2018-07-22: Dodgers (Wood) at Brewers (Suter) 1:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 11-2]

[The stache]

Strawman argument. I never said Kemp would continue hitting like he has. I simply implied that we'd be a better team in a better position if Kemp were here and Braun wasn't, when you take into consideration the commitment to Braun through 2020 and Kemp just through 2019.

 

Also, 2016 Braun is long gone, that player isn't coming back, especially given how many injuries he deals with at this point in time -- that isn't going to improve with age.

 

Hmm, I bet a lot of people in Los Angeles were saying the same thing about Kemp prior to the season, looking at several seasons of abysmal production prior to 2018. "The old Kemp can't come back".

 

Kemp's season high point came June 6th. He was hitting .353 with a .983 OPS. Since then? 35 games played, Kemp is hitting .246 with 3 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR and 21 RBI, slashing .308 OBP/.398 SLG/.706 OPS.

 

Since June 6th, Braun and his horrible 2018 hitting has hit .250 with 4 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR and 11 RBI, slashing .268/.475/.743.

 

Braun's OPS since June 6th is 37 points higher than Kemp's. We were 37-25 on June 6th, and have gone 18-20 since.

 

How, exactly, would Kemp have helped us during this cold streak? He's fallen off a cliff, offensively, morphing back into the fringe Major Leaguer he's been for the past six seasons. Braun, as bad as he's been, as still outperformed Kemp for the last month and a half.

 

And, tell me, what major injuries has Braun suffered? Some back issues. Clearly, he's still hitting the ball as hard as he ever has. The thumb? He's been dealing with that for several seasons, and after injections, he's bounced back significantly. With all those injuries, he's been better than Kemp, of late.

[adambr2]

I never said luck wasn't part of the game. I just said bad luck shouldn't be used as a crutch for lack of production. Either you produce or you don't, and more often than not Braun hasn't. There's no such thing as moral victories, otherwise the Brewers would have the best record in baseball.

 

Braun's 2018 numbers projected over a full 162 game, even with all the bad luck:

 

75 runs scored, 32 doubles, 3 triples, 23 home runs, 79 RBI.

 

Simple projections don't consider the occasional hot streak, which Braun is long overdue for. The slash line is ugly, but to say that Braun has not produced is simply inaccurate. 23-25 home runs, and 80 RBI...the vast majority of Major League hitters would consider that a decent campaign. We're used to so much more from Braun, and he's still making strong contact, so we're baffled by his considerable drop off from 11 prior seasons. I'm betting he is, too.

 

You're projecting Braun's stats out to a full 162 games? Even though

 

1) No one plays 162 games anymore.

2) Braun doesn't play anywhere near 162 games.

 

That's insanely deceiving and biased.

 

Eric Thames is on pace for 42 HR this year over 162 games. Keon Broxton is on pace for 11.3 WAR over 162 games. Just to illustrate how misleading that kind of a projection model is.

[The stache]

Simple projections don't consider the occasional hot streak, which Braun is long overdue for. The slash line is ugly, but to say that Braun has not produced is simply inaccurate. 23-25 home runs, and 80 RBI...the vast majority of Major League hitters would consider that a decent campaign.

 

Which planet is it where Braun is playing 162 games in ONE season? Maybe on Mars....

 

I never said that Braun was going to play 162 games. What I was showing, however, was that Braun's production when he has played hasn't been as bad as everybody thinks.

[82brewcrew82]

Nice win last night but not much has changed. The team is still trending the wrong way. I hope they don't overreact in the trade market.

[markedman5]

Brewers were certainly not the most talented team going into,the season......not sure how it's possible to win at a high level with all of the injuries continuing to occur.

[82brewcrew82]

So far in this thread I've read that Broxton isn't as bad as I think, the rotation isn't as bad as I think and Braun isn't as bad as I think. You'd THINK that this team was winning some games or we have hit the mother load of bad luck.

[adambr2]

Speaking of Braun, he's making Aguilar look like quite a defensive star at 1st today. Woof.

[The stache]

So much for taking the series. And we get to see these guys again a week from now...in Los Angeles. That should be fun.

[PinaMadness]

I had been thinking for the past few weeks of going to this game since the Dodgers are my secondary team. I'm so glad I didn't. Roof is closed, no Aguilar, and an almost certain loss after four innings.

[xisxisxis]

I never said that Braun was going to play 162 games. What I was showing, however, was that Braun's production when he has played hasn't been as bad as everybody thinks.

