Why isn't Burnes starting?

[trwi7]

Suter likely on dl for a while this time, Guerra and Peralra back so rotation is set. I believe Burnes will be a starter long term but they need him in the pen this year. Hard to argue, Barnes and Williams just cant be counted on.

 

The rotation is set in the sense that they have 5 guys in it. Here's my problem. Burnes out of the pen is probably going to limit him to 110-120 innings this year. So are they going to let him go 200 innings next year or are they going to have to watch his innings again? I don't think there's much of an argument that he's one of the top 5 starters on the roster currently, so if that's the case, he should be in the rotation.

 

There's also the entertainment factor to me. There's no entertainment in watching Anderson try to keep his pitch count under 100 in 5 innings or watch Miley walk as many as he strikes out. Burnes brings legitimate excitement about what he could possibly do now and what he could become in the future.

[sveumrules]

The fact that this organization thinks it's better to trot Suter out there every 5 days over Burnes or Woodruff blows my mind.

 

Suter is a gimmick pitcher with no stuff. Woodruff and Burnes are young with legitimate stuff, and nothing left to prove in the minors. They both have the make up of at least mid rotation major league starter, yet we are using them in the bullpen and using Brent Suter in the rotation over both of them. It makes zero sense.

 

Coming into this season Burnes had never pitched above AA, Woodruff had a small MLB sample with mixed results & Suter had a larger (though still small) MLB sample with good results. Suter also had superior AAA results compared to Woodruff. I would imagine this is why Suter had first crack at a rotation spot to begin the season, because he had earned it by virtue of his performance.

 

Despite his lack of stuff, we are still 9-9 in games started by Suter this season. In 5 of those losses we scored 2 runs or less, so kinda hard to pin the blame on Suter for those. Not too bad for what is ostensibly your 5th starter.

[phnxcrew]

I’ve given up on trying to understand why the Brewers do what they do with their pitching prospects. Aaron Wilkerson started a game not long ago. While Burnes sat in the pen.

 

It just always seems like the Brewers would rather go with the Wade Mileys and Brent Suters of the world over our top pitching prospects. Just look at how they've treated Brandon Woodruff. I'll never understand it.

 

What exactly has Brandon Woodruff done to make you think he should be starting? He's been quite the disappointment compared to some of these other pitchers coming up in my eyes.

 

Well, there’s a line of Thinking that when a guy is pulled Back and forth from the minors To the majors and starting every two months then throwing relief twice a week then pitching in Colorado that he’s not going to succeed. He’s a young power pitcher and needs consistency. I’d have Peralta, Burnes, and woodruff all in the rotation now. We can’t score so let them learn.

[adambr2]

Suter likely on dl for a while this time, Guerra and Peralra back so rotation is set. I believe Burnes will be a starter long term but they need him in the pen this year. Hard to argue, Barnes and Williams just cant be counted on.

 

The rotation is set in the sense that they have 5 guys in it. Here's my problem. Burnes out of the pen is probably going to limit him to 110-120 innings this year. So are they going to let him go 200 innings next year or are they going to have to watch his innings again? I don't think there's much of an argument that he's one of the top 5 starters on the roster currently, so if that's the case, he should be in the rotation.

 

There's also the entertainment factor to me. There's no entertainment in watching Anderson try to keep his pitch count under 100 in 5 innings or watch Miley walk as many as he strikes out. Burnes brings legitimate excitement about what he could possibly do now and what he could become in the future.

 

The first thing you listed is probably my biggest issue with this.

 

You want to get at least 150 innings out of Burnes this year. If you know he's going to be in your rotation next year, you want him the entire year. That isn't going to happen if you're dialing back his innings now, and he's in no danger right now of hitting a limit even if you're starting him.

 

This is going to look awfully foolish at this time next year if Burnes is your best starter all season and you end up having to shut him down the first week of September in a pennant race.

