Why isn't Burnes starting?

[istanbultaye]

I've seen it mentioned in a couple threads now that Wily Peralta was pitched out of the bullpen often early on, however, he only had 1 bullpen appearance in 2012, his rookie year, and after that he didn't see any time in the bullpen until 2017, when it was clear that he would not make it as a starter for the Brewers.

[FVBrewerFan]

Hard to argue, Barnes and Williams just cant be counted on.

 

Ok, I'll try. I think both have shown periods of being dominant (Williams more than Barnes), the issue is there are days they don't have it and unfortunately, we have a manager who doesn't react to signs that a pitcher is losing it/doesn't have it that day. I'm not sure all RP respond to sitting for a half inning then coming back out to pitch. When you have 4-5 batters knocking them around, maybe you're 2 batters late for taking action. Williams put 6 batters on on July 20th in 1 IP and lucked out of it with only giving up 2 runs. On the 22nd (2 games later) he cruises through 1 IP and then he comes out for a 2nd inning and that huge dinosaur sized crap hits the fan... he's now been hit hard in 2 games since the break and 1 of them could have been avoided or minimized with a little thought from the manager. I don't think there's anything wrong with either Barnes or William, they just need better "management".

 

To me, this is the ideal management most times.

 

If someone like Williams comes in in a 4-2 game and put 2 guys on base - yes, take him out.

 

People are wringing their hands over Barnes', Jennings', Williams', etc's ERAs...because if they come in in a game that we already trail 7-2 or in a tie game that they do happen to quickly give up a 2 run HR (doesn't happen often)...leave them in! Save the good (or any) bullpen for later.

 

Whatever calculation Counsell/Stearns have I think tells them not to bother with a game that you're losing 5-2. Yes, we won a bunch early in the year and still can, but you don't play your best cards on the table when you're way behind. Hope for a miracle but pack it up and save your best for a game that you are leading or tied.

 

The July 20 game you mention, we were tied in the 7th and he blew it...fine. I don't see us coming back on Kenley and the other good Dodgers' bullpen. Leave Williams in and pray he can get out of it. If not, you've saved your bullpen for a more important game. After Williams gave up a run in the 7th, we had a 12% chance of winning

 

The July 22nd game was even more ideal. We're down 6-2 and Williams is one of our garbage bottom of the pen guys we have at the time. Pray he gets through 2-3 innings to save your bullpen and you somehow make a comeback. If he gets blown up, your chances of winning were 13% (according to bbref) when he entered the game anyways.

 

If Counsell is bringing in Williams with a lead and leaving him in too long - then we have a problem.

 

That's what I mean by "they can't be counted on." They're fine in games we're winning or losing by a lot. Just speaking for myself, and how I feel when one of them comes into a game. Like last night, 6-2 lead and Barnes just missed giving up a HR that would made it 6-4 suddenly. Could have, but didn't, yea I get it. But Barnes/ Williams are just too inconsistent to be trusted in close games. That said, there are times when there's no other options- and I get that too. Hopefully Burnes is the already the 4th option for late inning relief in close games.

[sveumrules]

Looking more & more like the reason Burnes wasn't starting last year was because his curve/change are not as developed as his fastball/slider.

[adambr2]

I'm trying to recall how his pitch mix as a reliever last year compared to what he's thrown this year. There has to be something different.

[sveumrules]

I'm trying to recall how his pitch mix as a reliever last year compared to what he's thrown this year. There has to be something different.

 

2018: 58.7% 4 seam 34.2% slider 6.8% curve 0.2% sinker 0.2% change up

2019: 56.9% 4 seam 23.0% slider 9.9% sinker 5.5% curve 4.7% change up

[FVBrewerFan]

Looking more & more like the reason Burnes wasn't starting last year was because his curve/change are not as developed as his fastball/slider.