 

He's our 6th best hitter now and that isn't bad as he's still in the range of acceptable (not for his salary, but that's a sunk cost), but compared to even Braun from 2 years ago he is declining and will soon be our designated PH. That's a lot of $ for a PH. I would like to see a lot more of him batting at the back end of the good hitters instead of the middle and we should just shoot the bottom third of the order, starting with Hernan Perez and going up the OBP ladder...

[sveumrules]

Not exactly a confidence-inspiring rotation, but it's lining up to be Chacin, Guerra, Peralta, Miley, Anderson going forward. So no need for Suter or Woodruff, at least for a few times through.

 

Prior to today Brewers starting pitchers were 13th in FIP based WAR & 7th in runs allowed based WAR. Their struggles have been overstated, especially considering they were projected around the 20th best rotation prior to the season.

My guess is that those numbers have a) been trending the wrong direction and b) they have been somewhat shielded by being taken out of games early. It may not be the worse rotation in the league, but it isn't a good one.

 

Average MLB start: 5.46 IP

Average MKE start: 5.31 IP

 

Brewers rotation ranks by month FIP based WAR/runs allowed based WAR:

April: 16th/8th

May: 19th/20th

June: 5th/6th

July: 7th/5th

[xisxisxis]

So far in this thread I've read that Broxton isn't as bad as I think, the rotation isn't as bad as I think and Braun isn't as bad as I think. You'd THINK that this team was winning some games or we have hit the mother load of bad luck.

 

Regression to the mean is my new enemy...

[82brewcrew82]

Average MLB start: 5.46 IP

Average MKE start: 5.31 IP

 

Brewers rotation ranks by month FIP based WAR/runs allowed based WAR:

April: 16th/8th

May: 19th/20th

June: 5th/6th

July: 7th/5th

Yet here we are........again.

[PinaMadness]

See you tomorrow. At least we miss Scherzer and Strasburg next series.

[NYChez]

Position player pitching alert.

[markedman5]

2 terrible outings in a row for Williams

[wildcat83]

Position player pitching alert.

 

Jacob Barnes???

[Bulldogboy]

This much is clear 1-20 this roster is good enough to compete with anyone in the league. Problem is 20-25 are so bad that it makes winning tough. This team is short at second and catcher along with a starter and two pen arms. Stearns watching Rome burn is maddening.

[wildcat83]

See you tomorrow. At least we miss Scherzer and Strasburg next series.

 

Not if they get rained out today... would be just our luck.

[adambr2]

Sorry for anyone here who wasted their money to head out to Miller Park and witness this one.

[The stache]

I never said that Braun was going to play 162 games. What I was showing, however, was that Braun's production when he has played hasn't been as bad as everybody thinks.

 

He's our 6th best hitter now and that isn't bad as he's still in the range of acceptable (not for his salary, but that's a sunk cost), but compared to even Braun from 2 years ago he is declining and will soon be our designated PH. That's a lot of $ for a PH. I would like to see a lot more of him batting at the back end of the good hitters instead of the middle and we should just shoot the bottom third of the order, starting with Hernan Perez and going up the OBP ladder...

 

I agree with everything you just said.

 

Didn't Braun have some success when he was batting lower in the lineup? Fifth, I believe. His batting fourth today is due to matchups and injuries, but when Aguilar and (hopefully) Shaw are back and healthy, I'd have no issue with Brauny batting sixth. I haven't seen him play enough lately, but I have to think that he's pressing slightly. How could he not, given his contact rate, and lack of results. A 100 pt drop off from your career BAbip has to make any great hitter press.

 

The Brewers are not as bad as they've been as late. They're not as good as they were early. Braun isn't as bad as he's been this year. I'm just hoping that Stearns keeps everything in perspective as the 31st trade deadline draws closer.

[MrTPlush]

This much is clear 1-20 this roster is good enough to compete with anyone in the league. Problem is 20-25 are so bad that it makes winning tough. This team is short at second and catcher along with a starter and two pen arms. Stearns watching Rome burn is maddening.

 

It’s hard to make trades early even if you want to. Teams usually refuse to trade early unless an obvious overpay.

[brewmann04]

Injures have not helped at all that for sure but the rotation was never going to be one that was going to scare teams that was playing them. I don't think DS will look to pull off any big trades.

[wildcat83]

Love the lady trying to start a let’s go Brewers chant... Never loose faith, even when nobody joins in...

[NYChez]

Does allowing 10 baserunners in two innings subject Williams to Colorado Springs bullpen roulette?