Trade Value Series from Fangraphs

[Eye Black]

For more than a decade Fangraphs Trade Value rankings were complied annually by Dave Cameron. With Cameron now with the Padres the exercise is now led by Kiley McDaniel. It is always an intriguing exercise that combines player value with team control and overall contract/salary owed to determine each players trade value. They gather feedback from several industry sources while they compile the list. It also includes consideration of the current trade value of top prospects. The individual rankings are certainly debatable, but it is a interesting way to compare players.

 

They have an honorable mention category followed by unveiling the top 50 in increments of 10. As they release each update I will link them in this initial post and list which Brewers are included.

 

Honorable Mentions: Josh Hader, Jesús Aguilar

 

#41 to #50: No current Brewers, former Brewers SS Jean Segura (#49)

 

#31 to #40: No current Brewers, former Brewers prospect Mitch Haniger (#33)

 

#21 to #30: Christian Yelich (#22)

 

#11 to #20: No Brewers

 

#1 to #10: No Brewers

 

 

Using this same concept I would be curious to see someone take a stab at ranking the top ten players in the Brewers organization in terms of current trade value? Yelich would have to be #1, but then I think the next pool of players would include Hader, Aguilar, Hiura, Shaw, Knebel, and Cain (even with the salary/age). In my opinion it gets difficult after that point.

[Bulldogboy]

Knebel??

[JCREW]

Using this same concept I would be curious to see someone take a stab at ranking the top ten players in the Brewers organization in terms of current trade value? Yelich would have to be #1, but then I think the next pool of players would include Hader, Aguilar, Hiura, Shaw, Knebel, and Cain (even with the salary/age). In my opinion it gets difficult after that point.

 

This would be right up JosephC's alley. It has a lot to do with projected WAR and surplus value.

 

I'd add Burnes and Peralta to your "pool."

[sveumrules]

Brewers Top 10 Trade Value is probably somethink like this...

 

Yelich

Hader

Aguilar

Hiura

Burnes

Peralta

Shaw

Knebel

Cain

Woodruff

 

I think the top 8 is pretty clear, then there are a bunch of guys in contention for the 9-10 spots.

 

Cain is interesting as he's older & on a "market rate" deal. At the same time he's on pace for around 6 WAR this year. Even an aggressive aging curve of 1.5 WAR decline per year would put him at 8.5 WAR over the next four seasons. With 66 million due over that same time frame I'd imagine there's still maybe about 20 millionish in surplus value there.

 

Then at ten I went with Woodruff but a solid case could probably be made for Ortiz or Ray as other decently regarded prospects with high minors success or maybe even Maverick or Keon as MLB ready OFs with years of control. Suter could be another possibility, though his lack of top end stuff has always seemed to limit his valuation.

[Eye Black]

Just updated the link for the newly released list which includes Mitch Haniger at #33.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Yelich clocks in at 22 due to a combo of contract, production, and the recent trade setting the market. Kind of a good news/bad news depending on where you sit re: prospects.

 

Not to revisit the Yelich trade, but I love having that guy penciled in for the next 5 yrs.

[trwi7]

Weird, Haniger is a better hitter, equal defender, under control for the same length and cheaper than Yelich and comes in 11 spots behind him.

[istanbultaye]

He's about 340 days older. That's probably the issue, right?

[markedman5]

He also has less of a track record. Only 224 games at major league level vs 725 for Yelich.

[Eye Black]

Yelich clocks in at 22 due to a combo of contract, production, and the recent trade setting the market. Kind of a good news/bad news depending on where you sit re: prospects.

 

Not to revisit the Yelich trade, but I love having that guy penciled in for the next 5 yrs.

I updated the links at the top. Christian Yelich moved up five spots from his ranking last year, from #27 to #22. I was a little surprised to see Yelich's former teammate J.T. Realmuto only two spots behind him this year at #24. Realmuto wasn't ranked in the trade value series last year.

[Ennder]

Weird, Haniger is a better hitter, equal defender, under control for the same length and cheaper than Yelich and comes in 11 spots behind him.

 

Yelich is more durable, is a much better baserunner and is a better fielder unless it just fell off completely this year. Haniger is a clear below average defensive player, I still think Yelich is a positive. Haniger is also a year older than Yelich.

[trwi7]

Weird, Haniger is a better hitter, equal defender, under control for the same length and cheaper than Yelich and comes in 11 spots behind him.

 

Yelich is more durable, is a much better baserunner and is a better fielder unless it just fell off completely this year. Haniger is a clear below average defensive player, I still think Yelich is a positive. Haniger is also a year older than Yelich.

 

He's a better baserunner and that's about it. Haniger and Yelich are pretty much the same defensively. Good in the corners, bad in center. Age doesn't make a difference when it's a year and both are controlled through their primes and Haniger will be cheaper through his prime which gives him extra value that Yelich doesn't have.

