2018 plan for Arcia and Santana

[statman0007]

Both Arcia and Santana have been swinging the bat better in AAA. Their current lines are:

 

Arcia: .322/.429/.458/.886 (strikeout percentage 14%)

 

Santana: .281/.415/.453/.886 (strikeout percentage 28%)

 

So making contact hasn't been great for Santana but the other numbers are promising. I know they haven't been in AAA very long, but similar to Schwarber last year they may have just needed a "reset" to get back on track rather than completely remaking their swing or something. I think it's an easy decision to have Santana continue in AAA coming out of the break as he wouldn't get regular at bats in Milwaukee and needs to cut that strikeout percentage down. I think it's a harder decision with Arcia. If he's made some offensive improvements in AAA he could clearly help the team win games in the 2nd half. Now that we know we're not getting Machado there's more clear opportunity at SS. I know that the trade deadline is far from over, but most of the other guys being mentioned either aren't shortstops or have defensive versatility. Saladino could still get plenty of starts between SS and 2B if he keeps hitting well. I think there's a decent chance we see Arcia back sooner rather than later. I'd think about it now, and would for sure do it after July 31 if he continues to hit and we haven't made any major middle infield additions.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I say leave 'em there until each puts together a solid week at the plate. Domingo blasted 2 HRs Tuesday night, then followed it up with 3 Ks yesterday. No thanks. He can continue to "get right" in Colorado Springs until he lowers that K rate, and hits with power more consistently. Plus I'd like to see Phillips get a little longer look in RF. Not a super long leash with him, though, either, as he's been a disappointment in both AAA and at the Major League level this year, save one game.

 

I have a little more leeway with Arcia because he plays such great defense. But if Saladino continues to play well, there isn't as much urgency there, either.

[xisxisxis]

I think there's a decent chance we see Arcia back sooner rather than later.

 

My 50+ YO fat gut could outhit Arcia in 70PA in the PCL... I say leave him until it's clear he actually can finally hit... If Chris Davis wasn't around Arcia would be in the discussion for worst batter in MLB... His approach was atrocious while in Milwaukee and I'd like to see at least 200PA of decent production in the PCL before I add him back to our already dysfunctional offense...

[KeithStone53151]

I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Santana brought back up right out of the break with the injuries we are dealing with. Both Braun and Thames currently hurt, if Santana is hitting better he's a better option than Phillips or Broxton.

 

Arcia I think stays put as we give Saladino more regular playing time while looking for upgrades. Arcia could simply get stuck in AAA until September depending on the acquisition we make.

[jerichoholicninja]

Has Arcia actually made any adjustments or is he just "lucking" his way into a couple good weeks? That's really what matters.

[MoreTrife]

When are we out of Colorado Springs? I can't wait to not have to do the mental calculation of "okay, those numbers in CO Springs mean yada yada in real world terms.

 

Those numbers don't look good at all considering location.

[statman0007]

Colorado Spring gives a boost, but they still have to produce. Even in Colorado, I don't see how those aren't encouraging numbers, especially the on-base percentage.

 

AAA stats for other guys this year:

 

Phillips: .240/.331/.411/.742

Broxton: .263/.336/.431/.767

Bandy: .313/.387/.495/.882

Nottingham: .303/.368/.570/.938

 

So some guys clearly taking advantage of the good hitting environment, but Phillips and Broxton stats aren't impressive. I'd say an .886 OPS for Arcia is great, even in Colorado. As a corner outfielder with questionable defense, Santana really needs to put up some bigger stats offensively.

[phnxcrew]

Arcia's line looks good... hopefully he has completely changed his stance though. The whole constantly off-balance, huge leg lift, loopy swing wouldn't work for the best of the best. Ridiculous. I doubt we see Santana again. I think it sucks, but he didn't perform. Would've been nice to get the usual trade value for a pre-arby, .270/ 30 hr guy last off season.

[JohnBriggs12]

Both Arcia and Santana have been swinging the bat better in AAA. Their current lines are:

 

Arcia: .322/.429/.458/.886 (strikeout percentage 14%)

 

Santana: .281/.415/.453/.886 (strikeout percentage 28%)

 

So making contact hasn't been great for Santana but the other numbers are promising. I know they haven't been in AAA very long, but similar to Schwarber last year they may have just needed a "reset" to get back on track rather than completely remaking their swing or something. I think it's an easy decision to have Santana continue in AAA coming out of the break as he wouldn't get regular at bats in Milwaukee and needs to cut that strikeout percentage down. I think it's a harder decision with Arcia. If he's made some offensive improvements in AAA he could clearly help the team win games in the 2nd half. Now that we know we're not getting Machado there's more clear opportunity at SS. I know that the trade deadline is far from over, but most of the other guys being mentioned either aren't shortstops or have defensive versatility. Saladino could still get plenty of starts between SS and 2B if he keeps hitting well. I think there's a decent chance we see Arcia back sooner rather than later. I'd think about it now, and would for sure do it after July 31 if he continues to hit and we haven't made any major middle infield additions.

 

Schwarber hit .343/.477/.714 with 4 HR in 44 AB's at AAA last year. How in any was does Santana's performance at CS compare with that? Santana's arby eligible this winter. Will be interesting to see what he can get coming off this season.

[bill hAll Star]

Colorado Spring gives a boost, but they still have to produce. Even in Colorado, I don't see how those aren't encouraging numbers, especially the on-base percentage.

