Machado Traded to Dodgers

[homer]

We have a GM who acquired two guys without whom the Brewers wouldn't even be sniffing the playoff race. Those were home run moves.

[JosephC]

I have Diaz as a 51-75 hitter which puts a 25.65 million surplus value on him. Generally all fringe prospects would get a 2.29 million assessment, but I don't think Valera even qualifies for that so I'm putting a zero on him. The other three all get 2.29 million although I had read stuff on Bannon prior to this deal and he's a guy who is probably going to get adjusted up in the rankings pretty quick. So I have 32.52 million dollars in prospect surplus value headed to Baltimore and I'd only put Machado as having 16.25 million dollars in surplus value so it's rather lopsided towards the Orioles. But it was expected that someone would overpay for him. I was anticipating it would get up to around 25 million and IMO, teams really shouldn't go higher than that.

 

If Hiura is off the table, which he should have been, I think it's very hard for Milwaukee to get to that number without including Burnes or Peralta. For the Brewers to match this Dodger offer in terms of surplus value, I think it would have taken a package of Burnes, Woodruff and someone like Demi Orimoloye.

 

Now it will be interesting to see what happens with Logan Forsythe as it sounds like the Dodgers need to move him for luxury tax purposes. He has a .570 OPS and probably has negative surplus value at this point. It will be interesting to see what team steps up and takes the rest of Forsythe's contract for a prospect because I think it's very likely to happen (Rangers? Padres?).

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Jim Callis was just on ESPN. Said they probably got the best player that was offered among all the teams (Diaz). Noted that it is ironic that the Orioles wanted Diaz considering he was an international signing and they avoid that market like the plague. If they spent a little in the international market they could improve there farm system a lot more. He was underwhelmed with the trade and noted that they should have traded him in the offseason and they would have gotten a better return.

 

I think people see Machado as this superstar but just don't fully account for the limited impact a guy can have over 2.5 months as compared to the prospects who have 6 years of control.

 

I'm no expert on these prospects the Orioles got but I'll take a stab at a Brewers equivalent trade:

 

C. Ray (Diaz)

Erceg (Bannon)

Supak (Kremer)

Bickford/Hintzen (Pop)

D. Moore / Orf / H. Perez (Valera)

[ClosetBrewerFan]

My basis for those comps was Sickels preseason 2018 ratings. However, Bannon, Kremer, Pop undoubtedly raised their stock since them with the good year they are having.

 

Sickels had Diaz as 7th best Dodger prospect (Grade B/B-), with the rest below C+. Bannon, Kremer, and Pop were listed under the "Others of note". No mention of Valera.

 

Sickels had ray 10th best (Grade B-), Erceg 7th best (also Grade B-), Bickford and Supak as Grade C+. Moore was not mentioned. Hintzen was just drafted so could not have been officially traded but his #'s this year are closer to Pop's numbers than Bickford. Ray has significantly improved his stock and Erceg has probably dropped a little. Bickford and Supak seem somewhat comparable to Kremer and Pop

[82brewcrew82]

C. Ray (Diaz)

Erceg (Bannon)

Supak (Kremer)

Bickford/Hintzen (Pop)

D. Moore / H. Perez (Valera)

Off the top of my head, I'd go something like this:

 

Burnes (Diaz)

Erceg (Bannon)

Z. Brown (Kremer)

Bickford (Pop)

Neuhaus (Valera)

 

If they valued Diaz more than Burnes we would have to give more somewhere.

[JohnBriggs12]

We have a GM who acquired two guys without whom the Brewers wouldn't even be sniffing the playoff race. Those were home run moves.

 

They were good moves, but acquiring players in the winter is like hitting home runs in the third inning. They're good but not decisive. He has yet to show in back to back years that he can finish the job and get the man he wants in the 9th inning with the season on the line. And there's that releasing Scooter Gennett move too. Say what you want about Doug Melvin, but when he set his sights on the playoffs, he got his man. Twice in fact.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Fans too often ignore the possibility that the organizations are super high on one of the "throw-ins." A guy may be rated low but the team may feel he's undervalued. I think Baltimore did this right. They got a pretty highly touted guy and then some volume. One of those guys is likely to be a starter.

