Jack Zduriencik's drafts - Part 1: 2000

[Awild102]

Good article. Experts generally agree that drafts can be properly evaluated after about 5 years, making this a very timely article. Zduriencik's 2000 draft has a glaring lack of worthwhile pitching which continues to be a problem through 2004. Krynzel and Hart are the two last men standing, so it will be interesting to see what happens with them in 2005.

 

BA: Brewers 2000 Draft List

Quote:

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Players Signed:

1. David Krynzel, of Green Valley HS, Henderson, Nev.

2. (Choice to Braves as compensation for Type A free agent Jose Hernandez)

3. Dane Artman, lhp Westminster Academy, Ft. Lauderdale

4. Eric Henderson, lhp North Carolina

5. Jason Belcher, c Walnut Ridge (Ark.) HS

6. Bryan Hicks, of Natchitoches Central HS, Natchitoches, La.

7. Gerard Oakes, rhp Archbishop Carroll HS, Upper Darby, Pa.

8. Bill Scott, of UCLA

9. Ryan Miller, rhp Evansville

10. Brian Nielsen, lhp Seminole HS, Sanford, Fla.

11. Jon Hart, of Greenwood HS, Bowling Green, Ky.

12. Heath McMurray, rhp Louisiana State

13. Matt Yeatman, rhp Tomball (Texas) HS

14. Todd West, ss Texas

15. Daniel Hall, rhp Campbell

17. Daryl Clark, 3b UNC Charlotte

18. Jonah McClanahan, of Monterey (Calif.) HS

19. Zach Thompson, of Callaway HS, Jackson, Miss.

21. Jeremy Shorey, rhp Lisbon (Maine) HS

22. Scott Candelaria, ss New Mexico

24. Jude Voltz, 1b Mississippi

27. Travis Hake, ss/2b Carson-Newman (Tenn.) College

32. Kelly Werner, lhp Minnesota

37. Shaun Gragg, c Central Michigan

42. Byron Batson, rhp Campbell

43. Kevin Shrout, rhp Virginia

44. Mike Shwam, rhp Cal State San Luis Obispo

49. Ryan Nohr, of Diablo Valley (Calif.) JC

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[colbyjack]

Feel free to check out the discussion about this article which was posted on the Major League forum when the article was released:

 

p082.ezboard.com/fbrewers...7194.topic

[Awild102]

Thanks for the link colbyjack. As a new poster, I appreciate the tip.

[tlpc4]

I think what needs to be further defined is what is a Grade C draft and what is a A draft.

 

To do that you need to keep in mind that there are only 25 men in the majors and that getting 2 to 3 players a draft nets out to 10 to 15 players over 5 years which is a significant overhaul of a roster.

 

More important than quanity is quality. Drafting a Hall of Famer is a huge upgrade and needs to be judged accordingly.

 

Here is a stab at some guidelines. I am looking for some input on how you would change them.

 

A

1 Hall of Famer(Yount, Molitor) or Perenial All-Star(Sheets)

2 Solid starters who occasianally have All-Star seasons(Jenkins)

Several(5 or more) marginal to solid starters(Ginter, Helms, Santos)

 

B

1 Solid starters who occasianally has an All-Star seasons plus one or more marginal to solid starters.

 

C

2 marginal to solid starters

 

D

1 marginal to solid starters

 

F

Nothing

[colbyjack]

We kind of talked about the grading system on the thread provided above.

 

I think if you get a Hall of Famer in any draft, that automatically makes it an A+, or a grade that can't be explained by letter value. An A to me consittutes one really good player, like Ben Sheets, or 2-3 solid everyday players that prove to be productive over a longer period of time. I think the '99 draft would garner an "A" for Sheets.

 

A "B" would be getting one or two solid, everyday players, which is what the 2000 draft likely will max out to be. A "B" could also be obtained by 1 solid starter and a couple of Major Leaguers that provide depth, such as some combination of a couple of bench players, a 5th starter, a relief pitcher, etc. The '95 draft with Geoff Jenkins would probably get a solid B to B+. Mike Kinkade and Travis Smith also were '95 draftees.

