Hand, Cimber to Indians for Mejia

[JosephC]

Cimber has a CRAZY delivery, submarine style. Fangraphs did something on him where his fastball ends up five inches higher than where it's released on average or something like that.

 

First thing that everybody looks at with San Diego pitchers are the home/road splits. That's not an issue with Cimber. He has a 2.96 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at home, a 3.38 ERA and 1.08 WHIP on the road. Then when looking at the submariner, the next split to look at is the lefty versus righty hitter. Righties have slashed a truly pitiful .210/.221/.261/.482 off of Cimber, but lefties have put a .293/.391/.569/.960 beating on him. ROOGY material? Sure looks like it. Brad Hand is the real deal. Personally I like what the Padres did but I'm pretty much always going to be biased when it comes to relievers just because many of them are so up and down (look at Knebel and Jeffress last year compared to this year). Again, I like Brad Hand but not enough to think that him and a 27 year old pitcher with limited MLB experience who hasn't been able to get lefties out are worth the upside of Mejia.

 

On the flip side, since the beginning of this season I've questioned if the Indians think Mejia can be an MLB level catcher. Now that the Indians have traded him for two relievers is just more information that makes me think that the Indians, who know more about Mejia than anybody, don't believe he can be a MLB catcher (at least not an everyday MLB catcher).

 

Watching Mejia's development will be very interesting.

[TJH123]

Its been too long since the Padres are relevant, I hope they turn it around soon. They have 10 top 100 prospects now so it seems they are getting closer

[MadThinker88]

....

On the flip side, since the beginning of this season I've questioned if the Indians think Mejia can be an MLB level catcher. Now that the Indians have traded him for two relievers is just more information that makes me think that the Indians, who know more about Mejia than anybody, don't believe he can be a MLB catcher (at least not an everyday MLB catcher).

 

Watching Mejia's development will be very interesting.

 

I do believe that Mejia has his positives and his negatives. He has the chance to remain as a catcher. The question is how good (or bad) will he be when not hitting. Hitting-wise I am convinced he could do well. The rest is up in the air.

 

I don't think he has much power in the bat so a catching comp to Piazza or Gary Sanchez might not be a good comp fit offensively. Brian Harper (former Twin, high avg) might be better comp but Harper was brutal controlling a run game (Mejia has an arm).

 

Gary Sanchez & Mejia might be very similar defensively... overall brutal in framing, receiving, handling a pitching staff.

 

I have written this before & will do so again here: I am convinced there are some teams that prefer their catcher to be Offense first, other teams want their catcher to be a staff handler & defensive force first. Cleveland (since Francona arrived for the 2013 season) is definitely in the latter category. This made Mejia a poor match for remaining in Cleveland as he was the opposite of that. Consider: although Mejia was called up to the majors last September and at a couple points this 2018 season, he never started a MLB game as catcher. He has started as DH. He has come in later in the game (8th or 9th inning) to catch. He has pinch hit as well. But this catcher never started a MLB game as catcher. I think that is telling.

 

Add to that the majority of Tribe prospects play multiple positions coming thru the minors, especially those with better bats. This allows the major league group to mix & match where needed to get the better players into the lineup or situations where players can succeed & thrive. Cleveland wanted Mejia to try 3B in the fall (he sulked & only went thru the motions). They wanted him in the OF this spring & as he played AAA while he still got time behind the dish. Again there were reports that Mejia went thru the motions and only wanted to catch.

 

A friend was telling me there were a series of tweets about the deal after it was announced & (i think) it was a LA beat writer/ reporter that said something along the lines of "he's your headcase now San Diego". I couldn't agree more.

[JosephC]

I'm guessing the majority of MLB franchises would value Mejia as a #26-#50 hitter, and if so that would put his prospect surplus value at 43.73 million.

 

Hand's Fangraphs WAR over the last three years (pro-rating 2018 to a full season) are 1.5 (2016), 1.7 (2017) and 1.2 (2018). Doing the same for Baseball Reference and the WAR's are 1.7, 2.8, -0.2. I don't like that -0.2 number and would like to treat it as an outlier and ignore it so I'll do the calculations both ways. Hand will make approximately 24.96 million over the remainder of his contract assuming the option year is picked up. If the 2018 -0.2 WAR from Baseball Reference is ignored, the average of the other 5 numbers is 1.8 which brings Hand's total value over the remainder of the contract to 63.59 million. Subtract 24.96 million from that and his surplus value would be 38.63 million. If the -0.2 is factored in, then the average WAR per season is 1.5, his total value is 53 million and his surplus value is 28.04 million.