 

I've always believed a starting pitcher needs either a reliable change or curve. Period. FB/slider combo isn't enough speed variance to keep a batter off-balance. But I figured these are professional coaches that know far more than I do. I still believe that, but scratching my head why none of these guy seem to learn a good off-speed pitch in the system. Bring them up anyhow and then wonder why they fail. Or struggle, if we want to use that word instead.

 

Thing is, a change-up really isn't hard to throw. And there's more than one way to throw it. Is there not a coach in all the land that can't teach these guys how to throw one?

[Brew crew 92]

I'm trying to recall how his pitch mix as a reliever last year compared to what he's thrown this year. There has to be something different.

 

2018: 58.7% 4 seam 34.2% slider 6.8% curve 0.2% sinker 0.2% change up

2019: 56.9% 4 seam 23.0% slider 9.9% sinker 5.5% curve 4.7% change up

 

Should be in AAA throwing 30% change 30% curve 20% sinker 10% 4-seam 10% slider. And told we don’t care how many hits or runs are givin up.

[LouisEly]

The problem has been the fastball. -9.3 runs above average. If you normalize it and assume an even number of pitches per pitch, it's the same as the curve and the change.

[rickh150]

He's one of the best pitchers on the staff...... my guess is that his May will be much better with poorer opponents and more experience under his belt. The teams he has faced have above avg offenses.

[tmwiese55]

I'm trying to recall how his pitch mix as a reliever last year compared to what he's thrown this year. There has to be something different.

 

2018: 58.7% 4 seam 34.2% slider 6.8% curve 0.2% sinker 0.2% change up

2019: 56.9% 4 seam 23.0% slider 9.9% sinker 5.5% curve 4.7% change up

 

Should be in AAA throwing 30% change 30% curve 20% sinker 10% 4-seam 10% slider. And told we don’t care how many hits or runs are givin up.

 

Or to have started using them up here in these starts and see what happened. He dropped a first pitch curve for a strike I noticed yesterday. Just needs to throw enough to keep them honest. And usually the curve isn't going to be swung at right now.

 

That said, he's missed his spots so much on fastballs he was probably going to struggle anyway but the hitter is less likely to tee off on that missed fastball if they don't know it's coming like they do now.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Let's chill out with the personal snipes and the told you so crap.

[Roderick]

Let's chill out with the personal snipes and the told you so crap.

 

 

This is a revived thread. Unless you deleted posts, I don't see anything bad on the new April posts.

[Thurston Fluff]

He's one of the best pitchers on the staff...... my guess is that his May will be much better with poorer opponents and more experience under his belt. The teams he has faced have above avg offenses.

 

 

He may have the talent to be one of the best pitchers on the staff but he sure isn't performing like it. While it is true he has faced several very good offences that is no excuse for how bad he's been. The other starters have faced the exact same offenses and aren't doing as poorly as Burnes is. I think he can turn it arund but at some point he's going to have to get past the 4th inning if he wants to remain a starter in the majors.

[rickh150]

He's one of the best pitchers on the staff...... my guess is that his May will be much better with poorer opponents and more experience under his belt. The teams he has faced have above avg offenses.

 

 

He may have the talent to be one of the best pitchers on the staff but he sure isn't performing like it. While it is true he has faced several very good offences that is no excuse for how bad he's been. The other starters have faced the exact same offenses and aren't doing as poorly as Burnes is. I think he can turn it arund but at some point he's going to have to get past the 4th inning if he wants to remain a starter in the majors.

[/quote)

 

 

 

 

April 15. Concerned? Sure. He should get another four at least..... regardless of what happens. Have a quick hook, sure, but let the guy pitch. It's April and he has talent. Villar was given months before sitting him down (and then starting him again in the spring).

[Brew crew 92]

With Burnes now being optioned down, the crew must feel his off speed stuff and or FB location needs work in a less stressful workplace. I’m happy they didn’t put him in the pen, his future is in starting not relieving, and I don’t think he’ll be down more than 5-8 starts.