2018-07-22: Dodgers (Wood) at Brewers (Suter) 1:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 11-2]

[adambr2]

Matt Kemp for Ryan Braun. Who says no?

 

The Dodgers

[adambr2]

Well, there's another one. Kemp sucks!

[folly412]

Not exactly a confidence-inspiring rotation, but it's lining up to be Chacin, Guerra, Peralta, Miley, Anderson going forward. So no need for Suter or Woodruff, at least for a few times through.

[82brewcrew82]

That looked like something just snapped.

[wildcat83]

I don’t think they will put Burnes in the rotation this year, but flipping roles for Suter and Woodruff probably should happen.

 

That won’t solve anything. Woodruff isn’t that good

 

He’s arguably our second best pitching prospect still. He hasn’t been great in the majors this year, but to say he isn’t any good is a very short sighted comment.

[SomewhereInTime]

Luck is a big part of baseball.....ignoring it is just silly

 

This reminds me of the constant back and forth we have on Chris Archer.

 

"Archer is a lot better pitcher than his numbers show."

 

"But he hasn't been."

 

"Well, he SHOULD be."

 

Luck matters, but when a player is constantly underperforming his peripherals it's time to dig a little deeper and look for reasons why instead of just assuming that its going to turn around over a long enough period of time.

 

Here's the reason, most people can't accept the randomness of the universe. They want to attribute everything to a reason. It's a game with plenty of luck involved. Hitters try to hit a ball as hard as they can, sometimes those balls are hit right at someone, it can happen over and over again and a previous result has no bearing on a future result.

[PinaMadness]

I never said luck wasn't part of the game. I just said bad luck shouldn't be used as a crutch for lack of production. Either you produce or you don't, and more often than not Braun hasn't. There's no such thing as moral victories, otherwise the Brewers would have the best record in baseball.

[adambr2]

I don’t think they will put Burnes in the rotation this year, but flipping roles for Suter and Woodruff probably should happen.

 

That won’t solve anything. Woodruff isn’t that good

 

He’s arguably our second best pitching prospect still. He hasn’t been great in the majors this year, but to say he isn’t any good is a very short sighted comment.

 

Hard to say how good Woodruff is when he's never had any extended shot at this level.

[The stache]

Also, 2.5 WAR is a good player. WAR isn't the end all be all but it's really odd that you would hitch your wagon to WAR to knock Kemp all the while Braun has a total 1.4 WAR all of 2017 and 2018.

 

And, Kemp has had a total 0.3 WAR for all of 2017 and 2018.

 

No, WAR is hardly the be-all, end-all. But for a quick gauge of how a player has performed over time, it's pretty good. Braun's 4.4 WAR in 2016 is 1.7 more wins than Kemp has been worth over the last seven seasons combined, including 2018.

 

Keep believing that Kemp is going to continue hitting the ball like he has been. History would suggest otherwise.

[82brewcrew82]

Before today Suter had given up more then 3 runs twice in the last 2 months. He had given up 1 or 2 runs 6 times.

Even so, After today he has a 4.80 ERA. He isn't good.

[wildcat83]

Luck is a big part of baseball.....ignoring it is just silly

 

This reminds me of the constant back and forth we have on Chris Archer.

 

"Archer is a lot better pitcher than his numbers show."

 

"But he hasn't been."

 

"Well, he SHOULD be."

 

Luck matters, but when a player is constantly underperforming his peripherals it's time to dig a little deeper and look for reasons why instead of just assuming that its going to turn around over a long enough period of time.

 

Well, the fact that it was a 108 mph exit velocity line drive helps me believe it was bad luck.... or poor launch angle....

[bigredrobbo]

I never said luck wasn't part of the game. I just said bad luck shouldn't be used as a crutch for lack of production. Either you produce or you don't, and more often than not Braun hasn't. There's no such thing as moral victories, otherwise the Brewers would have the best record in baseball.

 

 

Up until just recently, they did - the NL at least.

[trwi7]

How dumb is Dave Roberts putting Muncy back at 3rd? And Muncy "rewards" him right away.

[82brewcrew82]

I don’t think they will put Burnes in the rotation this year, but flipping roles for Suter and Woodruff probably should happen.

 

That won’t solve anything. Woodruff isn’t that good

 

He’s arguably our second best pitching prospect still. He hasn’t been great in the majors this year, but to say he isn’t any good is a very short sighted comment.

He hasn't been all that bad.

[adambr2]

Also, 2.5 WAR is a good player. WAR isn't the end all be all but it's really odd that you would hitch your wagon to WAR to knock Kemp all the while Braun has a total 1.4 WAR all of 2017 and 2018.

