Whit Merrifield

[pacopete4]

 

For what it's worth, I do agree with you on Hiura. I love the guy, think he is going to have a very special bat at a position we need. He's destroying the AFL right now. He's about ready, at least bat-wise.

 

I just have a ton of faith in Stearns where even if I didn't agree if they moved Hiura, I'd be thinking, "They HAVE to know something we don't." . That's all.

 

I have a ton of faith too but so far Stearns has been terrible at judging the second base position. So that lessens my faith a bit since they have been so dead wrong in just about every move they’ve made there. But like you said, if they sold high on Hiura it probably would be for a reason we are not privy too.

[jjfanec]

They can trade Huira but Merrifield would be a disappointing return. If you trade Huira it should be a starting pitcher not a 30 year old 2b

[rickh150]

Getting Whit and then having his versatility for four years..... that would be Stearnslike.

If Hiura has a special bat in the bigs, Merrifield would take over Perez's role.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm a bit surprised we are still on Whit. The price sounds prohibitive, and he's not as good as someone like yelich where you can justify the package. Yelich was a blue-chip prospect when he came up and was 26 at time of acquisition while Merrifield will be 30 and a large part of what makes him a good player is speed...which will only diminish with time. 2 years from now he's likely to be a 280 hitter with minimal power that can steal 20 bases on weak catchers and play solid D. Basically he's what we wish Hernan Perez would have become. Hiura/Burnes/Peralta are all off limits and all probably more valuable than Whit. Peralta is the only one that's even close but no way would I give up the pitching for him. I'd have Peralta headline a package for Realmuto before Whit.

 

All of Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff had their values skyrocket with their success on such a big stage. I would actually argue that Burnes has more value than Hiura at this point and would be our number 1 prospect if eligible. Young, controllable pitching is king.

[Boomer5]

That's not fair. There's no way Ray won't be ranked in the Top 100 the next time it comes out. None.

 

I would strongly bet against him being ranked in the top 100.

 

He may be towards the bottom. Power and speed will be intriguing. His average defense and his low hit tool will mean he won’t be a MLB regular.

 

I hope he is ranked because I’d classify him as a sell high candidate for a more useful asset.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

That's not fair. There's no way Ray won't be ranked in the Top 100 the next time it comes out. None.

 

I would strongly bet against him being ranked in the top 100.

 

He may be towards the bottom. Power and speed will be intriguing. His average defense and his low hit tool will mean he won’t be a MLB regular.

 

I hope he is ranked because I’d classify him as a sell high candidate for a more useful asset.

 

Stats don't lie. Ray put up a very good overall season in Biloxi this year ... good enough to beat out several solid candidates for the team's Player of the Year award. I would love to see that average a little higher, as I'm sure everyone would, but there just isn't a lot of guys who hit for a high average in that league. Just look at the seemingly average numbers Hiura put up there.

 

It will be very interesting to see if he's used as trade currency, or if they stick with him, because if he's here, I fully expect him to rake in San Antonio next year.

 

And yes, I think he makes it as a Top 100 guy.

[OldHeidelberg]

The only way I think you could add Whit without Hiura is including one of Burnes/Peralta, adding Ray plus a pretty darn good 3rd prospect.

 

If you could get it done with Peralta+Ray+Erceg, I'd consider that to be realistic, but on the light side and fortunate to get it done without Hiura.

 

I think the Brewers would give up way too much there, it seems like you are adding Peralta+Ray in place of Hiura, I would think those 2 combined have more value than him. That is 2 of our top 5 prospects and if Peralta hadn't graduated he would probably be ranked above them. Maybe they have to give up similar value but it would be more quantity like the Yellich trade. Ray and Erceg plus a couple of guys ranked in 10-20 range seems more like what you usually see in trades like this. You could be right that is what it would take but I don't think the Brewers would give up that much unless it was for a pitcher. I would love to have Merrifield as he would really fill a need but I don't think he is the player Yellich was when we traded for him. I guess he is cheaper though.

