You're the Brewers GM...Your 2018 Deadline Moves are?

[trwi7]

What would it take to get Syndergaard and deGrom?

 

Asking for a friend

 

I am not asking if we should, just what it would cost...

 

Our top 20 prospects and a genie to grant a wish because that still wouldn't be enough.

[Humans Need Water]

JT Realmuto for Hiura, Ortiz, Phillips, Ponce

Dozier for Supak, Stokes Jr.

 

Realmuto seems reasonable.

 

Not a chance on Dozier. They guy is an elite offensive 2B and with Machado off the market he will still command a premium despite being a rental.

 

Dozier isn't even close to Machado's level as a rental. He's owed about $4M more this year. He is having a down year and given that Machado brought back only one top 25 organizational prospect, Supak and Stokes for Dozier is more than fair if we're taking on all Dozier's salary.

 

I like Dozier, a lot, I think he could be a really good acquisition. But no one is paying premium rental prices for 2 months of an average defensive second baseman putting up a .231/.314/.423 slash line this year.

 

We would take on the salary and then it would be a little bit more than the Ed Nothingburger that we gave up for Walker last year. I actually think Supak and Stokes is on the generous side.

Yep. Neil Walker was a more consistent hitter than Dozier over the past 7yrs or so and we gave up a bucket of paint for him. Dozier is having his worst season in the past 5yrs and is an avg offensive performer at this point with average defense. I agree he'd be my top target but he isn't costing much and it's something we can easily part with. *Elite* bat is Machado. Dozier is nowhere near that. In fact, Thames has outproduced Dozier between 2017/2018 and I don't know anybody that would call him elite.

[Humans Need Water]

Dozier isn't having a down year. He's a second half hitter and every GM knows that. Supak and Stokes will never get him.

Based on what evidence? He has his lowest BA in 5yrs, 2nd lowest OBP in 5yrs (by 7pts), lowest OPS in 5yrs, lowest OPS+ in 5yrs, -5 DRS lowest in 5yrs (Villar is 4-5 so going to Dozier is a sizable drop). GMs aren't going to adjust their offer because a dude has been great in the 2nd half the past 2yrs. 2nd half of the season counts just the same as the 1st half.

[reillymcshane]

What would it take to get Syndergaard and deGrom?

 

Asking for a friend

 

I am not asking if we should, just what it would cost...

I posted this over at the Fangraphs Value thread, and thought it would work here:

 

In Fangraphs recent Trade Value Series, they have Syndergaard, deGrom, Realmuto and Yelich all in the 20-30 range (this is their trade value, not just how good they are. The series combines a person's value on the field, the years of control remaining, the salary they will make, and comes up with a value). So if people were wondering what it would take to acquire deGrom or Syndergaard or Realmuto - what we paid for Yelich is probably a good gauge.

 

That means a top 20 guy (Brinson), another top 50-60 guy (Harrison), a 100-200 guy (Diaz), and lottery ticket (Yamamoto).

 

That probably means Hiura, Burnes, one of Ortiz/Ray/Lutz/Phillips and then a lower level (20-30 ranked guy).

 

That is just for Syndergaard OR deGrom. It's not both of them.

 

What would both take to get? Wow. That would be hard as only have one really elite prospect. But Peralta and Woodruff are still very valuable, and both have 6+ years of control left. They are more 50-100 level prospect guys - not elite like Hiura. But let's see what we could do with them in the deal:

 

Brewers get Syndergaard AND deGrom. Mets get Hiura, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff, and three (might even need to do all four) of Ortiz/Ray/Lutz/Phillips - plus a couple of lottery ticket types.

 

That would be emptying the farm system.

[Eye Black]

Well now that I am the GM here we go...

 

Hold on to Keston Hiura

 

Roll with Tyler Saladino covering Shortstop

 

Call-up Christian Betancourt for a turn on the Catcher merry-go-round

 

Trade for Brian Dozier to play Second Base (return is Jake Gatewood and one of Kodi Medeiros or Cody Ponce)

 

Trade for Madison Bumgarner to lead the rotation for 2018 and 2019 (return is Freddy Peralta, Corey Ray, Marcos Diplan, Domingo Santana)

[jonescm128]

Well now that I am the GM here we go...

 

Hold on to Keston Hiura

 

Roll with Tyler Saladino covering Shortstop

 

Call-up Christian Betancourt for a turn on the Catcher merry-go-round

 

Trade for Brian Dozier to play Second Base (return is Jake Gatewood and one of Kodi Medeiros or Cody Ponce)

 

Trade for Madison Bumgarner to lead the rotation for 2018 and 2019 (return is Freddy Peralta, Corey Ray, Marcos Diplan, Domingo Santana)

 

Not sure the Giants are selling but I like it.

