Machado Traded to Dodgers

[JosephC]

Are we sure that Kremer wouldn't be significantly higher on prospect lists if they came out today? I don't know any more than is available on the mlb.com write-up on his actual stuff, but his first two full seasons kind of remind me of Brandon Woodruff's, except with an even better K-rate (in that he was significantly better in the second half after being moved straight up to A+ in his first full season and then came back and posted very good stats relative to league at A+ until getting promoted the following year). Plus you have the fact that he has less pitching experience than the typical college draftee. There's a chance his value is closer to Brown than Supak (and this is coming from someone who has Brown as a possible top 5 prospect in the Brewers system).

 

Baltimore had one of the worst systems in baseball just a couple years ago, but they had done a pretty good job of rebuilding it over the last couple years (even before this trade). Baseball America had them ranked #17 going into the season and they've gotten good performances out of many of their top prospects like Ryan Mountcastle, DL Hall, Cedric Mullins, Keegan Akin, Brenan Hanifee.

 

MLB.com has slotted Kremer at #13, Bannon at #17 and Pop at #29. It's reasonable to assume that I had undervalued both players in the assignment of surplus values and each of them should have been valued at 5.72 million. Pop is low enough where he still gets a 2.29 million dollar value. Adding in 25.65 mlllion for Diaz then brings the total package worth to 39.38 million going to Baltimore.

 

For the Brewers to match this, I think the package would have had to been something like:

RHP-Corbin Burnes (51-75 pitcher) = 18.90 million

RHP-Brandon Woodruff (between 76-100 pitcher and top 10 organizational prospect) = 14.66 million

OF-Troy Stokes (role player prospect) = 5.72 million

Total package = 39.28 million

[BuckyBrewer61]

We wouldn’t even be discussing Machado if he hadn’t sold incredibly low on Segura and Scooter.

 

Jean Segura, last two seasons with Brewers: 1141 PA | 65 wRC+ (116th of 117 qualifiers). WAR: 0.2 (112th of 117 qualifiers).

 

Scooter Gennett, last two seasons with Brewers: 933 PA | 86 wRC+ (149th of 164 players with at least 900 PA). WAR: 0.4 (156th of 164 players with at least 900 PA).

 

It's difficult to sell incredibly low on players who had no value by virtue of their own measurably terrible performance.

 

Can we pin this to the top of the board?

 

Yes, it sucks that we let two all-stars go. But at the time of their departures, they had large sample sizes of being bad major league baseball players. Hindsight is 20/20.

[YelichPosse]

We wouldn’t even be discussing Machado if he hadn’t sold incredibly low on Segura and Scooter.

 

Jean Segura, last two seasons with Brewers: 1141 PA | 65 wRC+ (116th of 117 qualifiers). WAR: 0.2 (112th of 117 qualifiers).

 

Scooter Gennett, last two seasons with Brewers: 933 PA | 86 wRC+ (149th of 164 players with at least 900 PA). WAR: 0.4 (156th of 164 players with at least 900 PA).

 

It's difficult to sell incredibly low on players who had no value by virtue of their own measurably terrible performance.

 

Can we pin this to the top of the board?

 

Yes, it sucks that we let two all-stars go. But at the time of their departures, they had large sample sizes of being bad major league baseball players. Hindsight is 20/20.

 

I echo this. Segura and Gennett both were widely seen as turds in the punch bowl much along the ways of how many see Villar (but even worse) and saw Sogard. The fact that hindsight is now involved, means nothing at all with "would have could have should have".

[KeithStone53151]

Wow, that's actually a really underwhelming return after Diaz. Valera is pure filler, nothing more. Kremer and Pop are kind of intriguing arms but no sure thing. Bannon is probably the most interesting of the other 4 but an older High A guy leaves no sure thing he'll be anything.

 

I'm not saying we should have beaten the offer but we could have fairly easily.

 

I tend to agree it's underwhelming beyond Diaz. I like him a lot, but some scouts think he might end up being a tweener type. Not enough speed for CF, not enough pop for RF.

 

As for the others, I actually am very underwhelmed by Bannon. He's doing what he's doing in a very hitter friendly California league and as a 22 year old in high a. It's almost as if they sent him there to mash so they could trade him this offseason. I like Kremer much more than Bannon. I also think Pop is a significant contributor in an mlb bullpen.