[And That]

A top 100 list is completely arbitrary in number (why 100?) and largely arbitrary when comparing different lists (especially after #50 or so) in population. People in baseball front offices do not look at top 100 lists. They do not care if Corey Ray is on a top 100 list. They will or will not like a given player because of the scouting and analytic work that they've put into him. The Royals may well like Ray because he's played well when they've seen him. The opposite may be true as well. Where BA has him doesn't matter.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

A top 100 list is completely arbitrary in number (why 100?) and largely arbitrary when comparing different lists (especially after #50 or so) in population. People in baseball front offices do not look at top 100 lists. They do not care if Corey Ray is on a top 100 list. They will or will not like a given player because of the scouting and analytic work that they've put into him. The Royals may well like Ray because he's played well when they've seen him. The opposite may be true as well. Where BA has him doesn't matter.

 

I agree with you completely. Me saying he's a Top 100 guy is more of an argument that he would have a high value in a potential deal, to a poster poo-pooing a deal that "doesn't include a Top 100 prospect". In hindsight, I probably just should have said "So what if he isn't?"

 

Personally, I think we get way too caught up on these arbitrary prospect ranking lists. I think we have a lot of guys in the system that have a high value, despite the fact that they aren't on Top 100 lists. Those tend to be biased toward teams that market the heck out of their minor leaguers as well.

[long ball]

I'm sorta at the point in my "arm chair GM" analysis/wish list of identifying traits that I would target in a player. Lower K%, above average OBP, Good defender, versatile defender, hits high velocity well, makes hard contact at a high rate, etc. I think at this point it's sort of pointless to name specific players since we don't necessarily know who is available outside of players who are already free agents. Even with free agents we don't know what the market will be like. I don't think anyone predicted and off season like last year.

 

That player pool is going to grow after the options are declined/exercised, non-tender deadline, DFAs, etc. Then we will start to hear which players may be available via trade or internationally.

 

Whit Merrifield is a player who has attributes that I like and I think would fit well into this team. That assessment is independent of whether he's available and what the cost of acquisition would be.

[Dadbauer]

I keep coming back to Whit! One of the writers on Fangraphs suggested that he thinks the main piece to get him would be someone on the back end of a top 100 list. Corey Ray? One of our 3 graduated young pitchers? Merrified is a good right handed bat at a position of need with tons of control - likes to steal bases and hit for average. Would allow us to move Hiura for a big time pitcher (Paxton, Kluber, maybe) or else someone like Realmuto and then spend the money saved on Moose and Schoop (non-tendered) on either a catcher or pitcher (whichever we didn't trade for.)

[JohnBriggs12]

I keep coming back to Whit! One of the writers on Fangraphs suggested that he thinks the main piece to get him would be someone on the back end of a top 100 list. Corey Ray? One of our 3 graduated young pitchers? Merrified is a good right handed bat at a position of need with tons of control - likes to steal bases and hit for average. Would allow us to move Hiura for a big time pitcher (Paxton, Kluber, maybe) or else someone like Realmuto and then spend the money saved on Moose and Schoop (non-tendered) on either a catcher or pitcher (whichever we didn't trade for.)

 

Well stated Dadbauer. A deal for Merrifield could set up other moves. Not only does he play a position of need, he's versatile and Brewers love versatility.

Imagine an offseason haul of Paxton, Realmuto, and Merrifield while retaining at least one of the top 3 young arms.

[RollieTime]

I keep coming back to Whit! One of the writers on Fangraphs suggested that he thinks the main piece to get him would be someone on the back end of a top 100 list. Corey Ray? One of our 3 graduated young pitchers? Merrified is a good right handed bat at a position of need with tons of control - likes to steal bases and hit for average. Would allow us to move Hiura for a big time pitcher (Paxton, Kluber, maybe) or else someone like Realmuto and then spend the money saved on Moose and Schoop (non-tendered) on either a catcher or pitcher (whichever we didn't trade for.)

 

I can get behind this. If we could acquire Merrifield without giving up Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, or Hiura, I would be all for it. If the deal is centered around Ray, I would pull the trigger on it. Yelich and Cain are manning the outfield for possibly the next 4 years. We still have Braun for two more seasons and Santana as the next man up.

 

Signing a catcher like Ramos with the saved money by moving on from Schoop would make a lot of sense in this situation as a secondary move.