[YelichPosse]

Well now that I am the GM here we go...

 

Hold on to Keston Hiura

 

Roll with Tyler Saladino covering Shortstop

 

Call-up Christian Betancourt for a turn on the Catcher merry-go-round

 

Trade for Brian Dozier to play Second Base (return is Jake Gatewood and one of Kodi Medeiros or Cody Ponce)

 

Trade for Madison Bumgarner to lead the rotation for 2018 and 2019 (return is Freddy Peralta, Corey Ray, Marcos Diplan, Domingo Santana)

 

Not sure the Giants are selling but I like it.

 

Even if the Giants arent "selling" that is a package that would/should excite them long and short term. And for Madbum, I would do that in a heartbeat. Only place I would disagree would be Betancourt - because I like me some Nottingham instead! But overall fantastic moves. Please go take over the team, thank you.

[badger3034]

Ugh, is it just me, or does anyone else really not want to give up Peralta after watching him in the bigs a few times?

[Jaylyn]

I would target Starlin Castro or Asdrúbal Cabrera for 2B upgrade. Thinking they could be gotten for a Santana+ lottery pick.

Danny Duffy from KC for Ray, Ortiz, and Derby.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Ugh, is it just me, or does anyone else really not want to give up Peralta after watching him in the bigs a few times?

 

To play devil's advocate, his value is likely at an all-time high. I like the kid too, but if he's needed as a centerpiece for an established ace, I'm thinking long and hard on it.

[Warning Track Power]

I would target Starlin Castro or Asdrúbal Cabrera for 2B upgrade. Thinking they could be gotten for a Santana+ lottery pick.

Danny Duffy from KC for Ray, Ortiz, and Derby.

WAAAAAY too much for Duffy. This time last year may have been light but he has had a down year and is expensive. If KC could get Ortiz alone and get out from under that contract I think they would be ecstatic.

[Jaylyn]

I would target Starlin Castro or Asdrúbal Cabrera for 2B upgrade. Thinking they could be gotten for a Santana+ lottery pick.

Danny Duffy from KC for Ray, Ortiz, and Derby.

WAAAAAY too much for Duffy. This time last year may have been light but he has had a down year and is expensive. If KC could get Ortiz alone and get out from under that contract I think they would be ecstatic.

WOW, just checked that Duffy contract. Still, Duffy is a good target. Perhaps that is a bit much to offer considering, but I would still make the call to see the asking price.

https://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansas-city-royals/article214905840.html

[A Swing and A Drive]

My moves as GM

 

1. Acquire RHP Marcus Stroman (controlled thru 2020) from Blue Jays for RHP Brandon Woodruff, 3B Lucas Erceg, OF Domingo Santana and RHP Marcos Diplan.

 

2. Acquire 2B Brian Dozier (rental) from Twins for RHP Luis Ortiz, RHP Cody Ponce and OF Troy Stokes Jr

 

3. Acquire RHP Nate Jones (rental) from White Sox for OF Keon Broxton and RHP Trey Supak.

 

Brewers keep blue-chippers keep Peralta, Burnes and Huira. Also future blue-chippers, Corey Ray, Tristen Lutz and Zack Brown.

 

Willing to include Brett Phillips or Trent Grisham in one of the above trades if a team prefers as well.

[82brewcrew82]

It has been a quiet deadline so far. Other than the Machado there hasn't been much scoop on anyone going anywhere.

[Ennder]

I think I'd try to trade for Kevin Gausman who seems like the next Jake Arrieta to me. For whatever reason the Orioles just can't develop pitching and I think Gausman would respond very well to a change of scenery. He is controlled through 2020 so it isn't just a rental and that is the only type of deal I'd want to give up much for.

[bill hAll Star]

Well now that I am the GM here we go...

 

Hold on to Keston Hiura

 

Roll with Tyler Saladino covering Shortstop

 

Call-up Christian Betancourt for a turn on the Catcher merry-go-round

 

Trade for Brian Dozier to play Second Base (return is Jake Gatewood and one of Kodi Medeiros or Cody Ponce)

 

Trade for Madison Bumgarner to lead the rotation for 2018 and 2019 (return is Freddy Peralta, Corey Ray, Marcos Diplan, Domingo Santana)

 

Wouldn't hurt to try, but Bethancourt also is a Colorado Springs juice stats guy.