 

Cimber doesn't have enough of a track record to run these numbers IMO. I'd still just assign prospect value to him (as I would do for a player like Brandon Woodruff). Cimber looks like a top 100 player against righties and a fringe players when facing lefties. What kind of prospect would he get traded for in a straight-up deal? I'd guess somewhere between a top 10 organizational prospect and a role player prospect. Since he's doing it at the major league level, I'd put a top 10 organizational prospect grade on him which makes him worth 11.45 million.

 

Mejia = 43.73 million

Hand (if using all the data including the odd -0.2 2018 Baseball Reference WAR value) + Cimber = 39.49 million

San Diego with a slight 4.24 million advantage which makes this a pretty equal trade.

 

If that -0.2 WAR season is ignored, then the Indians have a slight advantage.

 

But overall, just from the numbers standpoint, this looks like a really even trade.

 

Will also add one more note. For anyone out there who thinks Mejia is the real deal, my evaluation of him is low and he really should be considered the #15 prospect in all of baseball as listed by MLB.com. If Mejia still ranks up there then his prospect surplus value shoots all the way up to 70.98 million and then the numbers say this is a bad, bad, bad deal for the Indians. But I just don't think Mejia carries that sort of ranking anymore.

[YelichPosse]

I'm guessing the majority of MLB franchises would value Mejia as a #26-#50 hitter, and if so that would put his prospect surplus value at 43.73 million.

 

Hand's Fangraphs WAR over the last three years (pro-rating 2018 to a full season) are 1.5 (2016), 1.7 (2017) and 1.2 (2018). Doing the same for Baseball Reference and the WAR's are 1.7, 2.8, -0.2. I don't like that -0.2 number and would like to treat it as an outlier and ignore it so I'll do the calculations both ways. Hand will make approximately 24.96 million over the remainder of his contract assuming the option year is picked up. If the 2018 -0.2 WAR from Baseball Reference is ignored, the average of the other 5 numbers is 1.8 which brings Hand's total value over the remainder of the contract to 63.59 million. Subtract 24.96 million from that and his surplus value would be 38.63 million. If the -0.2 is factored in, then the average WAR per season is 1.5, his total value is 53 million and his surplus value is 28.04 million.

 

Cimber doesn't have enough of a track record to run these numbers IMO. I'd still just assign prospect value to him (as I would do for a player like Brandon Woodruff). Cimber looks like a top 100 player against righties and a fringe players when facing lefties. What kind of prospect would he get traded for in a straight-up deal? I'd guess somewhere between a top 10 organizational prospect and a role player prospect. Since he's doing it at the major league level, I'd put a top 10 organizational prospect grade on him which makes him worth 11.45 million.

 

Mejia = 43.73 million

Hand (if using all the data including the odd -0.2 2018 Baseball Reference WAR value) + Cimber = 39.49 million

San Diego with a slight 4.24 million advantage which makes this a pretty equal trade.

 

If that -0.2 WAR season is ignored, then the Indians have a slight advantage.

 

But overall, just from the numbers standpoint, this looks like a really even trade.

 

Will also add one more note. For anyone out there who thinks Mejia is the real deal, my evaluation of him is low and he really should be considered the #15 prospect in all of baseball as listed by MLB.com. If Mejia still ranks up there then his prospect surplus value shoots all the way up to 70.98 million and then the numbers say this is a bad, bad, bad deal for the Indians. But I just don't think Mejia carries that sort of ranking anymore.

 

First off - i love reading your posts.

 

Second... what would a Knebel trade looked like for Mejia. I am curious. Because man, it seems like he would be expendable and Mejia would be a nice upgrade for us long term. Almost a move DS would have made if it were possible since it checks a box, without hurting us too much. I don;t believe Knebel is the same as he was even last year, but relievers unless you are Trevor Hoffman or Mariano Rivera come and go after about a 2-4 year window .. (or that's just what we have seen here in Milwaukee lol).