 

I initially wanted Machado but as it dragged on I thought I was being emotional and the best thing for the team was to stay away. I think we learned how Stearns is different from Melvin. I think DM would've done everything to get him and given up way too much, possibly believing he could woo Machado to stay in Milwaukee.

[82brewcrew82]

We have a GM who acquired two guys without whom the Brewers wouldn't even be sniffing the playoff race. Those were home run moves.

 

They were good moves, but acquiring players in the winter is like hitting home runs in the third inning. They're good but not decisive. He has yet to show in back to back years that he can finish the job and get the man he wants in the 9th inning with the season on the line. And there's that releasing Scooter Gennett move too. Say what you want about Doug Melvin, but when he set his sights on the playoffs, he got his man. Twice in fact.

Yeah, I guess your right now that the trading deadline has passed. Might as well pack it up and not even play the remaining games.

[JosephC]

As impressive as Ray has been this season, I don't think he's elevated his stock nearly as much as Diaz. Diaz reached AA for the first time this year and in over 260 plate appearances has a .428 OBP. .428 OBP. And if his date of birth is to be believed, he's actually two months younger than Hiura.

 

My only disappointment as an Orioles fan would that that there was talk of pitching, pitching, pitching...and the headliner isn't a pitcher and IMO the second best guy in this package isn't a pitcher either. I'm only interested in value, but as a fan would have to wonder why one thing was said and the opposite was done. I disagree with Callis in that I think this is a pretty good return for 2.5 months of a player. But I agree big time with Callis in that the Orioles should have traded him when they could have gotten a package worth 6 months of Machado.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

We have a GM who acquired two guys without whom the Brewers wouldn't even be sniffing the playoff race. Those were home run moves.

 

They were good moves, but acquiring players in the winter is like hitting home runs in the third inning. They're good but not decisive. He has yet to show in back to back years that he can finish the job and get the man he wants in the 9th inning with the season on the line. And there's that releasing Scooter Gennett move too. Say what you want about Doug Melvin, but when he set his sights on the playoffs, he got his man. Twice in fact.

 

He has yet to show he can get the man he wants with the season on the line? That's oddly specific criteria. The GM's job is to explore all avenues of acquisition, not jeopardize the franchises for a shiny toy for 1 year. Stearns set his price and didn't budge. That's willpower, frankly the kind an org. like this one needs for sustained success.

 

Sabathia worked out great for us, but the Royals made it to the World Series with our prospects, two of whom were starters, one an absolute cornerstone of their run.

 

Your first sentence is just sports talk gibberish. A move is a move. Trade deadline moves are "decisive." What does that even mean? They're not "decisive" for the teams that make them year after year and go nowhere. You're being super selective and moving the goal line to where you want it.

[homer]

If anything a great off season move is better than an in-season move because you get the value of a full season out of the guys you acquired.

[Boomer5]

We have a GM who acquired two guys without whom the Brewers wouldn't even be sniffing the playoff race. Those were home run moves.

 

We wouldn’t even be discussing Machado if he hadn’t sold incredibly low on Segura and Scooter.

[rickh150]

Brewers have a swing and miss offense and now they have a swing and miss GM to go along with it.

 

He is at a B+ grade in my mind.... needs the playoffs to get to an A-, though. He's done a bunch of things right for a small market club.

[DuWayne Steurer]

We have a GM who acquired two guys without whom the Brewers wouldn't even be sniffing the playoff race. Those were home run moves.

 

We wouldn’t even be discussing Machado if he hadn’t sold incredibly low on Segura and Scooter.