[adambr2]

My moves as GM

 

1. Acquire RHP Marcus Stroman (controlled thru 2020) from Blue Jays for RHP Brandon Woodruff, 3B Lucas Erceg, OF Domingo Santana and RHP Marcos Diplan.

 

2. Acquire 2B Brian Dozier (rental) from Twins for RHP Luis Ortiz, RHP Cody Ponce and OF Troy Stokes Jr

 

3. Acquire RHP Nate Jones (rental) from White Sox for OF Keon Broxton and RHP Trey Supak.

 

Brewers keep blue-chippers keep Peralta, Burnes and Huira. Also future blue-chippers, Corey Ray, Tristen Lutz and Zack Brown.

 

Willing to include Brett Phillips or Trent Grisham in one of the above trades if a team prefers as well.

 

People are giving up wayyy too much for Dozier. That's closer to a Machado offer than a Dozier rental offer.

 

Jones seems pretty fair but he's got a WHIP of almost 1.40 and has been really lucky this year. Plus he may not be back before August.

 

Stroman seems like a nice buy low right now but he's been so bad this year he may not help much for this season.

[KeithStone53151]

My moves as GM

 

1. Acquire RHP Marcus Stroman (controlled thru 2020) from Blue Jays for RHP Brandon Woodruff, 3B Lucas Erceg, OF Domingo Santana and RHP Marcos Diplan.

 

2. Acquire 2B Brian Dozier (rental) from Twins for RHP Luis Ortiz, RHP Cody Ponce and OF Troy Stokes Jr

 

3. Acquire RHP Nate Jones (rental) from White Sox for OF Keon Broxton and RHP Trey Supak.

 

Brewers keep blue-chippers keep Peralta, Burnes and Huira. Also future blue-chippers, Corey Ray, Tristen Lutz and Zack Brown.

 

Willing to include Brett Phillips or Trent Grisham in one of the above trades if a team prefers as well.

 

People are giving up wayyy too much for Dozier. That's closer to a Machado offer than a Dozier rental offer.

 

Jones seems pretty fair but he's got a WHIP of almost 1.40 and has been really lucky this year. Plus he may not be back before August.

 

Stroman seems like a nice buy low right now but he's been so bad this year he may not help much for this season.

 

Stroman, that's about what I'd expect to pay if he was performing well...not now with his stock way down.

 

Jones probably doesn't cost that much. He'd be a rental and not that much different from probably a dozen other available relievers. Supply/Demand probably puts his cost similar to Swarzak last year. Maybe Broxton straight for Jones or someone like Tyrone Taylor.

 

Yeah Dozier...he's a rental that isn't playing well. I'm not sure I would completely bank on a big 2nd half. I know he's done it the last 2 years, but that's far from a guarantee. That cost is probably about 70-80% of what Machado got. There also aren't a ton of teams that need a 2b only guy. Maybe Cleveland if they punt on Kipnis. Maybe Philly I guess but they'll probably target someone for SS or 3B. I'd honestly look at Eduardo Nunez and Lucroy's 2017 deal as comps for what Dozier might be able to get...and it isn't much.

[MrTPlush]

Dozier isn't having a down year. He's a second half hitter and every GM knows that. Supak and Stokes will never get him.

Based on what evidence? He has his lowest BA in 5yrs, 2nd lowest OBP in 5yrs (by 7pts), lowest OPS in 5yrs, lowest OPS+ in 5yrs, -5 DRS lowest in 5yrs (Villar is 4-5 so going to Dozier is a sizable drop). GMs aren't going to adjust their offer because a dude has been great in the 2nd half the past 2yrs. 2nd half of the season counts just the same as the 1st half.

 

The 1st half is meaningless because you will never have him in the first half and didn’t this year. All that matters is that he is good till the end of the year. So no, I don’t agree with your claim because he is a rental. If he wasn’t, sure, makes sense.

 

Now I don’t know if GMs are going to take and run with the 2nd half player stuff. I don’t think the offers will reflect that fully, but certainly won’t be cheap cheap (like Walker).

[long ball]

I think it's pretty well established that the biggest areas of opportunity are at 2b, ss, C, and SP. This is what I'd look for:

 

SP: I'd stand pat unless they're able to swing a trade for deGrom or Sydergaard. I don't see the Mets trading either this year so standing pat and stay the course with the current group makes the most sense. I don't really see any of the other potentially available arms are upgrades over the current group of guys.

