Whit Merrifield

[Humans Need Water]

2b isn't a position of need. People speak as if Hiura is 2yrs away and we need to fill a gaping hole until then. This dude is an elite prospect with an elite bat who's on the same path as Braun/Yelich (also Top 20 bat-first prospects). Hiura will be up in May/June, assuming they want to keep the extra control. He can realistically post 275/325/765 in 2019. That's not that far off from the player Whit is. Even guys like Mayo are saying during the AZFL AS game that Hiura's bat trails only Vlad Jr in the minors. And yesterday some AL scout said Hiura's pure power is trailing only Vlad Jr in the AZFL and that he's a special, special kid. Add to that the Brewers themselves said Hiura's bat was MLB ready back in March during ST where he hit 419 as a late game sub vs AA/AAA/MLB caliber players - and at that time he never saw a pitch above A ball. Hiura had a brutal final month in AA but was hitting 299 heading into that final month. Now he's ripping up the AZFL.

 

Whit's BABIP this year was 45-50pts higher than usual. His statcast numbers over his career don't do him any favors either. Hard hit rate of 30% (7-20% below Shaw, Aguilar, Braun, Cain, Yelich, etc). Barrel rate of 4.5-5 (Moose 8.8 and everyone else except Cain is double digits). Average exit velocity of 86.5-87mph (2-5mph below Shaw, Aguilar, Braun, Cain, Yelich, etc). He ranks like 240-250th in MLB in these categories - in the greater ballpark of Schoop, Arcia, Pina. There's no way he keeps up these slash lines in 3-4yrs when his speed starts going. Let someone either overpay for him or wait until the price falls into your lap (ie he's a very good depth piece for us moving forward so treat the return as such).

[Austin Tatious]

I agree with Humans. Let’s let it play out with our player development. We can still add significant juice to a strong roster if we stay the course. That group from the aughts had a shortage of new additions once the initial group from Weeks through Braun was up.

 

With this generation, we’ve got guys we can keep adding and hopefully we can have a longer and stronger window when the cavalry keeps bringing players with upside to the MLB team.

 

Stearns is on record as saying that Hiura has exceeded expectations defensively. For a GM who’s normally cautious with what he says, that’s a telling statement.

[Dadbauer]

A lot of people see this and say "Hiura could be just as good or better than Whit" and then dismiss the idea, but we aren't trying to trade Hiura FOR Whit. Lets just assume that Whit and Hiura have the same offensive season for the next two years. If we got Whit for a smaller package and then used Hiura for lets say Realmuto, then we would be a much better team. In this scenario, would you rather have Whit and Realmuto or Hiura and Pina? Long term, probably Hiura, but we were a game away from the WS last year. We could realistically win it NEXT YEAR. People might then cry "just sign Grandal and then you have Hiura and Grandal." But then we have less money to sign pitching.

 

So in that scenario, would you rather have: Hiura, Grandal and Gio Gonzalez or Merrifield, Realmuto and Eovaldi? This is of course totally never going to happen, I'm just curious.

[KeithStone53151]

A lot of people see this and say "Hiura could be just as good or better than Whit" and then dismiss the idea, but we aren't trying to trade Hiura FOR Whit. Lets just assume that Whit and Hiura have the same offensive season for the next two years. If we got Whit for a smaller package and then used Hiura for lets say Realmuto, then we would be a much better team. In this scenario, would you rather have Whit and Realmuto or Hiura and Pina? Long term, probably Hiura, but we were a game away from the WS last year. We could realistically win it NEXT YEAR. People might then cry "just sign Grandal and then you have Hiura and Grandal." But then we have less money to sign pitching.

 

So in that scenario, would you rather have: Hiura, Grandal and Gio Gonzalez or Merrifield, Realmuto and Eovaldi? This is of course totally never going to happen, I'm just curious.

 

It has been extremely thoroughly outlined in the Realmuto thread that no team is giving up an elite prospect for Realmuto, and Hiura falls in that category. So the scenario of Hiura/Pina vs Whit/Realmuto isn't a very realistic scenario. I'd be a bit more receptive to Hiura/5th starter vs Whit/Degrom, but I don't really like Whit as a player beyond a year or two. Humans presented some very good evidence regarding his batted ball profile that speaks volumes to how good Whit will be going forward, especially as he loses speed with age.

[3and2Fastball]

....would you rather have Whit and Realmuto or Hiura and Pina?

 

I'd rather have Hiura & Pina.

 

I think Pina is generally underrated. He's a fantastic defensive catcher, a great leader and his hitting is solid enough for me. Meanwhile we'd have (we will have) 6 years of Hiura and his plus plus bat.

[pacopete4]

For this team next year? It is easily Whit & Realmuto. Those guys would transform the lineup once again. Pina is a nice catcher that would be a great backup on a really good team while Hiura is still going to take some time.