 

My hope is that when Albers returns, Burnes moves to the rotation but this certainly sounds like an all year thing now. Peralta is going to inevitably need to be shut down or moved to the pen, by the way.

[FVBrewerFan]

I agree guys, just pointing out reality, and where they're coming from. Personally. I don't like this Bucks model of being sort of competitive. I want Hader, Burnes. Peralta, and Woodruff in the rotation of it's my choice. And guess what, they may even win more games this year already doing that, even though it would be done with the future in mind.

 

While we're at it, bring back Arcia, Santana, and Nottingham. Let Phillip's play.

Delaying the rebuild drives me crazy. Watching Kratz, Perez, Orf, Broxton, etc. Play drives me crazy.

[sveumrules]

Here's my problem. Burnes out of the pen is probably going to limit him to 110-120 innings this year. So are they going to let him go 200 innings next year or are they going to have to watch his innings again?

 

The first thing you listed is probably my biggest issue with this.

 

You want to get at least 150 innings out of Burnes this year.

 

Burnes had 145 innings in 2017. Even if he pitches less innings this year he should be fine for 175-180 in 2019.

 

Only 15 pitchers hit 200 IP in 2017 & I'd imagine less will hit that number this year. I'd guess the Brewers internal projections don't have many pitchers reaching that threshold.

[MrTPlush]

if I recall correctly once you hit an inning mark going less in the future is meaningless. Though you probably wish he could pitch up close to 180 this year so he could really be prepared next year for a full load.

 

Also entertainment value? What is entertaining is winning. Chase Anderson has been good after early season struggles and Miley has been pretty good in his few starts. No where to really put him at this moment in time.

[monty57]

This sounds strikingly similar to Hader: "We're still looking at him as a starter, we just need the help this year in the bullpen to get us to the playoffs." Then the offseason hits and we hear that he's far too valuable in the bullpen to mess with success, and he might not be a good starter anyhow.

 

I still believe that starters are more valuable than relievers, so I still want our talented pitching prospects to get an opportunity to be MLB starters. If they can't cut it, then move them to the pen, but give them the chance to start first.

 

I also think that Suter's best role is as a long man/spot starter. He seems like he'll suffer as players get more opportunity to see him pitch, so put him in for 2-3 innings mid-game when players haven't prepared for him.

[xisxisxis]

I agree guys, just pointing out reality, and where they're coming from. Personally. I don't like this Bucks model of being sort of competitive. I want Hader, Burnes. Peralta, and Woodruff in the rotation of it's my choice. And guess what, they may even win more games this year already doing that, even though it would be done with the future in mind.

 

While we're at it, bring back Arcia, Santana, and Nottingham. Let Phillip's play.

Delaying the rebuild drives me crazy. Watching Kratz, Perez, Orf, Broxton, etc. Play drives me crazy.

I agree with everything you posted. I wonder if the issue with the Brewers modeling the Bucks is also due to the owner? My guess is yes, Stearns is the GM, but he is getting direction from his boss that the team needs to win as much as possible... It's not like it would be the first time that Attanasio thinks he knows more than the professionals...

[xisxisxis]

Hard to argue, Barnes and Williams just cant be counted on.

 

Ok, I'll try. I think both have shown periods of being dominant (Williams more than Barnes), the issue is there are days they don't have it and unfortunately, we have a manager who doesn't react to signs that a pitcher is losing it/doesn't have it that day. I'm not sure all RP respond to sitting for a half inning then coming back out to pitch. When you have 4-5 batters knocking them around, maybe you're 2 batters late for taking action. Williams put 6 batters on on July 20th in 1 IP and lucked out of it with only giving up 2 runs. On the 22nd (2 games later) he cruises through 1 IP and then he comes out for a 2nd inning and that huge dinosaur sized crap hits the fan... he's now been hit hard in 2 games since the break and 1 of them could have been avoided or minimized with a little thought from the manager. I don't think there's anything wrong with either Barnes or William, they just need better "management".