[Humans Need Water]

Are we sure that Kremer wouldn't be significantly higher on prospect lists if they came out today? I don't know any more than is available on the mlb.com write-up on his actual stuff, but his first two full seasons kind of remind me of Brandon Woodruff's, except with an even better K-rate (in that he was significantly better in the second half after being moved straight up to A+ in his first full season and then came back and posted very good stats relative to league at A+ until getting promoted the following year). Plus you have the fact that he has less pitching experience than the typical college draftee. There's a chance his value is closer to Brown than Supak (and this is coming from someone who has Brown as a possible top 5 prospect in the Brewers system).

 

Baltimore had one of the worst systems in baseball just a couple years ago, but they had done a pretty good job of rebuilding it over the last couple years (even before this trade). Baseball America had them ranked #17 going into the season and they've gotten good performances out of many of their top prospects like Ryan Mountcastle, DL Hall, Cedric Mullins, Keegan Akin, Brenan Hanifee.

 

MLB.com has slotted Kremer at #13, Bannon at #17 and Pop at #29. It's reasonable to assume that I had undervalued both players in the assignment of surplus values and each of them should have been valued at 5.72 million. Pop is low enough where he still gets a 2.29 million dollar value. Adding in 25.65 mlllion for Diaz then brings the total package worth to 39.38 million going to Baltimore.

 

For the Brewers to match this, I think the package would have had to been something like:

RHP-Corbin Burnes (51-75 pitcher) = 18.90 million

RHP-Brandon Woodruff (between 76-100 pitcher and top 10 organizational prospect) = 14.66 million

OF-Troy Stokes (role player prospect) = 5.72 million

Total package = 39.28 million

Kremer is a college arm who put up good numbers in rookie ball the year he was drafted and excellent numbers in A but he was strictly in the pen for those 15 innings. Last year he was terrible in A+ outside of his K9. This year he's 1.2yrs young for A+ and significantly improved across the board. Woodruff was injured in 2015 and the Brewers said as a result of that he was *the* pitcher to watch in 2016 as he was fully healthy and that was the year he was awesome in A+/AA...his stuff and control at that point was, and still is, better than Kremer. Brown is 1.5yrs young for AA and has better numbers across the board outside of K9. Brown is a well-rounded pitcher at this point having low-mid 90s fastball with nasty curve and good change and he's controlling them all, which is why the Brewers are very high on him. Kremer throws harder but is trailing in secondary stuff and control.

 

Woodruff and Brown are both better than Kremer and I don't see that changing moving forward. I like Kremer though. He's a MLB arm. But I think at this point it's still a toss up if he sticks in the rotation or heads to the pen where he could be really good - probably won't know that answer until next May/June. Burnes + Woodruff/Brown alone would have been a massive overpay for Machado

[StearnsFTW]

We have a GM who acquired two guys without whom the Brewers wouldn't even be sniffing the playoff race. Those were home run moves.

 

They were good moves, but acquiring players in the winter is like hitting home runs in the third inning. They're good but not decisive. He has yet to show in back to back years that he can finish the job and get the man he wants in the 9th inning with the season on the line. And there's that releasing Scooter Gennett move too. Say what you want about Doug Melvin, but when he set his sights on the playoffs, he got his man. Twice in fact.

 

 

The scariest part of this is that there are people that actually believe this stuff.

[Roderick]

We have a GM who acquired two guys without whom the Brewers wouldn't even be sniffing the playoff race. Those were home run moves.

 

They were good moves, but acquiring players in the winter is like hitting home runs in the third inning. They're good but not decisive. He has yet to show in back to back years that he can finish the job and get the man he wants in the 9th inning with the season on the line. And there's that releasing Scooter Gennett move too. Say what you want about Doug Melvin, but when he set his sights on the playoffs, he got his man. Twice in fact.

 

Do Homer's in the 3rd count for less than the 8th or 9th?

 

Also, as someone else pointed out...I prefer the full season value of a player.

 

I'd rather have the home runs in the 3rd versus the 8th. That way you are playing with the lead and actually use Hader and Jeffress.

[JohnBriggs12]

We have a GM who acquired two guys without whom the Brewers wouldn't even be sniffing the playoff race. Those were home run moves.

