him. He showed poor command, but he has some very good raw material. He threw pretty tall and kind of reminded me of Aaron Sele, but without the devastating curve that he once had. Had arm surgery and may not be 100% this year, but could be a really good value for someone willing to take a chance on him as a junior sign.

 

Those are just some guys too look at in round 3-10 that may often be overlooked. I personally like them...just guys that I am interested in and could make good "value" picks.

 

Cesar Carillo very likely is not around by the 3rd round, but I just wanted to jump on his bandwagon before everyone else does. I don't know how BA rated him, but I'd be willing to bet he's lower than where he should be.

 

I'd also like to mention that I'm a big fan of Ryan Mullins LHP - Vanderbilt University. I see him as a cross between Jeremy Sowers and Mark Mulder (two of my favorite pitchers!). He can come across his body a little much sometimes, but he's great, in my opinion. Great life on his pitches, projection, pitchability, tall and left-handed...all of the ingredients to intensely excite me! I'd make him a top 10 overall pick if it were up to me, but that's just my opinion!

[colbyjack]

Nice post Tommy. Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts.

 

I agree with you that Carillo is extremely underrated. I look forward to watching him pitch a week from tomorrow on Fox Sports Net vs. Florida (it's a Friday game, so I'm assuming it's Carillo vs. Horne, another member on this list).

 

Speaking of Horne, I'm pretty sure he medical red-shirted one of his years at Mississippi, which makes him a junior at UF as far as athletic eligibility is concerned. He would have been draft-eligible last summer as a red-shirt sophomore even if he wouldn't have played at a JC/CC.

[foamboy1]

Nice post, CT. We'll have to watch where these guys are projected as the draft approaches.

[CarolinaTommy]

Patrick, btw, your tape is in the mail. I apologize for the horrible delays.

[colbyjack]

No problem Tommy.

 

BTW, BA is expanding it's draft coverage, adding a draft notebook while including top 10 draft eligible prospects. They kick off this new feature with a look at the top 10 catchers (as part of the notebook covering the Weaver/Drew/Boras situation):

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...ebook.html

 

Tommy, they've got Illinois' Chris Robinson as a projected 3rd rounder, and their 9th best draft eligible catcher. Good eye http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

[EdgarDiazRocks]

I plan to go to quite afew UW games this year and watch Lillibridge play along with all the other PAC-10 guys. I really want to see Oergon State's Dallas Buck to see what all the hype is about.

 

UW has started out terrible by getting swept by Irvine and they don't play a home game 'till March. One note of interest is that Lillibridge has been playing SS and leading off so far this season.

 

From what I've seen, it looks like 2b and the 2 hole would be a better fit.

[CarolinaTommy]

EdgarDiaz, Buck is an interesting pitching prospect. I need to get a subscription again to Baseball America to get their opinions on some of these guys (now that spring is coming around). I saw him match up with Mark McCormick this summer.

 

I think if you look up "sinker-slider pitcher" in the '05 college baseball dictionary, you would see Buck. He's got some very nasty sink and run on his fastball (comfortably 88-92) and he's got a wicked slider off of that pitch. He looked deadly against righties on the day I saw him. He's a strong guy, too. Plays football. Scott Erickson is my best comparison. He looked extremely difficult to hit off with the wooden bat the way he aggressively worked in and out with his sinker/slider combo.

[CarolinaTommy]

Thanks for the heads up on BA, Patrick. I really oughta fork out the money for a subscription.