[shanedog19]

No idea why he isn't starting. He would instantly be our #1 in my opinion. This team isn't going anywhere this year, would be nice to get a glimpse of the future rotation with him and Peralta. I'm sick of the way Counsell uses pitchers, with Burnes and Hader being at the top of the list.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm sick of the way Counsell uses pitchers, with Burnes and Hader being at the top of the list.

 

I agree. If you are only going to pitch a reliever once every 4 days, they might as well be starting.

[Thurston Fluff]

Suter likely on dl for a while this time, Guerra and Peralra back so rotation is set. I believe Burnes will be a starter long term but they need him in the pen this year. Hard to argue, Barnes and Williams just cant be counted on.

 

The rotation is set in the sense that they have 5 guys in it. Here's my problem. Burnes out of the pen is probably going to limit him to 110-120 innings this year. So are they going to let him go 200 innings next year or are they going to have to watch his innings again? I don't think there's much of an argument that he's one of the top 5 starters on the roster currently, so if that's the case, he should be in the rotation.

 

There's also the entertainment factor to me. There's no entertainment in watching Anderson try to keep his pitch count under 100 in 5 innings or watch Miley walk as many as he strikes out. Burnes brings legitimate excitement about what he could possibly do now and what he could become in the future.

 

I don't think we have to worry about any starter going 200 innings the way Counsell manages the starters. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with it. Just noting the way Counsell manages the starters means Burnes lack of innings this year probably doesn't matter at all because he was never going to hit his innings limit anyway.

[Lathund]

This sounds strikingly similar to Hader: "We're still looking at him as a starter, we just need the help this year in the bullpen to get us to the playoffs." Then the offseason hits and we hear that he's far too valuable in the bullpen to mess with success, and he might not be a good starter anyhow. .

 

Brewers (Counsell) said about Burnes that he was 100% going back to the rotation next year. I don't believe they were ever that definitive with Hader. They are rather different too; Hader was barely using two pitches and had control issues, while Burnes has very solid command of 4 pitches and uses them all. He's not a guy they'll use as a reliever long term.

[trwi7]

I don't think we have to worry about any starter going 200 innings the way Counsell manages the starters. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with it. Just noting the way Counsell manages the starters means Burnes lack of innings this year probably doesn't matter at all because he was never going to hit his innings limit anyway.

 

Again, is this because of the way Counsell manages or is this because our starters aren't very good and it's better to pull them an inning early than it is an inning late? You don't even need to average a full 6 innings over 34 starts to get to 200 innings.

[tmwiese55]

This sounds strikingly similar to Hader: "We're still looking at him as a starter, we just need the help this year in the bullpen to get us to the playoffs." Then the offseason hits and we hear that he's far too valuable in the bullpen to mess with success, and he might not be a good starter anyhow. .

 

Brewers (Counsell) said about Burnes that he was 100% going back to the rotation next year. I don't believe they were ever that definitive with Hader. They are rather different too; Hader was barely using two pitches and had control issues, while Burnes has very solid command of 4 pitches and uses them all. He's not a guy they'll use as a reliever long term.

 

So far Burnes has only used fastball and slider though hasn't he? Correct me if I haven't noticed. I understood all 4 were competent and he had control as well so I'm guessing they just feel those two are best and since you're only facing the order once there is no need to get tricky.

[Harry Doyles JD]

This sounds strikingly similar to Hader: "We're still looking at him as a starter, we just need the help this year in the bullpen to get us to the playoffs." Then the offseason hits and we hear that he's far too valuable in the bullpen to mess with success, and he might not be a good starter anyhow. .

 

Brewers (Counsell) said about Burnes that he was 100% going back to the rotation next year. I don't believe they were ever that definitive with Hader. They are rather different too; Hader was barely using two pitches and had control issues, while Burnes has very solid command of 4 pitches and uses them all. He's not a guy they'll use as a reliever long term.