 

They were good moves, but acquiring players in the winter is like hitting home runs in the third inning. They're good but not decisive. He has yet to show in back to back years that he can finish the job and get the man he wants in the 9th inning with the season on the line. And there's that releasing Scooter Gennett move too. Say what you want about Doug Melvin, but when he set his sights on the playoffs, he got his man. Twice in fact.

 

 

The scariest part of this is that there are people that actually believe this stuff.

 

 

I've been called a lot of things, but scary isn't one of them, then again Millennials are easily scared.

[JohnBriggs12]

Seems like the Orioles got one actual prospect and a bunch of "meh" filler. Certainly no where near the return some were reporting. On the one hand I'm glad Stearns didn't try to best the offer, but on the other if he just sits on his hands again this year and allows this craptastic offense to waste away another season I'll be disappointed.

 

Stearns is what he is, a new age GM, who is still learning. The July deadline requires ability to think fast and understand the other's teams needs well enough to make an offer that will get his target. He's failed the last two July's to get his number one target. I don't know how else you can spin it other than to say he failed. It was pretty clear to me back in May that Machado was the missing link for this team. We don't know when Stearns came to that realization, but he clearly wasn't prepared to do what it took. The Dodgers didn't give up all that much. They got their man. Stearns is left going over the scraps.

[MrTPlush]

Haha wow. Resorting to millennial references. Come Briggs you must be better than that...or at least pretend to be while on this forum.

[BuckyBrewer61]

Say what you want about Doug Melvin, but when he set his sights on the playoffs, he got his man. Twice in fact.

 

 

Wait, so are we giving Doug Melvin credit for Zach Greinke here? Because he was an offseason trade, therefore not decisive...right?

[homer]

For the record, I am part of Gen X

[homer]

Say what you want about Doug Melvin, but when he set his sights on the playoffs, he got his man. Twice in fact.

 

 

Wait, so are we giving Doug Melvin credit for Zach Greinke here? Because he was an offseason trade, therefore not decisive...right?

 

maybe he's referring to Shaun Marcum

[82brewcrew82]

post removed. please don't call individual posters out like that.

[82brewcrew82]

Say what you want about Doug Melvin, but when he set his sights on the playoffs, he got his man. Twice in fact.

 

 

Wait, so are we giving Doug Melvin credit for Zach Greinke here? Because he was an offseason trade, therefore not decisive...right?

 

maybe he's referring to Shaun Marcum

Marcum was off-season too.

[xisxisxis]

He's failed the last two July's to get his number one target. I don't know how else you can spin it other than to say he failed.

 

I'd love to see you on ebay... Would you just keep bidding up, no matter what, when someone else with deep pockets has no limit to what they will spend? It's no different than a gambler who can't control themselves and loses everything they have, and can borrow...

 

There's a point where you determine what price you will put on something and you have to stick to it... I'm glad Stearns is not Art Schlichter or Pete Rose...

[82brewcrew82]

Seems like the Orioles got one actual prospect and a bunch of "meh" filler. Certainly no where near the return some were reporting. On the one hand I'm glad Stearns didn't try to best the offer, but on the other if he just sits on his hands again this year and allows this craptastic offense to waste away another season I'll be disappointed.

 

Stearns is what he is, a new age GM, who is still learning. The July deadline requires ability to think fast and understand the other's teams needs well enough to make an offer that will get his target. He's failed the last two July's to get his number one target. I don't know how else you can spin it other than to say he failed. It was pretty clear to me back in May that Machado was the missing link for this team. We don't know when Stearns came to that realization, but he clearly wasn't prepared to do what it took. The Dodgers didn't give up all that much. They got their man. Stearns is left going over the scraps.

Melvin got his guy and the expense of the future. In my opinion to make only two playoff appearances off of that core group was a travesty. I mean, Melvin was the guy who threw Nelson Cruz in a trade. Melvin ran this organization into the ground and Stearns has brought it back and not just or a year here or there.

 

Stearns obviously wanted Quintana and Machado, but not at any price. The weak move is to throw assets at another club until you get what you want. That doesn't make you anything but a sucker and other GMs would feast on that to no end. No, the strong and well prepared move is to set your price and not exceed it out of panic and desperation. I'll take the strong, well prepared GM over the weak one every time.