[mattyo]

I would be okay with a move for Merrifield only if it doesnt cost any of our top 3 young pitchers or Hiura, and we make corresponding moves to continue improving our team. Problem is- we move Merrifield then Hiura becomes expendable, and although still a great prospect, teams will know we need to move him, therefore hurting our leverage.

 

Oh and for the record - i dont think we get him without trading at least one of Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff/Hiura.

[KeithStone53151]

I've been extremely negative on Whit, but if he costed Ray plus a couple throw-ins...I'd do that deal. My opinion is, I don't think Whit maintains this level of production for more than a 2-3 years...and then he'll have expensive arbitration years of mediocre production at best. That's part of why I wouldn't want to trade one of those pitchers for him, but someone like Ray would be fine with me. I think there are half a dozen teams that would give up that caliber of a prospect for Whit though.

[KeithStone53151]

I would be okay with a move for Merrifield only if it doesnt cost any of our top 3 young pitchers or Hiura, and we make corresponding moves to continue improving our team. Problem is- we move Merrifield then Hiura becomes expendable, and although still a great prospect, teams will know we need to move him, therefore hurting our leverage.

 

Oh and for the record - i dont think we get him without trading at least one of Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff/Hiura.

 

I think we'd be able to rotate enough with Whit and Hiura up that it would be ok. Whit has enough positional flexibility, maybe by that point Braun is dealing with a nagging injury and needs a few days. Or maybe the general plan is to make Braun's move to 1b more of a priority and get him more reps over the offseason. Clear a spot for Domingo/Ray...or Whit. There's a lot we can do with a guy that has positional flexbility.

[JosephC]

I keep coming back to Whit! One of the writers on Fangraphs suggested that he thinks the main piece to get him would be someone on the back end of a top 100 list. Corey Ray? One of our 3 graduated young pitchers? Merrified is a good right handed bat at a position of need with tons of control - likes to steal bases and hit for average. Would allow us to move Hiura for a big time pitcher (Paxton, Kluber, maybe) or else someone like Realmuto and then spend the money saved on Moose and Schoop (non-tendered) on either a catcher or pitcher (whichever we didn't trade for.)

 

I have to disagree with the Fangraphs writer in a big way. By Fangraphs own numbers, Merrifield had a 4.05 WAR average over the last two seasons (2.9 WAR in 2017, 5.2 WAR in 2018). Depth Chart and Steamer both project him to 2.7 WAR in 2019. Even if one gets really pessimistic with the numbers, hard for me to think that anyone would project Merrifield much lower than 2.7, 2.2, 1.7 and 1.2 WAR over the next four seasons. That's 7.8 WAR total over that timeframe. From other articles I've read, it seems that Fangraphs is using 1 WAR = 9 million for 2018. That number creeps up as time goes on. Let's just say over the next four years, 1 WAR = 9.5 million. That puts Merrifield at 7.8 * 9.5 = 74.1 million which is an extremely conservative estimate. Take another guess that he makes something like 0.6 + 5.5 + 7.5 + 10.5 million over the next four years for a total of 24.1 million. Surplus value = 50 million and IMO that is way, way, way on the low side considering the player is coming off a 5+ WAR season.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11281&position=2B

 

Now let's look at Fangraphs top 131 prospect valuations:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

 

Now where does 50 million fall on that scale? It doesn't fall near the end of the top 100. It falls in the top 20. Higher than Hiura. Once a person gets past Hiura, Lutz and Ray, the Brewer don't have any single prospect left worth more than 9 million. According to their own numbers, I would think a minimum for Merrifield would be Lutz (25 million), Ray (20 million), Turang (<9 million). And honestly, I personally think Fangraphs has dramatically overvalued Lutz (I'd put his surplus value more around 12 million). If I was in KC's GM chair, a Lutz/Ray/Turang offer would go absolutely nowhere with me.

 

I really like Fangraphs stuff but sometimes really have to question what they come up with. The author should have never said a Merrifield trade starts with a back end top 100 piece. Should have said it starts with two top 90 pieces and some real quality (as in considerably better than Mauricio Dubon) beyond that. And IMO, that's a best case scenario for a team trading for Merrifield, as only having to give up 50 million in prospect surplus value would be a huge, huge bargain.