 

 

Segura was traded for Anderson, who's pitched pretty well for us, and Isan Diaz, who was part of the Yelich trade. If that's selling "incredibly low", I'll take that every time.

[Eye Black]

We have a GM who acquired two guys without whom the Brewers wouldn't even be sniffing the playoff race. Those were home run moves.

 

We wouldn’t even be discussing Machado if he hadn’t sold incredibly low on Segura and Scooter.

We would be discussing corner infielders if he hadn’t bought incredibly low to acquire Shaw and Aguilar.

[homer]

We have a GM who acquired two guys without whom the Brewers wouldn't even be sniffing the playoff race. Those were home run moves.

 

We wouldn’t even be discussing Machado if he hadn’t sold incredibly low on Segura and Scooter.

 

Hard to say what the ripple effect might be on those moves....maybe they don't end up with Aguilar.

[clancyphile]

Honestly, I think the Crew dodged a bullet.

 

Machado was gonna leave after 3.5 months at the most.

 

We kept prospects. Now, call up Hiura, acquire Castro, and get the middle infield set.

[stoutdude04]

We have a GM who acquired two guys without whom the Brewers wouldn't even be sniffing the playoff race. Those were home run moves.

 

They were good moves, but acquiring players in the winter is like hitting home runs in the third inning. They're good but not decisive. He has yet to show in back to back years that he can finish the job and get the man he wants in the 9th inning with the season on the line. And there's that releasing Scooter Gennett move too. Say what you want about Doug Melvin, but when he set his sights on the playoffs, he got his man. Twice in fact.

 

Do Homer's in the 3rd count for less than the 8th or 9th?

 

Also, as someone else pointed out...I prefer the full season value of a player.

[jerichoholicninja]

Seems like the Orioles got one actual prospect and a bunch of "meh" filler. Certainly no where near the return some were reporting. On the one hand I'm glad Stearns didn't try to best the offer, but on the other if he just sits on his hands again this year and allows this craptastic offense to waste away another season I'll be disappointed.

[Humans Need Water]

As impressive as Ray has been this season, I don't think he's elevated his stock nearly as much as Diaz. Diaz reached AA for the first time this year and in over 260 plate appearances has a .428 OBP. .428 OBP. And if his date of birth is to be believed, he's actually two months younger than Hiura.

 

My only disappointment as an Orioles fan would that that there was talk of pitching, pitching, pitching...and the headliner isn't a pitcher and IMO the second best guy in this package isn't a pitcher either. I'm only interested in value, but as a fan would have to wonder why one thing was said and the opposite was done. I disagree with Callis in that I think this is a pretty good return for 2.5 months of a player. But I agree big time with Callis in that the Orioles should have traded him when they could have gotten a package worth 6 months of Machado.

Dubon was 3.4yrs young for AA when he first arrived there with Boston and had 5 more PA than Diaz does this year. Dubon slashed 339/371/909....higher BA/OPS than Diaz. And just like Dubon it's not going to continue (CS doesn't count) because that's not the scouting report nor his skill set. It's just a matter of everything clicking for a few months.

 

Diaz's OBP is 110pts above his BA and it's never been above 55 previously nor has he ever had an OPS above 765 prior to AA. His scouting report is consistent from site to site - great bat to ball/on-base skills, limited power, above average speed but has 6 more CS than SB over career so lacks instincts on the bases as well, above avg arm and projects as an avg RF (already moving him off of CF) but given his limited power he'll most likely have to shift over to LF. This absolutely isn't the scouting report I expect to read from a player ranked where he is. Everything about him reads as great 4th OF/maybe avg starter. I'll personally take Phillips and Ray over him at this point.

 

I agree that it's a good total package as there are likely 3 MLB players here barring injury and maybe a 4th. I think Pop will be the most valuable when it's all said and done. I think the O's really wanted Burnes or May and when neither team went that far they shifted toward Diaz as they deemed him to then be the best player offered in any package. I'd really love to know what Stearns final offer was.