 

If you think Machado alone was the missing link for this team, you have a lot to learn.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Kremer is a college arm who put up good numbers in rookie ball the year he was drafted and excellent numbers in A but he was strictly in the pen for those 15 innings. Last year he was terrible in A+ outside of his K9. This year he's 1.2yrs young for A+ and significantly improved across the board. Woodruff was injured in 2015 and the Brewers said as a result of that he was *the* pitcher to watch in 2016 as he was fully healthy and that was the year he was awesome in A+/AA...his stuff and control at that point was, and still is, better than Kremer. Brown is 1.5yrs young for AA and has better numbers across the board outside of K9. Brown is a well-rounded pitcher at this point having low-mid 90s fastball with nasty curve and good change and he's controlling them all, which is why the Brewers are very high on him. Kremer throws harder but is trailing in secondary stuff and control.

 

Woodruff and Brown are both better than Kremer and I don't see that changing moving forward. I like Kremer though. He's a MLB arm. But I think at this point it's still a toss up if he sticks in the rotation or heads to the pen where he could be really good - probably won't know that answer until next May/June. Burnes + Woodruff/Brown alone would have been a massive overpay for Machado

 

Kremer basically had an awful first half of 2017 when, as a guy who it sounds like had less pitching experience than your normal college arm, he almost skipped low A and got tossed into one of the more offensively skewed leagues in the minors. He was an above average pitcher there for the second half of the season and one of the best in the league so far this year. Like Bannon, the Dodgers probably should have promoted him sooner, but even with the available data he seems much more intriguing than a lot of the Diaz and filler talk would suggest, and I think that if he were in the Brewers system we'd be mentioning him as a top-10 guy. Outside of Peralta before his promotion, the only pitcher in the Brewers system who is having a season comparable to his this year is Brown.

 

I'm with you on Burnes + Woodruff or Brown being an overpay, and I'm not sure that the Orioles wouldn't have viewed that as the type of package they would have demanded from the Brewers. I guess my larger point is, while betting on pop-up prospects can be risky, it is perhaps even more foolish to completely discount the added value from breakout seasons, which seems to be the case in much of the analysis I've seen on this trade, primarily citing preseason prospect rankings in panning the return. (Note: I do NOT include the post I'm replying to on this list, just explaining why I'm leery of some of the opinions I was seeing immediately after the trade and why I'm skeptical that the Brewers could have gotten him for as little as some people on here seem to be assuming.)

[wildcat83]

Stearns didn’t over pay for a rental, I’m not sure how that’s failing. I don’t want to mortgage the future for a rental that most likely gets us to the playoffs, but not the WS. I don’t think Machado makes us a WS team, and he’s gone after this year.

 

Melvin pulled the trigger on an all in year. We also we terrible in seasons after that. The current rebuild has not peaked by my estimation. I think our window may be next year or even two years from now. I like passing on the rental. If we can improve with a guy under control for 2-3 years, that fits the course better imo

[Humans Need Water]

Kremer is a college arm who put up good numbers in rookie ball the year he was drafted and excellent numbers in A but he was strictly in the pen for those 15 innings. Last year he was terrible in A+ outside of his K9. This year he's 1.2yrs young for A+ and significantly improved across the board. Woodruff was injured in 2015 and the Brewers said as a result of that he was *the* pitcher to watch in 2016 as he was fully healthy and that was the year he was awesome in A+/AA...his stuff and control at that point was, and still is, better than Kremer. Brown is 1.5yrs young for AA and has better numbers across the board outside of K9. Brown is a well-rounded pitcher at this point having low-mid 90s fastball with nasty curve and good change and he's controlling them all, which is why the Brewers are very high on him. Kremer throws harder but is trailing in secondary stuff and control.

 

Woodruff and Brown are both better than Kremer and I don't see that changing moving forward. I like Kremer though. He's a MLB arm. But I think at this point it's still a toss up if he sticks in the rotation or heads to the pen where he could be really good - probably won't know that answer until next May/June. Burnes + Woodruff/Brown alone would have been a massive overpay for Machado

 

Kremer basically had an awful first half of 2017 when, as a guy who it sounds like had less pitching experience than your normal college arm, he almost skipped low A and got tossed into one of the more offensively skewed leagues in the minors. He was an above average pitcher there for the second half of the season and one of the best in the league so far this year. Like Bannon, the Dodgers probably should have promoted him sooner, but even with the available data he seems much more intriguing than a lot of the Diaz and filler talk would suggest, and I think that if he were in the Brewers system we'd be mentioning him as a top-10 guy. Outside of Peralta before his promotion, the only pitcher in the Brewers system who is having a season comparable to his this year is Brown.