 

2b/SS: I'll lump these together because I don't see them adding multiple middle infielders. I'd like someone who has played SS competently recently, but I can live with Saladino and Arcia being the primary SS for the remainder of the season if they're able to add a good bat at second. Main targets ranked in order: Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Asdrubal Cabrera. and Solarte.

 

C: I think they should ride out Pina as the primary starter. His defense is good and he seems to work well with all of the starters. I can live with Kratz as the primary back up, but would definitely pursue another guy to share time with Pina in a 60/40 type split like Ellis or Meseraco. I previously like the idea of targeting Ramos to be the primary catcher, but the injury scares me off.

 

RP: I would try to double down on the strength of the bullpen. Guys like Hader, Knebel, Jeffress, Jennings, and Williams are seemingly entrenched in the pen. If Albers comes back from this injury he is there too. That leaves probably one spot to potentially add a significant piece to the pen. Someone like Familia or Britton. If it's not a clear cut upgrade I probably roll with group of Barnes, Burnes, Miley, Davies, Peralta, Woodruff, etc as the as the 7th/8th guy in the pen and 5th starter.

 

Bench: Someone like Dietrich would make sense only if they're going to punt on Perez. Probably just hope to get healthier and get Braun back and hope Santana can come back and be useful. Mercer or another SS makes sense if you're punting on Arcia in 2018.

 

August trade: Soria makes sense as an August target if he's still available. High salary and veteran arm having a useful season. Makes more sense to add a depth type arm heading into September when rosters expand.

 

 

Overall I think they add 1 primary starter at either SS or 2b. 1 additional bat whether it be a C or utility type. I also think they add a bullpen arm in August.

[And That]

Trade for Brian Dozier to play Second Base (return is Jake Gatewood and one of Kodi Medeiros or Cody Ponce)

This is probably the closest I've seen to what a Dozier deal should look like. I don't think the Twins are going to get a huge premium on "second half Dozier." I wouldn't even say Ponce or Medeiros, my offer would be Gatewood, Ponce, and a long-shot. Jon Perrin, Brad Kuntz or Jorge Ortega maybe.

[82brewcrew82]

Trade for Brian Dozier to play Second Base (return is Jake Gatewood and one of Kodi Medeiros or Cody Ponce)

This is probably the closest I've seen to what a Dozier deal should look like. I don't think the Twins are going to get a huge premium on "second half Dozier." I wouldn't even say Ponce or Medeiros, my offer would be Gatewood, Ponce, and a long-shot. Jon Perrin, Brad Kuntz or Jorge Ortega maybe.

That sounds right to me. I wouldn't give Medeiros there.

[Warning Track Power]

Trade for Brian Dozier to play Second Base (return is Jake Gatewood and one of Kodi Medeiros or Cody Ponce)

This is probably the closest I've seen to what a Dozier deal should look like. I don't think the Twins are going to get a huge premium on "second half Dozier." I wouldn't even say Ponce or Medeiros, my offer would be Gatewood, Ponce, and a long-shot. Jon Perrin, Brad Kuntz or Jorge Ortega maybe.

I like that trade infinitely more than my own deal of Santana for Dozier straight up. I would love to get this done today and have Dozier against the Dodgers.

[And That]

*I should have said 40-man long-shot. All three "long shots" I mentioned would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft in December. Plus obviously, Gatewood and Ponce are, too.

[Humans Need Water]

Dozier isn't having a down year. He's a second half hitter and every GM knows that. Supak and Stokes will never get him.

Based on what evidence? He has his lowest BA in 5yrs, 2nd lowest OBP in 5yrs (by 7pts), lowest OPS in 5yrs, lowest OPS+ in 5yrs, -5 DRS lowest in 5yrs (Villar is 4-5 so going to Dozier is a sizable drop). GMs aren't going to adjust their offer because a dude has been great in the 2nd half the past 2yrs. 2nd half of the season counts just the same as the 1st half.

 

The 1st half is meaningless because you will never have him in the first half and didn’t this year. All that matters is that he is good till the end of the year. So no, I don’t agree with your claim because he is a rental. If he wasn’t, sure, makes sense.

 

Now I don’t know if GMs are going to take and run with the 2nd half player stuff. I don’t think the offers will reflect that fully, but certainly won’t be cheap cheap (like Walker).

People are saying his value is still AS level because he's performed great the second half of the previous 2yrs, which neglects his *current* performance. That's not how it works. Your value doesn't stay AS level if you're not hitting anywhere near what you did the prior 2yrs when you actually were an AS level hitter. The first half is meaningless? What you're saying is that Machado could have hit like Arcia and he would have brought back the same package. That doesn't make any sense.