[sveumrules]

Imagine an offseason haul of Paxton, Realmuto, and Merrifield while retaining at least one of the top 3 young arms.

 

I think Ray & one of Woodruff/Peralta plus filler could be enough to get Whit.

 

Hiura paired with whoever is left from Peralta/Woodruff plus filler is probably enough for one of Paxton/Realmuto.

 

After that I just don't think there is enough left in the cupboard to land that third big piece if you are intent on keeping Burnes.

 

The more I look at trade options versus what we would need to give up, the more inclined I am to stand pat on big deals this winter.

 

Burnes, Woodruff & Peralta are all lined up to contribute in 2019 & beyond with Hiura not far behind. For me there's a big difference between trading any of those four after winning the division versus trading guys like Brinson, Harrison & Diaz who were far riskier assets while we were in a much more uncertain position on the win curve.

[wallus]

If Ray was all it took for a major piece, Merrifield would have been traded to us already.

[ewitkows]

Honestly I think Hiura can hit as well as Whit right now. I don't see the point in giving anyone up for him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Honestly I think Hiura can hit as well as Whit right now. I don't see the point in giving anyone up for him.

 

Merrifield is coming off a year where he batted .304 with a .367 OBP, an .806 OPS, 12 HRs and 45 steals. Hiura is a good prospect, but I think that's an enormous leap of faith in a guy who has never even seen a AAA pitch. Maybe Hiura's eventual ceiling is higher, but I don't know how much higher it could possibly be. Those are prime 2B offensive numbers, and are pretty much exactly what this lineup needs to be more consistent.

 

This team's window is the next 2-3 years for sure, and hopefully the next 4-5 years. Hiura fits well in the back half of that window, but the early part is iffy unless he continues his torrid Arizona Fall League hitting at AAA next year and earns a call-up. But I think we need to tap the brakes on the idea that Hiura can hit MLB pitching at an All-Star level right now. That isn't impossible, obviously, but it would be very very unlikely.

[And That]

The Royals have historically tilted pretty heavily towards the tools end of the tools-analytics continuum. I'm not saying they wouldn't be using the math when negotiating a trade, but they may value players more for different reasons. Corey Ray is a physical freak with demonstrated on the field performance and the Royals may value him with great regard much for that reason alone.

 

There is a less than 1% chance I would trade Hiura for Merrifield, and I kind of doubt the Brewers would either. The good news is, with the Royals proclivity for toolsy players, I don't think it would take Hiura to get him.

[KeithStone53151]

Hiura doesn't really profile as the type of hitter that would significantly struggle upon callup. He doesn't have glaring holes in his swing like a Brinson that will need time to adjust to MLB pitching. There are plenty of examples of elite prospects making an impact from day 1 at the mlb level. I wouldn't say it's unlikely.

 

My issue with Whit is primarily his age...and how reliant he is on speed. Shave those 45 steals down to 20 and shave 10 points off that batting average for beating out grounders with speed, still decent numbers but certainly not looking at an all-star anymore. That's what I'm seeing 2 years from now when he only has 90% of his current speed and is why I don't want to trade any of the big 3 arms or Hiura for him.

[RollieTime]

I wouldn’t be too concerned about Whit blocking Hiura at this point. I think there may be more of a push this offseason to get Braun more acclimated to first base. This would allow Merrifield to play second base until Hiura cracks the MLB roster whether that’s this season or next season. Merrifield can go to right and Yelich moves over to left. Aguilar and Braun can split time at first and Braun can fill in in the outfield when needed.

 

It would also be a nice addition to add another right handed bat that punishes lefties. He’s a career .329 hitter against lefties and would slot nicely up top with Cain and Yelich.

[KeithStone53151]

It would also be a nice addition to add another right handed bat that punishes lefties. He’s a career .329 hitter against lefties and would slot nicely up top with Cain and Yelich.

 

In the playoffs, I felt like we were a bit exposed against LHP with 2 of our better sluggers(Shaw/Moose) LHB. That dynamic changes a bit with Moose leaving, but I still like the idea of an extra bat that mashes lefties. I know Arcia and Pina actually have reverse splits and hit RHP better than LHP, doesn't leave much for guys that are better against LHP. Braun, Cain, Aguilar is about it...unless Perez is playing.