 

I'm with you on Burnes + Woodruff or Brown being an overpay, and I'm not sure that the Orioles wouldn't have viewed that as the type of package they would have demanded from the Brewers. I guess my larger point is, while betting on pop-up prospects can be risky, it is perhaps even more foolish to completely discount the added value from breakout seasons, which seems to be the case in much of the analysis I've seen on this trade, primarily citing preseason prospect rankings in panning the return. (Note: I do NOT include the post I'm replying to on this list, just explaining why I'm leery of some of the opinions I was seeing immediately after the trade and why I'm skeptical that the Brewers could have gotten him for as little as some people on here seem to be assuming.)

Yes, he was much better in the 2nd half in 2017, when he was shifted strictly to the pen (only 1 start final 3 months). He had 21 innings as a starter and got rocked. This year he's putting it together in the rotation. To each his own but there's no way he'd currently be rated above Hiura, Peralta, Burnes, Ortiz, Phillips, Ray, Dubon, Erceg, Nottingham, Lutz, Brown, Kodi, Diplan + Turang just to name some then you'd have to figure in Gray/Bello if they're going to be Top 15ish area players. This is the first year Kremer has done this as a starter and he's 1yr young for level. I like him and think he has a MLB arm but it's still in question whether he sticks in the rotation or the pen.

 

I agree that the trade is much more than Diaz + fillers. There's 3-4 MLB caliber players in that deal. I think Pop gets overlooked way too much - dude was a Top 100 player pre-draft. Upper 90s with good slider will play very well in the pen and because he's a college arm and strictly in the pen he can fly through the system. Just to match we'd have to part with 2-3 very strong talents who are 1-1.5yrs away unlike the dudes LA gave up as they're all lower levels except Diaz.

[markedman5]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-scouts-front-office-personnel-viewed-the-machado-trade/

[markedman5]

I'm more confident in Stearns every day

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm more confident in Stearns every day

 

 

Man, the Orioles are stupid. They held out for Burnes, and Stearns held his ground, and the Orioles refused to pivot. Then they basically traded Machado to the Dodgers for the 2017 version of Brett Phillips and a bunch of filler. I'm guessing they could have had a very good starting pitching prospect from the Brewers too (Woodruff or Ortiz is my guess).

 

I kinda hope all those guys they got from the Dodgers bust now.

[Eye Black]

Here is a collection of the David Stearns responses in regards to the Machado negotiations:

 

“We thought we did everything we could to work out a deal and unfortunately we couldn’t.”

 

“Manny Machado is a very good player; he was going to help whatever team he ended up going to, and obviously that includes the Milwaukee Brewers.”

 

“We weren’t able to complete a deal; the Dodgers were. And now we move on.”

 

“We’re going to see plenty of him, and we’re going to do our best to pitch him as tough as we can.”

 

“I think the Dodgers gave up some very good players. I think players that were in the discussion from us were very good players as well. Ultimately, each team gets to evaluate players as they see fit. In any negotiation, in any trade discussion, whether it’s for this player or any other player, there are going to be some players who we aren’t going to part with. In this case, the Orioles determined those were the players who needed to be in the deal and moved in another direction.”

 

“Frankly, we’ve felt like we’ve been in a fairly serious level of competitiveness for the last year and a half. We believe we have a playoff-caliber team. We expect this team to compete for a playoff spot, not only for this year but for years to come.

 

“This time of year, when you believe you have a team that is this talented, it’s our job to explore every opportunity to improve the ball club.”

 

[Joking] “I’m going to take the next two weeks off, let Craig do his thing and see what happens.”

 

“Look, there are a lot of on-going discussions this time of year. Manny Machado is probably going to be the best player traded before the deadline. I think that’s going to be the reality but that doesn’t mean there aren’t other players out there who can potentially help us and we’re going to see if we can find a fit for a deal somewhere.”

 

[sveumrules]

Melvin ran this organization into the ground

 

Prior to Melvin's arrival the Brewers had gone 10 years since their last winning season & 20 years since their last playoff season. They were already in the ground.

 

Melvin (& Mark A) made the franchise relevant again & hopefully Stearns can take us to the next level.

 

I certainly don't view his seeming refusal thus far to budge from what he feels is appropriate value in negotiations as a weakness.