 

AAA stats for other guys this year:

 

Phillips: .240/.331/.411/.742

Broxton: .263/.336/.431/.767

Bandy: .313/.387/.495/.882

Nottingham: .303/.368/.570/.938

 

So some guys clearly taking advantage of the good hitting environment, but Phillips and Broxton stats aren't impressive. I'd say an .886 OPS for Arcia is great, even in Colorado. As a corner outfielder with questionable defense, Santana really needs to put up some bigger stats offensively.

 

Phillips and Broxton destroyed CS in the past, though.

 

Garrett Cooper, Cordell, Ivan DeJesus, Sogard, Orf, Wren, and other journeymen or AAAA players have all put up similar numbers in Colorado Springs recently. Unfortunately it's almost impossible to tell. Brinson did great there and is about on par with Arcia in the majors.

 

You can look right at Nottingham's BABIP and K/BB peripherals and realize that he'll go right back to his low average, high slugging, high K projections in the majors and that you can just throw the AAA numbers right out the window.

 

The PCL is also a hitter's league so it's not like the Rockies where they at least go into a lot of tough divisional environments on the road. Even with that said, take a look at most of the Rockies' splits this year. Every year there is a guy with reverse Coors splits (I think it's Parra this year), but CarGo, Story, etc. are on the usual 1.100 OPS at home .700 road OPS type thing.

[Lathund]

When are we out of Colorado Springs? I can't wait to not have to do the mental calculation of "okay, those numbers in CO Springs mean yada yada in real world terms.

 

Those numbers don't look good at all considering location.

 

You don't really need to do a lot of mental calculations. Instead of the regular slash line or OPS, use OPS+ or wRC+ which are scaled to the park and league scoring environment. It's not perfect, but is very useful for purposes like this as well as historical comparisons. Arcia is sitting at 134 wRC+, i.e 34% above the league average adjusted for park factors. Which is about where Eric Thames is in relation to the MLB at large. So his numbers are good, Colorado Springs or not. The question is if they're real or not.

[homer]

Arcia has an 823 OPS away from CS. Santana's is 692.

[Pugger]

Of course hitting in AAA ain't the same as in the majors...

[Ennder]

Of course hitting in AAA ain't the same as in the majors...

 

It might actually be harder given how many young players have hit the majors and seen power spikes like they never had in the minors. Guys like Torres, Judge and Albies are better in the majors than they ever were in the minors by a very wide margin.

[statman0007]

Given Arcia's defense, what type of OPS would he need bring value to the team? Just throwing out some numbers, I'd put a range of outcomes at:

 

.730+: positive value

.680: neutral

.630 and below: negative value

[istanbultaye]

I would guess that he'd be even or slightly positive even with a .650 if it's something like .250/.300/.350. Especially if he was the only sub .700 guy regularly in the lineup.

[Lathund]

I would guess that he'd be even or slightly positive even with a .650 if it's something like .250/.300/.350. Especially if he was the only sub .700 guy regularly in the lineup.

 

I think that's an important distinction. If everyone else is hitting well you can carry an excellent defensive shortstop (Or catcher) who doesn't contribute much offensively. So if the offense around him picks back up, I think we could see him back sooner rather than later. If not, he's likely down until the roster expansion.

[markedman5]

TH tweet

 

Stearns said he is pleased with adjustments Orlando Arcia has made with @skysox and encouraged but did not indicate a call-up is imminent. Said "we will continue to monitor" his progress.

[markedman5]

Double and a triple for Arcia tonight

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Arcia has a chance to be one of the biggest mid season additions possible for this team.

[folly412]

Sometimes hard to believe he finished .277/.324/.407, or that in spite of the perceived streakiness only had one month below a .700 OPS. I'll take that again.

[The stache]

Sometimes hard to believe he finished .277/.324/.407, or that in spite of the perceived streakiness only had one month below a .700 OPS. I'll take that again.

 

As would I. Arcia had only a 1.3 dWAR last year, and a 1.9 oWAR. I could see him being a perennial 5 WAR Player in his prime. His defensive metrics will improve.

 

If he could get a .350 OBP and keep a .400 + SLG, and play his usual defense, I'd be thrilled.

 

This is the kind of seasonal stat line I think makes for a reasonable expectation from Arcia:

 

155 G, 550 AB, 75 R, 152 H, 25 2B, 5 3B, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 15 SB, 62 BB. .276 AVG, .350 OBP/.416 SLG/.766 OPS.

 

If he adds a few more home runs, he's getting closer to an .800 OPS. Gold Glove defense, and a .750 + OPS would be absolutely wonderful.

[JohnBriggs12]

Have to be encouraged by Arcia with just 10 K's in 70 AAA ABs, matching his walk total. He's probably no more than a couple more weeks away from a return if he keeps up this pace.

[bill hAll Star]

Of course hitting in AAA ain't the same as in the majors...

 

It might actually be harder given how many young players have hit the majors and seen power spikes like they never had in the minors. Guys like Torres, Judge and Albies are better in the majors than they ever were in the minors by a very wide margin.

 

There are various reasons that some of those guys hit worse in the minors (Albies and Torres were really young, Judge hadn't figured things out yet, etc.) but all of those guys played in the International League. Playing in the PCL for Colorado Springs is like playing your home games at Coors Field and then going to some away games @Great American Ballpark, Camden Yards, and Yankee Stadium. There may be some interesting pitchers there but there's not much they can do to stop the offense.

 

The International League is a tough hitting environment.

[Pugger]

Arcia has a chance to be one of the biggest mid season additions possible for this team.

 

I sure hope so. We do need production from the back end of our lineup.