 

And, Kemp has had a total 0.3 WAR for all of 2017 and 2018.

 

No, WAR is hardly the be-all, end-all. But for a quick gauge of how a player has performed over time, it's pretty good. Braun's 4.4 WAR in 2016 is 1.7 more wins than Kemp has been worth over the last seven seasons combined, including 2018.

 

Keep believing that Kemp is going to continue hitting the ball like he has been. History would suggest otherwise.

 

Strawman argument. I never said Kemp would continue hitting like he has. I simply implied that we'd be a better team in a better position if Kemp were here and Braun wasn't, when you take into consideration the commitment to Braun through 2020 and Kemp just through 2019.

 

Also, 2016 Braun is long gone, that player isn't coming back, especially given how many injuries he deals with at this point in time -- that isn't going to improve with age.

[The stache]

I never said luck wasn't part of the game. I just said bad luck shouldn't be used as a crutch for lack of production. Either you produce or you don't, and more often than not Braun hasn't. There's no such thing as moral victories, otherwise the Brewers would have the best record in baseball.

 

Braun's 2018 numbers projected over a full 162 game, even with all the bad luck:

 

75 runs scored, 32 doubles, 3 triples, 23 home runs, 79 RBI.

 

Simple projections don't consider the occasional hot streak, which Braun is long overdue for. The slash line is ugly, but to say that Braun has not produced is simply inaccurate. 23-25 home runs, and 80 RBI...the vast majority of Major League hitters would consider that a decent campaign. We're used to so much more from Braun, and he's still making strong contact, so we're baffled by his considerable drop off from 11 prior seasons. I'm betting he is, too.

[wildcat83]

Has Davies started another rehab assignment yet, or still shut down?

[SomewhereInTime]

I never said luck wasn't part of the game. I just said bad luck shouldn't be used as a crutch for lack of production. Either you produce or you don't, and more often than not Braun hasn't. There's no such thing as moral victories, otherwise the Brewers would have the best record in baseball.

 

Would there be another word to use when you have a hitter with great career numbers and good peripherals this season, who isn't having the normal results he's accustomed to? Have you ever watched or played baseball before? Are hard linedrives a bad thing?

[sveumrules]

Not exactly a confidence-inspiring rotation, but it's lining up to be Chacin, Guerra, Peralta, Miley, Anderson going forward. So no need for Suter or Woodruff, at least for a few times through.

 

Prior to today Brewers starting pitchers were 13th in FIP based WAR & 7th in runs allowed based WAR. Their struggles have been overstated, especially considering they were projected around the 20th best rotation prior to the season.

[brewmann04]

i understand that Braun has not produced but damm they were two hard hit outs. I have never been sold on this rotation but what do they really have to lose inserting Woodruff into the rotation?

[xisxisxis]

Simple projections don't consider the occasional hot streak, which Braun is long overdue for. The slash line is ugly, but to say that Braun has not produced is simply inaccurate. 23-25 home runs, and 80 RBI...the vast majority of Major League hitters would consider that a decent campaign.

 

Which planet is it where Braun is playing 162 games in ONE season? Maybe on Mars....

[MrTPlush]

Not exactly a confidence-inspiring rotation, but it's lining up to be Chacin, Guerra, Peralta, Miley, Anderson going forward. So no need for Suter or Woodruff, at least for a few times through.

 

Prior to today Brewers starting pitchers were 13th in FIP based WAR & 7th in runs allowed based WAR. Their struggles have been overstated, especially considering they were projected around the 20th best rotation prior to the season.

 

Yah, the rotation isn’t bad. With a good offense it can win a lot of games.

 

We will see what Wade Miley has, but that could be a nice improvement over Suter.

[folly412]

Has Davies started another rehab assignment yet, or still shut down?

 

Supposed to be throwing a live bullpen in the next day or two. Not sure if they would do another if that goes well or send him right out to a rehab assignment.

[82brewcrew82]

Not exactly a confidence-inspiring rotation, but it's lining up to be Chacin, Guerra, Peralta, Miley, Anderson going forward. So no need for Suter or Woodruff, at least for a few times through.

 

Prior to today Brewers starting pitchers were 13th in FIP based WAR & 7th in runs allowed based WAR. Their struggles have been overstated, especially considering they were projected around the 20th best rotation prior to the season.

My guess is that those numbers have a) been trending the wrong direction and b) they have been somewhat shielded by being taken out of games early. It may not be the worse rotation in the league, but it isn't a good one.

[MrTPlush]

HRs and RBIs? I’m pretty sure Chris Carter is somewhere around here!