 

So far Burnes has only used fastball and slider though hasn't he? Correct me if I haven't noticed. I understood all 4 were competent and he had control as well so I'm guessing they just feel those two are best and since you're only facing the order once there is no need to get tricky.

....or there's no need to show all four pitches when going through the order >1 time as a reliever?

[monty57]

I'm sick of the way Counsell uses pitchers, with Burnes and Hader being at the top of the list.

 

I agree. If you are only going to pitch a reliever once every 4 days, they might as well be starting.

 

101 games in (62% of the season), Hader has 32 appearances and 50 innings. As a starter, he'd probably be at 20-21 appearances with 100-120 innings. If he could maintain anywhere near the dominance he has as a starter, I think he'd be far more valuable starting.

 

Occasionally, you need a guy to pitch multiple innings in relief, but I think I'd rather use a reliever like they've used Jeffress so he can pitch more often, than only having Hader available every few days because he's used for multiple innings. There are a lot of "high leverage" innings where Hader isn't available because he was used a day or two ago. I agree with the those that have said if you're always going to use him for 2-3 innings, why not just have him start and go 5+?

[tmwiese55]

Brewers (Counsell) said about Burnes that he was 100% going back to the rotation next year. I don't believe they were ever that definitive with Hader. They are rather different too; Hader was barely using two pitches and had control issues, while Burnes has very solid command of 4 pitches and uses them all. He's not a guy they'll use as a reliever long term.

 

So far Burnes has only used fastball and slider though hasn't he? Correct me if I haven't noticed. I understood all 4 were competent and he had control as well so I'm guessing they just feel those two are best and since you're only facing the order once there is no need to get tricky.

 

....or there's no need to show all four pitches when going through the order >1 time as a reliever?

[KeithStone53151]

Brewers (Counsell) said about Burnes that he was 100% going back to the rotation next year. I don't believe they were ever that definitive with Hader. They are rather different too; Hader was barely using two pitches and had control issues, while Burnes has very solid command of 4 pitches and uses them all. He's not a guy they'll use as a reliever long term.

 

So far Burnes has only used fastball and slider though hasn't he? Correct me if I haven't noticed. I understood all 4 were competent and he had control as well so I'm guessing they just feel those two are best and since you're only facing the order once there is no need to get tricky.

 

....or there's no need to show all four pitches when going through the order >1 time as a reliever?

 

That's part of it. I haven't seen him pitch every time, but I've for sure seen 3 pitches. FB(60%), slider(35%), hammer curve(5%). This is somewhat similar to hader and his fastball last year. Why throw anything else when guys are struggling so much with those 2 pitches?

[MenchHead]

I get the frustration. I’m not saying Burnes should be starting but I do know Suter shouldn’t have been starting. I’m no scout, but I have also never watched Suter pitch and say, “Wow, he has the stuff to be a major league starter.” The fact is, he’s not. He doesnt command his whiffle balls that well and can’t pitch through a lineup more than two times (if he can even get through that). I don’t know who the organization thinks is better than him but I can think of guys with way higher upside who cannot possibly be as bad. If we are seriously considering ourselves contenders, the Brent Suters/Chris Navesons/Braden Loopers of the world cannot be starting in this rotation.

[coolhandluke121]

The starters aren't very good and the defense is a big part of their success. Another factor that I haven't seen mentioned as often is the amount of inherited runners the bullpen strands.

 

However, doesn't that just show how important having some of your best pitchers in the bullpen really is? Leverage innings count for a lot. The fact that they can have so much success with mediocre starters doesn't mean they have to start Burnes or Hader. If anything, it's vindication of the way they're using some of their most talented arms. Guys like Jennings, Barnes, and Williams are somewhat predictably coming back to earth and I want them to continue to have a superb bullpen. It's been a huge part of their success. They're a strong playoff contender and it's okay to use a few guys in the way that likely helps them the most now, especially if it minimizes the stress on their arms while they develop. The downside is valid, but not nearly as big as some people are making it out to be.

[sveumrules]

^^^ Exactly.