[KeithStone53151]

For this team next year? It is easily Whit & Realmuto. Those guys would transform the lineup once again. Pina is a nice catcher that would be a great backup on a really good team while Hiura is still going to take some time.

 

I couldn't disagree more on Hiura. All signs point to him being ready to be an impact bat when called upon next year. He's not similar to a Brinson/Baez type profile where he has holes in his swing that MLB pitchers can exploit early on. He's a complete hitter and his bat has been ready to be an impact bat probably since draft day. There are probably at least a dozen elite hitting prospects that have come up and been impact bats immediately just in the last couple years. Bellinger, Judge, Lindor, Bryant, Acuna, Albies, etc...I could probably list 5 or 6 more pretty easily. The guy Hiura's bat is consistently compared to...Braun...had a 1004 OPS his rookie season. I'm anticipating Hiura being an 800+ ops guy from the day he walks onto an mlb diamond.

[TURBO]

Man, all the talk on the boards of trading Hiura... Hate to see it.

 

This is a guy that could be our cornerstone for a decade and so many people want to include him in a 1 or two year rental trade?

 

No thanks.

 

I'd rather be patient, and watch this kid pay immense dividends in the very near future.

[pacopete4]

"For this team next year" was what I included for a reason. I have been a huge advocate of holding onto Hiura. He's going to be a stud. But I would still take Realmuto/Merrifield over Pina and Hiura on this team for next year. If we are playing the long game, as we should, then Hiura shouldn't really be moved for just about anyone.

[sveumrules]

The guy Hiura's bat is consistently compared to...Braun...had a 1004 OPS his rookie season. I'm anticipating Hiura being an 800+ ops guy from the day he walks onto an mlb diamond.

 

Hiura was at 272/339/416 (116 wRC+) at AA last year, so only a 755 OPS there. For comparison Braun hit 303/367/589 (176 wRC+) at AA. Hiura is a great hitting prospect, but I think he's clearly a notch behind Braun at this point.

 

Last season it looks like Baez (880), Scooter (847), Altuve (837), Merrifield (806) & Lowrie (801) were the only 2B over an 800 OPS, so if Keston can hit that mark from the get go he'll be in some pretty impressive company.

[rickh150]

Signs fairly low extension, 4 years for 16 million thru His arby years. He must be looking at the 2B still out there.....not getting offers.

[jerichoholicninja]

Signs fairly low extension, 4 years for 16 million thru His arby years. He must be looking at the 2B still out there.....not getting offers.

 

When I saw they were discussing an extension I thought how stupid of the Royals, no reason to spend money to extend a 30 year old when you're rebuilding. Now that I see for how much, it seems like he must really want to stay in Kansas City. Which is kind of ironic because this deal certainly just upped his trade value.

[TURBO]

Signs fairly low extension, 4 years for 16 million thru His arby years. He must be looking at the 2B still out there.....not getting offers.

 

When I saw they were discussing an extension I thought how stupid of the Royals, no reason to spend money to extend a 30 year old when you're rebuilding. Now that I see for how much, it seems like he must really want to stay in Kansas City. Which is kind of ironic because this deal certainly just upped his trade value.

 

Maybe that is why he signed that deal? Maybe he wants out of KC badly, and now that he is even more tradeable, he figures this is his ticket out?

[Lathund]

I don't think we should read too much into this. It's just a deal to buy out his arbitration years (And one pre-arb year); for Merrifield it gives financial security, no risk of being non-tendered if his performance falls off. That in exchange for giving up some money if he keeps playing the way he has so far.

[adambr2]

I don't think we should read too much into this. It's just a deal to buy out his arbitration years (And one pre-arb year); for Merrifield it gives financial security, no risk of being non-tendered if his performance falls off. That in exchange for giving up some money if he keeps playing the way he has so far.

 

Exactly. As good as Whit has been, he's never made over 570K in a season and he's on the wrong side of 30. It's your classic run of the mill lifetime financial security in exchange for discount to team deal. The Royals get a bargain and no matter what happens going forward with Whit he is set financially for life. Good for everyone.

[MrTPlush]

That is the life of being a 30+ year old and not even to arbitration yet. To get max dollar you have to play it out in your 30s or take a small deal.

[long ball]

I agree with the posters here. Makes sense from both sides.

 

I saw a lot of virtue signaling on twitter last night when the news broke. Both sides gave something up in order to work out this contract. Merrifield hasn't earned the right of free agency so in order to get a guaranteed contract he had to take a discount.

[RollieTime]

Whit would fit in perfectly in the Yelich window and is under contract for 4/$21 million with the 4th year being an option year at $6.5 million. He can take over the Perez role while playing almost every day and giving different guys days off as needed.