[danzig6767]

We wouldn’t even be discussing Machado if he hadn’t sold incredibly low on Segura and Scooter.

Segura changed his career while in winter ball after Luis Mercedes persuaded Segura to lower his hands and he hasn't stopped hitting since. Unfortunately, that happened after the trade.

 

If any blame towards the Brewers should be placed, it should be on our hitting instructors for not making a similar suggestion, assuming they didn't.

[reillymcshane]

So what would the Brewers equivalent to this deal be?

I'll take a stab.

 

I'm guessing something like Brandon Woodruff (technically not a prospect anymore, but was in the 80-100 area prior to graduating) is an okay 'value' comparison to Diaz. Diaz is around #75 on prospect lists, but in reality, guys in the top 75-100 are pretty interchangeable. Woodruff has been okay this year, while Diaz has gotten better. However, Diaz is at AA, while Woodruff is working in the majors and AAA. It also (probably) helps that Woodruff is pretty much major league ready.

 

So I'm just going to call them even.

 

As for the other guys, they now slot in at #13 and #17 on the Orioles ranks. I'm guessing that's about 10 slots or so above the Brewer system. So, let's say that equates to Trey Supak and Payton Henry.

 

So, an equivalent is - roughly - Woodruff, Supak, Henry and a couple of other throw-ins for 2.5 months of Machado.

 

Just me making up stuff.

 

Also, as others have noted, these rankings are often from the start of 2018 - so it's hard to trust them. Plus (again, as noted by others), so people just like specific players more than others. The O's might have looked at Woodruff (not that we actually offered him) and didn't like something about him. And they may just love Diaz. The guy has some serious on base skills (.428 this year). And more walks than strikeouts. The O's might have just seen something special in the guy that made him worth a lot more to them than other teams.

[sveumrules]

We wouldn’t even be discussing Machado if he hadn’t sold incredibly low on Segura and Scooter.

 

Jean Segura, last two seasons with Brewers: 1141 PA | 65 wRC+ (116th of 117 qualifiers). WAR: 0.2 (112th of 117 qualifiers).

 

Scooter Gennett, last two seasons with Brewers: 933 PA | 86 wRC+ (149th of 164 players with at least 900 PA). WAR: 0.4 (156th of 164 players with at least 900 PA).

 

It's difficult to sell incredibly low on players who had no value by virtue of their own measurably terrible performance.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Are we sure that Kremer wouldn't be significantly higher on prospect lists if they came out today? I don't know any more than is available on the mlb.com write-up on his actual stuff, but his first two full seasons kind of remind me of Brandon Woodruff's, except with an even better K-rate (in that he was significantly better in the second half after being moved straight up to A+ in his first full season and then came back and posted very good stats relative to league at A+ until getting promoted the following year). Plus you have the fact that he has less pitching experience than the typical college draftee. There's a chance his value is closer to Brown than Supak (and this is coming from someone who has Brown as a possible top 5 prospect in the Brewers system).

[JosephC]

As impressive as Ray has been this season, I don't think he's elevated his stock nearly as much as Diaz. Diaz reached AA for the first time this year and in over 260 plate appearances has a .428 OBP. .428 OBP. And if his date of birth is to be believed, he's actually two months younger than Hiura.

 

My only disappointment as an Orioles fan would that that there was talk of pitching, pitching, pitching...and the headliner isn't a pitcher and IMO the second best guy in this package isn't a pitcher either. I'm only interested in value, but as a fan would have to wonder why one thing was said and the opposite was done. I disagree with Callis in that I think this is a pretty good return for 2.5 months of a player. But I agree big time with Callis in that the Orioles should have traded him when they could have gotten a package worth 6 months of Machado.

 

I was wrong about this. Diaz reached AA for the first time last year and had 118 AA plate appearanes in 2017. In 382 plate appearances as a AA player, he's posted a slash line of .320/.416/.482/.898.