 

Six of the top eleven pitchers in Win Probability Added so far this season are relievers.

 

It's not just the top end of the WPA leaderboard either, scroll through & you'll see relievers mingling side by side with starters in terms of actual impact on wins & losses (as opposed to context neutral WAR).

 

Sure, a true ace is still the most valuable commodity in baseball. But as we know there's maybe a half dozen of them in the game at any given time.

 

Meanwhile guys like Blake Treinen, Lou Trivino, Seranthony Dominguez, Yoshihisa Hirano & Kirby Yates (plus Hader, Jeffress & hopefully Burnes for the rest of this summer) can have a similar impact by being employed consistently in high leverage situations.

 

Comparing Burnes & Peralta's WPA totals this season illustrates just how impactful a carefully deployed reliever can be. In his 7 starts & 37 innings Peralta has a WPA of 0.39. In his 3 relief appearances & 6 innings Burnes has a WPA of 0.45.

[bill hAll Star]

Hard to argue, Barnes and Williams just cant be counted on.

 

Ok, I'll try. I think both have shown periods of being dominant (Williams more than Barnes), the issue is there are days they don't have it and unfortunately, we have a manager who doesn't react to signs that a pitcher is losing it/doesn't have it that day. I'm not sure all RP respond to sitting for a half inning then coming back out to pitch. When you have 4-5 batters knocking them around, maybe you're 2 batters late for taking action. Williams put 6 batters on on July 20th in 1 IP and lucked out of it with only giving up 2 runs. On the 22nd (2 games later) he cruises through 1 IP and then he comes out for a 2nd inning and that huge dinosaur sized crap hits the fan... he's now been hit hard in 2 games since the break and 1 of them could have been avoided or minimized with a little thought from the manager. I don't think there's anything wrong with either Barnes or William, they just need better "management".

 

To me, this is the ideal management most times.

 

If someone like Williams comes in in a 4-2 game and put 2 guys on base - yes, take him out.

 

People are wringing their hands over Barnes', Jennings', Williams', etc's ERAs...because if they come in in a game that we already trail 7-2 or in a tie game that they do happen to quickly give up a 2 run HR (doesn't happen often)...leave them in! Save the good (or any) bullpen for later.

 

Whatever calculation Counsell/Stearns have I think tells them not to bother with a game that you're losing 5-2. Yes, we won a bunch early in the year and still can, but you don't play your best cards on the table when you're way behind. Hope for a miracle but pack it up and save your best for a game that you are leading or tied.

 

The July 20 game you mention, we were tied in the 7th and he blew it...fine. I don't see us coming back on Kenley and the other good Dodgers' bullpen. Leave Williams in and pray he can get out of it. If not, you've saved your bullpen for a more important game. After Williams gave up a run in the 7th, we had a 12% chance of winning

 

The July 22nd game was even more ideal. We're down 6-2 and Williams is one of our garbage bottom of the pen guys we have at the time. Pray he gets through 2-3 innings to save your bullpen and you somehow make a comeback. If he gets blown up, your chances of winning were 13% (according to bbref) when he entered the game anyways.

 

If Counsell is bringing in Williams with a lead and leaving him in too long - then we have a problem.

[monty57]

Comparing Burnes & Peralta's WPA totals this season illustrates just how impactful a carefully deployed reliever can be. In his 7 starts & 37 innings Peralta has a WPA of 0.39. In his 3 relief appearances & 6 innings Burnes has a WPA of 0.45.

 

WPA seems specifically designed to make sure relievers who are used in close games get big paychecks. With the exact same result, pitching late in the game will give you more WPA than pitching early in the game, and pitching six innings of shutout baseball isn't as "important" if your team scores you four runs in the first as it is if the team scores the exact same number of runs later in the game.

 

It's kind of fun, but I wouldn't use it to showcase which guys are most important to the team. It is very dependent on what the rest of the team is doing / has done, so it's probably there with wins and RBIs as a determinant stat.