[sveumrules]

I'd guess track record might give Yelich the edge.

 

Haniger has 800 PAs of top level performance. He has yet to qualify for a batting title in any single season. He looks to be the real deal, but there's still some volatility there.

 

Yelich has been doing what he does pretty consistently for over 3,000 PAs so I'd imagine the error bars around his future projections are much narrower.

[reillymcshane]

As a note, Syndergaard, deGrom, Realmuto and Yelich all land in this 20-30 range. So if people were wondering what it would take to acquire any of these players in a deal - what we paid for Yelich is probably a good gauge.

 

That means a top 20 guy (Brinson), another top 50-60 guy (Harrison), a 100-200 guy (Diaz), and lottery ticket (Yamamoto).

 

That probably means Hiura, Burnes, one of Ortiz/Ray/Lutz/Phillips and then a lower level (20-30 ranked guy).

 

Just saying.

[splitterpfj]

As a note, Syndergaard, deGrom, Realmuto and Yelich all land in this 20-30 range. So if people were wondering what it would take to acquire any of these players in a deal - what we paid for Yelich is probably a good gauge.

 

That means a top 20 guy (Brinson), another top 50-60 guy (Harrison), a 100-200 guy (Diaz), and lottery ticket (Yamamoto).

 

That probably means Hiura, Burnes, one of Ortiz/Ray/Lutz/Phillips and then a lower level (20-30 ranked guy).

 

Just saying.

 

Yes it does, and since the competition for pitching is always steep, I wouldn't be surprised if the price went up just a bit.

 

With that in mind, I suggested Burnes, Huira, Ray, and one of Ortiz/Peralta/Woodruff in the trade rumors forum - possibly with Asdrubal Cabrera also coming to Milwaukee.

[Ennder]

The Mets also aren't motivated to sell the way the Marlins were. The price is probably quite a bit higher than what we payed for Yelich.

[Eye Black]

The top ten came out today. The Indians had players take the #2 and #1 spots. The #1 highest trade value in baseball was bestowed upon infielder José Ramírez.

 

Whether or not Ramírez should be number one may be debatable, but what isn't is how good of an underdog story he has become. He wasn't signed as a 16-year old out of the Dominican Republic. He was noticed by an Indians scout when he was 17 and signed for $50,000. Despite hitting success throughout the minors, to my knowledge he never appeared on a single top 100 prospect list. As he was coming through the Indians system he was overshadowed by infielders Francisco Lindor, Dorssys Paulino, and Ronny Rodriguez. He reportedly stands just 5'9", yet he has developed incredible power that now at age 25 seems to only be getting better.

[Warning Track Power]

As a note, Syndergaard, deGrom, Realmuto and Yelich all land in this 20-30 range. So if people were wondering what it would take to acquire any of these players in a deal - what we paid for Yelich is probably a good gauge.

 

That means a top 20 guy (Brinson), another top 50-60 guy (Harrison), a 100-200 guy (Diaz), and lottery ticket (Yamamoto).

 

That probably means Hiura, Burnes, one of Ortiz/Ray/Lutz/Phillips and then a lower level (20-30 ranked guy).

 

Just saying.

Sign me up for Hiura, Burnes, Lutz and a #20-#30 ranked player for Syndergaard or deGrom. Would sting but yes the Brewers need the TOR SP that bad.

[snoogans8056]

As a note, Syndergaard, deGrom, Realmuto and Yelich all land in this 20-30 range. So if people were wondering what it would take to acquire any of these players in a deal - what we paid for Yelich is probably a good gauge.

 

That means a top 20 guy (Brinson), another top 50-60 guy (Harrison), a 100-200 guy (Diaz), and lottery ticket (Yamamoto).

 

That probably means Hiura, Burnes, one of Ortiz/Ray/Lutz/Phillips and then a lower level (20-30 ranked guy).

 

Just saying.

Sign me up for Hiura, Burnes, Lutz and a #20-#30 ranked player for Syndergaard or deGrom. Would sting but yes the Brewers need the TOR SP that bad.

Adding Lutz to that is making it sting waaaaay more than it has to. Dude is mashing right now and will probably be our top prospect at some point. He’s probably the only real untouchable guy we have IMO just because his value is apparently precieved as a throw in to that deal.

[Eye Black]

Putting a bow on this, below are the standings of which teams had players represented in the top 50. The total score represents each player being assigned a point value from 50 to 1 based on their ranking position (i.e. #1 player equals 50 points).

 

 

 

 

Teams that had zero players in the top 50 were Baltimore, Chicago (AL), Kansas City, Detroit, Texas, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Colorado.

[Ennder]

The nice part of that graph is the Cubs aren't in the top 7 and 2 of their 3 players on the list are going down and not up.