 

One option is using him in right field most of the time, moving Yelich to left and Braun to first full time. Whit would fit at the top of the lineup nicely with Cain and Yelich.

[adambr2]

Whit would fit in perfectly in the Yelich window and is under contract for 4/$21 million with the 4th year being an option year at $6.5 million. He can take over the Perez role while playing almost every day and giving different guys days off as needed.

 

One option is using him in right field most of the time, moving Yelich to left and Braun to first full time. Whit would fit at the top of the lineup nicely with Cain and Yelich.

 

Sure, but he's going to be way more expensive than people realize. You'd need to have multiple solid trade chips to have a chance of getting it done without a major one and even then I doubt the Royals do it. Would have to start with a bid of say, Burnes + Turang + Grisham.

[RollieTime]

Whit would fit in perfectly in the Yelich window and is under contract for 4/$21 million with the 4th year being an option year at $6.5 million. He can take over the Perez role while playing almost every day and giving different guys days off as needed.

 

One option is using him in right field most of the time, moving Yelich to left and Braun to first full time. Whit would fit at the top of the lineup nicely with Cain and Yelich.

 

Sure, but he's going to be way more expensive than people realize. You'd need to have multiple solid trade chips to have a chance of getting it done without a major one and even then I doubt the Royals do it. Would have to start with a bid of say, Burnes + Turang + Grisham.

 

I would probably do that, but I would prefer moving Peralta over Burnes.

[adambr2]

How about this one?

[attachment=0]20191116_180046.jpg[/attachment]

[RollieTime]

Not a bad proposal. Taking on Perez’s contract of 2/$28.4 million and Merrifield adds almost $20 million to the payroll. We would have our catching situation figured out, outfield locked up, and if Braun moved to first full time, it could make some sense. If one of SS or 3B was addressed and the rest was put into bringing back Pomeranz and bringing in a starter, I could live with it. I would be comfortable rolling with Shaw in this scenario if SS was addressed.

[JosephC]

Not a bad proposal. Taking on Perez’s contract of 2/$28.4 million and Merrifield adds almost $20 million to the payroll. We would have our catching situation figured out, outfield locked up, and if Braun moved to first full time, it could make some sense. If one of SS or 3B was addressed and the rest was put into bringing back Pomeranz and bringing in a starter, I could live with it. I would be comfortable rolling with Shaw in this scenario if SS was addressed.

 

It's a pitiful proposal for the Royals. The fatal flaw is the idea that the Royals would be desperate to dump Perez but they are not. He is loved by the fan base and is well regarded by the organization. They have run a 140 million payroll in the past, could easily operate at the 100 million level and are currently projected to sit at 76 million for 2020 so there is zero motivation for them to discount Merrifield in order to move Perez's salary.

 

If Merrifield hits the market there would be at least 10 teams that would make offers that would more than double the value of the Brewers offer in this proposal.

[adambr2]

Not a bad proposal. Taking on Perez’s contract of 2/$28.4 million and Merrifield adds almost $20 million to the payroll. We would have our catching situation figured out, outfield locked up, and if Braun moved to first full time, it could make some sense. If one of SS or 3B was addressed and the rest was put into bringing back Pomeranz and bringing in a starter, I could live with it. I would be comfortable rolling with Shaw in this scenario if SS was addressed.

 

It's a pitiful proposal for the Royals. The fatal flaw is the idea that the Royals would be desperate to dump Perez but they are not. He is loved by the fan base and is well regarded by the organization. They have run a 140 million payroll in the past, could easily operate at the 100 million level and are currently projected to sit at 76 million for 2020 so there is zero motivation for them to discount Merrifield in order to move Perez's salary.

 

If Merrifield hits the market there would be at least 10 teams that would make offers that would more than double the value of the Brewers offer in this proposal.

 

I don't think they'd actually take it, either, for the reasons you stated, but it's not a bad proposal for the Royals. Perez is overrated and overpaid, there's a reason he's pegged for that much negative value by the trade site. Just because he is loved by the fan base does not increase his actual value.

 

I agree that they can get better offers without dumping Perez, but I definitely disagree that there's going to be 10 teams offering trades of 50M or more or surplus value-- very much doubt that. They've already made Merrifield available before his extension and no one met their asking price.

[Jopal78]

Think of the Yelich trade and compare it to this one. The Brewers gave up ,at the time, a consensus top 50 prospect who was MLB ready. Plus three other well regarded minor league players across multiple levels of their system.

 

Without Merrifield and Perez the Royals would be devoid of talent. Lutz and Feliciano might be great players but they’re equally as likely to fizzle out at AAA it’s hard to predict when they are multiple years away. Further, after his 2019 season, Burnes has legitimate questions about him mainly whether he can find consistent success at the major league level. Those players won’t be enough to entice Kansas City into gutting their major league team.