 

A "C" would likely be either one everyday regular or just getting depth as listed in the "B" category. I would probably give the '94 draft a "C+" since Steve Woodard & Ron Belliard, while showing flashes of brilliance, didn't stick around long enough. Belliard's emergence may make it a B, since you can't blame the scouting department for the GM's inability to realize he had a solid player. Robinson Cancel did fill in as a backup catcher in the late 90s.

 

A "D" would probably just be 1 or maybe two players that provide depth. The '98 draft would likely be a D or D- with Billy Hall, but in a few years '98 likely will grab an "F" since Neugie & Gold fell so hard. The '96 draft might be another D candidate since Kevin Barker & Allen Levrault made it but had very brief careers.

 

And like you said, an "F" is nothing. The '97 draft would probably be given an F since Matt Childers is all that's left and he may not even be in the organization when spring training rolls around, while Bucky Jacobsen left for nothing.

[tlpc4]

Thanks Colby, sorry for the duplication

[colbyjack]

For those of you that may not visit every forum or possibly even the homepage, I just wanted to point out that the second part of my 4-part series looking back at Jack Zduriencik's drafts has been posted on the homepage. The discussion for this story has been posted by Brewerfan.net's battlebot on the Major League forum:

 

p082.ezboard.com/fbrewers...7237.topic

 

I hope you enjoy the story.

[jwaltz]

Excellent work, as always, Patrick. I enjoyed the article. Thanks.

[colbyjack]

Part 3 is up on the homepage, focusing on 2002. Battlebot has posted a thread on the MLB forum here:

 

p082.ezboard.com/fbrewers...7306.topic

[colbyjack]

The 4th and final installment of the draft retrospect series is up on the homepage. Battlebot posted a thread on the MLB forum, but there are far more important and interesting things to talk about these days in Brewerland.

 

Here's the link to the story in case you don't visit the homepage regularly:

 

www.brewerfan.net/ViewArt...icleId=196

 

As always, I'm interested in hearing your thoughts.

[Awild102]

In 2002, Jack Zduriencik drafted 1st-rounder 1B-Prince Fielder (#7 overall, $2.4 million) and 2nd-rounder SS-Josh Murray (# 48 overall, $825,000). Murray played at Tampa (FL) Jesuit HS, while right across Tampa Bay, Cubs 2nd-rounder 1B-Brian Dopirak (#56 overall, $740,000) played at Dunedin (FL) HS. Dopirak (2004 stats below) was the Cubs 2004 Minor League Player of the Year and is headed to AA in 2005. Although Fielder is headed to AAA, Murray has failed to produce. For $1 million less than the $3.25 million Zduriencik spent on the Fielder/Murray combo, he could have gotten Dopirak and Padres 1st-rounder SS-Khalil Greene (#13 overall, $1.5 million). For a low-budget team like the Brewers, $1 million saved is a lot. Also, in 2002, 10 out of Zduriencik's 42 draft picks were from the state of Florida. Isn't that an awfully high percentage of Florida kids?

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...ign02.html

 

www.baseballamerica.com/c...%2C+prince

 

www.baseballamerica.com/c...k%2C+brian

 

www.baseballamerica.com/c...ay%2C+josh

[colbyjack]

Interesting little exercise Awild comparing Fielder & Murray to Dopirak & Greene. The power of hindsight! I'm not sure if you remember or not, but Khalil Greene's name was associated with the Brewers for a little while after they had signed Manny Parra to such a large deal. At one point the Brewers thought about taking a more signable pick given the money they had already invested. Although we wouldn't have saved $1 million since it would have taken more to sign Greene several slots higher, and the same goes for Dopriak.

 

Also, in 2002, 10 out of Zduriencik's 42 draft picks were from the state of Florida. Isn't that an awfully high percentage of Florida kids?

 

This is something we talked about back then, and I wondered if it was somewhat of a farewell gift to Florida area scout Tom McNamara, who left the Brewers after the 2002 scouting season.

 

Otherwise, while it may seem odd, the Brewers might have determined that it was a good year to mine Florida harder than usual, which always produces a tremendous amount of athletic talent. And 10 out of 42 really isn't that much considering the best talent typically comes from Florida, Calfornia & Texas (the Brewers under Jack Z. have definitely kept a more watchful eye on Florida than California & Texas though, even with the Area Code California conneciton). The previous year the Brewers hit Arizona pretty hard, with three Arizona players selected within the top 10 rounds (Jones, Hardy & Sarfate).